Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.

News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.

UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.

In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. The betting market has been steady for the last twelve hours or so, with Labor at around $1.26 on Centrebet and oscillating between $1.34 – $1.31 on Betfair on low volume. So the marginal seat poll hasn’t had any effect as yet. Maybe the press reports will have a slight drift outwards tomorrow. I’d see that as an opportunity to load up again.

  2. At this stage of the contest National Polls deliver little insight. Only detailed marginal polls can provide and real indication as to the result., If Morgans 17,5%$ undecided is true then anything can happen in a week, I do not think the Greens will win Melbourne. They may only came third. Family First will come eighth in Victoria. The ALP missing three Senate seats due to the distortion in the way the vote is counted. If this is the case then Micheal Danby and Senator Feeney’s staff will be held accountable for not addressing this issue

  3. My opinion on Melbourne is if Abbott is clearly in front or if Gillard is clearly in front it’ll probably go Green but if it’s close, the feeling of making sure Gillard gets over the line will make the seat go Labor.

    A purely qualitative analysis though, I admit.

  4. [That’s an excellent and succinct explanation. Will the commercial media fix their reporting/ numbers I wonder?]

    I hope they don’t fix it. It will make some undecided voters think long and hard about the possibility of an Abbott gov.

  5. [I’m dreamin of a Green christmas]

    I know what you mean but I can’t help but think of the Grinch… 😉

  6. Antony Green @722,

    [But to get a national figure, you should apply the uniform swing from each state’s poll of 800 to the result last time. And if you do that, the National 2PP comes out at ALP 51%. On the swings reported in the poll, the state figures 2PP for Labor are NSW 51.3, VIC 55.9, QLD 45.0, SA 52.4 and WA 44.6. The NSW and VIC figures mean the ALP 2PP must be above 50.]

    Well that’s fun, I put that into Antony’s calculator and I get Labor on 71 seats with 51% of the vote.

    What gives?

  7. On a pseph point, although the galaxy results have been misrepresented and the choice of marginals may skew the picture a little , I think if you deduct the half to one pecrent bias against labor from Galaxy, the picture is about right. I dont expect much movement in victoria at all, nor South Australia. possible loss in WA sp the election will be about the damage in NSW and queensland and I think ATM, there wont be enough changing hands to change govenment but 7 or 8 is feasible.

  8. JV
    [The Labor loyalist skin seems a little thin tonight.]

    I am surprised you read a Labor hacks post (or any hack for that matter). Their position renders their posts next to worthless except to get an idea of the current thinking of the lower rungs of the party cockcroaches. They are here to promote and defend the current change in the wind, no matter if it come from the waste treatment farm, they will suck it up as sweet.

    I wouldn’t be spruiking too much that I was in support of the NSW right controlling the Federal Party, ready to repeat their destruction of Labor on a national scale. But it helps to make you feel good if you can be one of the assistant roaches I guess.

    I wonder if there is a book on the chances of Feeny, Arib having their hair ruffled a bit in the unlikely event JGillard loses the election.

    In 18 months the little weather vanes here will be screaming luck skewered pigs over, lo JGillard is Howard in drag, and ready to smear her name in an effort to promote the next lump to float to the right’s surface.

    Enjoy;

    By the way Scorpio, JV and a few others are probably the only one’s to give an honest non partisan view on this blog which make them a hundered times more interesting and worthwhile than a hack spruiking the party line.

  9. I have never seen such a lot of ads for a local member as has been shown for Christopher Pyne in the Sturt electorate. Is the developer in the ads shown as a councillor putting up the money in return for ????

  10. If Galaxy are showing Labor on 51%, then they are home and hosed. I have been polled by Galaxy and can say from personal experience that it less like being asked to state a simple preference than being challenged to reveal a guilty secret. The inflection in the interviewer’s voice was just a few notches away from being aggressive, as if there is a “right” answer to the question “Which party would you vote for…?” This conceals at least one or two points of the real level of support for Labor, I would have thought.

  11. I presume the poll interpretation error was made not by Galaxy but by the reporter doing the story up for the News outlets. Would that be right?

    Hmmm. Seems like a stuff-up rather than an intentional skewing of the result – too blatant to be an intentional skewing, surely. When in doubt blame incompetence over deviousness.

  12. Cud

    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 1:01 am | Permalink
    Antony Green @722,

    “But to get a national figure, you should apply the uniform swing from each state’s poll of 800 to the result last time. And if you do that, the National 2PP comes out at ALP 51%. On the swings reported in the poll, the state figures 2PP for Labor are NSW 51.3, VIC 55.9, QLD 45.0, SA 52.4 and WA 44.6. The NSW and VIC figures mean the ALP 2PP must be above 50.

    Well that’s fun, I put that into Antony’s calculator and I get Labor on 71 seats with 51% of the vote.’

    “What gives? ”

    cud , when I popped here late tonite after watching footy , and saw melt downs here on Gallaxy I suggested ignore it for no of reasons , most Antony covered

    so when you asks about your calcs , antony is simply shwoing a thoery calc to show Gallaxy/MSN headline of Libs nationally of 51.4% on Gallaxy is false

    in fact , ignore all those figures s those State 2 PPT is based on only 4 margin seats per state , and you cannt get a State 2 PPT from so small

  13. [ In 18 months the little weather vanes here will be screaming luck skewered pigs over, lo JGillard is Howard in drag, and ready to smear her name in an effort to promote the next lump to float to the right’s surface. ]

    A fairly astute prediction.

  14. Ron @875, yes, but..

    In order for the result for Labor is better than AGs calculator predicts (and assuming all else is equal and Galaxy has no house bias) then you’d have to say that the particular group of seats chosen has a swing to Labor stronger than the state average for each group.

    Believable for one or two states, but hard to believe (if its random) for all states – unless there’s a guiding hand deliberately cherry picking each group.

  15. Tom Jones (nice movie BTW)
    [I have never seen such a lot of ads for a local member as has been shown for Christopher Pyne in the Sturt electorate. Is the developer in the ads shown as a councillor putting up the money in return for ????]

    I agree the exposure is unprecedented.
    So who is the other bloke in the 3 amigos ad?
    And what do you mean by the second sentence? Which Councillor?

  16. my two mates think i have got 2 bums. When i go to the pub other people say ‘Theres that guy with the 2 assholes’

  17. [ It’s not just Latham we are getting on 60 minutes. Pauline Hanson will be his guest to be interviewed as well!
    ]

    The farce is moving along ………

  18. [It’s not just Latham we are getting on 60 minutes. Pauline Hanson will be his guest to be interviewed as well!]

    wonderful 😮

  19. [It’s not just Latham we are getting on 60 minutes. Pauline Hanson will be his guest to be interviewed as well!]

    Yuck, they must have had to hose the studio out pretty well after that.

  20. lefty e

    I don’t think it could have been Galaxy making such an error surely – wouldn’t it have been the reporter?

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