Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports that what is presumably the last Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor’s lead at 51-49, down from 52-48 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two points to 44 per cent and Labor is down two to 39 per cent, with the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As always, it should be noted that Essential Research is a composite of two weeks’ combined polling: reading between the lines, the week-level results for Labor through the course of the campaign seem to have gone 55, 55, 53, 51, 51. Jason Whittaker at Crikey relates:

There’s little movement in personal approval ratings, with Julia Gillard climbing a point to 46% approval (her disapproval ratings remains steady at 40%), while Tony Abbott also jumps a point but remains behind on 41% approval (44% disapproval). Head-to-head, 46% believe Julia Gillard would make a better prime minister (up one point) ahead of Tony Abbott on 35% (up two points). Gillard’s attention on the economy in the final week of the campaign is backed by Essential. Asked which leader would better handle another financial crisis should it eventuate, 42% named the Labor leader while 35% nominated Tony Abbott and the Liberals.

Full report from Essential to follow shortly.

General:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian argues that while the mortgage belt “has less reason to be grumpy with Julia Gillard this year than it had been with John Howard in 2007”, owing to slightly lower interest rates and an even lower real debt burden than at that time, “the grey belt has a simple financial trigger to loathe Labor, and to long for a return to the Coalition’s brand of economic management, because superannuation nest eggs have been smashed over the past three years”. He also says Labor’s troubles in Queensland can in part be traced to the sharpest rises in petrol prices in the nation, “while Brisbane home owners have seen their capital gains party come to an end at a time when the rest of the nation was still booming”.

• Peter Hartcher of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that according to media buying agency MindShare, Labor spent $3.5 million on television advertising in capital cities during the second fortnight of the campaign compared with $3 million for the Coalition, after “sitting out” the second week of the campaign. A “close student of the TV ad industry” says Labor is screening four attack ads for every one positive, while the Liberal ratio is three to one.

• Steve Lewis of the Daily Telegraph reports an Auspoll survey finds Wayne Swan with a 54-46 lead over Joe Hockey as “best able to manage the budget”, 32 per cent rating the Building the Education Revolution program a success against 42 per cent who deem it a failure, and a narrow majority being comfortable with the Greens holding the balance of power.

Local:

Longman (Qld, Labor 1.7%): News Limited has obtained footage of an incident in which a Labor agitator was set upon by a campaigner for Liberal National Party candidate Wyatt Roy. As AAP reports it, Roy “can be seen just metres away on his phone during the altercation, but does not intervene”.

Dawson (Qld, Labor 2.4%): Labor candidate Mike Brunker has been involved in an altercation with 68-year-old Bowen Turf Club president Cyril Vains during a dispute about the former’s attempts to place election signs near the entrance to the racetrack. Brunker says the club president “king hit” him on the nose in an “unprovoked assault”. His account is backed by Whitsunday deputy mayor Rogin Taylor, who says Vains “seemed intent on fighting Mike”. The turf club says Vains has “scratches and a bruise from being punched in the face”.

Parkes (NSW, Nationals 13.7%): Barrie Cassidy referred to a strong independent prospect in Parkes on yesterday’s Insiders. This turns out to be John Clements, a former staffer to New England independent Tony Windsor, who has been talking up his chances. Windsor also rates Louise Burge “a good chance in Farrer”.

Lingiari (NT, Labor 11.2%): The management committee of the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has defied its leader in the Territory parliament, Terry Mills, by refusing to disendorse Lingiari candidate Leo Abbott for neglecting to inform the party he had pleaded guilty to breaching a domestic violence order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. [ jv i saw you said you where liberal once. ]

    Once a liberal allways a liberal, it just lays dormant like a nasty pox waiting to burst forth 🙂

  3. ‘Casting a purposeful vote…..’

    Ha! You have just one vote and it is no more purposeful or valuable than any other….

  5. [The Federal Opposition has seized on reports that the Government’s planned mining tax might not raise the $10 billion that has been forecast.

    Toro Energy chairwoman Erica Smythe is a member of the Government’s taskforce to implement the proposed resource rent tax.

    She is quoted in The Australian newspaper saying she has not seen any modelling and she is sceptical it would raise $10 billion over three years.]

    Oh wow, so this is what Robb is babbling on about. I am sceptical that she is not a Liberal stooge. 😛

  6. @William

    I do wonder if this pollster bias towards Labor has more to do with the strength of incumbency. i.e. The undecideds break for the devil-they-know when it comes to placing an actual vote. Hence the overinflated final poll figures for Labor in 2004 and 2007.

    That said, the strength of incumbency may be somewhat reduced due to the Gillard/Rudd factor.

    I realise it’s very hard for you to comment on this as we have no precedent in recent years, although perhaps state elections / polling disparities could serve as a basis for one.

  9. ruawake

    We should get Robb to answer how much mining tax will the coalition collect over three years. ……………Crickets!

