The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
#3426
[ So the titilating tidbits of transparent tattle telling trumpeted by Gusface and Frank are hinting at some inside knowledge of a child sex scandal involving a senior office holder of which party?
]
Old news. The guys currently doing a 12 year stretch.
If the ALP win this weekend, and the NBN rollout continues, it will be interesting to see if having a network of that quality and speed available becomes a factor in whether or not Australia gets the Square Kilometer Array??
May actually be a big factor in our favor.
fulvio
Please, no such offence has been raised
franks linking to a song may have more to do with consent than anything else
My “bombshell’ relates directly to nauru and ahem financial transactions and loan promises
BUT I CANT PROVE SHITE
victoria@3445
Erm No 🙂
Try someone who holds family values dear to his heart and has an issue with handling the family budget 🙂
John
Last year at the sydneys Writers festival Abbott didn’t even know what ‘peak oil’ was
I bet the MSM will conveniently bury Julia’s victory tomorrow – they are so transparent.
ABC NEWS 24 had to stack their panel with a Liberal spin doctor and David Burchill.
Re Robb hating on and refusing to work with Treasury – easy answer, Treasury no longer has Godwin Grech in it.
bg,
Interesting word consent.
The song Frank referred to was from 1969 and probably a little risque. However, at that time the right to vote was 21 years old.
I’d also say my mother could not come to Australia before she turned 21 (the age of consent) because her parents refused permission.
I’ve got teenagers that ring me from all over the world. I’ve never been asked whether they could go.
The meaning of the word has altered somewhat.
Gusface
It relates to mesma then. She being from WA
[GP is willing to make his argument here. It should be welcomed.]
Unfortunately he is an all to vivid reminder of the fact that the Liberal Party, including its youth wing, have been taken over by the crazies.
I loved Tony’s peak oil answer.
“They say there are only 20 years of oil left and then in 20 years they again say there is 20 years of oil left”
In other words Oil is an unlimited resource.
Once we get the technology to drill for oil past the core of the earth the sky is the limit!
[BTW – Aristotle was good on Australia Talks Back. He makes so much sense and I wonder whether the ABC presenters realise how dumb they sound about polling.]
Seriously, this is one of the benefits of the internet age. The emergence of a wider range of talented analysts and commentators and view points, who previously would have had no chance to be heard.
Gruen was surprisingly good tonight.
Two negatives make a positive, Gus. Me thinks the lady doth protest too much! 🙂
[Square Kilometer Array]
imacca, aren’t we already part of this
Was The Chaser any good tonight?
I avoided it, after last week’s rather lame effort.
Anyone see lateline and have a summary? thanks
Imagine the reaction if Julia said, “$100,000 a year is not rich”.
Queensland 3-2-1
NSW 3-2-1
Vic 3-3 or 3-2-1 or 2-3-1
SA 2-3-1
WA 3-2-1
Tas 2-3-1
NT 1-0
ACT 0-1
[Gruen was surprisingly good tonight.]
I thought so.
Frank
Your bombshell is different to Gusface I gather?
You are obviously referring to the Rabbott and Gusface is referring to deals being made with Nauru most likely by Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop.
Saen, Maybe it is the word ‘peak’ remember on the 7:30 report and he didn’t know what ‘peak speed’ was.
On and yes (i ahd forgotten) the Nats are quietly supporting the NBN.
Who apart from circus central isn’t.
[Was The Chaser any good tonight?]
Wasn’t bad. A bit slow at the beginning but still entertaining.
Speaking of Nauru – did anybody notice whether the cost of setting up and ongoing costs of Nauru were included in the projections during the ‘Comedy Hour’ this afternoon?
has anyone heard any whispers of new polls out tomorrow??
i’m suffering withdrawal symptoms, need a fix man…..starting to shiver and shake, sweating all over
I need more information, some facts and figures, can’t sleep without them….
[Anyone see lateline and have a summary? thanks]
i couldn’t stomach any more ABC tonight
Is Lateline worth watching tonight?
Ah, so that it! Flushed it out!
And there was I thinking a member of the Pervert’s Party was involved!
[SA 2-3-1]
Who is the 2 and who is the 1?
???
Be interesting experiment if you had something like the gigabit NBN available to try connectiing radio telescope arrays in widely separated parts of the country and running them as one set of antennas. The baseline and so effective antenna size would be pretty ginormous.
HMM…. Maybe build an SKA in WA, one in Western NSW, one in the NT (say Katherine?) but all close to main trunks of the NBN and hook them up together. Do the processing by using HORDES of home PC’s all hooked up to high spped fiber.
Wonder if its actually possible??
Try again D@W. NT and Canberra have two members.
Lateline has Conroy vs Tony Smith on broadband – I didn’t stay around to watch.
[Bradfield, so I’ve now got Paul Fletcher as my M.P.]
Oh Evan — you poor thing. Can you move?
Gruen was good but chaser was crap – they have run out of jokes
[I think Abbott’s taunting of Julia to face the voters of Qld was a tactical error. He may have got all the roots at Rooty last time but there was no way she was going to make the same errors again.
This time she got credit for standing up and taking the hard questions.
I thought the good folks of BrisVegas were far more respectful than the Rooters.
May be the maroon hair has an affinity with them.
