The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
Are people suggesting that the greens preference flow will be stronger than 2007?
Andrew,
Publish and be damned.
[neilsen taking a big punt with such a poll, their reputation is on the line]
I think they’ve been spending the last 2 and a half years trying to get it right after the disastrously bad call in 2007.
Either way, this poll is a good morale boost but like all other marginal polls, I’d take it with a grain of salt.
I am waiting for the election eve Morgan phone jobby, now that is all about reputation
I was told today that private polling has Lindsay at 50/50, which means you would probably expect Labor to hang on there. I am confident that Labor will win on Saturday, but what the actual numbers are is anyone’s guess.
Although I’d love to see the back of Bob Baldwin! 🙂
Andrew, yes.
lets face it Bennelong was a once in a generation event. it was the outpouring of disdain for a pea-hearted PM from his own electorate on behalf of the country. something i will long cherish.
the galaxy pole of marginals is interesting… only 3.5% swing…. that has come in from over 5% last weekend…. I think labor would take 50/50 in Qld as a very good result given the circumstances… there is enough sandbagging out there to suggest that the galaxy marginals won’t all fall…. still expect 5-6 in Qld to go though…
I’ll wait and see what the methodology is on this poll.. if the methodology is sound, the sheer weight of numbers counts.
[Cowper and Paterson to ALP. #ausvotes]
Whew! Gilmore isn’t one of Neilson’s predicted ALP gains.
Now, I’m a mellow fellow again. 🙂
Mike.. yes Im tending to agree there.. 6 net in QLD.. but that might include an unexpected gain.
That’s surprising re Bennelong and Lindsay. Assuming 6 not 8 in Qld and no net loss in NSW then we are back to 83, which is in line with my post yesterday. One can always hope…
John Alexander would be a do-nothing MP, he’d spend more time on his tennis commentary and his tennis court business.
Perhaps in retrospect, Gillard’s announcement about the new rail line was a bad idea, because it involved the rather toxic NSW government too.
mike i think 8 qld losses is worst case scenario. even galaxy predicts 6
Even if we take out the most unlikely of gains, Labor would be on 74/75 seats which should put them within reach of forming government.
It is almost not worth watching the election with all these polls, betting odds, bluder sites..how was an election run when tech heads were not around to comment.
Did we really just wait for the day and watch the results come in?
And in this poll, will Eden-Monaro once again display its bellwetheriness?
evan, ALP is only looking at -2 in NSW. Gillard has done something right
Told you so re Boothby. 😀
Cowper and Paterson to ALP? Now I know it’s not accurate.
Interesting polls. I do feel, however, that there will be a lot of movement on the back of tomorrow night’s town hall event. If it goes badly for Julia, the momentum against her could swing this election into hung parliament territory. Conversely, a strong performance should seal the deal.
TSP
I firmly believe we should dispense with the effort of a general election and campaign and just have the election in eden monaro. Then distribure seats by prop representation
TSOP, I’ve been involved in Eden-Monaro and Mike Kelly will hold it strongly.
ltep, you really are something. yes, why not take 4-5 off Labor’s numbers. Seriously. There are seats in both columns that could go the other way. Get over yourself
nice new word TSOP.
actually the article only claims that a uniform swing of this amount would see labor losing 6 in total… and we all know swings aren’t uniform… would be VERY surprised to see Longman go LNP but not surprised on Flynn obviously… Bonner will be interesting in the next few days.. vasta well known.. Rudd needs to get himself along to Belmont school on Saturday and stand in line shaking hands … now slightly outside of his electorate but he is safe and it might get tight enough to matter!
Pebbles,
Abbott had a flsh visit to gut some fish or something. Chasing little slivers of votes again.
It’s been the Lib strategy for the last few days.
[Cowper and Paterson to ALP? Now I know it’s not accurate.]
It’s just an opinion poll, it just paints a rough picture of where the nation sits right now.
The galaxy numbers for Queensland are not as tragic as I feared – I might get some sleep tonight now.
COWPER!!! – Nats off the Coast!
stevet,
Tell me again on Saturday night.
I’d like to see Maxine as a Minister. Communications would be a good fit. If anyone would have the knowledge of how to address the ABC’s problems it would be her.
I hope that The PM has sacked the forward crew who though it was ok for her to be perched on an interogation stool at Rooty Hill. In a million years she should never been allowed by her people to accept such seating. A lectern is the appropriate stage equipment for a PM. She needs somewhre to place her glass of water FFS.
With regard to tomorrow night, The Prime Minister needs to resist any advice she may get to emulate the gorund level bonding with the Bogans lounge act of Mr Abbott at Rooty Hill. Mr Abbott will go Prime Ministerial this time, so should the incumbent.
TSOP i believe Solomon is becoming somewhat bellweatheresque.
[TSOP, I’ve been involved in Eden-Monaro and Mike Kelly will hold it strongly.]
I just meant in this Nielsen poll
[evan, ALP is only looking at -2 in NSW. Gillard has done something right]
I’d be pissed off if Maxine was lost to parliament though, and John Alexander certainly would do nothing for the schools in that area.
I’m not believing Cowper and Paterson will go to Labor – dodgy polls in those 2 seats.
Considering that Gillard hasn’t been to either yet, Labor private polling can’t be as good as tonight’s one.
Andrew I’m being optimistic ;). If we say the ALP doesn’t make those gains, they are still in a winning position. If the Coalition fails to make one or two of the stated gains it’s game over. This is good for Labor.
JJ keep your hung parliament in your budgie smugglers, it is a forgone conclusion, nothing is moving much all the polls are saying it.
ALP 51/49 on saturday, not even the old Julia could make it worse.
Go Paterson! Ra! Ra!
yes mike its 6 max, which is still OK for Labor
[Interesting polls. I do feel, however, that there will be a lot of movement on the back of tomorrow night’s town hall event. If it goes badly for Julia, the momentum against her could swing this election into hung parliament territory. Conversely, a strong performance should seal the deal.]
So one event will clinch the deal one way or another? I don’t believe it.
Hope Nielsen puts out actual numbers for each seat. A 4.6% margin of error could result in a lot of different outcomes.
It’ll be interesting though to see the line ball seats there are within the margin of error of changing
Soft Option I believe Gillard has called ‘shotgun’ and will come in second. she can see what trophyhead does.
Is Julia definitely going to the Brisbane thing tomorrow night?
I kinda wish she’d stay away, it smells to me like another setup to assist Abbott from his mates at Sky & Galaxy.
Gary
If it goes a badly as rooty hill i dont think there will be any complaining.
Corangamite for LNP
Interesting. Cheeseman is a placeholder and the Liberals picked a reasonable candidate and it looks as if the seat is on to go against the Victorian trend. Looks like there is enough interested voters to pick the party hack chaff from the worthwhile outcomes.
TSOP, I know it’s only an opinion poll, but this is naming certain seats. I can’t see Paterson falling to Labor. Simple.
I wonder if this is going to be dragged out and trumpeted by the media (I hope not – just a quick reference to it stating that Labor are on track will do)