The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
Gusface@3385
And cue the Brothers Gibb:-)
Both songs are rather appropriate 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gNGBshO6H0
On the broncos town hall debate. Only queenslanders will be paying attention. Therefore a draw favours Gillard. It helps her minimise swings against in QLD.
Boew
pwease gwive teddy a kwiss
he deswerves it
ps
also bwluey
Oh yes fibre is actually very cheap to lay,cheaper than copper.
It is immune to electro-magnetic interference and much more resistant to water damage.
And of course the distance that thie signal can be carried from the exchange is that much further.
IMHO @ 3344
The weekday 8.30 – 9.00 RN programs (Rear Vision, Future Tense?) are top notch, I reckon. The program this morning swung me over to the merits of a stright carbon tax rather than ‘cap & trade’
Generic Person, you of course are fully qualified and are in possession of all the facts, that is ALL the facts of the network, to make one of ‘the’ absurd statements I have seen.
You really are in this blog for the thrill aren’t you, the excitement, the grab, the surge, you need help mate…
[In ten years time, assuming Labor got to build the NBN, I’ll be in my thirties, the NBN will still be unfinished and it will be running overbudget by tens of billions with a take-up rate of 33%.]
In ten years time you may be dead.
Tasmania rolled out 10% underbudget and 100 times faster.
Wireless can’t ever replace fibre optics. Nothing is faster than light.
Maybe once you have some life experience you will understand a bit better.
Your ages says anything anyone needs to know about you…
Gusface/Frank
“Age of Consent”?
I have more questions than before.
Never mind.
I presume Abbott just gave the audience another hour of his endless slogans!
He really is a very unattractive, odious individual.
Oh dear.. Tony smith lying about basic physics, yet again.
Frank,
Thanks for making me listen to that terrible song. I feel violated.
So how do the lyrics relate to the Tony Abbott bombshell?
[The age of consent has crept up beside you
And now is the time to make your mind about love
The girl that was you is suddenly fading
And there in her place a woman to love and desire
Age of consent the right to say yes the right to say no
Age of consent now you’re a woman girl has to go]
Vic
ask again and the shield goes up
andrew crossed thr ubicon.dont you
*the choice is yours*
Has anybody worked out how many fewer Nationals will be left standing after the weekend? The good thing about modern elections is that by the Nats continuing to die out the Tory scare campaigns are losing their clout. Boats aren’t as scary as reds under beds.
[In fact, after the investment in Tasmania which connected 1500 houses to fibre, only 70 people signed up. Yes, just 70 people. Lots of waste there.]
You really are a dim one arent you?? Even if this statement had been true, at some point after the fibre rollout is done, the copper comes out. Then, your either on a mobile phone, or you go on the NBN, or you do without.
So actually, the take up will be 100%.
[Your ages says anything anyone needs to know about you…]
No ageism please.
Leave Wyatt alone.
[3118
Bushfire Bill
GFC scenario under Rudd-Gillard:
250,000 jobs saved, debt small, economy the envy of the world.
and if we’d lost the election…
GFC Scenario under Howard-Costello:
WorkChoices still in, hundreds of thousands sacked, Australia the cesspit of the world.
Thank God for 2007.]
Absolutely spot on, BB.
One more street to the south and I’d be in Bennelong. We’re in the last street of Ruddock Land.
I share your prayer.
blue-green
one thing is for sure. A song like that today would be deemed sick and twisted!!
Society sure has changed in forty years. Thank goodness!!!
One of my favourite questions to conservatives is:
“Do you think Nokia is an impressive state of the art multinational company?”
Usually the answer is yes.
Then the follow up is:
“Did you know that Finland, the home of Nokia is the home to just four million people and is 75% unionised?”
The answer is usually just a blank stare.
GG
[In a weeks time the Libs will be supporting the NBN]
By the 2016 election campaign, they could be saying it was their idea!
[Wireless can’t ever replace fibre optics. Nothing is faster than light.]
The issue is not so much the speed as the overall volume of data. Optic fibre can carry orders of magnitude more data than wireless ever can, and far more cheaply and reliably.
Gusface
That song has scarred me. I don’t want to know anything.
In ten years time you will be voting on line and this blog will be a live video debate delivered via a fast optical fibre broad band
Gusface – what the….?
It seems a lot of people like em hung
Windsor would welcome hung parliament
So the titilating tidbits of transparent tattle telling trumpeted by Gusface and Frank are hinting at some inside knowledge of a child sex scandal involving a senior office holder of which party?
