Crikey reports that what is presumably the last Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor’s lead at 51-49, down from 52-48 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two points to 44 per cent and Labor is down two to 39 per cent, with the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As always, it should be noted that Essential Research is a composite of two weeks’ combined polling: reading between the lines, the week-level results for Labor through the course of the campaign seem to have gone 55, 55, 53, 51, 51. Jason Whittaker at Crikey relates:
There’s little movement in personal approval ratings, with Julia Gillard climbing a point to 46% approval (her disapproval ratings remains steady at 40%), while Tony Abbott also jumps a point but remains behind on 41% approval (44% disapproval). Head-to-head, 46% believe Julia Gillard would make a better prime minister (up one point) ahead of Tony Abbott on 35% (up two points). Gillard’s attention on the economy in the final week of the campaign is backed by Essential. Asked which leader would better handle another financial crisis should it eventuate, 42% named the Labor leader while 35% nominated Tony Abbott and the Liberals.
Full report from Essential to follow shortly.
General:
• George Megalogenis in The Australian argues that while the mortgage belt “has less reason to be grumpy with Julia Gillard this year than it had been with John Howard in 2007”, owing to slightly lower interest rates and an even lower real debt burden than at that time, “the grey belt has a simple financial trigger to loathe Labor, and to long for a return to the Coalition’s brand of economic management, because superannuation nest eggs have been smashed over the past three years”. He also says Labor’s troubles in Queensland can in part be traced to the sharpest rises in petrol prices in the nation, “while Brisbane home owners have seen their capital gains party come to an end at a time when the rest of the nation was still booming”.
• Peter Hartcher of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that according to media buying agency MindShare, Labor spent $3.5 million on television advertising in capital cities during the second fortnight of the campaign compared with $3 million for the Coalition, after “sitting out” the second week of the campaign. A “close student of the TV ad industry” says Labor is screening four attack ads for every one positive, while the Liberal ratio is three to one.
• Steve Lewis of the Daily Telegraph reports an Auspoll survey finds Wayne Swan with a 54-46 lead over Joe Hockey as “best able to manage the budget”, 32 per cent rating the Building the Education Revolution program a success against 42 per cent who deem it a failure, and a narrow majority being comfortable with the Greens holding the balance of power.
Local:
Longman (Qld, Labor 1.7%): News Limited has obtained footage of an incident in which a Labor agitator was set upon by a campaigner for Liberal National Party candidate Wyatt Roy. As AAP reports it, Roy “can be seen just metres away on his phone during the altercation, but does not intervene”.
Dawson (Qld, Labor 2.4%): Labor candidate Mike Brunker has been involved in an altercation with 68-year-old Bowen Turf Club president Cyril Vains during a dispute about the former’s attempts to place election signs near the entrance to the racetrack. Brunker says the club president “king hit” him on the nose in an “unprovoked assault”. His account is backed by Whitsunday deputy mayor Rogin Taylor, who says Vains “seemed intent on fighting Mike”. The turf club says Vains has “scratches and a bruise from being punched in the face”.
Parkes (NSW, Nationals 13.7%): Barrie Cassidy referred to a strong independent prospect in Parkes on yesterday’s Insiders. This turns out to be John Clements, a former staffer to New England independent Tony Windsor, who has been talking up his chances. Windsor also rates Louise Burge “a good chance in Farrer”.
Lingiari (NT, Labor 11.2%): The management committee of the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has defied its leader in the Territory parliament, Terry Mills, by refusing to disendorse Lingiari candidate Leo Abbott for neglecting to inform the party he had pleaded guilty to breaching a domestic violence order.
[It’s been given a wide run in the mainstream media and I worry that disillusioned Labor voters may be more likely to follow his advice than on the conservative side of politics.]
Why do you think he did it? I don’t think it’ll have much impact at all.
