Morgan has now produced a phone poll which, unusually, was entirely conducted today. The sample for the poll was 966, about 300 higher than earlier Morgan phone polls. The poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party lead from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor, 44 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens. Labor’s two-party vote in this series had gone from 55.5 per cent when the election was called to 53 per cent in week two and 50 per cent in week three.
News Limited is also spruiking “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia”, covering 17 seats with a bumper sample of 4000, and it sounds like bad news for Labor. According to Channel Nine’s report, the poll has Labor “at risk” in 10 seats in Queensland and seven in New South Wales. More to follow, obviously.
UPDATE: So far I’ve been able to ascertain that Galaxy polled Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland and found a 5.4 per cent swing against Labor; Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in WA and found a 2.1 per cent swing against Labor; La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria and found a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor. Have to wait for detail on New South Wales.
In the WA seats, Labor’s primary vote was down from 41.3 per cent to 36 per cent; the Liberals up from 44.9 per cent to 46 per cent; Greens up from 7.9 per cent and 12 per cent. Julia Gillard led as preferred prime minister 48-36. The Coalition was rated more united 50-31; 30 per cent believe Tony Abbott’s four-point sales pitch and 66 per cent don’t; Gillard as rated preferred prime minister over Rudd 48-36; 13 per cent say Kevin Rudd’s recent involvement made them more likely to vote Labor, 8 per cent said less likely and 78 per cent no difference; 45 per cent believe themselves better off three years ago compared with 33 per cent worse off.
To Speak of Pebbles: The Briggs I’m referring to is David, the boss of Galaxy. 😀
pedant
[a government has lots of marginal seats, an opposition only a few.]
Does the government always have more marginal seats than the opposition? Looking at records it was about even after the last election for marginal seats held by each party.
[I haven’t been following the thread, but no doubt there’s been conspiracy theorising.]
I think incompetence was the charge, more than malevolence.
No, William. Our conspiracy theorising is the whole Illuminati/Jewish/IMF/Lizard people conspiracy theory. They are the reason the polls are neck and neck and why Bill Shorten is so charismatic.
[This effort from Galaxy is just what the doctor ordered – a poll that appears to show them heading for defeat but doesn’t really, and which can be used to sustain “but it’s close in the marginals!” arguments if/when favourable polls come in during the final week.]
Bilbo, i had it from a good authority that is what they call “the Maxwell99” trick. Sorry about that, Chief.
couriermail going over the old gillard stabs rudd excuse for justification
Hi
Did anyone else notice the number of uncommited voters in the Galaxy Poll added up to a total of 29%. Do they just ignore these and find somebody else or just exclude them from the total.
[To Speak of Pebbles: The Briggs I’m referring to is David, the boss of Galaxy]
Yeah, I know but earlier on, mysay was confused that I mentioned Briggs appearing in a Liberal ad. Saying that he is a pollster. I just realised the mistake.
Oh Diog, you are back to annoy me again. You gotta do better 😉
the galaxy poll should deter some of the protest vote, and give more reason for the queenslanders to have a look at Q&A on Monday night, and the two 7.30 interviews TA has scheduled –
donate now………
abbottstothedorchesterorbust.org.au
JV @ 740 – Tribal attachments are, of course, as common as muck: look at the way people attach themselves to football teams. I’ve been in countries – usually where there has been a struggle for independence – where the liberation movement is like a family, and people will stick with it regardless of its policies. And especially if you and your friends have made great sacrifices for the party during the struggle, it’s psychologically very difficult to admit to yourself that it wasn’t really worth it after all.
JV@740
Spoken like a true swinging voter.
Rusty laborites should consider how they look to readers.
Was that 99000 unique visitors or so in two weeks WB?
Why the hell would you vote against a party just because the leader is changed? its POLICY that matters most !!!
