Election predictions thread

Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.

Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

200 comments on “Election predictions thread”

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  4. NSW:

    Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Gilmore, Lindsay, and Robertson

    Vic:

    Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe, and Dunkley (with the latter being my “upset pick”).

    Qld:

    Labor to lose Herbert, Dickson, Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, and Forde

    WA:

    Labor to lose Swan

    No change elsewhere. Labor 79, Coalition 68, Independents 3.

  8. ALP to lose Bennelong, Gilmore, Macquarie, Robertson, Dawson, Dickson, Leichardt, Swan and Melbourne to Greens

    ALP to gain McKewan, Latrobe, Dunkley, Aston, Cowper, Canning

    88-9 + 6= 85ALP, 3 ind, 1 Green, 61 Coal

    By the way Dunkley odds 4.13 on sports bet. I will put my free $100 on it. If we are getting this dud may as well make some money

  10. Coalition to lose
    -La Trobe McEwin

    Labor to lose
    -Melbourne (to greens),
    -Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore, Bennalong
    -Swan, Hasluck
    -Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Ford, Leichardt
    -solomon

    Final Labor 74, Coalition 72, Others 4

  11. I have said this before

    ALP losing 4 in QLD and 1 in NSW
    Gaining 3 in Vic and 1 in SA
    No change in WA, NT, ACT and TAS
    (from pre-redistribution- very confusing I know)

    So I think that makes it 82 seats to ALP.

    I think the major comment from the night will be “where are these swings in NSW?”

    2PP something like 52.5/47.5
    ALP primary 40%
    Greens 12%
    Other 6%
    Coalition 42%

    There will be some wacky unexpected swings in some safe seats both ways that will have no effect on the election whatsoever.

  15. Coalition to lose
    – La Trobe and McEwen

    Labor to lose
    – Corranagamite, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay, Swan, Hasluck, Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leichardt, Brisbane and Petrie

    Final Labor 74, Coalition 73, Others 3

  18. Starting with 88. Alp lose 5 in qld. Lose 4 in nsw but pick up Cowper and Paterson lose 2 but gain 1 in wa. Gain 2 in sa. Gain 3 in vic. Status quo elsewhere. My big prediction is another ind in Parkes and for the green vote to come out as overhyped ( as it always is) with no green in Melbourne no green for act senate and only 5 state senate seats total. 85 alp 4 ind coalition 71.

  22. Well it should have been 80+ to Labor, but the mad right in the Labor reduced the difference between the parties. We have a choice; mad right 1 and mad right 2, the the results will reflect this.

    You would be crazy not to go with the polls. I understand Corrangamite and I think the poll is about right. I think Melbourne will go to the Greens.

    As near as I can figure, that makes it.

    88-16 + 4 = 76 to labor
    70 to the liberals
    3 Independents
    1 Greens.

    Labor by a nose. No hung parliament. Neither side gets the kick in the guts they both need.

    Balance of power in the senate to the greens.

  23. William – wow, ours are similar, here is mine as posted on Sunday:

    Final outcome:
    ALP 79 seats, LIB 67 seats, OTH 4 seats

    QLD: Herbert (LIB Gain), Flynn (LIB Gain), Dickson (LIB Gain), Dawson (LIB Gain), Forde (LIB Gain)
    NSW: Robertson (LIB Gain), Gilmore (LIB Gain), Macquarie (LIB Gain), Macarthur (LIB Gain)
    VIC: McEwen (ALP Gain), La Trobe (ALP Gain), Melbourne (GRN Gain)
    WA: Swan (LIB Gain), Hasluck (LIB Gain)
    SA: Boothby (ALP Gain)
    NT: No change
    TAS: No change

    ALP Gain 3 seats, LIB Gain 11 seats, GRN Gain 1 seat
    Overall ALP net loss of 9 seats

  24. ALP 74 LNP 72 GRN 1 IND 3

    ALP will win the popular vote, which will comfortably secure confidence from the rural independents and Adam Bandt.

    Solomon and Hasluck will go.

  25. No government leading in the polls and a preferred pm ratio currently held has ever lost an election. I expect labor to pick up seats not lose them so labor 91 grn 0,ind 3 and who give’s a damm how many are left for the coalition

  26. I’m going to go with Labor 81, Coalition 65, Greens 1, others 3.

    I think that’s still a bit under for Labor, but then I also think they’ll follow the usual first-term trend and go backwards a bit. Those two ideas don’t quite match up, so I’ve split the difference on it, more or less. Not sure how the knife-edge seats will break, so I won’t go there.

  32. Greens to lose to the Liberals in Melbourne. ALP primary vote 44% Greens 26% Libveral 28%. Docklands to boost the Liberal Party vote.

    What then media including William is not reporting is that Melbourne in 2007 had a margin of 67% between the Liberals and the Greens. The Liberal Party polling 23% primary and the Greens 22%. In 2010 there is an additional 3-5,000 inner city voters. Most will not vote Green.

    Greens will win a Senate seat in Victoria in the basis of a flaw in the way the Senate vote is counted.

    Overall the ALP to win by four seats (Alternatively a hung parliament and a double dissolution within 18 months)

    The recent marginal poll proving to be the most accurate poll.

    The biggest looser Anthony green’s Calculator (You can not apply a national swing to the pendulum. The methodology in using marginal seats to recalibrate the pendulum in the absence of a comprehensive seat by seat poll is preferable)

  33. Correction Melbourne had a margin of 0.67% between the Liberal Party and the Greens. Both will increase there vote Liberal party to out poll the Greens.

