Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.

News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.

UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.

In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  1. beter go and make the oh his evening coffee o dear wish i could sleep till next sunday

    our son comes home next sunday i want him to be happy

  2. Big Ship

    you quite kind to help Mick W out with maths

    My Say
    cause notioally we hold 88 seats after re-distrib & we’ll win min 2 seats in vic and 1 in SA

  3. A good example is Gilmore and Dickson, two seats that were won in 2007 by the Liberal Party but are now marginal ALP seats so when we see a poll with us losing, we really are not losing them.

  4. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
    Darn – I agree with you. 17 seats is not going to happen]

    before i go how many seats are there in qld

  5. [there is no way that a phone poll of 4000 people could have been conducted in a single day, let alone a weekend!]

    I cant see why not, if they are willing to throw enough money at it.

  6. I think everyone knew Labor would take hits in NSW and Qld, so this isn’t new information. But there’s every likelihood some of those losses will be offset by gains in other states, notably Vic and SA. I’m still of the view that Canning is very gettable for Labor: an ace candidate vs a go-nowhere seat warmer, plus the promise of much needed infrastructure by way of the NBN in the next rollout phase.

  7. my say
    I reckon we will both have a lot more grey hair by the time this election is over. The poll dancing, the betting odds. It’s like being on a rollercoaster that just won’t stop.

  8. [ good example is Gilmore and Dickson, two seats that were won in 2007 by the Liberal Party but are now marginal ALP seats so when we see a poll with us losing, we really are not losing them.
    57 my say]

    seats so when we see a poll with us losing, we really are not loosing

    is there a way of putting this in simple english for me

    gee i wish i was as clever at understanding this s you lot can tell maths where not my strong point.

    and i notice mark twain must of left as soon as she came

  9. [ good example is Gilmore and Dickson, two seats that were won in 2007 by the Liberal Party but are now marginal ALP seats so when we see a poll with us losing, we really are not losing them.
    57 my say]

    seats so when we see a poll with us losing, we really are not loosing

    is there a way of putting this in simple english for me

    gee i wish i was as clever at understanding this s you lot can tell maths where not my strong point.

    and i notice mark twain must of left as soon as she came

  10. [Darn

    I’d be a mug to take your bet because I think you are almost certainly correct there!!

    However, Labor losing 9-11 seats net seems pretty plausible, which is not a Labor win Hmmmm]

    Actually, by my calculation a net 11 seat loss IS a win for Labor.

  11. imacca @ 59,

    the respondent refusal rate generally associated with conducting surveys is quite high and the manpower required to get that many surveys!!!

  12. [63 Dee
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
    my say
    I reckon we will both have a lot more grey hair by the time this election is over. The poll dancing, the betting odds. It’s like being on a rollercoaster that just won’t stop.
    ]

    no i have been running on 1 cyldiner for weeks now .

  13. Centre

    first wk

    3 schools

    2nd week

    2 stools

    3rd week

    4 schools

    4th week

    the whole net (swmbo approved!)

    whether its a straight 35% or a spread of 50/25/25 will be determined about

    3.30pm tomorrow

    ps Mickw bet hard and bet often

  14. We have polling from Newspoll for example that says that the ALP might lose Gilmore or Dickson.

    In 2007 we did not win them, the only reason they are considered ALP seats is due to the new boundaries.

  15. holycow1 @ 46

    [there is no way that a phone poll of 4000 people could have been conducted in a single day, let alone a weekend!]

    Two different polls. The Morgan Phone poll of 966 respondents was done today, and that is the one showing 51% to 46% TPP to the ALP, up 1% to the ALP from their previous phone poll.

    The 4000 person poll is of marginals only – 20 seats of 400 respondents each.

  16. [The loss of 11 seats by the ALP would result in a narrow victory to the Government from the notional 88 seats currently held, ie: 77 seats to the ALP, probably 3 Independents and 70 seats to the Coalition.]

    Yeah mate, not my Maths problem tonight, it’s your attentional one. I have stated for, I don’t know.. DAYS, that we have 83 ALP members in the House of Reps and 64 Coalition and 3 Independents. No information (including the most recent polling on marginals from NP) supports the change of ANY of these seats.

    The figures are completely correct. If you ALP tragics want to count imaginary seats with non-sitting members that is your choice. I just happen to think (along with apparently tens of thousands of punters) that you might as well believe in the tooth fairy or, alternatively have the faith that Gus has. 🙂

  17. [thanks gus i will go with neilson for now what do ya think]

    I’d steer clear of neilson for the moment.

    Its beginning to look like they’ve produced the two outlier polls of the last fortnight

    the 52-48 to the libs and now the 53-47 to the ALP.

    I keep thinking its 51-49 to the ALP with victory hanging on how the marginal campaigns have gone

  18. ][53 The Big Ship
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
    my say @ 35

    but what do you mean by the remark []

    i am very slow with jokes big ship. i just wish tony would go away forever
    so dont mind me if i dont get it sometimes.

    i felt so asssured this morning tonight i am down again to much talk about marginals i am so confused can you tell me what you think then i will go

  19. Just on the Galaxy poll. Pspehos would do a better job of explaining this, but a pollster once told me that the best way of picking up a national trend is to do a random national poll of about 1200 people, similar to that which Neilsen has done. He also said to me never going looking for a national trend by polling seats that you know are going one way or another.

    We need to see how it was done. 4000 people picked randomly in 17 seats could be easily skewed. If they polled say, 450 people in Robertson, where we know we are ging to lose, then that would skew the national result. If it was 17 seats of 250 people each then the margin of error is so great that it makes the total figure insignficant.