RT @AntonyGreenABC: Galaxy national figure should be ALP 51%. They averaged 5 state polls of 800, forgetting the different sizes of states. #ausvotes
Christ from a caravan park to Kirribili……..another one who we wont be able to budge!
g’night all..as always has been great to toss the good and bad around…is an awesum forum…stay well and confident everyone…
will he able to afford to live there? lol
Finns
You missed a big argument about Japan-China earlier. Something about ? GSEACPS? It went way over my head.
And you had better have at least bought that book my now. Otherwise I will have to send you a copy.
I suspect the poll error was News Ltd’s rather than Galaxy’s. It doesn’t appear in the PDF, which is probably what they provided them to have their wicked way with. The editors presumably decided their reports needed a headline figure, and they arrived at one a stupid way.
William Bowe
“and which can be used to sustain “but it’s close in the marginals!” arguments if/when favourable polls come in during the final week.”
wish you wouldn’t use my lines , but do think its also true (but DEPITE that trend wise I think Labor is in front) Under dog does forse people to actual considerr reality of Abbott actualy as PM , and that must be a benefit to Labor becaue wht is he reely offering say peoples
Antony is no doubt right on extrapolating a national figure, but the purpose of the poll IMO is to present the coalition as leading or likely winners and the target is the totally disengaged voter who only takes notice in the last few days and in being forced to vote checks out who the favourite is (like the disengaged footy pools tipsters) and follows the crowd or finds some other entrails viewing method of casting a vote.
This technique is repeated time and time again and was evident last election when polls in the last week heralded the ‘narrowing” and Howard coming wth a wet sail.
My opinion is that it was worth probably half a % or more as Labor sat at 54 TPP for much of the campaign.
This is a real danger for labor because at 51.5 – 52 TPP they should get there but it becomes more problematic at less than that.
Whether by luck or design the late ALP launch helps in counteracting the Murdoch cheerleading and mis presented and mis represented polling figures.
Roy Morgan has an agenda as do News Corp. Labor needs to hope for good figures and some media exposure for Essential and Neilsen polls.
They will also need to saturate the TV with Abbott dunce/risk adds and workchoice return adds to complement their strong economy story in places where it matters.
Attack will be the key word this week. Second will be vigilance against the dirty trick campaign which may still be in the kit bag.
[What is the thinking on Corangamite? Will Labor retain it?]
If Nielsen is any guide on pro-Lbor swing in Vic, Cheesy should get there. Geoff Robinson from Deakin Uni, the nearest we have to an expert in this area thinks Sarah Henderson will take it, but that was on the assumption of no such pro-Labor swing.
Abbott is not well liked in Vic – so may be on. Also Morrison’s near-daily stunts to drag Boat People into the equation are going down like a lead balloon.
with all the poll numbers/preferences/marginals etc flying about at this late hour maybe the north korean system might be easier to get my head around…..1PP.
WB
i knew youd get to the bottom of it
[No, William. Our conspiracy theorising is the whole Illuminati/Jewish/IMF/Lizard people conspiracy theory.]
Very well then. Carry on.
To Speak of Pebbles,
[ “Baseball bats ready for Labor”
Typical the LNP would have a thug mentality about this election… ]
A bit of desperation being shown by the LNP in Qld. The bloke that king hit Mike Brunker at Bowen is a life-long Nationals supporter & the chap that hooked the Labor supporter in Longman also a LNP supporter.
Mmmm. Maybe Galaxy’s polls aren’t that good after all. Looks like News Ltd’s Courier Mail is stepping up the campaign on behalf of the LNP also.
Dio @ 752 – I was putting forward a scenario in a thought experiment, not a statement of fact. That having been said, the question of whether uniform swings will produce the same net change of seats as a non-uniform swing of the same overall magnitude is a complex one, which depends on the extent to which seats are clumped on the pendulum, whether the swing moves into a part of the pendulum in which clumping is marked, and the standard deviation of the swing.
I think I will have inscribed in my headstone:
POLLING IS AN INEXACT SCIENCE.
