So …
• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.
• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.
• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.
UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.
UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.
UPDATE 5: A late situation report.
New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.
Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.
Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.
Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.
South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.
Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.
Traveller.
I value other people’s opinions. It broadens my perspective. My opinion at this point, is that NSW is concerning me greatly. As I am from Victoria, I can only gauge opinions from those living in these parts.
I have maintained all along that Labor would win with 80 seats. At moment, doubts are creeping into my mind.
[@Pollytics TEN news has a 28,000 sample JWS robocall poll – details at 6.]
I’ll be largely ignoring it based on their previous effort.
[Dammuz re donkey vote I remember an article many years ago which talked about 2-3 per cent as I recall, depending on electorate.]
It just is not that high IMO. I looked at the 2007 results and there are several seats where some nonentity drew top of the paper and polled well below 2% including their own non-donkey votes, in some cases below 1% even.
My Dad today goes ‘I might stock up my beers tonight’ so I go ‘you might also want to stock up on your drugs also for tonight’. Dad who has type two diabeties goes why, and I said because under Tony Abbott you may not be able to afford them anymore.
[Garret won the daceyville booth by 32 votes in 2007.]
Which one, RU? There are two, either side of Banks Avenue,and less than 100 metres apart. Don’t tell Tone, though. More waste…
[In terms of the number of bets, the flow has apparently been a torrent of smaller ones for the coalition.]
Would that be the two bob capitalists having a flutter?
[Labor vote is holding up in Qld and most marginals in NSW.
Strong, almost implausible, swings to Labor in SA and Vic.
Not much movement in WA, but still early there obviously.]
Darren — is this your opinion or do you have inside info?
789 My rocket man…
I couldn´t agree more with you… Anyways, I do believe that in the anxiety we are living, in this borderline election we are having, we´d have a rather long conversation on this topic. If you notice a previous entry of mine, when I read aloud the different ALP losers, I didn´t mention Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, I do respect them. Judgements should never be absolute, pro´s and cons should always be analyzed. After the passion of the election is gone, we can always discuss history !
[The Queensland Labor Party has made a formal complaint to the electoral commission after discovering Liberal National-Party supporters dressed in T-shirts with Greens slogans at polling booths in the seat of Ryan.]
They obviously got the idea from the SA Labor Party. The hypocrisy is amazing.
where are the fib triumphalists
[762
BlueSkies
Posted Saturday, August 21, 2010 at 1:12 pm | Permalink
Liberal Party of Australia, since 1949, 42 years in office, 19 years in opposition, I guess it hurts, my dear ALP antagonists.]
It’s not quantity that matters, it’s quality. All that Libs do is sit on the money and guard it, like it’s their money. Labor on the other hand use it for the people and for the good of the country. Go and check your history.
gusface
welcome
my guts are in a knot.
I have this feeling that history is about to repeat itself, after a fashion anyway, and we will see a Liberal elected on Green preferences in a last-chance marginal Brisbane-based electorate in Queensland; a Liberal climate change sceptic will win with a bare handful of Green votes and a minority Liberal Government will come to power, more convinced than ever that the right thing to do about climate change is to deny, dissemble, defer and defeat….The Greens will achieve the balance of power from July 2011, by which time it will be worth very little at all, the new government having a good six months in which to enact anything it likes.
[In the queues for Ryan in QLD today, there for 30 minutes, did not see a single person even take an ALP how to vote card. Conversation in the queue about Tony coming home. Not very surprising though, a pretty Lib booth.]
Stirring again, I see.
Roy Orbison
[St Michael’s Parish Hall]
Hearing good news on the ground from QLD Labor, no exit polling or hard data, just word on some good vibes from the ground crew.
Hartcher in SMH gets front page; decent summary actually.
States:
“the preponderance of credible, objective evidence is that Labor will win, narrowly.”
Quotes John Stirton from Nielsen and also Andrew Catsaras. Both say Labor will win, narrowly. Catsaras says 1-4 seats. It’s all about probability.
As I posted elsewhere, mathematically it’s insulting to think that most marginal seats will go all one way.
If they did, I might as well always call Heads in a multiple Two-Up game.
Darren Laver @ 772
[Labor vote is holding up in Qld and most marginals in NSW.
Strong, almost implausible, swings to Labor in SA and Vic.
Not much movement in WA, but still early there obviously.]
Oh how I hope you are right. Where does this info come from?
[753
rainsinger
briefly @ 728, I did hear from a family friend in Melbourne, that there was rather a nasty public spat between Family First and the Greens at a downtown polling station in Melbourne?]
