Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.

News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.

UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.

In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19

  3. Antony

    If you are still on, what are your thoughts of using small samples of 200 voters in each of the 20 seats to determine a total state(s) and hen tnational figure by which trends are then determined?

  5. JV @ 690 – How rational is most political thinking? So many voters make judgements based on whether they “like” or “dislike” a leader: the leader in question being someone they have never met, and about whom, objectively, they know next to nothing. And irrational thinking may turn out to be right (eg “I won’t vote for Richard Nixon, because he looks like a crook”.)

  9. I can’t see how Galaxy can come up with a national TPP anyway if the polls are only for marginals. That sounds pretty dodgy.

    Andrew

    On the uneven swing topic, I should add that on average it would favour Labor the more uneven the swing was. The seats are in a rough Bell curve so more are on small margins than large, meaning an even swing should capture more seats than an uneven one.

  10. Perhaps the one conclusion we can make about this poll is that it is bloody useless.

    Pollsers: either poll an individual seat, or the whole nation. Don’t try to mash the two.

  11. Old Tom:
    [What is the thinking on Corangamite? Will Labor retain it?]

    Despite the statewide swing to Labor, I suspect that Corangamite may well buck the trend. The high profile and “fresh, young, moderate” image of the Lib candidate, coupled with my perception that Cheeseman seems to be generally regarded as a bit of a mug, is enough for me to slightly favour it to fall. (With that said, there may well be enough ALP gains elsewhere in the state to offset it.)

  12. as far as ‘election mail” goes, on average here in marginal McEwen we are getting 1 or two a day, and have been for the last few weeks. Early on it was running close to 2 for the Libs to every one for Labor. It has evened out a bit in the last week. The coalition stuff tends to be expensive glossy multipage “booklets” (obviously not aiming at the green vote!). Most/all of the labor material is single sheet.

    Nothing from anyone else (not even Family First, who bombarded us last time). I’ve run into both the Labor and the Greens candidate at the Diamond Creek shopping centre once each in recent times, but no door to door “pressing the flesh” so far ( though maybe our 60+ metres of 1 in 4 slope driveway scares them off!)

  13. Well,at least we know why Abbott wants to be PM.

    The pay increase will mean the poor guy doesn’t have to slum it with the rest of us in a caravan park.

    Seriously, what the hell does he do with his susbstantial salary? I know North Shore property ain’t cheap, but he’s been on an MP’s (and Minister’s) salary for a long time now.

    As to everybody’s Muslim friends who can’t vote for an unbeliever – unless they are in Gillard’s electorate, it shouldn’t matter. You just have to remind them they vote for a local member – not a Prime Minister!

  14. [Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative.]
    So do we expect a 70% informal vote from the Westies?

  17. Independently Thinking,

    All muslims should read this then. They might not be so happy to vote for the dark side! 😉

    [Tony Abbott’s war on hardline Muslims ]
    [TONY Abbott says he will take a stand against an extreme Muslim group he describes as “peddlers of hate” who have defamed Australian values.

    In an exclusive interview with the Herald Sun, the Liberal leader revealed that if he won next Saturday’s federal election he would move to prosecute the radical Hizb ut-Tahrir.

    And an Abbott government would order intelligence and security agencies to keep closer tabs on the group and others like it, which he said “gives aid and comfort to terrorism”.

    He would also look to block visas to enter Australia for its members, leaders, sympathisers and supporters.]
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/tony-abbotts-war-on-hardline-muslims/story-fn5ko0pw-1225905106475

  18. I too am gobsmacked by Abbott’s borrowing $710,000 just recently. I know it’s none of my business but I am intrigued. I have earnt way less than him over the years. Weird.

  21. Dio @ 709

    “On the uneven swing topic, I should add that on average it would favour Labor the more uneven the swing was. The seats are in a rough Bell curve so more are on small margins than large, meaning an even swing should capture more seats than an uneven one.”

    Not so, because seat distributions don’t follow a bell curve exactly. Do a quick thought experiment: a government has lots of marginal seats, an opposition only a few. If there is no swing in any seat, and therefore no swing overall, no seats will change hands. But if there is zero overall swing, produced by different swings in different seats cancelling each other out, you would expect the government to lose seats. (Easy to demonstrate mathematically.)

  22. Let’s wait and see what is reported tomorrow. Someone said earlier thay Sky reported the poll as being Coalition 51.4%. That’s the figure you get if you average the five state polls of 800, but the 2PP’s in each poll are for the specified 4 electorates, not for the state, so you can’t average them to get a national figure.

    But to get a national figure, you should apply the uniform swing from each state’s poll of 800 to the result last time. And if you do that, the National 2PP comes out at ALP 51%. On the swings reported in the poll, the state figures 2PP for Labor are NSW 51.3, VIC 55.9, QLD 45.0, SA 52.4 and WA 44.6. The NSW and VIC figures mean the ALP 2PP must be above 50.

