Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.
Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.
Labor has no hope in Boothby or Sturt. Abbott has made only one visit to SA, Gillard two. Forget about these chimerical gains. It’s status quo in SA.
LAB: 84
GRN: 0
etc..
There’ll be a last minute swing to incumbant – larger than expected due to only one term, literally the (in ballot room) “um … ahh … oh what the hell givem another chance”.
There’ll be big headlines about Labor’s dirty tricks and sandbagging to try and explain it.
Predict something similiar to nsw election 2007. In that one lot of angst/drama for only 3 seats lost.
Anyhow,
81 labour
66 liberal
3 ind
0 grn
80 is too popular, being 81 is too different.
ALP 80
Others can toss the coin for the rest.
“There’ll be a last minute swing to incumbant”
True, but I tend to agree with the likes of Peter “Mumble” Brent that Labor threw away their incumbancy advantage (or at least damaged it) by removing Rudd, and that this is basically a battle of two untested “Oppositions”.
My sense is that labor is sitting on about 51.5% of the two party vote and it has been stable for a couple of weeks.
IMO it could go wither way. Stay at 51.5, ALP have a narrow win, drift to coalition and a hung parliament/lib win.
Drift to ALP and we have close to status quo (on 07 seats).
My concern is the large green vote and whether the 80% prefernce flow will hold – if it gets down to 70 % may be disastrous.
My gut feel is that this week has been neutral or positive for ALP and with ads now ended, a couple of days reflection, the womens vote and the little mood for change outside of NSW and QLD and the actual prospect of voting for Abbott will have the undecideds drift oir fall ALP’s way.
I’d say an ALP TPP of between 52 and 52.5, 11 seats (off notional) to Coalition
4 seats to ALP. (Melbourne 50/50)
Say
ALP 80
Greens 1
Ind 3
Coalition 66
Worst case scenario 17 seats to Coalition (8 QLD 6 NSW 1 VIC 2 WA)
2 to Alp (VIC and SA)
Alp 73
Ind 3
Coaltion 74
BB Seph and I almost in complete agreement with predictions, if not with broader political philosophy!
It will be a temperate day in Hades before the ALP gets anywhere near 80 seats in this election!!
Even as it stands, BBPseph and I agree with this:
ALP: 72
Coalition: 74
IND: 3
GRN: 1
Minority Coalition with either 77 or 76 to 73/74 on the Left (Independent speaker, most likely… would love it to be Katter!! 🙂 🙂 :)).
“Mr Spoiker, Mr Spoiker, the member for Wentworth is prognosticating out of his bot-bot with this policy!”
“For the last time, it’s ‘Bob’ you wanker!! No siddown and shut the hell up Gillard!! Sheeeesh!”
The other thing about the parallel between the $1bn out of hospitals and $1bn out of PBS is that the former drives Abbott mental…we saw that in QT and in the health debate (he brought out the budget papers!!)
He hates attention being drawn to the those hospital cuts
Not so close as many ( media) commentators predict. I thought this at the beginning and nothing has changed my mind. Too difficult to predict individual seats but a good, clear win in my opinion.
ALP 83
LNP 64
Ind 3
I’m going to go against the flow and predict:
Coalition: 80
Green: 1
“Independent”: 3
ALP: 66
I’m going off the notional 88 seats the Government curently has in the lower house.
By State:
NSW ALP losses: Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, probably Bennelong – all to Libs.
NSW ALP gains: Hughes (Lib), Cowper (Nat).
Vic ALP losses: Corangamite to the Libs, Melbourne to the Greens. The ALP isn’t suffering, so far as I can tell, much of a backlash there.
Vic ALP gains: McEwen (Libs), perhaps La Trobe (Libs) as well.
QLD ALP losses: Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Longman and Leichardt, all to the LNP. Between Rudd’s dumping and the RSPT, the bananabenders appear to be rather sour on Labor at the moment.
QLD ALP gains: I don’t see any, although they might pick up Bowman, I guess.
