Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.
News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.
UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.
In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.
steve
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 12:18 am | Permalink
“It looks like it’s back to the knock ém down drag ém out school of politics that Ron and myself cut our teeth on in Queensland”
yes Steve indeed
in 2007 the odds on final day of campaign were labor $1.22 lib $4.15
today on centrebet labor $1.25 lib $3.80
Liam Bartlettt on the Koolaid:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/bartlett-ghosts-of-poor-polls-past/story-e6frg41u-1225905337272
[That’s why I not only know what they are like]
You know absolutely SFA.
jv @ 799 – sounds like more fun than Khrushchev’s Secret Speech.
Ron and steve
[“It looks like it’s back to the knock ém down drag ém out school of politics that Ron and myself cut our teeth on in Queensland”]
Who won?
A very volatile electorate. Again there is no data on the undecided.
Morgan often comes out claiming there is a late swing to the ALP. Working on the underdog status theory that voters will in the last minute vote for the non-favourite to win.
Al indicators point to a hung parliament. hen push comes to shove better the devil you know then the one you do not. Problem here is who is the devil.
I for one think Abbott’s 4 point mantra is tiring and lacks resonance or confidence.
Do you really want Abbott on your TV screens. Vote One Labor and play it safe. For the sake of Australia
Diogenes,
[scorps
Isn’t that two fights about politics in a day in Qld? What are you lot up to? ]
That’s just normal politics up this way Dio. I reckon over the past 15 years at least half of the members of the Qld Parliament on both sides have offered to meet someone from the other side out the back for a “discussion”! 😉
About three years ago we had the Federal member’s OH & the State member go at it hammer & tongs at the Labour Day celebrations in front of 5,000 people.
The media gave it a bit of coverage but I think most people just shrug it off as “boys will be boys” in the Sunshine State.
Beattie tried to change it to the “Smart State” but it didn’t take off and there are very few number plates ion cars here with that on! 😉
I thought the SMH headline today was right – this is Labor’s election to lose now. They distinctly have their nose in front, no doubt about it.
[I trust you are joining me in voting for the ASP this election.]
Diog, sorry i gone off SEX. Too retro for me. I am trying the old Abbott’s trick: celibacy and it’s a delicacy.
Who Ron?
@dyno/809,
I dunno, the hickups (Robb Repeating himself, Broadband debacle, Failed to report costings etc) haven’t hit Coalition yet.
Too soon to call yet, and also remember some people change their minds on election day.
I can’t remember any political biffo in SA (Phillips on Rann didn’t count). We must be very civilised here. As we are constantly reminded, we are the non-convict settlement state. 😉
Ron@780
Yes, you seem a loyal party supporter. You may need it, perhaps it helps, like a religion. Then you seem to go on to assume others must also be in one political camp or another, just as you are.
The problem with that assumption is that I am not a member; a volunteer; a supporter, or even a familiar of the policy platform of any party. I have said this many times, and it is true. You should learn not to judge others by your own standards.
I’m sure Clyde Cameron decked a few Groupers in his day.
Oh dear, this is rather tragic, isnt it:
[ Candidate to be disendorsed
August 14, 2010
THE Country Liberals’ candidate for the Northern Territory outback seat of Lingiari is likely to be disendorsed this weekend, handing certain victory to veteran Labor MP Warren Snowdon.
Party officials are furious with Leo Abbott (pictured) for failing to tell them before he was preselected that he had breached a domestic violence order.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/candidate-to-be-disendorsed-20100813-1239k.html
[ either directly or by dismay at the takeover by today’s hollow men. ]
You may not be a party political hack, but by christ you rabbit on with endless monotony with the best of them.
Actually Dio, there’s a lot of history of this place that will make you proud of coming from here. Years back, in year 12, I did my modern history major assignment in SA history. So much brilliant stuff.
One point that doesn’t seem to have been discussed much is Green preferences: if the Greens really poll over 10%, that will mean they’ve got a lot of new supporters. Presumably that calls into question the standard assumption that their preferences are going in the same proportions as previously.
Dyno
“I thought it was remarkable that Labor went for the Parramatta-Epping train line promise.
Dyno , given travelling times to get to CBD and Julia’s promise to start ‘works’ in 2011 (that no Liberal NSW Govt will oppose) , it was a good politcs and peoples benfit decsion (alot of marginals there and abouts)
Radguy , I’m quite objective about Libs & Grens , being an actual party Member
JV, you and Diog are the Constants of PB. Diog is always wRONg and you are always a Dickhead. 👿
Dio @ 813 – re political biffo in SA, maybe it doesn’t count, but I distinctly recall in one of Don Whitington’s books there was an account of an outbreak of fisticuffs in or near the House of Representatives involving Albert Thompson, Member for Port Adelaide and and an adherent to the Salvation Army, after the Member for Bendigo, George Rankin, made a snide comment including a reference to a tambourine.
[The problem with that assumption is that I am not a member; a volunteer; a supporter, or even a familiar of the policy platform of any party. I have said this many times, and it is true. You should learn not to judge others by your own standards.]
Tell us when you’re done so I can stop yawning….
Ron, I just don’t reckon most people will believe Labor on that Parramatta-Epping promise.
I agree that it’s well-targetted if people did believe it.
[The problem with that assumption is that I am not a member; a volunteer; a supporter, or even a familiar of the policy platform of any party. I have said this many times, and it is true.]