  36. I am surprised WB that you don’t have Bennelong and Lindsay down as losses to ALP? Do you think they will actually win, despite the betting markets and polls< I do hope you are right, but any reason you can give why you have said this?

  38. For the mad professor @36

    Actually should be:

    ALP 93
    Greens 1
    Ind 3
    Coalition 53

    2PP 54.5/45.5 big swing back to govt in last 48 hrs. The electorate will suddenly realize eek we wont risk it

  39. I’m gonna go out on a few limbs here… hey, it’s all fun. I’m terrible at tipping footy too. 😛

    Qld: ALP lose Dawson, Flynn; gain Ryan. (And realistically, “gain” Herbert and Dickson… I’ve never been a fan of talking of notional margins like that.) ALP -1, LNP +1.

    NSW: ALP lose Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore* to Liberals, and Grayndler to Greens; gain Cowper from Nats. Libs gain Riverina from Nats. ALP -3, Lib +4, Nat -2, Grn +1.

    Vic: ALP gain McEwen, La Trobe; lose Melbourne to Greens. ALP +1, Lib -2, Grn +1.

    WA: Nats gain O’Connor, ALP gain Canning and lose Swan*. Lib -1, Nat +1.

    SA: ALP gain Boothby and Sturt. ALP +2, Lib -2.

    Tas, NT, ACT: as is.

    Total change: ALP -1, Lib/Nat/LNP -1, Grn +2.

    Seats: ALP 87, LNP 58, Grn 2, Ind 3.

    That’s a slightly better victory than last time; also better than my gut feeling, which says “bloody close”. Where I might have been to kind to Labor is Lindsay (I don’t think it’s the most affected seat by boat people just because that’s where the leaflet thing happened, and plus, they already had their blast at state Labor in the Penrith by-election), and maybe a few of the Queensland seats.

    Also, a few side bets: ALP to come third in O’Connor, Riverina and Mayo; Greens second in Batman and Mayo. Best of the independents (apart from the three MP’s): Andrew Wilkie in Denison, John Clements in Parkes, Michael Johnson in Ryan.

  40. So the Labor optimists are expecting 2004 and the pessimists expect 1974?

    if the latter pans out, it’ll be a wrenching wait for the declaration votes to be tallied.

    Whilst the friendly media keeps pointing out the size of the LNP’s primary vote advantage…

  41. Liberals to win all five notional Labor seats: Swan, Gilmore, Macarthur, Herbert, Dickson. (-5)

    Liberals to win all marginal Labor seats with no sitting Labor MP: Dawson, Macquarie, Robertson, Bass. (-9)

    Liberals to win at one other seat in each of Brisbane (Forde/Bonner/Longman) and Sydney (Benn/Lindsay/Dobell) (-11)

    Libs to win Hasluck (-12)

    Labor to lose Melbourne to the Greens and pick up McEwen. Can’t make my mind up about Latrobe. (-11 to Lib, -1 to Green)

    Labor to win Boothby (-10 to Lib, -1 to green)

    All existing Indies to hold but no further Indy gains.

    So that’s 78 ALP, 69 Lib, 3 Indies, 1 Grn.

  43. Bird @38

    Grayndler to the Greens? Last election Greens got 19% primary, so take the seat from Albanese they would need what as a primary? Libs at 20% last time probably wont change and ALP primary of 55% would have to drop 15% – 20%. Do you have some inside dope on this one?

  45. Hell, I knew I’d missed one. A possible freak upset to Labor in Fisher, where the local paper seems to have gone feral against Peter Slipper. It’s supposed to be blue-ribbon Liberal, but the margin ain’t thaaat big.

  48. NSW – Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson Gilmore Lindsay Page Bennelong to Coalition
    QLD – Dickson Dawson Herbert Flynn Forde Leichardt to Coalition
    Vic – McEwan La Trobe to ALP Melbourne to Greens
    WA – Hasluck Swan to Coalition
    NT – Solomon to Coalition
    SA/ACT/Tas – status quo

    ALP – 73
    Coalition – 73
    Independent Nats – 3
    Greens – 1

    Hullo Tony! Welcome back to the DLP! Like Japanese soldiers in the islands after WW2, there will be survivors creeping out of crypts waving copies of News Weekly, claiming never to have surrendered.

  49. Starting with Labor 88, Coalition 59, Others 3 we end up with Labor 77, Coalition 69, Others 4.

    NSW (Loss of 5): Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Gilmore, Lindsay and Robertson. Bennelong on a knife edge but stays ALP.

    Vic (Gain 1, Loss 1): Labor to gain McEwen, and lose Melbourne to Greens.

    Qld (Loss 4): Labor to lose Dickson, Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn with Herbert not going to Coalition.

    WA (Loss 2): Labor to lose Swan and Hasluck

    No change in NT, SA, Tasmania and the ACT(!)

  50. Mad Professor: No inside dope, just figuring that between the Greens vote rising generally, the Libs running very dead and the Green candidate being a high profile local mayor, the Greens will very likely come second and then it’s game on. As for them winning (it could happen with a 8-10% drop in Labor’s vote, though even that ain’t all that likely), that’s more wish-fulfillment than anything… see, I told you I was going out on limbs. Call it smoothing the path for Alannah MacTiernan in Canning, your new transport minister. (Canning is pretty chancy itself.)

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