    Both Neilsen and Morgan are showing a trend back to us. This is being supported by everything we are hearing from the two parties and journalists. There is no way anyone is expecting to lose 19 seats; no way. The Morgan result has the LNP 2% above what they probably are, whereas I do believe that we are at 40%. So this poll is more like 52.5-47.5 to us. Let’s see what the Newspoll says tomorrow. If they show a similar result to Galaxy, then I will panic.

    Furthermore, remember that Galaxy has not has a decent poll for us for the last four months. Their first poll of the election had it 50-50 when clearly it wasn’t. Remember that they are polling for the most right wing paper in Australia.

  20. [The 4000 person poll is of marginals only – 20 seats of 400 respondents each.]
    Is that 200 or is there some other figure at play here?

  21. my say @ 22

    Sounds like a more expensive player than I have so I’d check out the local ABC shop, often within Angus & Robertson’s bookshop if you don’t have one near you, before you try Amazon UK.

    Mind you – depending on the exchange rate it might be cheaper to shop at Amazon. The instruction booklet that came with your player will tell you which zones it accepts.

    PS: I’ve just looked at the ABC website (they have an on-line shop) and you can get series 1 to 7 here, either as individual series at different prices depending on the number of discs, or packaged as one (ie all 7 series for $189.99!)

  22. Anyone who watched “Before the Game” on Channel 10 tonight knows that all previous polling is irrelevant.

    THe Labor vote in all “AFL playing” States just went up about 5% after a consumate, honest, performance from Gillard. THe women’s vote for Abbott just collapsed by an even larger margin! (“Hey Princess” (i.e. his wife – I kid you not) “let me show you how to do it” – and then fluffs a mark that most five year olds would have snaffled!)

  23. If Labor are doing so poorly on Morgan polls surely the Coalition are favoured to win.
    It seems from the Newspoll that Dullard’s mob are not getting any traction in the marginals so their meagre vote is also parked in the wrong seats.
    Only another week to an Abbott Conservative Government……

  24. [81 In the Know
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
    Just on the Galaxy poll. Pspehos would do a better job of explaining this, but a pollster once told me that the best way of picking up a national trend is to do a random national poll of about 1200 people, similar to that which ]

    thanks for that

    what your feeling where newspoll should come in then to give us an idea

  25. GUS

    LOLs [ps Mickw bet hard and bet often]

    Nice twist on the ALP member’s guide! I love it!! 🙂

    ACtually gus, I was talking with my kids tonight and tragically I can’t vote in this election. I am pretty pissed about it. AEC deleted me when we moved last year. They had to work hard on that stuff up because my wife and I put it in the same envelope last September, so she is registered, I was deleted!!! 🙁

    4 hours and 6 staff later… still not resolved. I might crash tackle a spotty youth with a Che Guevera shirt on and take his vote (not being sexist here, I wouldn’t crash tackle a spotty woman.. there are some things that even a socially conservative Centre Right voter wouldn’t do!! :))

    So, I am being completely honest when I say I’m not voting for the Libs this time!

  26. Curiouser and curiouser.

    Newspoll polled ’17’ seats, three states, headlined today as ‘Libs to win clutch; fall short’.

    Now we are to have what? Another ’17’ seat poll; presumably Galaxy; presumably for the Sunday tabloids; to show ’17’ at risk (the magical number the Coalition needs to scrape outright control).

    Doth Murdoch’s left hand knoweth what its right hand doeth?

  27. [THe Labor vote in all “AFL playing” States just went up about 5% after a consumate, honest, performance from Gillard.]

    I wonder if the appearance will be spun as a “desperate move” by the Australian…

  28. @66:
    Currently:
    Labor 83 seats
    LNP 65 seats

    A net 11 seat loss (to LNP) gives

    Labor 72 seats
    LNP 76 seats

    Why isn’t that a loss???

  29. Mick’s reaction to a poll in favour of Labor:

    [Bruup Bruup, Bruup Bruup

    “YEF, Jooflya DullAARd.. mmchh, ahem, Joolya Dullard PM”

    “It’s Ton’. heyjuliassphinctersayswhat?”

    “What?”
    “heh, heh.”
    click.]

    Enough said.

  30. [Allan Moyes
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:51 pm | Permalink
    my say @ 22

    Sounds like a more expensive player than I have so I’d check out the local ABC shop, often within Angus & Robertson’s bookshop if you don’t have one near you, before you try Amazon ]

    thanks allan we had a little inheritance from holland and the hd is what we spent it on had not had a new tv for years but i wonder why we bothered but its good to tape prgrammes and watch them later you are kind to me thankyou,.

  31. [If Labor are doing so poorly on Morgan polls surely the Coalition are favoured to win.
    It seems from the Newspoll that Dullard’s mob are not getting any traction in the marginals so their meagre vote is also parked in the wrong seats.
    Only another week to an Abbott Conservative Government……]

    I couldn’t write a more subjective analysis if I tried. Congratulations.

  32. [20 of 200 The Big Ship. Still not unreliable though. It’s still close and Abbott can still win.]
    I’m a bit slow with this polling. Wouldn’t the relevance of the poll be dependant on the population?
    During elections we hear alot about nominated booths, Lib/Lab. So dependant on where in that electorate you polled could make a difference either way.
    Then if we split that 200 over the vastness of the electorate, for some higher populated areas 200 would be almost irrelevant.
    Sorry folks, pleas forgive me I just don’t get it.

  33. Laocoon,

    [4000 is a large sample

    I wonder over what time period this was taken…more than a day?? ]

    Not only that, it is only 200 voters sampled in each electorate so the MOE is quite big.

    I don;t think we can put much stock in it especially after Rooty Hill. Galaxy has no credibility now IMO.

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