I would pay good money to watch that!
Nothing much happening at betfair
Well guys I gonna take a break from this politics talk and play some starcraft, till nearing poll counting starts.
I hope the news from QLD is true!
betfair $3.00 lib
i reckon the election will be called at 8.05pm
gillard returned with an increased majority
Thank you, David Stephens. Looking into it …
@814
Yes, stirring obviously.
Ryan is a Liberal seat which few have predicted to change.
Just voted Canterbury Public (Grayndler). 2 ALP 1 Greens 1 Lib – 4 workers and I think 4 posters. All out spend in this seat at a booth that Labor won with 79% of the vote. Interesting to see if the Green vote goes forward this time or backwards like last time in this electorate.
So we’ve got a Liberal supporter claiming Labors vote has collapsed in NSW and Qld, a Labor supporter claiming it’s holding up. Can I just say the Greens vote is surging in NSW and Queensland according to my sources? 😉
@800 David Stephens
Thanks, that is much like i thought. As previously ballott papers just had name no parties.
Cheers
Question:
If labor win tonight, will the celebrations be better than 2007? I say HELL YES!
Anyone get a free sausage at their booth today? First election I’ve been to where I haven’t got one. And I’ve voted in 5 different electorates.
Devastated.
[They obviously got the idea from the SA Labor Party. The hypocrisy is amazing.]
I don’t see you criticising them. I’m not. I’m consistent.
Hey Bludgers,
I have been away for a while. Can anybody give me a summary of the feeling, whispers, rumours, exit polls or word from the booths?
Apeman – not by a long shot, IMO.
Apeman, I’ll go ape!
Thanks Vic,
I hope you won’t think my comment impertinent. It’s you Vics who may just save this damned election for us.
On a purely precautionary basis a bottle of bubbly has just gone into the fridge.
Liar Alert for Booth campaigners:
At Merrivale (Warrnambool Wannon) School, three large posters in bold red were on the fence claiming, “Today the Government borrowed another $100 million”. It has no written and authorised by although it does list the printer.
I was busy with cab business but when I spotted it and read it I shouted out to all and sundry that those posters were unauthorised and illegal and they should notify the returning officer to remove.
I took a look at other booths around Warrnambool after that. No sign of the offending poster. Maybe Labor volunteers had already complained.
Watch out for it at a booth near you.
The LNP in the Brisbane Seat of Ryan had a guy at at least one booth dressed in a green t-shirt with the words “Green Voter?” on the front, no LNP identification on the shirt, handing out how-to-votes on green paper urging voters to put Labour last. Authorised by M O’Dwyer, LNP. Interestingly, he persisted even when one of the Green booth workers stood beside him and advised every person he handed a HTV to that he did not represent the Greens and it was LNP material…
[Apeman – not by a long shot, IMO.]
Hey glory, I was partying hard in 2007 until Rudds dreary victory speech – what a mood killer
2007 was a party for 6.01pm. This year will take longer, and there will be a big sigh of relief… then a party.
blue-green,
‘All over the place’ best sums it up.
i meant FROM 6.01pm.
Keep the faith Gusface — I’m with you!
Itep – In other words we are all cheering for our respective teams.
810 adam abdool
It´s your vision man, in a democracy thanks God we have different viewpoints, the undeniable fact is that we Libs have won twice the amount the elections that you have… nobody obliged the Australian electorate to do such thing, voluntarily and consciously they made a decision for the collective good.
The fact is that tonight we shall know if for the first time in nearly 80 years a first term ALP government is thrown out… blame only lies on you blokes… you should have thought better before executing Kevin… With Rudd, you might have won today.
#
[760
confessions
I wonder if there is any feedback from Labor people from polling places in NSW and QLD – has anyone seen any baseball bats?
Or boats? Especially the folks in Lindsay who are supposed to be wary of them.]
lol
Gary
[I don’t see you criticising them. I’m not. I’m consistent.]
I think they shouldn’t do it just the same as Labor shoudln’t do it. It should be illegal.
[Anyone get a free sausage at their booth today? First election I’ve been to where I haven’t got one. And I’ve voted in 5 different electorates.]
Never a free lunch here. The school I went to the vote (Oatley Waste Public) are selling then, proceeds to buy a interactive whiteboard apparently…
i want pink bats lol
[And I’ve voted in 5 different electorates.]
Not all today, I hope 🙂
If so, I admire your persistence, so I promise to come visit you in gaol.