WA ALP losses: Swan (notional only), Hasluck and possibly (if I’m reading the local mood right in my home of Safety Bay) Brand. The RSPT hasn’t made Labor popular here, either, I can tell you – people are even muttering about secession (not all that seriously, but the mere fact that its being talked about is bad for Labor as the government) if it actually happens, a situation not helped by the West’s initial presentation (that rag) of the idea as Rudd’s plan to “slow WA’s economy” to the benefit of the Eastern States.
WA ALP gains: If they’re lucky, they’ll pick up Canning. Allanah MacTiernan is fairly well thought of in WA, and has a chance against Randall. Better than 50-50 they’ll hold Canning AND Brand after the dust settles: the situation for them is bad, but it’s not quite that bad. They can forget about picking up Stirling, although Cowan’s a remote possibility.
SA ALP losses: None that I can see. No backlash in sight, and the State Labor government was recently returned with a diminished majority. Voting in State elections tends to be cathartic that way.
SA ALP gains: I doubt they’ll pick up much here, either, although Sturt’s an outside chance.
Other: I’m tipping Labor to lose Solomon to the Country Libs.
Overall, a good result for Labor is likely to look like this:
ALP:80.
Coalition: 67.
Ind: 3.
Green:0. (ALP holds Melbourne).
A more likely result is:
ALP: 76-77.
Coalition: 69-70.
Ind: 3.
Green: 1.
If the last couple of days goes poorly for Gillard (another BER report, anyone?), things could get ugly for the ALP:
ALP: 73-74.
Coalition: 72-73.
Ind: 3.
Green: 1.
I can’t see Abbott forming a majority government under any circumstances short of a bona fide miracle (thank the deity of your choice), and probably not government at all. Further, I’m going to go right out on a limb here (or not), and predict that the Senate will look something like this:
ALP: 33 (+1)
Coalition: 35 (-2)
Family First: 0 (-1, at last)
IND: 1 (Xenophon’s not up for election).
Green: 7 (+2).
No more will Labor be able to point to a Coalition-dominated Senate as an excuse for all their backflips. However, the people whooping and hollering about 90+ seats can forget it: it isn’t going to happen.
For those brave souls predicting Independent John Clements will roll the hugely popular incumbent (margin – 13.7%)…good luck. Clements has no profile outside of his home town where he is only known infamously for owing money left, right and centre. The lure of another Indpendent is appealing, but Clements ain’t your man.
Matt,
You’re only meant to have one guess – you’ve gone the gamut there!
@BigBob:
Sorry. Take my middle-of-the-road as my official “guess”, then:
ALP: 77.
coalition: 69.
Ind:3
Grn:1.
rolling average:
ALP: 79
LNP: 67
IND: 3
GRN: 1
It’s not changing much
Mick @ 108
You are either misrepresenting me or misunderstood.
The worst case for Labor would be 71, 75 Coalition, 2 Ind, 1 Green.
That is the absolute downside for the ALP, and upside for the coalition. 78 for the ALP tops but likely to be close to – a very slim majority.
William, what is the deadline for posting predictions?
You can do it on Sunday if you like, Just Me – this isn’t a formal competition.
ACT
HoR: No change
Senate: 1 Labor 1 Liberal
NSW
HoR: Coalition to gain Bennelong, Dobell, Gilmore, Greenway, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson
Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens
NT
HoR: CLP to gain Solomon
Senate: 1 CLP 1 Labor
Qld
HoR: Coalition to gain Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton and Petrie
Senate: 3 Coalition 3 Labor
SA
HoR: No change
Senate: 3 Coalition 3 Labor
Tas
HoR: No change
Senate: 3 Labor 2 Coalition 1 Greens
Vic
HoR: Coalition to gain Corangamite, Labor to gain La Trobe and McEwen
Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens
WA
HoR: Coalition to gain Hasluck and Swan
Senate: 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Greens
Overall
HoR: Coalition 82, Labor 65, Independent 3
Senate: Coalition 35, Labor 33, Greens 7, Independent 1
Labor TPP: 48.7%
More to the point, when is notorious fence-sitter Mumble going to post his prediction?
@120
I don’t think even Abbott in his wildest dreams would expect 82 seats….
(Although take out Moreton, Capricornia and Blair and it doesn’t look as far fetched as it seems at first glance.)