  10. I put that “bombshell” on the previous blog during TA’s press conf at mid-day and everyone ignored me.
    I feel a little worthless today.

  11. [So are there any last minute polls coming up?]

    They will all release another poll on Friday/Saturday morning. There’s also that automated telphone thing being released tomorrow.

  15. [Personally, I think casting a blank vote or an informal vote is a huge cop-out]

    I don’t see why. If you don’t believe that any candidate deserves your vote, why vote for one anyway? A no-vote is a way of expressing that you are dissatisfied with what’s on offer or the political process. “None of the above” is just as legitimate a view as a vote for a candidate. This should be extended to voting in the first place, which should not be compulsory.

  17. [Tone’s on QandA tonight 9:35pm. Should be an interesting affair.]

    JJ, knew that, but I’d still rather see him on 7:30 Report where all the questions are from a professional, intelligent interviewer (KO) and not from lame-ass schmoes in the audience.

  18. These figures from the Essential poll are illuminating, when 66% have seen TV advertising:

    Q. Over the last few weeks, which of the following types on involvement have you had in the Federal election campaign?

    Met one of my local candidates 6%

    Seen election advertising on Youtube or Facebook 5%

    Been door-knocked by a political party 3%

    Been to a political meeting or event 1% (the same as the number involved in actual campaigning.)

  19. An Open Letter

    We the undersigned economists are convinced by the evidence that the coordinated policies of the Australian Labor Government have prevented the Australian economy from a deep recession and prevented a massive increase in unemployment. Unlike most OECD economies we have come out of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent world recession with only one quarter of negative GDP growth and a smaller increase in unemployment.

    We note that during a recession automatic stabilizers (increase in total unemployment benefit payments and decreased tax revenues) lead to an increased government budget deficit. In almost all the OECD countries there has been a massive increase in unemployment and in budget deficits. In Australia both have been trivial by comparison.

    The Government Fiscal Stimulus package that was introduced was carefully crafted and implemented in a clever sequence. The first stage, the payment of $900 to most households, helped to boost confidence in the retail industry.

    The second stage of the stimulus package (the Building Education Revolution, and the First Home Owners Grant) boosted the construction industry and created thousands of new jobs. Besides the employment effect, it also provided a much needed increase in the stock of public capital (better and greener homes, better schools) and prevented a sudden fall in house prices.

    The last stage of the fiscal stimulus package (as it takes time to prepare plans etc.) was the infrastructure program that increased employment as well as increasing the stock of public capital and helping to overcome the significant short fall in Australian public infrastructure, and hence would increase future productivity, taxable capacity and the ability to repay public debt.

    Just as a major corporation goes into debt to invest in its stock of capital, so does a government. Just as many householders have a debt to a bank or mortgage company, so does a government. A government has a budget deficit and a government debt, but it also has capital assets (roads, ports, better equipped schools, Broadband, etc.).

    The performance of the Australian economy has been outstanding: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for the Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have show-cased Australia as a model economy.
    We hope that the economic achievements of the Australian Labor Government will be recognized by the population.

  20. Thought that some of the comments on the last thread about the shrillness of Grahame Morris were quite amusing.

    What i would like to see is the first appearance of Michael Kroeger on Lateline after the election. 🙂

  22. triton

    Yes, you are right in one regard, but not to vote on idealogical grounds, would be pointless because political parties usually have to take in a wide variety of positions which we do not always agree with in its entirety.

    Therefore, vote for the better overall option that may be available, I always say.

  23. triton, I obviously disagree but I won’t launch into another debate on voluntary voting.

    I think a lot of the ‘problems’ with disenfranchisement would be solved by a move to PR.

  24. [I do wonder if this pollster bias towards Labor has more to do with the strength of incumbency. i.e. The undecideds break for the devil-they-know when it comes to placing an actual vote. Hence the overinflated final poll figures for Labor in 2004 and 2007.]

    Could be. However, my averages include state as well as federal polling, where Labor was invariably the incumbent. The Newspoll and Galaxy samples are mostly state polls; Nielsen is about half and half; Morgan is entirely federal.

  25. william sorry but that is not martha or arthur to me bet none of you have heard that saying be fore.
    means cannot understand a word of it

  26. @victoria

    I keep thinking a great way to unhinge the unhinged one would be for a male member of the audience to ask Tone ‘Do you find me attractive?’

    The inevitable squirming in response to such a question would be interesting for sure, and he’d have to tread very carefully in response. That’s assuming Tony Jones didn’t intervene to save him from responding.

  27. [I’m a little disturbed that I have already decided to do what Latham is now espousing, in the Reps anyway.]

    I don’t mind if Lib leaners do it (then they won’t vote lib out of protest) but I don’t want Labor people to do it — voting in Abbott out of prostes is like chopping off your foot because you have a sore toe!

