Election predictions thread

Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.

Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

200 comments on “Election predictions thread”

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  1. Good Morning.

    I won’t go into individual seats because the situation is too complex with information overload.

    The main factors at play, I see are:

    1) The media is friendly to the Coalition, particularly News Ltd and their ABC.

    2) Labor has not done a good job at selling its achievements, known as “spinning”, while the Coalition has done a very good job indeed of spinning its message of negativity (with the assistance of the compliant media, as noted).

    2) The bookmakers’ odds (for the election result as a whole, as opposed to the markets for individual seats) indicates a clear Labor victory.

    3) Numerous commentators, including William Bowe, Possum, Andrew Catsaris (known on Crikey blogs as Aristotle), social researcher Hugh McKay, Andrew Bolt (yes, even him) are tipping a Labor victory.

    Balancing up the above considerations I predict a whisker-thin Labor victory:

    Labor 76 seats, Coal 71, Independents 3.

    (Though I’m hopeful the numbers will be more favourable than that)

  2. ic, more about ditching Albo, and the Greens are your likely method. Cool, although living in Grayndler and recognising how Bolshie my neighbours are – still, no one’s seeing a Greens victory with any confidence.

  3. Starting with the notional 88 ALP seats

    NSW & QLD – loss of 9 seats
    WA – net loss of 1 seat
    SA & VIC – net gain of 2 seats
    ACT,TAS,NT – no change

    ALP 80, LNP 67, Ind 3

    Greens not to win Melbourne but I’m not particualarly sure about that.

    Greens to be mildly disappointed (compared to the polls) in their HoR votes polling less than 10%.

    Greens to do well in the Senate picking up 3 seats

    Not a big call – but I want to say it anyway – Steve Fielding to loss his seat (yah!)

    Overall theme of the night – swings (both ways) less than expected.

  4. My prediction:

    Liberals lose no seats, and pick up:

    NSW: Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hughes, Macarthur, Lindsay, Macquarie, Greenway, Bennelong, Robertson, Dobell, Richmond, possibly even McMahon.

    VIC: Corangamite, Deakin

    TAS: Bass

    QLD: Everything except Griffith, Capricornia, Rankin, Lilley and Oxley

    SA: Nil

    NT: Solomon

    WA: Hasluck and Swan

    Libs: 88
    ALP: 58
    Ind: 3
    Grn: 1

  5. Hey it’s an Ostrich Farm!!

    Labor anywhere near 80???? COOOOOKKKKOOOOOO!!

    At the very real risk of being a broken record (but not alone in PB in this regard!):

    Coalition: 74
    ALP: 72
    IND: 3

    Minority Coalition Government

    Latrobe will stay Liberal, Melbourne will fall to Green, McEwen to fall the Labor, Corangamite to Coalition.

    No change in SA. If you believe Sturt and Boothby will be touched, you might as well bet on Coalition to win.. the odds are the same.

    West Australia: Swan and Hasluck gone.

    Solomon: Coalition grab.

    Tas: slight but unlikely chance of Bass, otherwise swing but no seats to ALP.

    How Labor can drop by as little as 8 seats, when all five notional ALP after re-distribution are all pointing clearly to coalition is beyond me. This would be assuming that at least 9 seats (in additional to lost notional ALP seats) are wrong on the betting market??? Unlikely.

    Labor may hold, just, but more likely is a minority Coalition government.

  6. coalition landslide. at least ten more dark years. an unimaginable australia at the end. even more radical brutal social transformation than under howard as fear and greed get raised even higher as the true spitritual glories of this nation of homeowning insured breeders cowering and sneering in their brick veneer caves.

  7. Alp return with reduced margin in HOR.

    Primary 40%

    Grn HOR primary nation wide 12.5%

    Grn Senate vote 14%

    Grn win in Melb and Balance of Power in Senate,

    Grn vote will be patchy but expect Vic HOR votes to have a teen on the end and that Di Natale (Vic Senate) will win on primary vote.

    Bennalong close and higlight just what an anti Howard result 2007 was.

