Election predictions thread

Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.

Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

200 comments on “Election predictions thread”

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  1. Labor has no hope in Boothby or Sturt. Abbott has made only one visit to SA, Gillard two. Forget about these chimerical gains. It’s status quo in SA.

  2. There’ll be a last minute swing to incumbant – larger than expected due to only one term, literally the (in ballot room) “um … ahh … oh what the hell givem another chance”.

    There’ll be big headlines about Labor’s dirty tricks and sandbagging to try and explain it.

  3. Predict something similiar to nsw election 2007. In that one lot of angst/drama for only 3 seats lost.


    81 labour
    66 liberal
    3 ind
    0 grn

    80 is too popular, being 81 is too different.

  4. “There’ll be a last minute swing to incumbant”

    True, but I tend to agree with the likes of Peter “Mumble” Brent that Labor threw away their incumbancy advantage (or at least damaged it) by removing Rudd, and that this is basically a battle of two untested “Oppositions”.

  5. My sense is that labor is sitting on about 51.5% of the two party vote and it has been stable for a couple of weeks.

    IMO it could go wither way. Stay at 51.5, ALP have a narrow win, drift to coalition and a hung parliament/lib win.

    Drift to ALP and we have close to status quo (on 07 seats).

    My concern is the large green vote and whether the 80% prefernce flow will hold – if it gets down to 70 % may be disastrous.

    My gut feel is that this week has been neutral or positive for ALP and with ads now ended, a couple of days reflection, the womens vote and the little mood for change outside of NSW and QLD and the actual prospect of voting for Abbott will have the undecideds drift oir fall ALP’s way.

    I’d say an ALP TPP of between 52 and 52.5, 11 seats (off notional) to Coalition
    4 seats to ALP. (Melbourne 50/50)


    ALP 80
    Greens 1
    Ind 3
    Coalition 66

    Worst case scenario 17 seats to Coalition (8 QLD 6 NSW 1 VIC 2 WA)
    2 to Alp (VIC and SA)

    Alp 73
    Ind 3
    Coaltion 74

  6. BB Seph and I almost in complete agreement with predictions, if not with broader political philosophy!

    It will be a temperate day in Hades before the ALP gets anywhere near 80 seats in this election!!

    Even as it stands, BBPseph and I agree with this:

    ALP: 72
    Coalition: 74
    IND: 3
    GRN: 1

    Minority Coalition with either 77 or 76 to 73/74 on the Left (Independent speaker, most likely… would love it to be Katter!! 🙂 🙂 :)).

    “Mr Spoiker, Mr Spoiker, the member for Wentworth is prognosticating out of his bot-bot with this policy!”

    “For the last time, it’s ‘Bob’ you wanker!! No siddown and shut the hell up Gillard!! Sheeeesh!”

  7. The other thing about the parallel between the $1bn out of hospitals and $1bn out of PBS is that the former drives Abbott mental…we saw that in QT and in the health debate (he brought out the budget papers!!)

    He hates attention being drawn to the those hospital cuts

  8. Not so close as many ( media) commentators predict. I thought this at the beginning and nothing has changed my mind. Too difficult to predict individual seats but a good, clear win in my opinion.

    ALP 83
    LNP 64
    Ind 3

  9. I’m going off the notional 88 seats the Government curently has in the lower house.

    By State:

    NSW ALP losses: Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, probably Bennelong – all to Libs.
    NSW ALP gains: Hughes (Lib), Cowper (Nat).

    Vic ALP losses: Corangamite to the Libs, Melbourne to the Greens. The ALP isn’t suffering, so far as I can tell, much of a backlash there.
    Vic ALP gains: McEwen (Libs), perhaps La Trobe (Libs) as well.

    QLD ALP losses: Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Longman and Leichardt, all to the LNP. Between Rudd’s dumping and the RSPT, the bananabenders appear to be rather sour on Labor at the moment.
    QLD ALP gains: I don’t see any, although they might pick up Bowman, I guess.

    WA ALP losses: Swan (notional only), Hasluck and possibly (if I’m reading the local mood right in my home of Safety Bay) Brand. The RSPT hasn’t made Labor popular here, either, I can tell you – people are even muttering about secession (not all that seriously, but the mere fact that its being talked about is bad for Labor as the government) if it actually happens, a situation not helped by the West’s initial presentation (that rag) of the idea as Rudd’s plan to “slow WA’s economy” to the benefit of the Eastern States.

    WA ALP gains: If they’re lucky, they’ll pick up Canning. Allanah MacTiernan is fairly well thought of in WA, and has a chance against Randall. Better than 50-50 they’ll hold Canning AND Brand after the dust settles: the situation for them is bad, but it’s not quite that bad. They can forget about picking up Stirling, although Cowan’s a remote possibility.

    SA ALP losses: None that I can see. No backlash in sight, and the State Labor government was recently returned with a diminished majority. Voting in State elections tends to be cathartic that way.
    SA ALP gains: I doubt they’ll pick up much here, either, although Sturt’s an outside chance.

    Other: I’m tipping Labor to lose Solomon to the Country Libs.

