D-day minus 4

There’s a poll of sorts, but it would be a bit of a stretch to give it its own headline:

• Roy Morgan has targeted a micro-sample of 200 voters in the crucial Victorian seat of McEwen, which could provide Labor with a desperately needed gain to offset losses in Queensland and New South Wales. Certainly that’s what the poll’s headline figure shows, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5, but the margin of error is approaching 7 per cent.

Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics has full results from the weekend’s EMRS poll from Tasmania, which pointed to a statewide 4 per cent two-party swing to Labor from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor (unchanged on 2007), the Liberals on 34 per cent (down four) and the Greens on 20 per cent (up six). The sample on the poll is about 1000, with a margin-of-error or about 3 per cent. As usual, 200-sample breakdowns of each of the state’s five electorates are provided, and for what they’re worth they show Labor enjoying the full force of the swing in marginal Bass and Braddon.

• Laura Tingle of the Financial Review wrote yesterday that “more seasoned sections of the Labor camp” believe they are “just ahead and will fall over the line”. This confidence was partly inspired by a conviction the party would be better placed to sway late undecided voters in the wake of a Labor launch which, Tingle accurately predicted, would seek to “maximise the government’s apparent economic conservatism as it launches TV ads that portray Abbott as too big a risk to the economy with the world economy still shaky”.

• Peter Kerr of the Financial Review reported yesterday that Labor insiders in Western Australia were “growing confident they were ahead in up to three (WA) marginals – Liberal-held Canning as well as Swan and Hasluck”. The result in each was thought likely to come down to “between 500 and 600 votes”. The report also noted the significance of John Howard holding a fund-raiser for Canning MP Don Randall this week.

Simon Jackman in The Australian discusses the potential for the election to follow 1990 and 1998 in denying victory to the party with the greater share of the two-party vote. He also observes the disconnect between bookmakers’ odds on the overall result, which point to a clear Labor win, and individual seats, which point to Labor falling one seat short of an absolute majority.

UPDATE: Not sure if it’s already been linked to, but Essential Research has published state breakdowns from a combined three weeks of polling. The results are in line with other polling with the striking exception of NSW, where the swing is said to be 6.7 per cent. However, notwithstanding that Essential says “more detailed weighting has produced slightly different estimates than simply averaging the published weekly results”, I’m finding the state results hard to square with the reported national swing of 1.7 per cent. Weighting the averages for population puts it 1 per cent higher.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research have found an error in their state breakdowns, and revised NSW, WA and SA 1 per cent in Labor’s favour. So it’s now 5.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent against Labor in NSW and Queensland, and 0.7 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent to Labor in Victoria, SA and WA.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “D-day minus 4”

  1. I wonder about Bolt. Is he really as thick, bloody minded and just plain obnoxious as he makes out, or is it largely a cynical ploy to stir things up? I find it hard to believe that a human being can actually be as horrible as he is. If he is genuine then he really is a waste of good oxygen.

  2. Industry consultation on product papers:

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  3. Libs have not spent a brass razoo in Jaga Jaga. They’ve even got a candidate called Joh for me to vote against.

    They’ve run the perfect Labor campaign.

  4. In contrast the Mike Symon leaflest have Julia all over them. One received today is a localised one that talks about getting results for Maroohndah Hospital. Has a picture of Julia and Mike on it. Looks good

  5. GG, I was perfectly honest with you, I don’t particularly like being told that I’ve been sprung. I really can’t get my display name to change. Yes, I’m a card carrying member of the Greens and have been pounding the pavement in Melbourne to get Adam Bandt elected. No hiding or posturing or lying. Not really sure what you’re getting at.

  6. [TSOP

    Why are they including Briggs? He’s never going to lose. And he’s a dry; the other two are wet.]

    I think that’s just supposed to be the “Adelaide team”

    Unless there’s internal polling scaring Briggs… (doubt it)

  7. Oakeshot Country

    notice they dont actually ask you to forward suggestions about what questions you would like asked?

    unfortunately another sign that they have not learnt how to use the new media.

    I sent ALP HQ an email to read Plouffe’s book on the Obama Campaign. I suspect all they have done is read Obama’s book.

  8. El Nino,

    At the last Council elections out here the Greens preferenced a Tony Abbott style “Climate Change is Bullshit” candidate. He’s still on Council and still believes CC is bullshit.

    So, the Greens have no credibility out here comrade.

  9. I suspect that Keenan is spending our money through his postal allowance,
    plus our money from our nation’s mineral wealth through the profits made by
    mining companies that get donated to him, plus a lot of money which isn’t mine
    but comes from smokers who have to give money to tobacco companies
    to fund their addiction and then that gets donated to Keenan too.