  8. there will either be a hung parliament or an alp government (oh no another 3 years of alp)

    anyway here are my predictions from alp 88 of 150 after redistributions

    ALP gains: McEwen (irrelevant because of redistribution after election) and LaTrobe

    LIB/LNP gains: Bennelong, Gilmore (notional), Lindsay, Macarthur (notional), Macquarie, Page, Robertson, Bonner, Dawson, Dickson (notional), Flynn, Forde (my tip for biggest swing in the country), Herbert (notional), Leichardt, Petrie, Corangamite, Swan, Hasluck (notional) and Solomon

    Green Gains: Melbourne

    Independent Gains: Ryan (for Michael Johnson) and O’Connor (the WA nats wont be a friendly member of the coalition)

    leaves ALP 70
    Coalition 75
    IND 4 (Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott and Johnson)
    Greens 1 (Bandt in Melbourne
    WA Nats 1 (Crook in O’Connor)

    i hope im wrong and there is a coalition govt but i believe there will be an ALP minority or the swing wont be as severe or bigger than expected in SA and VIC and will se an ALP majority government

  9. Here I go.

    From 88 notionals, ALP to lose Liechhardt, Flynn, Dawson, Dickson, Robertson, Gilmore, Macquarie, Macarthur, Swan, Hasluck, Melbourne (to Grn)

    ALP to win McEwen, La Trobe

    ALP: 79
    Ind: 3

  10. ALP 76
    Coalition 70
    Independents 3
    Greens 1

    Labor loses 14 seats – Melbourne(to the Greens), Gilmore, Macquarie, Macarthur, Lindsay, Bennelong, Flynn, Leichhardt, Dawson, Dickson, Herbert, Swan, Hasluck, Robertson.
    ALP gains McEwen and La Trobe.

  11. I locked in one the other day:

    ALP: 83
    Coa: 64
    Ind: 3

    Gains (Notionals will only count if they change hands)

    Leichardt, Flynn, Dawson, Ryan (from Ind) and Wright (new seat) to Coalition.

    Robertson and Macquarie to Coalition. Greenway to Labor. (-1 ALP for the loss of Lowe to redistribution)

    McEwen, LaTrobe & Aston to Labor


    Boothby and Sturt to Labor

    WA, TAS, NT & ACT:

    No change.

    2PP: complete arbitrary guess but I’ll say 52.1-47.9 ALP

  12. My predictions exactly a month ago, which to me still hold up okay. Shying away a bit from my picks in Solomon, Bass, Corangamite, Hughes and Macarthur… I’ll stick with them though.

    Coalition 71
    Labor 75
    Independents 3
    Greens 1

    2PP: 50.9-49.1 to ALP

    * ALP gains from LNP (2):

    McEwen (Vic) 0.02%
    Hughes (NSW) 0.5%
    Macarthur (NSW) 0.5% notional hold
    Greenway (NSW) 5.7% notional hold

    * LNP gains from ALP (14):

    Herbert (Qld) 0.03% notional gain
    Robertson (NSW) 0.1%
    Solomon (NT) 0.2%
    Macquarie (NSW) 0.3%
    Swan (WA) 0.3% notional gain
    Gilmore (NSW) 0.4% notional gain
    Dickson (Qld) 0.8% notional gain
    Corangamite (Vic) 0.9%
    Hasluck (WA) 0.9%
    Bass (Tas) 1.0%
    Flynn (Qld) 1.2%
    Bennelong (NSW) 1.4%
    Dawson (Qld) 2.6%
    Leichhardt (Qld) 4.1%

    * GRN gains from ALP (1):

    Melbourne (Vic) 4.7%

    * Roughies: Longman, Lindsay, Brand

  13. ALP 78
    Lib/Nats 69
    Ind 3

    Lib/Nats gain +11

    ALP gain +1

    Ind and Greens stay the same

  14. ALP (absolute minimum) – 72
    Coalition (absolute maximum) – 74

    Moving around the country:

    QLD: ALP to lose Leichhardt, Dawson, Dickson, Brisbane, Flynn, Longman, Forde
    NSW: ALP to lose Gilmore, Macquarie, Macarthur, Robertson, Bennelong
    VIC: ALP to win McEwen
    SA: ALP to win Boothby
    WA: ALP to lose Swan, Hasluck. Nats to win O’Connor from Lib
    TAS: No change

    Above ALP nett -12 to 76, Coalition + 12 to 71

    Seats where I cannot decide: Herbert, Solomon, Hughes, La Trobe, Corangamite, Melbourne, Riverina between Lib and Nat

    On the undecideds: Labor on 72 if they lost all 4 and gained none of undecided, Coalition on 74 if they won 3 above.

    Ranges: ALP 72 up. Coalition 74 down, Greens 0 -1, Ind 3. On balance,a Labor majority government with 78 seats tops. ALP to hold Petrie, Bonner, Greenway, Page, EM.

    A few other seats may be worth watching and may come out of the woodwork: Capricornia, Cowper, Dobell, Deakin, McMillan, Dunkley, Denison (ind or Green)

  15. Rolling average – minor Greens improvement up:

    ALP 80/81
    LNP 66
    Ind 3
    Grn .64

    The Monthly just posted the results of their guess-athon: ALP 79 on 52% 2PP

  16. Well, I am hoping for a late swing to the Government that will result in a 2PP that is very similar to 2007, say 52.5-47.5

    I reckon the swing to the Tories in Queensland will be cancelled out by the swing to the ALP in Victoria in terms of seats. The rest of the country should more or less balance out as well with gains for the Tories in NSW being cancelled by losses in SA.

