If the campaign pattern to date is anything to go by, the present opinion poll drought should be broken tonight by Morgan, albeit in the form of a fairly small sample phone poll. For something meatier we will presumably have to wait until Nielsen tomorrow evening. Talk from the Labor camp is of “momentum” shifting their way, but confidence is placed no higher than that. Lyndal Curtis on PM says Labor insiders are “beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic”, while Matthew Franklin of The Australian says his sources agree “the result would be close and Queensland remained the key”.
“Sandbagging” has emerged as the buzzword of the late campaign, with Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald finding Labor has targeted “ultra-marginal seats” with $1.56 billion in grants drawn from funding set aside in the federal budget. Yesterday brought the campaign’s biggest item of targeted largesse so far:
Bennelong (Labor 1.4%) and Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Julia Gillard yesterday promised a $2.1 billion contribution to the 14 kilometre rail link between Parramatta and Epping, which currently constitutes a missing link between Sydney’s west and north. However, federal funding will not appear until 2014-15, lest it prevent the budget getting back in surplus in 2012-13. The present state government, which promised the project a decade a go but put it on the back-burner when it announced its transport strategy in February, promises to provide the remaining $520 million upfront, allowing work to start next year with completion scheduled for 2017. However, Barry O’Farrell says a state Coalition government would prefer to prioritise a north-west link from Epping to Rouse Hill and a south-west line from Glenfield to Leppington, which Labor has chosen to overlook. It is perhaps notable that they cover the less electorally interesting terrain of Mitchell and Werriwa. Beyond the more obvious beneficiaries of Bennelong and Parramatta, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes a Parramatta-Epping link would further “alleviate pressure on the city-bound western line which services commuters in other key marginal seats further west such as Lindsay, Greenway and Macquarie”.
Flynn (Labor 2.3%): Flynn has been the target of frenzied efforts from Labor in recent days, the town of Emerald alone (population 19,000) being targeted with a GP super clinic announcement from Nicola Roxon on Tuesday (Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail notes a trend of fortuitous placement for most of the state’s 13 such facilities) and a promise of $6 million to improve local sports facilities from Wayne Swan yesterday. The electorate’s dominant city, Gladstone, was targeted by Swan with $95 million for upgrading Calliope Crossroads on top of $55 million previously promised by both parties, and $50 million for the final stages of the Gladstone Port Access Road.
Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Wayne Swan was in Mackay yesterday promising $120 million to an upgrade of the Peak Downs Highway. The electorate has also been in the news due to an embarrassing student publication which Liberal National Party candidate George Christensen edited in 1998, which has come to light courtesy of (who else?) VexNews. The “official newsletter of the Conservative Students’ Alliance” featured the observation that “women are stupid” (apropos their enthusiasm for Will Smith) and a charming joke about gays and Aids. The publication has generated much discussion about the extent to which one’s “adolescent silliness”, as Tony Abbott would have it, should be visited upon the adult. Labor at least seems confident the electorate won’t be as kind to Christensen as Abbott, with The 7:30 Report offering that Labor was “convinced George Christensen can’t win”.
“Foreign investment in Australia’s telecommunications market will continue to be low if either side of politics do not force the structural separation of Telstra, the director of Telecom New Zealand has told a business forum in Sydney.
Speaking at the SAS Forum in Sydney Telecom NZ director, Rod McGeoch, said the Opposition’s recently announced broadbnad plan to leave the regulatory environment untouched- essentially not structurally separating Telstra’s wholesale and retail arms -was unbelievable.
Talking on the government’s regulatory support and investment incentive structure for the resources sector, McGeoch said the telecommunications industry had suffered an “unbelievable abrogation of the insistence of a policy for access to infrastructure.”
“I was on the board of AAPT when we sold it to Telecom for $2 billion, it is in the books now for just over $400 million,. Why? Becasue the access regime, the government settings in Australia destroyed any other companies opportunity to get a fair go on the Telstra network.”
You have to have the settings right to get the capital to come into the market for investment, he said.
“What we have seen in the telecommunications market is a very poor set of settings, very poor administration of policy, and foreign capital has burnt when we could have had a phenomenal breadth of telecommunication options right across the country. And where that Opposition plan is more troubling is that they are going to leave Telecom [Telstra] as a vertically integrated company as that is how we sold it. Because you simply can’t get fair go across the network if they are also trying to make a quid off it.”