  30. William.

    I could be misinterpreting the information you have provided, but does this suggest that the polling is generous to Labor, but not in fact accurate???

  33. if you divide it you get 52.48 i think with the three and i know its not how you do it
    but well thats sort of average add three divide by three.

  34. victoria

    I think the way Tone walks suggests (legs wide apart) that he has some unresolved issues in the chimpanzee department

  35. @Musrum 107

    Ah, what would all those professors know about economics!

    After all, Tony Abbott has TWO degrees in economics, and yet he knows bugger all!

  37. my say@86

    jv i saw you said you where liberal once.

    Now, now my say, it’s not nice to make things up about other posters. I have never said any such thing, nor have I voted Liberal in my life, and never preferenced them before Labor.

    This tendency or desire to ascribe other party affiliations because of criticism of Labor, due to a genuinely held belief that the party has deserted decent policy-making for the sake of power, is mis-placed.

  39. [victoria
    Posted Monday, August 16, 2010 at 2:52 pm | Permalink
    William.

    I could be misinterpreting the information you have provided, but does this suggest that the polling is generous to Labor, but not in fact accurate??]]]

    DO YOU STILL STAND BY WHAT YOU SAID ON NEWS RADIO?

  40. [Dr Smyth has over 30 years experience in the mineral and petroleum industries. She was Principal Geologist for BHP Minerals Limited (including several years in uranium exploration) and BHP-Utah Minerals International’s Beenup Project Manager, Manager Gas Market Development WA for BHP Petroleum and, more recently, General Manager – Corporate Affairs for Woodside Petroleum Limited.]
    No so much a Liberal stooge but a lifelong member of the mining industry who are looking after their self interests. Which means to get the Rabbott over the line.
    She will be rewarded handsomly. What does it say about her integrity?
    She is on a government committee & blabs about a ‘Possibility’. Nothing concrete. She is voicing ‘her’ doubts. Not fact.
    Great way to muddy the atmosphere whilst in a campaign whirl. Watch the Rabbott repeatedly refer to it tonight.

  41. victoria

    He reminds me of those wild west cowboys who stalk each other, hands out at the side, ready for the quick draw.

  42. [jv i saw you said you where liberal once.

    Now, now my say, it’s not nice to make things up about other posters. I have never said any such thing, nor have I voted Liberal in my life, and never preferenced them before Labor.]

    very very sorry i do apologise i thought that what was meant that you could not vote for tone etc.

    gee now i am really upset sorry that i upset you teary

  43. I can see the Brisbane seats being absolutely critical to Labor’s survival. If the losses in Qld. are contained to just the 5 Qld regional seats the seat by seat markets say Labor will lose, plus Gilmore/Lindsay/Macquarie/Macarthur/Robertson in NSW, and Solomon/Swan/Hasluck elsewhere, with McEwen going the other way, we end up with Labor losing a net 12 from a notional 88, to be left with 76. (I’m assuming a Green in Melbourne would support Labor). If the Liberals start to break into seats like Petrie and Brisbane as well, or if NSW marginals like Page/Eden-Monaro/Bennelong fall as well, Labor is gone. I think this is going to be very, very close.

    In the event that Labor does lose, the blame should be laid with the NSW and Qld state governments. It looks like there is going to be a strong correlation between the deep unpopularity of these governments and any Federal anti-Labor swing.

  44. [reminds me of those wild west cowboys who stalk each other, hands out at the side, ready for the quick draw.]
    may be its the bike riding we have a neighbour that rides a moter bike and has a similar walk

  45. Interesting. Taking Galaxy’s poll as a 51-49 ALP national poll, after we average the 5 pollsters (Newspoll, Neilsen, Morgan Phone, Essential, Galaxy) we get

    Mean = 51.6-48.4 ALP
    Median = 51-49 ALP
    Mode = 51-49 ALP

  46. William i have to go out the car company are lending me a car till mine comes

    so do you still stand by what you said on news radio

  48. @victoria

    Abbott has said that he finds gay men threatening. I get the feeling he has some unresolved issues with human beings in general. Therefore I think such a question would make him incredibly uncomfortable.

  49. I agree Oakeshott Country, but I live amongst them, I was talking to one person, who said had to vote National, when asked why couldn’t answer me, afraid there is alot of that

  50. [ Tony has some underlying unresolved issues dealing with his sexuality? ]

    One only has to examine his history, one of confusion, wanted to be a priest, celibacy was not for him, had a child he didn’t know about, found out it wasn’t his after all, hey it’s a common occurrence.
    Expressed discomfort with gay people, talked openly about the lack of nooky on the campaign trail, likes the dick tog look, likes the tight lycra look, would seek to take away a woman’s right to control her own body, has talked about the gift of virginity and sex before marriage and the list goes on and on.

    The man has issues alright.

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