Election predictions thread

Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.

Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

200 comments on “Election predictions thread”

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  1. Missed Robertson off my expected casualty list (it’s such a basket-case I’d forgotten it is notionally Labor!) but I’ll stay at 78. Add one unstated wildcard Labor save or win. (Seat-by-seat is a mug’s game anyway.) 😉

  2. Odds are stacking up at

    74 ALP + 1 Green
    72 Coalition + 3 Independents with coalition leanings

    My prediction is that the ALP will form government due to “unpredictable win” in a previously safe Coalition seat (eg corangamite in 2007). Vic or SA is ALP’s best chance of an “unpredictable win”.

  3. OK I’m joining in late but here goes

    The swing will as usual be all over the place, but, this time, within state boundaries, given the clear state differences consistently showing up with statistical validity in the polls. I think Qld will be better than the ALP fears but NSW will be slightly worse, with Vic and SA delivering at least the generally predicted wins, minus Melbourne to the Greens. I’m going to back Possum’s modelling and go with

    Labor 77, Greens 1, Conservative Inds 3, LibNats 69

    If this comes true we will be seeing a government with proportionally more VIC/SA /leftness/greeness and less NSW / rightness. If there was any justice (which after this campaign is passing hard to believe) the geniuses at Sussex Street would then be fed into the shredder they so richly deserve, including destruction at the NSW state poll. Sadly and bewilderingly, their hold on the national party appears not a bit diminished by any amount of incompetence, malveasance or dysfunction. Sigh.

  4. I hope the NSW right shrivels up and bursts into flames like the vampires they are now that they’ve been exposed as the slimy cretins they are.

    A better than expected performance in Queensland, and some compensatory gains in Vic/SA, and the loss of some NSW right deadwood would be fine – as long as Abbott is dead, cremated, buried.

  5. Just throwing in an ill-informed guess:

    Labor losses:
    NSW Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson;
    Qld.: Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Leichardt;
    WA: Swan (predict Labor to hold Hasluck).
    Total losses 11

    Labor gains:
    Victoria, LaTrobe, McEwen; (except them to hold Melbourne)
    SA: Boothby, Sturt
    WA: Canning.
    Tasmania and NT: no change
    Total gains 5
    Result 82 – 65 – 3

  6. My best guess is that it was 52/48 at the start, was 52/48 in the middle and now will be 52/48.

    Labour to win 80 seats, Independents 3, Coalition 67.

    Libs to hold the balance of power in the Senate.

  7. My call: 77 ALP, 1 Green, 3 Indep, remainder the twin sides of ‘climate change is crap’.

    My In-sider mates call: 75 ALP, 1 Green, 3 indep, balance ditto. & Greens to win the ACT Senate position from Lib, which means BOP to the Greens in the senate from day 1.

    Either of these outcomes in the lower house would be a ‘win’. ACT result would also be great.

    Be strong and ‘Keep the faith’ (My Irish-Australian Labor Left kind, not Rabbot’s!)

  8. My prediction based on poll averages and conventional “wisdom”:

    Labor 80
    Coalition 66
    Independents 3
    Greens 1

    Our Lady of Lalor to be returned on the back of a tight Greens’ preference flow (85%+)

    TPP 52.0% ALP

  9. Ok, I’m making a pessimistic-optimistic prediction.

    ALP will get 51.6% of the 2PP, but marginals will break badly for them and they will lose narrowly in a swag of seats.

    (On the other hand with Di Natale easily elected to the Senate it will be up to Bandt to provide an achingly close loss for the Greens in Melbourne.)

    ALP to fall on top of (and not quite over) the line with 75 seats. Independents will guarantee supply but none will accept speakership and ALP will need at least one of the cross bench to pass legislation.

    ALP lose 14
    NSW: Bennelong, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson
    Qld: Bonner, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Leichardt, Herbert, Petrie
    WA: Swan
    Vic: Corangamite

    ALP win 1
    VIC: McEwen

  10. I feel upbeat, against the grain. I have a strong feeling that a high proportion of undecided voters will be turned off big time by the crazed look on Tony Abbott’s face at the end of his no-sleep stunt. I also feel that Julia Gillard, while quite boring at times, has projected calm and stability.