    Overall, a good result for Labor is likely to look like this:

    Coalition: 67.
    Ind: 3.
    Green:0. (ALP holds Melbourne).

    A more likely result is:

    ALP: 76-77.
    Coalition: 69-70.
    Ind: 3.
    Green: 1.

    If the last couple of days goes poorly for Gillard (another BER report, anyone?), things could get ugly for the ALP:

    ALP: 73-74.
    Coalition: 72-73.
    Ind: 3.
    Green: 1.

    I can’t see Abbott forming a majority government under any circumstances short of a bona fide miracle (thank the deity of your choice), and probably not government at all. Further, I’m going to go right out on a limb here (or not), and predict that the Senate will look something like this:

    ALP: 33 (+1)
    Coalition: 35 (-2)
    Family First: 0 (-1, at last)
    IND: 1 (Xenophon’s not up for election).
    Green: 7 (+2).

    No more will Labor be able to point to a Coalition-dominated Senate as an excuse for all their backflips. However, the people whooping and hollering about 90+ seats can forget it: it isn’t going to happen.

  10. For those brave souls predicting Independent John Clements will roll the hugely popular incumbent (margin – 13.7%)…good luck. Clements has no profile outside of his home town where he is only known infamously for owing money left, right and centre. The lure of another Indpendent is appealing, but Clements ain’t your man.

  11. Mick @ 108

    You are either misrepresenting me or misunderstood.

    The worst case for Labor would be 71, 75 Coalition, 2 Ind, 1 Green.
    That is the absolute downside for the ALP, and upside for the coalition. 78 for the ALP tops but likely to be close to – a very slim majority.

  12. ACT
    HoR: No change
    Senate: 1 Labor 1 Liberal

    HoR: Coalition to gain Bennelong, Dobell, Gilmore, Greenway, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson
    Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens

    HoR: CLP to gain Solomon
    Senate: 1 CLP 1 Labor

    HoR: Coalition to gain Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton and Petrie
    Senate: 3 Coalition 3 Labor

    HoR: No change
    Senate: 3 Coalition 3 Labor

    HoR: No change
    Senate: 3 Labor 2 Coalition 1 Greens

    HoR: Coalition to gain Corangamite, Labor to gain La Trobe and McEwen
    Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens

    HoR: Coalition to gain Hasluck and Swan
    Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens

    HoR: Coalition 82, Labor 65, Independent 3
    Senate: Coalition 35, Labor 33, Greens 7, Independent 1

    Labor TPP: 48.7%

  13. @120

    I don’t think even Abbott in his wildest dreams would expect 82 seats….

    (Although take out Moreton, Capricornia and Blair and it doesn’t look as far fetched as it seems at first glance.)

  14. Labor 82

    Q’ld – lose – Bowman/Dawson/Dickson/Flynn/Leichardt
    NSW -lose – Macarthur/Macquarie/Robertson/Gilmore
    WA – lose – Swan

    Vic – win – McEwan/La Trobe/ Dunkley
    SA – win – Boothby

    my worry seats is my 2 ‘wins’ of Herbert & Dunkley , and not losing Hasluck/our Maxine

  15. Minority Labor Government

    74 ALP
    63 Liberal
    8 National
    4 Independents
    1 Greens

    Beginning from the notional positions:

    NSW – Liberals to win 5 (Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore and Lindsay) Independent to take Parkes from Nationals
    VIC – ALP to win McEwen, Greens to get home in a cliffhanger in Melbourne
    QLD – LNP to win 6 (Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde and Leichhardt)
    WA – Liberals to win 2 (Swan and Hasluck)
    NT – CLP to win Solomon
    SA, TAS, ACT – Status Quo

    Greens to win balance of power, winning a senate spot in every state, but not the ACT

  16. For anyone interested, I bet on 5 seats this time (10 last time, got 9/10), I got on early so got odds of $1.60 on Hindmarsh, $1.48 on Eden Monaro, $1.62 on Greenway, $1.70 on Dobell and $1.60 on Franklin.

  17. ALP:88

    Based on post redistribution-

    ALP lose 6:
    Robertson, Macquarie, Swan, Gilmore, Dawson
    & 1 out of {Macarthur, Bennelong, Hasluck or Flynn}

    ALP win 6:
    + McEwen
    + La Trobe
    + Hughes
    + Paterson
    + one roughie of {Sturt, Ryan or Cowper}
    + one real roughie comes through out of {Boothby, Fisher, Dunkley or Canning}

  18. Labor = 77 (To lose 5 in NSW, 6 in QLD, 2 in WA, 1 in Victoria (Melbourne); To gain 2 in Victoria, 1 in SA)
    Coalition = 68
    Independents = 4 (including Parkes)
    Greens = 1 (Melbourne)

  19. William’s seat predictions almost exactly align with my own.

    We differ only on Melbourne and Boothby.

