Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.
News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.
UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.
In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.
john howard is on packed to the rafters
gee he has fattened out
william do you beleive this poll done in a day out in the even that quick
does he have a big staff would they put this through a computer.
is this the poll the channells are talking about on the news
so the news ltd poll who did that
gus so there is only u and i what do you think of all this after today chatter i thought it was in the bag
gus so there is only u and i what do you think of all this after today chatter i thought it was in the bag
Thanks William. Curious things about both polls. The Morgan one is consistent with other recent polls in a comparative sense – a shift towards Labor of about 1% 2PP. The News Limited one is almost impossible to make sense of unless we know which seats were polled and the equivalent 2PP for them at the previous election.
Regardless of polls, and noting that it is unwise to succumb to hubris, I can’t see anything in the events of the past week that would cause a shift to the Libs. I bagged Labor’s campaign in the first two weeks because it was a disaster. But the last two weeks have been good – disciplined and on a message that plays to its strengths. Meanwhile it was not a good week for Abbott.
my say @ 1054 on previous thread.
I’m reposting this in case you didn’t see it before the new thread.
It would probably have some effect if Swan were to say it but I doubt it anything Abbott has to say is of any real interest to the FTSE, for example.
Re the Spooks DVD’s – I’m sure I’ve seen them available at ABC shops. I find though, that most of the inexpensive DVD players will play multi-zone. I have several DVD’s from the US (Zone 1) and the UK (Zone 2, I think) and they play no bother on my DVD player. Australia is Zone 4. Seemingly the zoning system was an attempt to prevent piracy of films – waste of time and should be got rid of as it doesn’t work at all. You can apparently buy a pirated copy of a film before it even appears in the cinema sometimes.
No-one seems to be rushing in to take the $3.80 on the Libs
my say
next saturday at exactly this time is when the channels will call lit
the detritus thrown up between now and then is dust in the wind
[The people united,Will never be didivided]
[The News Limited one is almost impossible to make sense of unless we know which seats were polled and the equivalent 2PP for them at the previous election.]
so have they said who conducted it is there usual news poll
how come bolt was the other way this morning its like torture
[The News Limited one is almost impossible to make sense of unless we know which seats were polled and the equivalent 2PP for them at the previous election.]
so have they said who conducted it is there usual news poll
how come bolt was the other way this morning its like torture
So the Liberals gain 17 seats in Queensland & NSW. the ALP pick up one to four seats in Victoria & SA and all rest on the shoulders of WA.
Gee and people mucked Glen when he predicted a repeat of the 1990 election.
Centre
Some reasonable statements here:
[The betting may react to ANY piece of information that may relate to the outcome of the election.
The polls are just ONE of many factors that may be considered by the markets.
Saying that the betting follows the polls exclusively is just as simple as saying that a coys share price exclusively follows its financial report.]
Election betting is a little more complex than that, however, since a large amount of money has already changed hands and, unlike the stock exchange, you can’t get your money out if new information causes it to turn.
So, curiously, you get people who perhaps bet early on a good price that see the tide going against them now, who will still probably stick with the way their money has gone.
So unless there is an overwhelming amount of money that comes in late (far more likely on the TPP book than seats), the market will not seem to be responding, simply because of the wagers already laid.
[ saturday at exactly this time is when the channels will call lit
the detritus thrown up between now and then is dust in the wind
The people united,Will never be didivided]]]
good always wins over evil
The ALP and the Libs both have their preferred suppliers for tenders.
The Greens will make the two sides compete properly, no more dodgy deals.
Australia is much safer economically under the Greens than either of the majors.
ltep, the polls could be accurately interpreted as a form guide. Some may have more validity than others. I don’t think this Morgan will have any great influence on the markets.
Note: A poll may indicate which party is leading, but will NOT assure a party of victory any more than a football team or a horse may have the best form but does not start favourite in the betting.
[So the Liberals gain 17 seats in Queensland & NSW]
I’ll bet anyone $1000 right now that the Libs will not gain a total of 17 seats from QLD and NSW.
Any takers?
Darn – I agree with you. 17 seats is not going to happen
Darn
[No-one seems to be rushing in to take the $3.80 on the Libs]
I am seriously considering putting some on. That is a tantalising figure since it only counts wins not just outright wins. At present the highest likelihood of events is a coalition minority government. That would win me 3.80…..
I am not generally the betting type, but……
My Say
[good always wins over evil]
Sadly not always
Tho tone has made the choice clearcut
[The Rabbott just stated it is ‘SAFER’ to invest in third world countries than Australia.]