    This late flood of undecideds Labor’s way will stave off the kind of swing that would produce a hung parliament or worse.

    Still, I can’t see Labor saving Melbourne, for instance, though I’m more optimistic about the likes of Bennelong, against the grain. The reasoning there is that Green voters or more committed to their position than wavering Howard battlers.

    Labor 83
    Coalition 63
    Independents 3
    Greens 1

  11. There always ends up a lot less seats changing hands than are speculated. I also think there will be a lot of the undecided come down in favour of ALP. As possum has noted the polls have matched 2004 and the government of the day outperformed the polls so I’m expecting that again too.

    I think it will be 81-66-3. As follows:

    ALP losses:

    Petrie (QLD)
    Leichhardt (QLD)
    Hasluck (WA)
    Forde (QLD)
    Dawson (QLD)
    Flynn (QLD)
    Swan (*) (WA)
    Macarthur (*) (NSW)
    Robertson (NSW)
    Gilmore (*) (NSW)
    Dickson (*) (QLD)

    ALP gains:

    Paterson (NSW)
    La Trobe (VIC)
    Boothby (SA)
    McEwen (VIC)

    Possible gains:

    Cowper (NSW)
    Aston (VIC)
    Dunkley (VIC)

  12. Your prediction looks good to me BillBowe. I haven’t been engaged enough in this campaign to really have a dissenting opinion, but I’ll throw in my $0.05:

    – Bennelong (where I have been paying some attention) to be held by Maxine McKew as you predict. I’d rate it as probably 70% chance for Labor.

    – The MSM hysteria notwithstanding, the polling seems to have settled out at about 51 to 51.5% Labor 2PP. Allowing for variability in the marginals, 79 to ALP looks about right, probably plus or minus 3 or 4 seats.

    – From the marginal seat polling – too many assumptions being made about consistent swing, particularly from the innumerate amongst the MSM. Also no idea about MoE amongst these same respected reporters. So, several Labor marginals to be lost, but I have no idea which ones, and several to stay Labor.

    Vote early, vote often, etc.

  13. Labor 50.5% 2PP but Canberra will be a nuclear test site for NSW.

    ALP: 71
    LNP: 76
    IND: 3

    WorkChoices was our only weapon against the anti-boat brigade.

  14. For what it’s worth, my prediction is:

    ALP 75
    Coalition 71
    Green 1
    Ind 3

    Losses, based on the notional starting point include Herbert, Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Bennelong, Swan, Gilmore, Macarthur, Dickson, Hasluck, Flynn, Dawson, Leichardt, Lindsay, Melbourne

    Gains: McEwen, LA Trobe.

  15. ALP 76, Greens 1, Indies 3, Coalition 70

    even though I think the ALP will win Herbert, La Trobe, McEwen, Paterson and Boothby I think there will be significant losses in Qld with seats like Bonner and the NSW will be a bit of a wipeout.

  16. ALP 51% Coalition 49%

    Coalition (notional) gains:
    Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Greenway, Lindsay (NSW)
    Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde (Qld)
    Corangamite (Vic)
    Swan (WA)
    Solomon (NT)

    Labor (notional) gains:
    Paterson (NSW)
    McEwen, Latrobe (Vic)
    Boothby (SA)

    Green gain:

    Final score:

    ALP 76 Coalition 70 Ind 3 Green 1

  17. 182

    I don`t think the DLP will get back into the Senate. They have had their preference fluke. The Greens will get 4-7 new Senators foe a total of 7-10.

  18. I’ve got no idea, dwelling from comfortable win to barebones. i never listen to Shanas on anything really, but he picked the coup and is going for 78.

    I’ll settle for 78 Lab, 68 LNP, 3 Ind, 1 Green.

  19. Just to be different:

    ALP 78
    COA 67
    IND 4
    GRN 1

    2PP ALP 51.2 COA 48.8

    ALP will hang on in a swag of marginals in NSW and Qld by knife edges, but lose some on postals etc. Julia Gillard will try to declare herself winner tonight but Abbott will not concede.

    I haven’t got time to go through the list individually (might do so after polls close but before results?).

    In SA Libs will lose Boothby and retain Sturt where Pyne’s vote will buck the trend and he will get a tiny swing to him.