Labor 82
Q’ld – lose – Bowman/Dawson/Dickson/Flynn/Leichardt
NSW -lose – Macarthur/Macquarie/Robertson/Gilmore
WA – lose – Swan
Vic – win – McEwan/La Trobe/ Dunkley
SA – win – Boothby
my worry seats is my 2 ‘wins’ of Herbert & Dunkley , and not losing Hasluck/our Maxine
ALP 83
LNP 64
GNS 0
Greens not to win a lower house seat in my lifetime!
Minority Labor Government
74 ALP
63 Liberal
8 National
4 Independents
1 Greens
Beginning from the notional positions:
NSW – Liberals to win 5 (Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore and Lindsay) Independent to take Parkes from Nationals
VIC – ALP to win McEwen, Greens to get home in a cliffhanger in Melbourne
QLD – LNP to win 6 (Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde and Leichhardt)
WA – Liberals to win 2 (Swan and Hasluck)
NT – CLP to win Solomon
SA, TAS, ACT – Status Quo
Senate
Greens to win balance of power, winning a senate spot in every state, but not the ACT
124
Either you are wrong or you have a high chance of dying very soon. I would hope you are wrong.
For anyone interested, I bet on 5 seats this time (10 last time, got 9/10), I got on early so got odds of $1.60 on Hindmarsh, $1.48 on Eden Monaro, $1.62 on Greenway, $1.70 on Dobell and $1.60 on Franklin.
ALP:88
LNP:59
Ind:3
Based on post redistribution-
ALP lose 6:
Robertson, Macquarie, Swan, Gilmore, Dawson
& 1 out of {Macarthur, Bennelong, Hasluck or Flynn}
ALP win 6:
+ McEwen
+ La Trobe
+ Hughes
+ Paterson
+ one roughie of {Sturt, Ryan or Cowper}
+ one real roughie comes through out of {Boothby, Fisher, Dunkley or Canning}
Labor = 77 (To lose 5 in NSW, 6 in QLD, 2 in WA, 1 in Victoria (Melbourne); To gain 2 in Victoria, 1 in SA)
Coalition = 68
Independents = 4 (including Parkes)
Greens = 1 (Melbourne)
ALP 82, LNP 65, IND 3
52.4%->Lab
Else too stressful on Saturday night….
I hope the 82 include Bennelong.
William’s seat predictions almost exactly align with my own.
We differ only on Melbourne and Boothby.
ALP 79 LNP 68 Ind 3
QLD
Definite LNP gains- Flynn, Dickson
Probable LNP gains- Leichardt, Forde, Dawson, Herbert
Pure toss ups- Petrie, Bonner
Labor holds onto Moreton, Blair, Brisbane, Longman. No Labor gains.
Overall big swing in QLD to LNP, of 4-6%
NSW
Definite Liberal gains- Macarthur, Gilmore
Probable Liberal gains- Robertson, Macquarie, Bennelong
Pure toss ups- Lindsay, Cowper (Lib held), Paterson (Lib held)
Labor holds onto Dobell, Greenway, Page, Eden Monaro.
Overall, swing in NSW to Coalition will resemble swing across country. Big swings in Western Sydney to Libs, tiny swing overall to Labor on North Coast
VICTORIA
No definete gains for either party
Probable Labor gains- La Trobe, McEwen
Probable Green gain- Melbourne
Pure toss ups- Dunkley, Corangamite
Overall, swing of 3-6% to Labor
Tasmania
No change. Overall, swing to Labor of 5-8%
Northern Territory
No definete gains
Probable Liberal gain- Solomon
Overall, small swing to LNP
Canberra
No Change
South Australia
No definite gains
Pure toss up- Boothby
Liberals hold onto Sturt, Mayo
Overall, swing to Labor of 2-4%. Labor will give the Liberals a run for their money in Mayo, could even be biggest surprise of election
Western Australia
Definite Liberal gain- Stirling
Pure toss ups- Canning, Hasluck
Labor holds onto Brand, Liberals hold onto Swan
Overall, small swing to LNP, however expect to see a small swing to Labor in several seats.
Note: All based notionally
supun, does Labor hold Stirling notionally?
