D-day minus 4

There’s a poll of sorts, but it would be a bit of a stretch to give it its own headline:

• Roy Morgan has targeted a micro-sample of 200 voters in the crucial Victorian seat of McEwen, which could provide Labor with a desperately needed gain to offset losses in Queensland and New South Wales. Certainly that’s what the poll’s headline figure shows, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5, but the margin of error is approaching 7 per cent.

Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics has full results from the weekend’s EMRS poll from Tasmania, which pointed to a statewide 4 per cent two-party swing to Labor from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor (unchanged on 2007), the Liberals on 34 per cent (down four) and the Greens on 20 per cent (up six). The sample on the poll is about 1000, with a margin-of-error or about 3 per cent. As usual, 200-sample breakdowns of each of the state’s five electorates are provided, and for what they’re worth they show Labor enjoying the full force of the swing in marginal Bass and Braddon.

• Laura Tingle of the Financial Review wrote yesterday that “more seasoned sections of the Labor camp” believe they are “just ahead and will fall over the line”. This confidence was partly inspired by a conviction the party would be better placed to sway late undecided voters in the wake of a Labor launch which, Tingle accurately predicted, would seek to “maximise the government’s apparent economic conservatism as it launches TV ads that portray Abbott as too big a risk to the economy with the world economy still shaky”.

• Peter Kerr of the Financial Review reported yesterday that Labor insiders in Western Australia were “growing confident they were ahead in up to three (WA) marginals – Liberal-held Canning as well as Swan and Hasluck”. The result in each was thought likely to come down to “between 500 and 600 votes”. The report also noted the significance of John Howard holding a fund-raiser for Canning MP Don Randall this week.

Simon Jackman in The Australian discusses the potential for the election to follow 1990 and 1998 in denying victory to the party with the greater share of the two-party vote. He also observes the disconnect between bookmakers’ odds on the overall result, which point to a clear Labor win, and individual seats, which point to Labor falling one seat short of an absolute majority.

UPDATE: Not sure if it’s already been linked to, but Essential Research has published state breakdowns from a combined three weeks of polling. The results are in line with other polling with the striking exception of NSW, where the swing is said to be 6.7 per cent. However, notwithstanding that Essential says “more detailed weighting has produced slightly different estimates than simply averaging the published weekly results”, I’m finding the state results hard to square with the reported national swing of 1.7 per cent. Weighting the averages for population puts it 1 per cent higher.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research have found an error in their state breakdowns, and revised NSW, WA and SA 1 per cent in Labor’s favour. So it’s now 5.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent against Labor in NSW and Queensland, and 0.7 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent to Labor in Victoria, SA and WA.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “D-day minus 4”

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  1. Public Servant – big lol. My favourite Chris Pyne memory is when he was minister for whatever he was under Howard (health? youth? crime?) announcing a new drug policy. He actually used the words “There are better ways to have an awesome time.” It was the least genuine use of the word ‘awesome’ I have ever heard. It still gives me laughs.

  2. Rocket Rocket

    Hehe the boatphone. The gag that keeps on giving.

    Yes, Tone has been here a couple of times in the campaign but apart from that, you wouldn’t have a clue who the leader of the Libs was based on their advertising in Deakin

  3. McEwen is interesting. If you are 10% of the population like me then you will know that the last brushfires follow a pattern that is not necessarily a climate change pattern, but climate change data suggests that such incidents are more likely. Who knows how the ‘great unwashed’ interpret this information. The only thing I know for sure is that the Rabbit is too great a risk. Hopefully, Julia will do something about it before it is too late.

  4. Victoria @2239: Tony is not appearing in any of the Libs’ election material. I live in the seat of Canberra and everything going out here, in Fraser and Eden-Monaro is all abbottless.

  5. 2277 Bushfire Bill

    Drove up to the ATM and came back and read your post. If the Australian people elect Tony, well it’s a democracy and that’s that. But it would then be somewhat ironic if people who voted him in then started complaining when they get the self-confessed “occasional untruth teller”.

  6. Boatphone: why haven’t the ALP called Abbott on his requirement for Patrol Navy officers to break the chain of command and call him rather than their commanding officer.

  7. Victoria – 2177 – Look I agree Bolt is not exactly balanced but he does write some good stuff every now and then. You remember the saying – just because I am paranoid doesn’t mean every one is not out to get me!

  8. No 2277

    The assertion, or implication, that Treasury is independent is a furphy. The Treasury is an arm of the government and is controlled by the government. Any suggestion otherwise is complete nonsense.

  9. BTW I saw something Abbott said about infrastructure bonds getting a 10% tax rebate and not costing anything. Ha! that is one of Abbott’s most easily disproven lies. Michael Deegan of Infrastructure Australia was in Adelaide today and discussed the pipeline of projects needing funding over, say, the next decade. He pointed out that the public transport ones alone total $50 billion! In recent years we have averaged at least one PPP tollroad a year being opened, each costing a billion or more. If they all get a 10% tax write off, that means it will cost at least $100 million per year, or about a half billion over four years. Plus, that is assuming there is not an increase in private funded PPPs with teh tax credit (which would in fact defeat the purpose of the policy). So the real cost is probably well in excess of a half billion $ per term of parliament.

    Someone should call Abbott on this obvious lie. Tax cuts cost governments money – doesn’t Abbott know why the United States is broke?

  10. [He had better hope Tony doesn’t call him on the “boatphone” in the next few days for a flying visit!]

    Is that anything like the infamous ‘leader line’, that records the call, inserts a expletive every 3rd word and automatically sends a transcript to the media?

  11. Ffs GG, get out of your paranoia will you? I’m not hiding anything. Being accused of lying really pisses me off, because I don’t do it and hate when other do. I’m from Melbourne everyone. Sorry my name doesn’t reflect that. I’ll have another go at changing it if that’ll make you happy.

  12. Gixxer Man

    Each to their own. If you enjoy reading Bolt nothing to stop you. I have tried, but seriously it is not worth the indigestion.

  13. I live in makin….which we won last time…two letters from FF…and one from Tony Zappia today…thats it….we must be safe 🙂

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