If the campaign pattern to date is anything to go by, the present opinion poll drought should be broken tonight by Morgan, albeit in the form of a fairly small sample phone poll. For something meatier we will presumably have to wait until Nielsen tomorrow evening. Talk from the Labor camp is of “momentum” shifting their way, but confidence is placed no higher than that. Lyndal Curtis on PM says Labor insiders are “beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic”, while Matthew Franklin of The Australian says his sources agree “the result would be close and Queensland remained the key”.
“Sandbagging” has emerged as the buzzword of the late campaign, with Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald finding Labor has targeted “ultra-marginal seats” with $1.56 billion in grants drawn from funding set aside in the federal budget. Yesterday brought the campaign’s biggest item of targeted largesse so far:
Bennelong (Labor 1.4%) and Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Julia Gillard yesterday promised a $2.1 billion contribution to the 14 kilometre rail link between Parramatta and Epping, which currently constitutes a missing link between Sydney’s west and north. However, federal funding will not appear until 2014-15, lest it prevent the budget getting back in surplus in 2012-13. The present state government, which promised the project a decade a go but put it on the back-burner when it announced its transport strategy in February, promises to provide the remaining $520 million upfront, allowing work to start next year with completion scheduled for 2017. However, Barry O’Farrell says a state Coalition government would prefer to prioritise a north-west link from Epping to Rouse Hill and a south-west line from Glenfield to Leppington, which Labor has chosen to overlook. It is perhaps notable that they cover the less electorally interesting terrain of Mitchell and Werriwa. Beyond the more obvious beneficiaries of Bennelong and Parramatta, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes a Parramatta-Epping link would further “alleviate pressure on the city-bound western line which services commuters in other key marginal seats further west such as Lindsay, Greenway and Macquarie”.
Flynn (Labor 2.3%): Flynn has been the target of frenzied efforts from Labor in recent days, the town of Emerald alone (population 19,000) being targeted with a GP super clinic announcement from Nicola Roxon on Tuesday (Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail notes a trend of fortuitous placement for most of the state’s 13 such facilities) and a promise of $6 million to improve local sports facilities from Wayne Swan yesterday. The electorate’s dominant city, Gladstone, was targeted by Swan with $95 million for upgrading Calliope Crossroads on top of $55 million previously promised by both parties, and $50 million for the final stages of the Gladstone Port Access Road.
Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Wayne Swan was in Mackay yesterday promising $120 million to an upgrade of the Peak Downs Highway. The electorate has also been in the news due to an embarrassing student publication which Liberal National Party candidate George Christensen edited in 1998, which has come to light courtesy of (who else?) VexNews. The “official newsletter of the Conservative Students’ Alliance” featured the observation that “women are stupid” (apropos their enthusiasm for Will Smith) and a charming joke about gays and Aids. The publication has generated much discussion about the extent to which one’s “adolescent silliness”, as Tony Abbott would have it, should be visited upon the adult. Labor at least seems confident the electorate won’t be as kind to Christensen as Abbott, with The 7:30 Report offering that Labor was “convinced George Christensen can’t win”.
BK, Swan’s presser was just on. Sky ran it live. Not sure if its been picked up yet. But if it gets a run, the whole leaks/costing submission becomes irrelevant because the $8b alone blows the coalitions budget to buggery
I think the ABC now owns the copyright to the ad so selling or donating another similar ad might get the agency into strife.
this from the ABC. it will make some of Bludgers laugh
[The ABC says it cannot be seen to pick sides in the campaign.
An ABC spokesman was quoted as saying the advert was created solely for use on The Gruen Nation.
The Gruen Nation also provided reasons for the rejection on social networking site Twitter.
“@empatt Yep. All pitches in Gruen Nation and Transfer sign over copyright. Otherwise too risky for a organisation like the ABC to do it,” it said on its Twitter account.]
grant, this NBN list is gold for Labor
[Did you notice how dismissive Todd was regarding the anti green ad? All of the other panelists rated both ads as very good but not Todd. He also said to the ad maker “I think you’ll get a call in the morning” or wtte and so they did.
I think Todd might be green.
BTW I thought the anti green ad was the better one but it was a close call.]
Todd is a big arrogant douche who is completely subjective and biased towards his own views. Notice how he called it for the “Gillard” ad in the first week’s challenge when the “Abbott” one was clearly miles ahead, just because the “Gillard” ad had a nice leftist ideal behind it (as unfeasable as the idea is – and the ad was pretty dull.)
I don’t fault anyone for choosing the pro-Green ad. As I said, they were neck and neck, but the way Todd was completely dismissive of the anti-Green one showed what a hack he is.
I wonder if Robb is the source of the leaks and trying to pin it on Labor?
[One of which I live in.]
Me to grantplant.
Swan on 730 means this $8b has to get at least a bit of a run. Howard got slaughtered in the ?84 campaign over an error one hundred times lower
Denis Atkinson just criticising the Opposition for not submitting costings to Treasury.
But Boerwar, $8 billion is the new “b”, much better than boats. Will they mention it?
[Denis Atkinson just criticising the Opposition for not submitting costings to Treasury]
Tell Bluey about it.
[the $8b alone blows the coalitions budget to buggery]
The ALP must start talking loudly to the media about the massive tax increases that the opposition must have planned if they are to fund even half of their promises.