Was an absolute joke…sell your Aussie mines and buy (from memory) Abbott’s reccomendations of Argentina (really a big mining country these days???), Botswana, Zambia, one or 2 other countries were mentioned…
what a goose
my say @ 1054 on previous thread.
[I’m reposting this in case you didn’t see it ]
we have a new hd panasonic with inbuilt recorder and player so you think that would be ok for eg spooks episode i not sure if they realese them here for sale till they are played here but i was thinking perhaps british amazon
Mcik
put all your money on the fibs
I reckon there is still some juice to be squeezed
Mick
Thanks from the previous thread.
Darn
I’d be a mug to take your bet because I think you are almost certainly correct there!!
However, Labor losing 9-11 seats net seems pretty plausible, which is not a Labor win….
Hmmmm
Gus now your giving me nighmares
In fairness to Tone he was quoting a report that said Australia was seen as a risk for mining companies to invest in
I saw the gravel voiced Ian MacFarlane on the spruik with Tony Abbott earlier in the day, and in addition to the usual turgid recapitulation of the “Stop the Great Big New (insert cliche)” mantra, was this little gem:
“Labor’s performance in Government has been a liturgy of policy failure!”
Now I know that Mr Abbott is a very zealous Catholic, steeped in the traditions of his Church, and so may be ‘Malaprop’ MacFarlane, for all I know, but for Dawkin’s sake …
I wonder how our faith-challenged PM would react to the news of this sacramental turn in the campaign?
[Australia is much safer economically under the Greens than either of the majors.]
Give me a break!
My say
I want the market to go back to 1..35
35% on 10g over 6 days is a great return
Gordon gecko eat your heart out
A fool is easliy separated from his money
Mick enjoy putting your money on Tone
Darn
so how many seats is it safe to loose i am not asking that mike
[Was an absolute joke…sell your Aussie mines and buy (from memory) Abbott’s reccomendations of Argentina (really a big mining country these days???), Botswana, Zambia, one or 2 other countries were mentioned…
what a goose]
A bloody dangerous goose. Remember this idiot could end up being the PM.
OMG!
Perhaps they have let him off the leash to endear us with the real Rabbott.
[I can’t see anything in the events of the past week that would cause a shift to the Libs]
except for Labor hitting the front….that’d push a few people back into the other column
[ wonder how our faith-challenged PM would react to the news of this sacramental turn in the campaign?]
something tells me he has internall polling do you think big ship to talk like this about his own country
but what do you mean by the remark i have pasted here
Further
two seats are offering over 2.25
125% + return over 6 days is cool too
where is frank frank we need you to tweet that is a disgrace ful thing to say
The ALP offically hold 83 seats, but after the re-distribution are on 87
To win government outright one much win 76 seats.
gus i llv ya talking about the betting side of things takes me mind off all this other
c .. p
Mick Wilkinson @ 25
[However, Labor losing 9-11 seats net seems pretty plausible, which is not a Labor win….]
The loss of 11 seats by the ALP would result in a narrow victory to the Government from the notional 88 seats currently held, ie: 77 seats to the ALP, probably 3 Independents and 70 seats to the Coalition.
so what was all that talk recently that we had to loose 16 seats to be out
MW @ 13. Guess what?
1. Yes you can strategically place bets in the same way as a stock market.
2. The market is quite capable of substantially changing its odds regardless of the amount of money bet.
When you SERIOUSLY have something intelligent to add regarding betting markets, I will respond to you. 🙂
my say
stop stressing
the trend is your friend
both the polls and the bookies are firmly in labors camp
[Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
The ALP offically hold 83 seats, but after the re-distribution are on 87]
sorry so do we have 83 or 87 now
[my say
stop stressing
the trend is your friend
both the polls and the bookies are firmly in labors camp]
Precisely. Still a lot of work to be done but I know which leader I’d rather be right now.
there is no way that a phone poll of 4000 people could have been conducted in a single day, let alone a weekend!
thanks gus i will go with neilson for now what do ya think
My say
The ALP have 83 seated MP’s and five seats that have Liberal MPs but due to boundary changes are now ALP seats.
[My Say
good always wins over evil
Sadly not always
Tho tone has made the choice clearcut]
So now it’s not just your team it’s a pious choice as well? Give me strength…
[there is no way that a phone poll of 4000 people could have been conducted in a single day, let alone a weekend!]
That’s what I reckon. Obviously the full details will be in tomorrow’s Sunday rags.