The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
So nielson trying to outdo Galaxy….gotta love competiton..they should have called it the Great Big Marginal Poll
I’m sorry, but I really, really, really can’t see Labor gaining 6 seats on the night.
Cud
i cant count below 100
😉
Anything over 83 and Tony’s political career is toast. I know a lot of people are prediciting Scott Morrison as next leader, but I think it is bound to be MT once more. I think this is exactly why he decided mot to retire.
[I’m sorry, but I really, really, really can’t see Labor gaining 6 seats on the night.]
79 isn’t a gain.
[The seat of Melbourne was NOT polled.]
It’s either Labor or a green who will support Labor. Not worth individual polling at this late stage IMO. I’m not at all fussed if it drops to green so long as the ALP form government with a buffer of 4-5 seats min.
[drake,
Could someone please remind me what happened to John Howard and who did it to him?]
GG,
Happy to help.
The Rodent lost his seat – only the second PM to suffer such an embarrasing indictment – to none other than the lovely Maxine McKew.
Watching the LL news story of today’s events… some small signs of hubris from the Labor camp today
If you use a pendulum – this poll represents a swing of about 0.8% to the coalition nationwide
Is lateline worth watching? Still have 80mins to wait here in the west to see it. Trying to finalise a presentation for a conference tomorrow, watch you guys on here and the TV news…oh and have a quiet slurp of a good red..this damn Labor Govt keeps me going:-)
Drake,
And, was their dancing in the streets and a general feel that good had been done?
galaxy QLD marginals here.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/queenslands-key-marginals-deserting-labor-says-galaxy-poll/story-fn5z3z83-1225906542668
What do you mean glory?
I dont know why they’d send the Rodent anywhere. Its like wheeling Davros out – only scares the kiddies.
So 52/48 oakeshott. in line with the other polls
What is the margin of error on a poll of 500?
[some small signs of hubris from the Labor camp today]
No no no! Guys, don’t get smug. There are still 3 long days to go!
Quietly and cautiously optimistic is how you should be until polls close in WA on Saturday.
galaxy predicting loss of 6 marginals in qld cf. neilsens 8
Galaxy has 51-49 LNP in QLD
[Its like wheeling Davros out – only scares the kiddies.]
Davros is my nickname for Wilson Tuckey because they both look similar.
Leichhardt doesn’t surprise me in that lot.
[79 isn’t a gain.]
I meant gross gains, not net – like it says, 2 in NSW, 1 in SA, 3 in Vic.
For what it’s worth, I am finally beginning to allow myself some optimism regarding Boothby.
[Drake,
And, was their dancing in the streets and a general feel that good had been done?]
GG,
Right across this great nation.
Just think, if 5 of those seats don’t fall to LNP the Sunday headlines will read “Labor re-elected with an increased majority”. Now that would be sweet as bro.
Tsop
[go softly into the night]
This is scary, not the greens but the FF vote..
[Galaxy finds primary support for the Greens has doubled since the last election, to 11 per cent, while Family First has also increased, to 5 per cent. Support for independents and other minor parties fell to 2 per cent.]
Arch Bevis will hang on, despite the redistribution, so thats only 3.
he didnt lose in 1996 – he aint going anywhere.
[What is the margin of error on a poll of 500?]
4.6 per cent for a population size of 50,000
Seriously – Galaxy poll can kiss my ass.
Hang-on. How come this Super Poll is not yet on The Age and SMH websites
6 isn’t bad from Galaxy. Interestingly the LNP primary hasn’t increased. The Greens have doubled to 11 and Family First up to 5.
They’ve assumed preferences flow at the same rate as 2007, but the usual disclaimer should be applied that preferences might flow more tightly from the Greens as their primary increases.
[galaxy QLD marginals here.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/queenslands-key-marginals-deserting-labor-says-galaxy-poll/story-fn5z3z83-1225906542668 ]
this poll assumes preference flows like 2007 => won’t happen
[while Family First has also increased, to 5 per cent]
Wow, I would’ve thought the Fundamentalist Fascists’ supporters would’ve flocked to Tone!
GhostWhoVotes #Nielsen NSW seats include Bennelong and Lindsay and 2 others to LNP, Cowper and Paterson to ALP. #ausvotes
glory
thats only in those marginals, 51-49 qld wide would not be a good outcome for old tony
Arch will hang on and I would be very surprised to see Bonner and Petrie fall.
[I have been told that four of the QLD ALP to LNP seats are Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt. #Nielsen #ausvotes 1 minute ago via web]
Which would mean the return to parliament of 3 former Howard Government MPs.
neilsen taking a big punt with such a poll, their reputation is on the line
Incidentally, a 3.5% swing is largely what was shown by the Newspoll last week wasn’t it?
Bennelong. No way! Come on Maxine
TSP
80% of the FFs pref the libs, makes up a bit for the green/alp prefs
Speaking of Bennelong, a shocker from Centrebet:
Maxine & Alexander now tied on 1.88 each.
andrew, they have to live up to their 2007 reputation…
They’d better have Maxine lined up for a safe seat next time around, is all I can say.
ALP to win Paterson & Cowper?
Nah, I don’t buy that one. 😀
Scott Morrison is a turd and that is high praise, if that is the best the Libs can come up with they are doomed into Abbotts hell.