  23. David

    I think there an assumption that minorities/”ethnics”/new migrants etc… tend to vote Labor, just as there is the assumption that old people vote liberal. Of course there are exceptions

    His was just a cautionary tale not to take that for granted…

  27. Panic on PB tonite whilst I in peace watch th footy ,and th usual anti Labor bloggers nuancing there ‘remorse’ (and will do so on 21/8 when we sweetly win)

    Trend wise over last 3 weeks things improving for Labor , and therefore think Labor is still in front but MSN is highliting whatever is a neg for Labor and Galaxy will get headlines of course

    Galaxy is not one to look at with Marginal polling but Newspoll That simply shows about 16 Labor seats at risk/close NSW/Qld and a swinfg to ALP in Vic delivering seats But we already knew it was close One can not make a State trend out of such polls

  28. @Rod Hagen

    Greetings fellow McEwen voter, we have been very popular this election although the lib mailouts have been a bit desperate, along the lines of please please vote for us, you used too

  29. 559
    [newspoll is bollocks lol]

    I dunno that it is, Stu. It’s Shanahan’s acrobatic attempts to spin it desperately that is bollocks. They’ve had the odd outlier, but I agree with Pebbles that generally they’re pretty reliable.

  32. [Let’s wait and see what is reported tomorrow.]

    Someone said the Courier Mail was shouting loudly and triumphantly about Abbott being ahead…

  34. Antony GREEN # 685…do you believe the majority of voters give a stuff how the figures were collated or came to be? Are they interested enough to understand?

    A 48 yr old in my office says..” did you see that headline?”..I ask..”What did the story say?”…..reply ” Don’t need to read it, that big black print says it all”. FFS..he is on a salary of K75

    Antony, don’t confuse knowing with I will anyway

  40. pedant@705

    JV @ 690 – How rational is most political thinking? So many voters make judgements based on whether they “like” or “dislike” a leader: the leader in question being someone they have never met, and about whom, objectively, they know next to nothing. And irrational thinking may turn out to be right (eg “I won’t vote for Richard Nixon, because he looks like a crook”.)

    Very true – we only need look at the sort of tribalism that passes for party support on PB. Most of that sort of loyal attachment is pure emotion, and has little or nothing to do with the actual policy merits of the party. Without an emotional attachment, which for many seems to be a sort of personal support mechanism, a more objective approach to political decisions can be taken.

    That is what political leaders themselves are supposed to do – make decisions based on the best advice for the good of the people. If you think about political processes in that way, then it is possible to make rational judgements about what good policy is.

    Because decisions based in irrational thought may sometimes turn out to be right in no way justifies irrational thinking, because it generally leads to wrong decisions.

    If what you consider to be good policy (eg climate change strategies based on the science and economics) is some distance from a party that has had your support, then the obvious course is to look elsewhere, as I do. That isn’t strange behaviour.

    What’s strange to me is people supporting a party wherever it goes on policy – even into the right-wing swamp with the Libs in our current local example. Many here who supported the ALP for decades have happily gone into the swamp too. It isn’t merely support ‘through thick and thin’ – it is support without regard for policy, morality or principle. This entrenched tribal element is the most fascinating phenomenon that I have taken from PB. It’s quite unsettling at the same time.

  42. Judging from the video on the CM website showing the dustup in Longman, it shouldn’t be difficult to identify the gentleman who threw the punch, and no doubt Mr Roy will be willing to cooperate with the police in helping them to identify the offender.

  45. I haven’t been following the thread, but no doubt there’s been conspiracy theorising. If the charge is that Galaxy is betraying a partisan agenda, obviously you’ll have been saying it’s a bias towards Labor. Labor are bending over backwards to persuade people they’re the underdog, and were no doubt aghast to find Nielsen crediting them with a 53-47 lead they knew they didn’t have. This effort from Galaxy is just what the doctor ordered – a poll that appears to show them heading for defeat but doesn’t really, and which can be used to sustain “but it’s close in the marginals!” arguments if/when favourable polls come in during the final week.

  47. [Antony Green or David Briggs & his News Ltd buddies?]

    Oh! Now I get mysay’s comment earlier re: Briggs appearing in Liberal ads.

    No, I was talking about Jamie Briggs, Liberal MP for Mayo!

  49. BigBob
    [As to everybody’s Muslim friends who can’t vote for an unbeliever – unless they are in Gillard’s electorate, it shouldn’t matter. You just have to remind them they vote for a local member – not a Prime Minister!]

    It’s hard enough to explain that to an Aussie born bogan or a Young Dribbler.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19