Of course, the truly sweet thing of the coming victory is the blood-nose it will give the unscrupulous Scott Morrison. It will demonstrate once again that jobs, economic security and future prosperity will get the attention of voters. The disgraceful attempts by Morrison and Abbott to politicize immigration, to play on racial undertones and restore TPV’s will have got them nowhere.
briefly
I agree that the Libs scaremongering has been disgraceful, but in some quarters it has galvanised a vote for them.
briefly
[The Howard-Robb-Minchin-Abbott doctrine of doing as little as possible in relation to nearly everything of substance is about to be defeated for a second time.]
Speaking of whom, the AFR front page has a large picture of the Abbott campaign plane travelling from Sydney to Melbourne, in which Nick Minchin looms very large indeed (on a mobile phone too???)
Essential tracking was interesting. I’d have expected it to come up another point or two. Still think the Lib primary at 44 is too high. Hard to imagine it much above 42 at best.
Perhaps because I’m an oldtimer now, I liked the launch. Some of you mught have noticed a subtle tweaking of the wallpaper. No mention of Moving Forward, just Economic Strength and Better Schools and Hospitals. I suspect that finally they’ve realized their strength there. Previously the Liberals rated so much higher in polls/focus groups that Labor tiptoed over that one. Finally it has seeped through that their performance through the GFC was a huge plus and they need to tell people. That and Jobs (which could easily have gone south.
The intros by Swan and Hawker both played to this economic legitimacy and Gillard capitalised on it as well as working in a personal narrative to highlight her passions. The NBN was worked in very well. May not be enough time now (hope there is) but it ought to be accepted big time with the elderly and those in the regions.
Gillard is pretty impressive working without an autocue and notes.
[It came to a rathe abrupt halt after I suggested that one of them would be more comfortable as a Republican in Alabama and after another (who IS a tech head)decried the NBN and I asked him the question, “Transport yourself back 10 years and tell me what you would have been satisfied with and what you thought you’d be doing with the internet.”]
BK – glad you survived but great response. They’re not deep thinkers, are they? I despair for our grandkids if they get Abbott for 2 or 3 terms.
Bit like the bloke I prepolled with one day last week. He raved on so much about Labor’s debt and deficit and the big surplus Howard left that, in the end, I asked him what he’d do if he lost all his cash and investments and was unable to qualify for a pension. He said I’d have to mortgage my properties. I said ‘yes, and that’s what the Govt. had to do’.
A dumb look came over his face when he realised why his argument about debt, during a GFC and loss of tax revenue, was ridiculous.
I just hope I don’t get him again this week.
William
If you are able to tell us, which polling organisation do you value the most at this point?
@jaundiced view
If you lean left, I do hope that you’re in a safe seat where your Reps vote makes no difference. If Abbott gets in, I fear the bias of the ABC will become more entrenched and leave us with very little in the way of left-wing mainstream media in this country. Fairfax will be the closest we’ve got and that’s not saying very much at all.
[I think William he misspelt four.]
Yes, I realized as soon as I hit the button…
[I have been doing a bit of walking]
On the side of a parked truck on my lunchtime walk:
[Astron Plastics
“Breathing new life into plastics”]
one thing about the abc that makes me cross is that we on this side cannot watch it
i feel insulted every time i watch it and it will take me many years to get over that.
i dont think they get it the actually we are also watchers of the abc when you loose an audience it takes years to get it back
its like a product if its not to your liking you dont bother with it it takes a lot of persuading to come back to it.
i would like to see 24 / scrapped or sold because it will just be repeat after repeat of their program Australian story, 4 corners etc anything that has a little bit of news attached to it, So its not going to be of much value to society only when the the news is read and channel one did that very well so why bother seems a big ego trip ., after all look at our population is small compared to the U S as as an example who sits in front of the tv all day and if you did you would may be like some good drama,
On top of the polls William listed earlier, there was also the Morgan 51.5/48.5. They’re all within good range of each other.