Indeed, you are in fact a typical armchair leftist critic, ie a useless wanker, which is why you should STFU and let those of us willing to do the hack-work get on with the job of saving you and your fellow wankers from the depredations of Mr Rabbit. We don’t expect gratitude, just some that those we are trying to save should shut up and let us get on with it.
What’s the word on Melbourne? Is Labor going to hold it?
finns
labor 1 coalition 0
pedant@805
Yes, in the words of the blockbuster previews, “This time it’s personal!”
“You’ve heard about Khrushchev against the Stalinists, but that was child’s play. Are you ready for the clash of the new century? Hold on to your seats, for it’ll be a wild ride: Labor fights the Arbib mafia, (deep, deep voice) O-o-n Seven”
Diogs
[I can’t remember any political biffo in SA (Phillips on Rann didn’t count). We must be very civilised here. As we are constantly reminded, we are the non-convict settlement state.]
You must live in the eastern suburbs…I can recall the Democrat and the ALP polling booth staffers slugging it out in Kingston in 1990 which was aired on 4 Corners.
Also, I have seen fisticuffs on three polling booths in the northern suburbs, one between ALP and Libs (Young Labor had been caught taking down Liberal posters); one between a Labor polling booth staffer and a nutter voter who hated Keating; and one between One Nation staffer and a voter who took offence at the One Nation polling booth staffer calling people of asian appearance ‘slants’.
I have also been spat on, called various unspeakable names, pushed over, had a punch thrown at me by a voter (try defending yourself with an armful of HTV cards) and at the last State Election was abused face to face by a moron because I was there. No How to Vote cards for me this election…
Psephos @ 825,
You better not say what you really think or you might get Frank’s treatment by WB! 😉
Although I’d really like to know what your “real” thoughts are on it! 😉
melbourne greens $1.42 lab $2.67
[ie a useless wanker]
Herr Doktor, am i allowed to correct your spelling, it’s: Wangker. named after that great Chinese American inventor Dr. An Wang of the Wang Laboratories who invented the magnetic computer core memory
On 825 All those in favour on, say aye 🙂
[finns – labor 1 coalition 0]
Cupid, is this the full time score?
Imagine the indictment (not to mention international embarrassment) on this country if that tit Abbot were to win given his ludicrous policies.
But then again ppl said that about Howard…..and Dubya.
Independently Thinking,
[I have also been spat on, called various unspeakable names, pushed over, had a punch thrown at me by a voter (try defending yourself with an armful of HTV cards) and at the last State Election was abused face to face by a moron because I was there. No How to Vote cards for me this election…]
No good you coming up to Qld to hand out any in that case.
That’d be a normal day on a quiet booth up here! 😉
IT, I have some war wounds from a few Libs and a particularly nasty FFer (I was defending a Green from them)
we have scored before the kick off lol thanks to the lib in the NT
OK, I have had my rant for this evening.
*departs*
If Costello has been campaigning in Higgins (as we’ve been told) where is Tanner doing anything he can to ensure his successor keeps his seat in Labor? He knows how likely the seat is going to fall…
Correction The Morgan’s poll is showing a 17,5% of undecided. His poling is every which way.
I’ve read that many posts today, my eyes are going blurry.
Meet the Press & Insiders coming up.
Night all!
The Labor loyalist skin seems a little thin tonight. 😎
Pebbles…I think I might have heard about that one…was that one where the FF staffer put the Greens HTV cards in the bin and then tried to stop them getting them out again?
Tanner is very much out there assisting Cathy Bowtell. But I think he “Personal vote” is over rated. Most of not all his personal support are wedded to the ALP. Very few would vote different based on Tanner not standing.
If Galaxy wanted to use their flawed methodology to produce headlines of big swings
in Queensland then they have to find some way of selecting 4 seats to poll that would
probably be swinging more than average to the Coalition.
Without having good previous poll data they might look at bookies individual seat
odds. In fact they could look at my recent (Aug11) table of expected individual seat swings calculated using Sportingbet implied individual seat probabilities.
http://dr–good.blogspot.com/
(see the white table)
Then they could pick four seats which seem to be swinging most. Eg in QLd, pick
4 from Bowman, Dawson, Leichhardt, Flynn and Dickson. Don’t pick from
Bonner, Longman, Petrie, Forde or Brisbane which seem to be holding up
OK.
Surprise, surprise. That seems to be what they have done.
That will make some headlines.
[The Labor loyalist skin seems a little thin tonight.]
Y-A-W-N
The Sun-Herald questioned 100 voters on Thursday and Friday as they left Australia House in the Strand, London. The result was Liberals 45 per cent, Labor 39 per cent and Greens 16 per cent.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-and-greens-a-hit-for-aussie-youth-in-exit-poll-20100814-12423.html
[The Sun-Herald questioned 100 voters]
Wow, they really went the whole hog!
[Pebbles…I think I might have heard about that one…was that one where the FF staffer put the Greens HTV cards in the bin and then tried to stop them getting them out again?]
I can’t remember. All I remember is the Green HtV volunteer was a young girl of about 18-19 and the FFer was this mean old bat of about 50-60 and she was laying on all this language about how the young girl was a “dyke” and a drug addict and other nasty language. I came out and stood up for her and this younger guy came out and confronted me and I told him to hit me, it would look great for his party on the 6 o’clock news… then he called me a “poof” or something and told me to stay at my area. For the rest of the day, we all stayed in our respective areas (For the record, the Greens, Democrats and us got along, the FFers were feral)