Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.

News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.

UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.

In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. cud

    I’m suggesting that one can assess that cluster of marginol Seats per state
    to assess likely resluts of each of those 4 Seats per states And I’m quite separate suggesting that one cannt then infer any State or National 2 TPP at all

    furthers , your point on how selection of each 4 seat Group made/its worth/it may camoflages of which is in each cluster , is anothr separate issue to pondar

  2. The Sunday Telegraph has come out in support of Labor’s re-election.

    Murdoch papers typically tend to support whichever party it thinks is likely to win, e.g. The UK Sun switching support from the Tories to Labour in 1997, and then switching back to the Tories in 2009. So, I guess this means that the Tele is also expecting a Labor victory. 🙂

    [We do not pretend Ms Gillard and the Labor Party are without risks. This newspaper has relentlessly pursued the Labor Government whenever circumstances have warranted.

    We also praised Ms Gillard for her superb work in introducing the My School website, staring down the teachers’ unions, pursuing the national curriculum and greater transparency in education, and for her efficient and calm replacement of the WorkChoices industrial relations system with Labor’s Fair Work regime.

    She is a tireless worker – equally as tireless as her predecessor Kevin Rudd ,who earned the nickname Kevin 24/7 because of his work ethic.

    The Government may have thrown billions at it, but a recession was avoided – and Australians kept their jobs. …..

    The Sunday Telegraph believes Ms Gillard and the Labor government deserve a second term, like every government since 1931, and a chance to prove they can move beyond the polls and toward a real change for Australia’s future.]

  3. Ron and Cud

    I posted earlier at 846 showing that the choice that Galaxy made of
    the 4 seats for Qld were those, which on previous existing evidence, would
    show the highest swings to Coalition, way out of line with
    state average.

  4. Thomas Paine. Always a good read.

    You know that I have swung already.

    These silly buggers convinced me to switch to Green by their naivety and poor reasoning.

    I don’t know how anyone else doesn’t find the same upon close scrutiny of policies.

    Seems a no brainer to me.

  5. Labor would deserve a second term as the Tele says, if they promised in the next week (in proper political language) to:

    adopt Professor Garnaut’s carbon model;
    reverse their capitulation on school funding policy;
    accept refugees in line with international human rights standards;
    wind back middle class welfare in conjunction with the Henry review;
    sack Conroy.

    That would be enough for my endorsement. Even the first one would probably do it.

    As it stands, being a mere douche, compared the turd party is insufficient. (Hewson)

  6. Dr Good
    Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 1:37 am | Permalink
    Ron and Cud

    “I posted earlier at 846 showing that the choice that Galaxy made of
    the 4 seats for Qld were those, which on previous existing evidence, would
    show the highest swings to Coalition, way out of line with
    state average.”

    but as I said to Cud , one cann’t infer a State or National 2 PPT anyway !

    Which therefore makes MSN tonites headline of Libs at 51.4% nationally BS

    (what Antony simply did ws to accept there false premise a Ntional 2 PPT could be calced , and then by maths proved that EVEN using such false premise it was maths wONg anyways !!

    now to yoour post i hadn’t see Doc , you raise a separate issue to what I’ve said , ie MSN asking a pollster to poll Labor’s likely worst marginol seats !! (to assist libs , so agree with that point)

  7. For this poll, Galaxy have chosen to poll four seats in Queensland which seem to be special in that individual seat betting punters are expecting big swings.

    Bowman ALP margin 0, prob 67% to LNP,
    Dawson ALP margin 2.6% prob 65% to LNP
    Dickson ALP margin 0.8% prob 57% to LNP
    Flynn ALP margin 2.2% prob 59% to LNP

    (To think a seat is so likely to go LNP, you’d on average
    think that the margin will end up over 2-3% for the LNP,
    so that’s a 5% swing)

    They did not choose, eg:

    Longman ALP margin 1.9% prob 60% to ALP
    Petrie ALP margin 4.2% prob 59% to ALP
    Forde ALP margin 3.4% prob 54% to ALP
    Brisbane ALP margin 4.6% prob 58% to ALP

    Then they measured an average swing in the four chosen seats
    of 5.4% to the LNP.

    Then they claimed that such a swing in Qld would possibly
    deliver 10 seats to the Coalition.

    Of course, the 10 seats supposedly at risk include the four
    that I have listed that punters think at the moment
    are pretty safe for the ALP.

    So there is a way of making a poll grab the headlines
    even though it is not saying anything much more than
    the punters already expect.

  8. Radguy@914

    Jeez JV, you’re easy!
    I’d be asking a lot more.

    Yes, I know I’ve softened. We can’t have it all before the PR revolution happens, but we can get some of the rest as long as the Greens get the balance upstairs.

  9. There’s going to be some confused voters in marginal seats who think the Coalition are going to win them and then not do so…hopefully they blame the papers for getting it wrong.

  10. The lies, distortion and stupidity at the Murdoch rags is breathtaking. It is worth having a look at the five separate state tabloid stories on the Galaxy poll of four marginal seats in each of five states. Not one of them provides detailed information on the poll either nationally or for their state. The rational reader of these pieces cannot possibly come to any informed conclusion about the real election implications.

    My favorite is the West, where the subs didn’t understand the orders and put a headline ‘Labor leads coalition, poll shows’ on top of the story which starts ‘The coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory’.

    You can also read the Courier, Advertiser,Hun and Tele pieces for your own amusement.

  11. Jeebus – its all over the media.

    Im starting to wonder if BB isnt right – surely they arent all *that* stupid that they cant understand marginals will return an unrepresentative 2PP?

    This’ll be fun to watch – they should rewrite overnight or theyre going to look completely ridiculous.

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