Bolt thinks that Robb is right. How surprisement.
Even Mrs Shanahan (Michelle) thinks the opposition should submit, particularly as they have run so hard on spending and deficits
BK
Fortunately, Bluey can count to eight.
The list of towns getting the fibre optic cables is here. Scroll right down the bottom and click on the link titled Location List of National Broadband Network. It is a PDF file.
Bolt dissing Sky about giving Latham any time. haha.
Both Swan and Gillard must hammer the fact that the coalitions deficit will be greater and their 2013 surplus is gone
Anyone care to post a link to the NBN town list?
Re: the Greens ad – surely the Greens could just buy the copyright. The ABC has sold rights it held to shows before. As long as the taxpayer recovers their full costs, no problem.
State by state list of NBN towns? Where is this?
[BK
Fortunately, Bluey can count to eight.]
BW
And Bluey would run rings around Abbott using octal based computing.
Should send the Coalition one of those children’s calculators that play music and speak and are designed to teach them basic arithmetic! 😆
Atkinson thinks Latham is bad for Labor turning up with Abbott. Bad for Labor on 60 minutes. bad. bad. bad.
BK
Unlike Abbott, Bluey is comfortable with his innumeracy.
“Is there a link anywhere that explains the detail of the Libs’ $8b issue?”
only if you want to go back to Barnaby Joyce’s kinda maths , polisys listed twice and a doosy of spell , a 15 million item shown as 1.5 milion
i think it has alot to do with the ABC not wanting to show favour in the electoral process… cough cough splutter…..
[NBN list – Trentham]
Noice indeed, no chance we would get decent coverage with the rabbott plan, now I can move house happy that we will have decent broadband
[Atkinson thinks Latham is bad for Labor turning up with Abbott.]
Labor: damned if we do, damned if we don’t. Damned if somebody whose actions we have no control over does/doesn’t.
I’ll give Latham a little credit – at least he’s a bipartisan dickhead!
Thanks Confessions. We should call you Revelations 🙂
As for the coalition’s $8 Bn, it is hardly a surprise, some great big new promises, with no tax on miners = a great big new debt.
Where did this “how x-ment” line come from? I first saw it on Lolcats, did it originate there?
just pick up a dissatisfied ALP voter.
850 grantplant
Posted Thursday, August 12, 2010 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
“It’s basically a state by state list of the towns that *will* get the NBN. Therefore, if Abbott wins, those towns miss out.”
One of which I live in.
they are on the alp web site i think confession said. but i cannot find them
love a link so we can do a few talk back emails
Frank, i gather the $8b nowhere on Twitter. We need it out there!
my say@882
There 🙂
http://alp.org.au/getattachment/fb455905-5958-46b8-84cd-36e33c96e973/nbn/
Three percent is very significant to bookmakers and any punter who doesn’t want to go bankrupt.
[As for the coalition’s $8 Bn, it is hardly a surprise, some great big new promises, with no tax on miners = a great big new debt]
yes frank where are u.
[I wonder if Robb is the source of the leaks and trying to pin it on Labor?]
That is what some of us PB’s have been asking. It’s a neat & tidy excuse not to submit your policies for costing.
Socrates, it is not a result of their spending not adding up, its a specific error on indexation of pensions. They either have to change policy, cut spending or increase taxes
Anyone having power problems in QLD?
Not happy.
Still no mention of it anywhere. I guess it’s not important enough to rate a mention.
of which I live in.
[they are on the alp web site i think confession said. but i cannot find them
love a link so we can do a few talk back emails ]
Do we have a list of those that miss out with Tony
Ahh the Luddite:
@Dee/887,
Ahh sorry, Just jumped in the discussion, been out today, and power probs atm.
Here’s a Google map from Whirlpool showing where NBN is done, planned for etc:
http://www.computerworld.com.au/nbn/
nothing on our abc news website. NBN boss defends speed hike timing and Robb asks for AFP. This is absolutely ridiculous
my say
http://alp.org.au/agenda/nbn/
Just scroll down to bottom of page and each state is shown as a link to a pdf file.
Although I see Frank has just answered your question. 🙂
[It’s a neat & tidy excuse not to submit your policies for costing.]
But if the costings are accurate then there’s nothing to fear from a leak. Robb’s problem is that the costings are completely dodgy and won’t stand up to even a minute of casual scrutiny.
I wonder whether the Grech investigation results will come out sometime soon.
(Talking of leaks).
No Tom, Robb’s claim is that since the costings were leaked it shows that Treasury is not impartial and that therefore its costings cannot be trusted to be accurate.
we were all bleating about this three days ago and still labor keeps using money on the negative Tony ads instead of the positive NBN ads. PEOPLE DON”T KNOW ABOUT THIS POLICY!! I can’t make it any clearer. The message has been lost becasue in the media it has been about who’s is best and naturally that descends into detail, mud slinging and very few journo’s actually want to stick their necks out. So people go… whatever sounds complicated and they are all arguing about it so I will move on. This should be the biggest vote winner in regional Australia. Just prin the bloody names in the paper with a heading “Labor wants to give your communtiy the ability to compete for jobs, money and to secure your communities future. If you are on this list the LNP will not”.. or something… print each state list in each state rag and keep it simple!!…