@3415
[Leave Wyatt alone.]
Agreed, we should give young people more respect.
However, its his choice of party that causes me to doubt him 🙂
I love these latest Centrebet odds for Eden Monaro:
LABOR 1.25
LIBS 4.10
I guess they aren’t frightened of boat people on the far South Coast of NSW. 😀
ABC on-line
[Gillard carves out victory in Wednesday roast
By Tim Leslie
Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott have again faced voters in the second public forum of the election campaign, held in Brisbane’s inner-west on Wednesday night.
In an audience poll conducted after the event, the Prime Minister emerged the winner 83 votes to the Opposition Leader’s 75.]
Victoria,
Its like Evie but with a more painful melody
[You got the body of a woman, the way you move it like a queen
You got the face to raise a riot, and still you’re only seventeen
But little girl you’re oh so shy, you hardly make a sou-ou-ound
Come on babe you know there ain’t no time to mess around (round, round, round, round)]
2637
[Laboratory technician. first time ever I’m questioning my loyalty to the Labor party because you haven’t listened to us in QLD]
Actually I think he was dinkum, George, maybe with grievances about Bligh. He was interviewed in TEN’s late news and asked his opinion and who he’d be voting for. He answered, Gillard was better and he’d vote Labor.
[The issue is not so much the speed as the overall volume of data. Optic fibre can carry orders of magnitude more data than wireless ever can, and far more cheaply and reliably.]
Correct. And for those here who don’t understand enough about why the NBN will be very important for any nation, look up distributed computing and how critical it (is) and will be to science and technology industries
Of course Windsor would welcome a hung parliament because then the outliers of parliament become the kingmakers.
[Agreed, we should give young people more respect.
However, its his choice of party that causes me to doubt him ]
GP is willing to make his argument here. It should be welcomed.
blue-green
no more outdated lyrics. they are hurting my ears!!
Evan @3428 I’d say they’re more scared of Abbott’s public service cuts
I agree Country Kid,
There seemed to be a better argument for and results from the Carbon Tax implementations than from the suggested Cap & Trade of the US.
One more street to the south and I’d be in Bennelong. We’re in the last street of [Ruddock Land.
I share your prayer.]
Bushfire Bill: I’m over in Thornleigh.
I used to be in Ruddock Land, but a fair part of Thornleigh has been shifted into Bradfield, so I’ve now got Paul Fletcher as my M.P.
I think Abbott’s taunting of Julia to face the voters of Qld was a tactical error. He may have got all the roots at Rooty last time but there was no way she was going to make the same errors again.
This time she got credit for standing up and taking the hard questions.
I thought the good folks of BrisVegas were far more respectful than the Rooters.
May be the maroon hair has an affinity with them.
Oh, and I really think its time for a new poll so we can discuss something of import.
F[So the titilating tidbits of transparent tattle telling trumpeted by Gusface and Frank are hinting at some inside knowledge of a child sex scandal involving a senior office holder of which party]
woah there
I have not said nothing and neither has frank
i think some peeps want to see more
Interesting SMH online pic selection …
Evan14 Abbott did have a couple of gems – peak oil is crap – there is much more oil there than you think,
And the problem with fibre is that you are hooked into a wall.
But there will be more fibre under a coalition govt. We think he was talking diets at this stage.
I think abbott is like W – for the libs not necessarily a term of abuse. The advisors probably have tried to brief him many times on broadband or the economy but it isn’t retained.
[Laboratory technician. first time ever I’m questioning my loyalty to the Labor party because you haven’t listened to us in QLD]
He Gorgeous, i wasn’t questioning anything, the second part was the guy’s question
Tom @3429, doncha just love the intellectual giants in the press.
Right conclusion wrong reason 🙂
Gusface
I hazard a guess it is someone from WA
Centrebet for La Trobe:
Libs 1.75
ALP 1.97
He = Hey
RootyQ with 83 Gillard and 75 Abbott when moved to a percentage is 52.5% Vs 47.5% (using the total votes cast of 158 as the baseline).
Remarkably consistent numbers that…..Gillard did a solid job and won.
[timdunlop Media too scared to praise Labor so concludes Gillard less awful than last time. No clear winner. #praisewithdeniabilityifaccusedofbias about 2 hours ago via Chromed Bird ]
Spot on comment from Tim Dunlop.
BTW – Aristotle was good on Australia Talks Back. He makes so much sense and I wonder whether the ABC presenters realise how dumb they sound about polling.
It was a far better way of spending an hour than watching Tone altho I grabbed bits here and there.