  10. [doing the Town Hall thing after Abbott if the debate doesn’t eventuate.

    You can’t ask for better than that.]

    The question is whether Labor’s backroomers have negotiated an agreement with SkyNews that this time the same sized camera head shots will be used for Gillard, Abbott, Speers and the audience questioners. That this time SkyNews pre-candidate and and post-candidate panels will be restricted to one representative chosen by each party but no journos etc. That this time representatives of both parties agree on which audience members are selected to be the questioners. That this time there will be no “exit polling” of the audience in any form whatsoever.

    I would guesstimate that the real composition of a Galaxy “screened” (for lack of a better word) audience will be nearly 2/3 pro-Abbott and nearly 1/3 pro-Gillard with a smattering of “undecideds”. These audience proportions will subsequently be defended as “fair and balanced” with such profound pearls of wisdom as, “Dems da breaks”.

    The rationale for accepting the invitation to walk into another certain audience ambush and highly likely Murdoch-media-tricks ambush is unclear to me. This week’s challenges and counter-challenges about debates and forums were a sideshow of a sideshow, full of sound and fury and signifying nothing. The debate stalemate did not, and could not, benefit either candidate. So, why did Labor agree to participate in not just any old sort of forum but a repeat of the previous Murdoch-run Kangaroo Court Forum?

  11. I’d like to know why they’re including Briggs as well. His ALP opponent is a 19 year old.

    It probably has to do with what happened at the Mayo by-election in 2008. They probably want to establish himself more with the electorate.

  12. Had a bit of a drive and a think. Up to the supermarket and back.

    Abbott came across tonight as someone who has very clever debating skills, a good line in bullshit, someone who can talk his way out of a tight situation or a Red Kerry gotcha.

    But is that what we really want in a PM? What’s the benefit if the PM can spin and snake-oil his way out of trouble? When he’s done talking, the trouble’s still there. If you vote for him and he does the wrong thing he’ll do the verbal three card trick, but your problem won’t be anywhere nearer being solved. If he works out a way to deny you even have a problem, then you’ve got nowhere to go.

    Julia stands up for herself and at least tries to answer questions. Sure, she’s a polly, and evades some, they all do. But she doesn’t try to ace her questioner on every serve. You get the feeling she cares about things that matter to the voters, a helluva lot more than Abbott does.

    Abbott is very clever with his use of weasel words and get out of jail cards, but I’m not sure that’s the person we need in Canberra in the top job.

    We have no costings of his policies, and when we do have something, it’ll be from an as yet unnamed accounting firm specially picked by his own party. That’s not independent. The tax that’s not a tax (it’s a “levy”) will now extend up to 10 years, maybe more (Abbott didn’t deny the “more” part when Kerry said the word). His ministers are second stringers from the old Howard days, and they contradict each other on major policy milestones. He fancies himself as a bathtub admiral, personally directing boat captains in on-the-spot tactics (where before he said it was “properly” their entire responsibility). He’s backflipped on so many policy positions, it’s embarrassing. He excuses all this by saying “I changed my mind.” The question Kerry didn’t ask him is, “What’s to stop you changing your mind back again?” (I was certainly shouting it at the screen myself).

    He’s a clever Dick, too clever by half. He can talk himself out of almost any dangerous situation, but do we want talk or action?

    Anyway, they were my “driving up to the supermarket” thoughts.

  13. So….. Are we waiting on some kind of poll results tonight? In Possum’s blog he mentions some Newspoll demographic data. Anyone with a clue?

  14. Hey GG, you remember me! I am touched. No longer a Greens member though. But will probably still vote for them. Decided to go my own way.

  15. My parents live in Boothby. Mum goes to the local Coles/shops every day. And I mean every day. Every election, without fail, she always says “I saw Southcott today – for the first time in 3 years!” hanging outside Coles. She’s never voted against him, or the Liberal candidate in past years, but is this time.

  16. Just did a hunt around, 23 pieces of election paper has come through the post not including prepoll and postal applications. There have been more, these are just the ones I can easily find. Most of them have tony abbott on them!

  17. Are we waiting on some kind of poll results tonight?

    A “mega nielsen poll” apparently.

    Most likely its verison of the newspoll and Galaxy marginal one I guess.

  18. 2222 madcyril, 2235 alias

    Yes, Barresi is hiding from Abbott as much as he can!

    He had better hope Tony doesn’t call him on the “boatphone” in the next few days for a flying visit!

  19. Nick,

    You’ve taken the Tony Abbott, “I’m not a tech head” defence. Abbott wasn’t convincing and neither are you.

  20. is someone waching twitter? as a gen x’er i’m finding it hard to keep up with all these new fandangle contraptions.. christ i sound a bit like Tone!

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