There is a conspiracy among pollsters, media and blog pontificators and political operators to deny this, but it remains true, no matter who is conducting the polling or what their agenda is. No-one really knows what’s going on in the heads of uncommitted voters, and I think is truer for this election than for any I can remember. All we know, and all we can know, is that the election is fairly close and still in flux.
Radguy
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 12:01 am | Permalink
JV@740
“Spoken like a true swinging voter.”
j/v swings as much as a 20 tonne Bank vault door , Green cemented down
Psephos, fixed it for you:
POLLING IS INEXACT.
Psephos
the only poll thats exact is on aug 21st
scorps
Isn’t that two fights about politics in a day in Qld? What are you lot up to?
Here’s the dud number
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=499227&articleID
[And you had better have at least bought that book my now. Otherwise I will have to send you a copy.]
Diog, since Jules became the PM, i dont read much, simply doing Poll Dancing, it’s more exciting.
Cupidstunt @ 782
the only poll thats exact is on aug 21st
Except that prepoll and postal voting started some weeks ago, and more and more people are voting before polling day at each election. So some of the Labor supporters here might want to take stock of the fact that quite a few swingers may have voted right when the ALP campaign was, by general consent, in the doldrums.
[POLLING IS AN INEXACT SCIENCE.]
I hope you don’t have that on your gravestone as it would be incorrect. Polling is not a science. It is a technique.
779 Psephos
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 12:07 am | Permalink
I think I will have inscribed in my headstone:
“POLLING IS AN INEXACT SCIENCE.”
that is sum of your legacy How about a more sweetest victory thn 1993
Taking Mr. Green’s state 2PPs for the ALP as extrapolated from this poll I looked at the last election and came up with these 2PP swings relative to the ALP:
NSW minus 2.38%
Vic plus 1.6%
Qld. minus 5.4%
SA no change
WA minus 2.14%
Well if ever we needed proof that Sky News are outright liars, there it is.
[Oh yeah, a mate told me has a friend at Labor HQ who says everyone is a little downbeat. Mate wonders if it’s bad internal polling. half a minute ago via web]
I swear internal polling is such a tired cliche this election. If a politician so much as blinks, it is a tell of some sort of “internal polling.”
ill believe the fibs will win when the bookies say so.
[No-one really knows what’s going on in the heads of uncommitted voters, and I think is truer for this election than for any I can remember.]
One marked contrast with 2007 is that this time the water cooler conversation has been about complete trivia: Julia’s hair, Mark Latham, the three worms on one of the election coverages, etc.
In 2007 people were going on about WorkChoices and climate change. About the closest it got to trivia was talk about John Howard’s age, but that was a much more important thing than whether Julia was right to sit on the stool at Rooty Hill RSL, rather than getting closer to the audience.
Finns
I trust you are joining me in voting for the ASP this election.
[Except that prepoll and postal voting started some weeks ago, and more and more people are voting before polling day at each election. So some of the Labor supporters here might want to take stock of the fact that quite a few swingers may have voted right when the ALP campaign was, by general consent, in the doldrums.]
The general view in the parties is that it’s mostly committed voters who pre-poll (as I did yesterday). The real floaters are not interested in politics, remember, so they only vote reluctantly and mostly on the Saturday when they know they have to.
It looks like it’s back to the knock ém down drag ém out school of politics that Ron and myself cut our teeth on in Queensland.
My agent in Melbourne reports that they expect to hold Deakin.
pedant@762
Yes, I have quite a few friends who have personally suffered because, after decades of selfless service they gave the party, they were kicked in the guts by the likes of the NSW right, either directly or by dismay at the takeover by today’s hollow men. That’s why I not only know what they are like, but also decry their federal coup. But there will be concerted moves against them in the party after the election – regardless of the result, I am told. It could be quite destructive, but no matter. It’s too big to let alone.
I am biased, but even noting that, I thought it was remarkable that Labor went for the Parramatta-Epping train line promise. It sounded more like a Chaser “promise” than something they’d be silly enough to actually say, considering the Labor record on this issue.
Other than that you’d have to say most of the Labor handouts have been pretty well targetted, though.