The Greens are almost certain to have Milne and Siewert re-elected and Di Natale and Waters elected to the Senate. Whether Rhiannon, Wright and Hatfield Dodds are elected to the Senate is up in the air.
The ALP is looking like retaining government. Melbourne is a real knife edge and the Liberals will come third in the 3cp and probably the primary. If the Greens can get ahead of the Libs they are a fighting chance in Sydney but the gap of about 5% might be a bit much. The Greens will probably come second in Grayndler as the gap with the Libs is only 2% and the redistribution has not done much about this.
My Prediction is
QLD 6 seat pick up for the LNP
NSW 5 seat pick up by the Coalition
Vic, Greens up 1, Libs up 1, ALP up 2 so no overall movement
SA, ALP up 1
NT, CLP up 1
WA, LIB up 1
Tas / ACT no change
Therefore
1 Green
3 Ind
73 Coalition (Lib / Nat / LNP and CLP)
73 ALP
On an interesting note the AEC is providing pre-poll votes on a daily breakdown
http://www.aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm
The download is an excel spreadsheet.
As of yesterday (18 August) 811, 190 people have voted prepoll. On top of this are postals.
Interesting in the Federal Seat of Melbourne 15,029 have voted (3 times the average per seat). This could mean that 20,000 vote by Saturday by prepoll which would be just over 20% of the electorate.
It will be a quiet afternoon for those of us handing out.
The AEC will count prepoll on Saturday (night?) and will include the results during the night like an other booth.
This is a great step forward but this is a massive early vote, but considering how bad the ALP campaign was in the early period this could effect pre-poll ovtes.
Somwthing for the parties to consider in the future
There are 12 seats with over 10,000 pre=poll votes
Canberra
Fraser
Gilmore
LINGIARI
Solomon
Hinkler
LEICHHARDT
Indi
McMillan
Melbourne
Durack
Swan
Melbourne had more people vote prepoll yesterday than Curtin and a number of other seats have for the entire campaign
[Definite Liberal gain- Stirling]
Liberals already hold Stirling.
@ Itep
yep, my mistake. Stirling is a Liberal hold, not Liberal gain
Labor will win. Why? Because I hit the random number generator button on my 12 year old Casio fx-100s VPAM (still using the original battery) and it gave me an even number, which i said would mean an ALP win.
How many seats will the ALP win?
77
Again I asked my calculator if the ALP would get 8x or 7x seats. Gave me a random number, thus 7x. Then taking the middle digit on the next random number gave me the value for x, which was 7.
rolling average (n=74)
ALP 79
LNP 67
IND 3
Grn 1
consistent all day
[Again I asked my calculator if the ALP would get 8x or 7x seats. Gave me a random number, thus 7x. Then taking the middle digit on the next random number gave me the value for x, which was 7.]
Oops. I meant to say that it gave me a uneven number, hence 7x.
Mithrandir@141
Joe? Is that you?
Mad Professor,
Thanks for the rolling averages.
ALP 77
Coalition 70
Indy 3
[Joe? Is that you?]
Damn, you found me out. Please don’t tell Robb that half the numbers in the costings document are random numbers and the other half I got from breaking up PI.
cuppa – s’cool
hoping the delphi technique works
i believe there may be a suprise in Swan…i reckon ALP 80 Coalition 66 Ind 3 greens 1
ALP 82
Ind 3 or 4
GRN 1
Just a “feeling”
itsthevibe is spot on. libs at least 82. sad dark days ahead. labor in the wilderness. abbott in the lodge for a long long long time.
Sticking with my predictions from last Sat: National TPP swing of 1% (51.7% TPP to ALP) made up like this:
NSW 2.0%: Robertson, Macq, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong & Lindsay
Qld 3.5%: Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leich
Other (Swan, Hasluck, Solomon, Melbourne) with only McEwen as an ALP gain
WA 2.5% but Vic -2% & SA -1.5% swings.
NSW +6, Qld +6, Oth +2 ALP to Libs and Mel ALP to Greens gives:
73 ALP and 73 Coalition 3 conservative Independents & 1 Green.
Bennelong, Lindsay and Forde were against the betting markets at the time but looking much better guesses today than last week!