Oakeshott Country, I hope you were right about Cowper, but don’t bet on it
@Laocoon
[(on a mobile phone too???)]
Mobile phone use on planes has actually been shown to be quite safe. The international regulations are just slow in playing catch-up.
[44
JJ Fiasson
Anyone care to speculate on what impact Latham’s ‘leave the ballot blank’ intervention will have? It’s been given a wide run in the mainstream media and I worry that disillusioned Labor voters may be more likely to follow his advice than on the conservative side of politics.]
It will have little or no effect at all on anyone who cares about their vote. There are always some who are terminally antagonistic to the political process – the egotistical, the bitter, the sad, the angry. But they are hardly likely to take any notice of Latham, who, if he is anything at all these days, is a mere parody of the delusional narcissist. He is scorned by one and all, and deservedly.
jv
I know our politics can be a like the choice between twiddle dee and twiddle dum, but hey you have a choice in the safety and comfort of your little world without fear or favour. Being obnoxious is so unbecoming!
@jaundiced view 49
Don’t be a loon. Even if you can’t find someone to put at the TOP of your ballot, just have a look at the loony minority candidates in most electorates – I’m sure you’ll find someone you want to put at the BOTTOM of your ballot!
[I’m a little disturbed that I have already decided to do what Latham is now espousing, in the Reps anyway.] 49 JV
Surely you wouldn’t want to be on the same side as Latho, JV?
[Anyone care to speculate on what impact Latham’s ‘leave the ballot blank’ intervention will have? It’s been given a wide run in the mainstream media and I worry that disillusioned Labor voters may be more likely to follow his advice than on the conservative side of politics.]
Coalition voters won’t waste their vote because they want their man in there to save them from the ALP. However, the ALP is in government and are probably more likely to suffer a backlash.
Latham doesn’t give a stuff about the nation. He was paid a big fat cheque to run negative in the ALP campaign. That is why 9 didn’t sack him. They needed this to run for the last week. Strategic crap. The message was targetted at those most likely to listen to a former Labor man(ALP voters), to lodge a protest vote.
[58 JJ Fiasson
Posted Monday]
Well jj that is not going to happen is it.
JJF
[Anyone care to speculate on what impact Latham’s ‘leave the ballot blank’ intervention will have?]
My 2 cents is that I think the main impact is a reminder to the electorate, who would generally congratulate themselves for their wisdom and foresight in having given Latham the heave-ho 6 years ago
They will look around at whether any of the candidates look like a Latham – conclude that one Tony Abbott is a (fitter) version of same. Come Saturday, give him him the heave-ho too
“Boatman” is looking like Mr Handshake
are you aloud to tell people to put in a dummy vote
[It will have little or no effect at all on anyone who cares about their vote. There are always some who are terminally antagonistic to the political process – the egotistical, the bitter, the sad, the angry. But they are hardly likely to take any notice of Latham, who, if he is anything at all these days, is a mere parody of the delusional narcissist. He is scorned by one and all, and deservedly.]
I guess that’s my point. Those antagonistic to the political process likely lie in the undecided category. These usually break to the side perceived to be winning in the last week. Therefore it could hurt Labor’s vote, as it seems they’ll win this week from here.
sorry allowed
JJ Fiasson@58
I’m in Robertson, so it isn’t going to make an iota of difference. Anyway, how can I choose between “Brian Harradine” and “Pauline Hansen”? I will be casting a purposeful vote in the Senate for the left.
72 JJ Fiasson
Posted Monday, Aug
i think you should change your avator its making you depressed
i thought that as soon as i saw it on your sight, is that you or just a picture of how your feel get something a little more cheery
@lizzie 36,
What annoys me most about the ABC is that I KNOW there are still a few decent journalists there. But for every one of those there is a Fran Kelly – who is so biased her very name has become a standing joke 🙁
Essential Research poll here.
my say
Latham got paid to give his opinion, and we all know about opinions.
They are like backsides, everyone has one!!