    Overall, a couple of modest gains for the Tories but a chamber that is essnetially the same as it is now.

    ALP 82
    Tories 65
    Independents 3

  17. I’m anticipating Labor to do slightly better than expected, fuelling idiotic stories that only Julia could have won, which is unprovable bollocks.

    Overall, ALP 92, Coalition 65, Independents 3.

    ALP to gain Hughes, Paterson and Cowper in NSW, Ryan in Qld, McEwen and La Trobe in Vic, and Boothy AND Sturt in SA, as well as Canning in WA.

    ALP to lose Robertson, Forde, Flynn, Swan, Solomon.

    Libs to gain all notional ALP seats except Herbert. ALP to hold Melbourne.

    FAMILY FIRST UPSET SHOCKAH in SA Senate race, dear god make it stop. Greens to win Senate seat in Vic easily (at expense of Libs), possibly on primary vote, as well as in WA (ahead of 3rd Labor) and Tas (ahead of 3rd Liberal). Fall short in NSW, Qld and (considerably) in ACT.

  18. NSW


    Gain: Macarthur, Gilmore, Robertson, Macquarie, Bennelong, Lindsay


    Gain: Hughes



    Gain: Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Leichardt, Forde, Herbert



    Gain: Corangamite


    Gain: McEwen, La Trobe


    Gain: Melbourne



    Gain: Hasluck, Swan



    Gain: Solomon

    No change in SA, ACT and TAS

  19. Update to my prediction above! I had forgotten Lindsay!!!!

    Predict ALP loss of Lindsay.

    Revise to 71 (ALP absolute min), 75 (Coalition absolute max) . Stick with majority Labor government with 78 ALP tops

  20. Ok the easy states first

    Tas -No change

    NT – Solomon to the Libs

    SA – Boothby to the ALP (sort of a catch-up win from 2007)

    WA – Swan only to the Libs.

    VIC – McEwan to the ALP (fire reconstruction efforts). Melbourne retained.

    NSW- Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Bennelong, Gilmore to the Libs

    QLD – Dickson, Dawson, Herbert, Liechardt Flynn to the Libs.

    ALP majority – 78 seats. Indies- 3 LNP – 69

  21. I claim no great skill at this caper federally (out by two, seven and four seats in the last three elections). I’ve been starting with the current 83 rather than the notional 88 because most of the difference is wafer-thin notional Labor marginals with Coalition incumbents and most of those are write-offs.

    From the current 83 Labor to lose:
    Lowe (abolished), Bennelong, Macquarie, Flynn, Dawson, Leichhardt and Hasluck and I suppose Melbourne, just, though I’m lukewarm about it; Bandt has no right to be in at $1.44 and I am not even certain he’ll get over the Lib.

    Labor to gain:
    Greenway (redistributed), McEwen and LaTrobe.


    2PP: 1 % swing. 51.7-48.3

    Obviously there are a fair few Labor seats that can also drop, like Solomon, Lindsay, some of the Queensland seats and Labor can win other seats like Boothby or some of the Vic seats. And not all the above will definitely switch. I just think that with all the confusing nonsense that has gone on, most of it irrelevant to the average voter, it’s just going to follow the usual first-term script: low seat turnover, small swing to Opposition, etc.

  22. [Who’s the 4th independent?]
    Presumably either Wilkie in Denison, Johnson in Ryan or the guy in Parkes?
    They seem to be the only 3 getting a mention.

  23. Barring a hand-crushing type of event tomorrow night, the TPP is pointing at about 51.5% and the seat number at 79 for (ALP+GRN). It is interesting that this TPP is where the linear trend has been pointing for 18 months…. but with heaps of wobbling along the way.

    If however, one takes notice of the seat-specific polling, the seat number comes in at 75 on the same TPP.

  24. ALP 85
    LNP 61
    IND 4

    I started with ALP 79, but I’m factoring in a big Abbott stuff up; some NBN support not been registered in the polls; and a hunch about the Mega-Poll’s bias (with a fair dollop of wishful thinking).

  25. Libs to gain Swan, Solomon, Corangamite, Robertson, Macarthur, Macquarie, Gilmore, Lindsay, Dickson, Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Brisbane (14 seats)
    Labor to gain McEwen, LaTrobe, Dunkley, Boothby, Cowper (5 seats)
    Labor 79, Coalition 68, Indies 3, Greens 0.

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