    ALP 79 LNP 68 Ind 3

  20. QLD
    Definite LNP gains- Flynn, Dickson
    Probable LNP gains- Leichardt, Forde, Dawson, Herbert
    Pure toss ups- Petrie, Bonner
    Labor holds onto Moreton, Blair, Brisbane, Longman. No Labor gains.
    Overall big swing in QLD to LNP, of 4-6%

    Definite Liberal gains- Macarthur, Gilmore
    Probable Liberal gains- Robertson, Macquarie, Bennelong
    Pure toss ups- Lindsay, Cowper (Lib held), Paterson (Lib held)
    Labor holds onto Dobell, Greenway, Page, Eden Monaro.
    Overall, swing in NSW to Coalition will resemble swing across country. Big swings in Western Sydney to Libs, tiny swing overall to Labor on North Coast

    No definete gains for either party
    Probable Labor gains- La Trobe, McEwen
    Probable Green gain- Melbourne
    Pure toss ups- Dunkley, Corangamite
    Overall, swing of 3-6% to Labor

    No change. Overall, swing to Labor of 5-8%

    Northern Territory
    No definete gains
    Probable Liberal gain- Solomon
    Overall, small swing to LNP

    No Change

    South Australia
    No definite gains
    Pure toss up- Boothby
    Liberals hold onto Sturt, Mayo
    Overall, swing to Labor of 2-4%. Labor will give the Liberals a run for their money in Mayo, could even be biggest surprise of election

    Western Australia
    Definite Liberal gain- Stirling
    Pure toss ups- Canning, Hasluck
    Labor holds onto Brand, Liberals hold onto Swan
    Overall, small swing to LNP, however expect to see a small swing to Labor in several seats.

    Note: All based notionally

  21. The Greens are almost certain to have Milne and Siewert re-elected and Di Natale and Waters elected to the Senate. Whether Rhiannon, Wright and Hatfield Dodds are elected to the Senate is up in the air.

    The ALP is looking like retaining government. Melbourne is a real knife edge and the Liberals will come third in the 3cp and probably the primary. If the Greens can get ahead of the Libs they are a fighting chance in Sydney but the gap of about 5% might be a bit much. The Greens will probably come second in Grayndler as the gap with the Libs is only 2% and the redistribution has not done much about this.

  22. My Prediction is

    QLD 6 seat pick up for the LNP
    NSW 5 seat pick up by the Coalition
    Vic, Greens up 1, Libs up 1, ALP up 2 so no overall movement
    SA, ALP up 1
    NT, CLP up 1
    WA, LIB up 1
    Tas / ACT no change

    1 Green
    3 Ind
    73 Coalition (Lib / Nat / LNP and CLP)
    73 ALP

    On an interesting note the AEC is providing pre-poll votes on a daily breakdown


    The download is an excel spreadsheet.

    As of yesterday (18 August) 811, 190 people have voted prepoll. On top of this are postals.

    Interesting in the Federal Seat of Melbourne 15,029 have voted (3 times the average per seat). This could mean that 20,000 vote by Saturday by prepoll which would be just over 20% of the electorate.

    It will be a quiet afternoon for those of us handing out.

    The AEC will count prepoll on Saturday (night?) and will include the results during the night like an other booth.

    This is a great step forward but this is a massive early vote, but considering how bad the ALP campaign was in the early period this could effect pre-poll ovtes.

    Somwthing for the parties to consider in the future

  23. There are 12 seats with over 10,000 pre=poll votes


    Melbourne had more people vote prepoll yesterday than Curtin and a number of other seats have for the entire campaign

  24. Labor will win. Why? Because I hit the random number generator button on my 12 year old Casio fx-100s VPAM (still using the original battery) and it gave me an even number, which i said would mean an ALP win.

    How many seats will the ALP win?


    Again I asked my calculator if the ALP would get 8x or 7x seats. Gave me a random number, thus 7x. Then taking the middle digit on the next random number gave me the value for x, which was 7.

  25. [Again I asked my calculator if the ALP would get 8x or 7x seats. Gave me a random number, thus 7x. Then taking the middle digit on the next random number gave me the value for x, which was 7.]

    Oops. I meant to say that it gave me a uneven number, hence 7x.

  26. Mithrandir@141

    Again I asked my calculator if the ALP would get 8x or 7x seats. Gave me a random number, thus 7x. Then taking the middle digit on the next random number gave me the value for x, which was 7.

    Oops. I meant to say that it gave me a uneven number, hence 7x.

    Joe? Is that you?

  27. [Joe? Is that you?]

    Damn, you found me out. Please don’t tell Robb that half the numbers in the costings document are random numbers and the other half I got from breaking up PI.

  28. itsthevibe is spot on. libs at least 82. sad dark days ahead. labor in the wilderness. abbott in the lodge for a long long long time.

  29. Sticking with my predictions from last Sat: National TPP swing of 1% (51.7% TPP to ALP) made up like this:
    NSW 2.0%: Robertson, Macq, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong & Lindsay
    Qld 3.5%: Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leich
    Other (Swan, Hasluck, Solomon, Melbourne) with only McEwen as an ALP gain
    WA 2.5% but Vic -2% & SA -1.5% swings.

    NSW +6, Qld +6, Oth +2 ALP to Libs and Mel ALP to Greens gives:
    73 ALP and 73 Coalition 3 conservative Independents & 1 Green.

    Bennelong, Lindsay and Forde were against the betting markets at the time but looking much better guesses today than last week!

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