Gorgeous Dunny@67
It’s a bad look, I admit. But I’m sure his reasons are different to mine. He’s no lefty. 😆
so william with the three polls its not as simple as dividing by three
You can wager up to $838 at $1.38 on Betfair just now.(less 5% of your profit at the end). Juicy.
JV
Being a lefty unfortunately doesn’t get the votes. Most parties take the middle ground.
The world is no Utopia, and doesn’t look like getting any more fair in the future.
The minions running the US took their country and the rest of the world to the brink. No revolution occurred. Business as usual, and it looks like the wonderful citizenry are still veering to the right. That is how it is at the moment.
Wasting your vote doesn’t change anything.
Randy – Sekfy at 4.00 isn’t bad value
well said Victoria @82
jjf, I wouldn’t worry about Latham. He is means nothing these days. The undecided and disengaged are not likely to be angry about anything, just too absorbed by their own affairs to take much interest in politics. Come election day, they will attend and tick the box for the status quo: it is the easiest choice to make. To refrain from filling in a ballot is also making a statement too. It is a way of saying “You mob are all the same.” It implies the voter has reflected on things, made an evaluation of the contenders, and has an opinion to declare. This does not sound to me like the undecided and uninformed last-minute-voter.
Yes its is george dont wast your vot jv i saw you said you where liberal once.
i noted glen was to it must be like changing football teams very hard
our son was so green in younger days and i would say dont waste your vote they will not get up in the lower house,. Now he agrees with me and votes labor.
Thanks George.
We can all have views on others’ decisions of how to cast their votes, but it is a personal decision in the end. Personally, I think casting a blank vote or an informal vote is a huge cop-out, regardless of whether your vote will ‘matter’ or not.
JV went
Far more than a little disturbed is a more accurate description.
[ Why do you think he did it? I don’t think it’ll have much impact at all.
]
ltep, Latham did it so he could look at the informal vote stats and claim to have had an influence on the election. Like many acts of vandalism, it is ego-inspired.
#
[89
dave
JV went
I’m a little disturbed
Far more than a little disturbed is a more accurate description.]
LMAO
Robert Hawke made it very clear i thought that was great they way he used the car and the horse that appealed to all levels i dont know if any of you got that.
[William
If you are able to tell us, which polling organisation do you value the most at this point?]
The best response I can offer is to compare the results of final polls to ensuing election results. This is an average of results going back to 2004 – the pollsters’ bias to Labor (all had one, at least so far as averaging 2PP goes) and their average deviation either way from the result.
Newspoll: average 0.9% bias in favour of Labor, average error 1.3%
Galaxy: 0.6% and 0.7%
Nielsen: 1.6% and 2.4%
Morgan phone: 1.0% and 2.0%
Morgan F2F: 4% and 4% (the two are equal as each poll was biased to Labor)
[ Libs have done an email burst seeking donations, saying late Labor launch shows a “cynical disregard for the Australian people” #ausvotes]
Desperation? The journos found the launch ‘average’ – I think they are so cynical by this stage that they’d need a fire cracker up their whatsit to get any reaction.
If we’re expecting them to go after Abbott’s costings, etc. I think we’ll be disappointed
Anyone revising their seat predictions?
JuliaG on 7.30 Report tonight.
Dee
Posted Monday, August 16, 2010 at 2:13 pm | Permalink
“From the enlightened ones on this blog. What does this poll mean for us?”
unfortunate it means what i’ve said for 3 weeks
there is about 16 marginal seats quite close and at risk , and since 2nd week leaks trend has gone our way up from that bottoms , BUT th polls not back to pre leaks first week and prior levels
swings will be all over place in Sydney fringe and Q’ld , and we look for anti swings all not to land in our about 16 marginals risks , and unlikely to hit all of thems So our posituin much much better thn Libs
Thanks William.
So are there any last minute polls coming up?
@Dee/95,
Me still saying 80 seats.