    ALP retain Solomon in NT and gain McEwen and Latrobe in Vic . No change in Tas.

    Senate: Greens to stun everyone and get ACT for a total of 8. FF to get last seat in WA and SA (I hope I’m wrong there) but that’s it.

    Bowman to go Coalition by 990 votes.

    Sex Party to get 2% – 3% in lower house and outpoll Democrats and FF in most seats.

  20. ALP Gains:

    VIC – McEwen

    LIB-NAT gains:

    QLD – Dickson, Herbert, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leichardt

    NSW – Bennelong, Hughes, Macarthur, Robertson, Gilmore, Macquarie

    WA – Hasluck, Swan

    Green Gains:

    VIC – Melbourne

    Greens 1, ALP 73, LIB-NAT 73, Others 3.

    Greens to win a Senate spot in each state, narrowly missing out in ACT.

  21. Senate interesting. Good chance of 3 Lab and 1 Green each in Tas and Vict.
    Pretty certain 3/3 split in other states. Would think Greens likely to win a seat in WA, Qld and NSW because of lower Labor vote but possibly missing out in SA because Labor could get around 3 quotas. ACT close for second spot Libs/Greens but suspect Libs.

  22. [Whatever the outcome, insiders say recriminations are inevitable.

    “This could be the end for the [Labor] NSW Right, federally,” said ]

    Oh please God yes!

  23. I expect a hung parliament with Independants siding with labor due to them wining the popular vote and some sweetners.
    In SA: Status Quo.

    TAS: Status Quo.

    NT: Soloman. Labor Loss: So Liberal gain 1.

    VIC: La Trobe will be held by Lib, Melbourne won by Greens and McEwan: Liberal loss . Overall- green gain of 1 and ALP 1

    WA: 2 Labor loses- Hasluck and Swan.- Liberal gain 2

    QLD: Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Petrie, Dawson and Leichhardt. Labor Lose 6.

    NSW:Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Bennelong ( Goodbye Maxine McKew :), Robertson, Lindsay and Gilmore: Labor lose 6 seats.

    ACT: Eden Manaro held by Labor, no other change.

    73 Labor.
    73 Liberal
    1 Greens
    3 Ind.

  24. Better get in before 6pm. Also swaying between a 1990 close or a 1993 surprise pull away. Nationwide ~1% swing away from ALP 2PP sounds about right.

    Going with ALP net -2 outside of Qld & NSW (losses in WA/NT/Vic offset by gains in Vic and possibly SA)

    NSW: have to pick something between ALP -4 and ALP -7. Lets go -5
    Qld: something between ALP -3 and -7. Thinking -5 also.

    From notional 88 that leaves ALP with 76, Grn 1, Ind 3 and Coalition 70.

    An appropriate slap in the face leading to right faction cleanout, but not to the point of having Tone in the lodge. ie, the right result.

    Will be holding thumbs for Maxine – she would be an unfortunate loss

  25. ITEP
    DLP to win a senate seat in Queensland and VIC.
    In vic DLP can win with 2.85 and FF 3.% and ON .05%, on anthony Greens calculator try it
    In Queensland DLP can win with 3.5%, while FF need 6+% to win

  26. ITEP
    DLP to win a senate seat in Queensland and VIC.
    In vic DLP can win with 2.85 and FF 3.% and ON .05%, on anthony Greens calculator try it
    In Queensland DLP can win with 3.5%, while FF need 6+% to win

  27. Better Late than never I hope…

    All based on notational seats.

    NSW ALP to lose 6 (Macarthur, Macquarie, Gilmore, Robertson, Bennelong, Lindsay
    TPP Swing 2.75% to LNP

    QLD ALP to lose 5 (Leichardt, Dawson, Dickson, Forde, Longman)
    Note:Hold Flynn & Herbert
    Swing 3.0% to LNP

    Vic – ALP to gain McEwen & La Trobe. Lose Melbourne
    Swing to ALP 1.6%

    SA – ALP to gain Boothby
    Swing 2.0%

    WA – ALP to lose Swan & Hasluck
    Swing TO LIB 1.0%

    Tas & Territories -No change.

    New Parliament – ALP 77, IND 3, GRN 1, LNP 69
    NP to gain O’Connor

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