Oh, and I really think its time for a new poll so we can discuss something of import.]
Great comment.
I thought the questions to Gillard were hard but fair and most of the questioers were most respectful and listened intently, as the whole 200 did.
Was much better than Rooted Hill, and Galaxy obviously didn’t want 500 calls about them stacking the audience.
the media have really been found out in this campaign.
Ch Neins Latham debacle was an embarrassment, then Galaxy’s Rooted Hill fixing was exposed by the blogosphere and twitter.
These media hack have to learn that we go to alternative sources of infomatiobn nowdays, more and more.
They become more and more irrelevant.
Not sure if someone has posted these data because the thread is too long for me to check back. But here are the ALP rounded %s for each of the electorates surveyed by the Telereach robopoll on behalf of JWS for Fairfax. I couldn’t be bothered getting 4 very safe Coalition seats and there are a couple where the party winning was known but I couldn’t get the %s. Didn’t round a couple of close ones. Party is incumbent rather than notional.
Seat (state) – incumbent – ALP TPP robovote
Franklin (TAS)-ALP -65
Bendigo (VIC)-ALP -61
Deakin (VIC)-ALP -61
Bass (TAS)-ALP -60
Kingston (SA)-ALP -59
Braddon (TAS)-ALP -58
McEwen (VIC)-LIB -57
Dunkley (VIC)-LIB -57
Hindmarsh (SA)-ALP -56
Brand (WA)-ALP -56
Eden-Monaro (NSW)-ALP -54
Boothby (SA)-LIB -54
Cowper (NSW)-NAT -54
Dobell (NSW)-ALP -53
Page (NSW)-ALP -53
Moreton (QLD)-ALP -52
Paterson (NSW)-LIB -52
Greenway (NSW)-LIB -51
La Trobe (VIC)-LIB -51
Longman (QLD)-ALP -51
Solomon (NT)-ALP -51
Herbert (QLD)-LIB -51
Robertson (NSW)-ALP -49.8
Corangamite (VIC)-ALP -49.5
Bennelong (NSW)-ALP -48
Flynn (QLD)-ALP -48
Cowan (WA)-LIB -48
McMillan (VIC)-LIB -48
Swan (WA)-LIB -48
Sturt (SA)-LIB -47
Stirling (WA)-LIB -47
Dawson (QLD)-ALP -46
Canning (WA)-LIB -46
Petrie (QLD)-ALP -44
Forde (QLD)-ALP -44
Hughes (NSW)-LIB -44
Hinkler (QLD)-NAT -44
Hasluck (WA)-ALP -43
Grey (SA)-LIB -42.5
Macarthur (NSW)-LIB -42
Bonner (QLD)-ALP -41
Brisbane (QLD)-ALP -41
Dickson (QLD)-LIB -41
Bowman (QLD)-LIB -40
Lindsay (NSW)-ALP -Coalition, can’t get %
Leichhardt (QLD)-ALP -Coalition, can’t get %
Fairfax (QLD)-LIB -Coalition, safe
Calare (NSW)-NAT -Coalition, safe
Fisher (QLD)-LIB -Coalition, safe
Wright (QLD)-LIB -Coalition, safe
Squiggle,
Any poll is going to be a bummer for addicts of the Liberal persuasion.
Appreciate how you feel george…guess I was looking for a more unbiased approach from their ABC, guess pigs will fly!!!
George, we are certainly in the hunt re: SKA, but i dont think its been decided as yet. Will search more.
Imacca,
Can’t see why it couldn’t be possible – brilliant concept!
#3468
Many thanks. 😆
imacca – Given a good quality network it certainly is possible.
Research labs have been doing this for a while on dedicated nets.
I’ll say this for Fletcher: he’s sending me a lot of personalised letters, none of which I bother reading.
Bradfield is meant to be a safe seat, so why is he bothering?
GG
I hope I can be like that when mine are teenagers. i am a little stricter at present 🙂
IMOHO
It seems the cost of Nauru is supposedly included somewhere else – but the savings from closing Xmas island are clearly included here in savings. These figures sound dodgy as all get out
[I thought so.]
I just love how Sampson was about to go on about parties resorting to push polls during the blackout and everybody else shooting him down immediately.
Push polls are something you do when your candidacy is terminal and you couldn’t do any worse. Simply because they run the risk of being transparent. Not to mention the fact that if the media find out, your campaign is dead.
has anyone heard any whispers of new polls out tomorrow??
i’m suffering withdrawal symptoms, need a fix man…..starting to shiver and shake, sweating all over
I need more information, some facts and figures, can’t sleep without them….]
Come back in 2013 and try again Squiggle a good campaign blown out of the water by a lack of policy and refusing to trot out their costings to Treasury will be the legacy for the Liberals.
[Do the processing by using HORDES of home PC’s all hooked up to high spped fiber]
including connected game consoles, don’t forget they’re pretty fast computers in their own right.
Also, not to mention the large folding (protein) projects that could be undertaken right here in Oz rather than o/s. The impact on drug design would be enormous.
So lets get it straight.
The rumour by gus and frank is that Nauru has bankrolled Tony’s mortgage in exchange for restarting the detention centre.
Cool.
Labor winning Dunkley with 57% 2PP – No way! 😀