Four of Australia’s biggest Internet service providers (ISPs) ripped into the Federal Opposition’s broadband policy as failing to provide a competitive market structure after the Competitive Carriers Coalition also expressed concerns.
Representatives from Internode, iiNet, iPrimus and Optus added their voice to the growing crowd of experts slamming the Coalition’s alternative to the National Broadband Network (NBN).
In a short but brutal reply to his thoughts on the policy, iPrimus chief executive officer, Ravi Bhatia, came back with two words: What policy?”
http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/356738/foreign_investment_telco_sector_suffer_under_opposition_broadband_plan/
ltep. its a serious allegation.
Frank do you have a way of geting he 8 b out o twitterPlease
Come on guys, costings smoshtings, the $8b is the new game in town
[No Tom, Robb’s claim is that since the costings were leaked it shows that Treasury is not impartial and that therefore its costings cannot be trusted to be accurate.]
Sounds like he is trying to play the victim card.
If you go to the NBN site you’ll get all of the maps for both the first and second rollout phases. The first phase maps are resolved down to street level. http://www.nbnco.com.au
my say@905
I’ve already done it TWICE
Andrew
[Socrates, it is not a result of their spending not adding up, its a specific error on indexation of pensions. They either have to change policy, cut spending or increase taxes]
Thanks; I have been very busy with work in the past few days and haven’t kept up. In that case it is much worse I agree.
For the reasons I suggested, I also don’t think their other promises woudl pass full treasury scrutiny if submitted anyway. Logically, the debt must be higher under the Liberals given their promises, unless they break their promises.
[ltep. its a serious allegation.]
Of course it is. It amounts to a smearing of a Government department. Are they telling us that if they’re elected they will not trust the advice given to them by the Treasury? I’m actually shocked no questions have been asked of this nature.
how about Internode, iiNet, iPrimus and Optus put their money where their mouth is and sponsors some ads like the miners… talk about a game changer….
@Psephos #881
I think it originated with satire in the eighties – Greek ?Effie “How embarrassment”
I want to thank all on this blog for giving me a lovely day and lots of laughs.
As it happens I am in McEwen and I need them.
Thanks Frank. It seems ATM that we are the only ones who care. There were press at the presser. What are they reporting? I think Gillard should call one too on this issue. It is very important
Thanks aurocrat. Good site.
yes mike, business advertising for Labor. Pigs might fly. But I agree that the NBN could be a game changer if the campaign runs with it
Sorry – Autocrat, not aurocrat
@mikeiright/910.
They have, it’s called the court cases against Telstra over the 10 years. This is partly the reason for they are against the Coalitions call a “What Policy”?
Please gets some facts before putting your words where you shouldn’t.
Anyone picking up the story on the $8 billion on the blogosphere?
ltep Hockey completely got away with criticising Treasury for making favorable forecasts for the government. The forecasts were spot on in the end BTW
To add to my disgust, Mike.
The Telco’s and ISP’s have been advertising for Structural Separation for a quiet a while now.
Dee, we are the only ones who give a toss. Its only $8b after all, the same cost as the BER. Trivial
The problem is it’s hard to find anyone who will take a sizeable bet at betfair,although it might be different when it comes to elections.Abbott is big overs but I don’t know if I can bring myself to back him.
Cant find the $8b anywhere. I must have hallcuinated that presser
Look, if the MSN aren’t all over the $8 billion now, they will be after Swannie get stuck into Joe in 7.30 Report Land.
The Coalition – a billion here, 8 billion there. Soon we’ll be talking about real money.
When the Libs blow a budget, they really blow a budget.
Yes, of course, it was Effie, thimamai tora! Efharisro poli!
Andrew BER cost was $16.5 billion but increase in cost estimated at 5 -6% by Orgill attributed in part to need to implement quickly, so less than a $1billion premium for quick roll out – arguably waste although as part of the stimulus it is also arguably not waste.
You might be watching one too many lib ads.
Robb’s comments about the supposed Treasury/Finance leaks is one of the lamest excuses I’ve heard for a while. The whole idea is that the political parties are made accountable to the public by having the proposals independently costed (actually, unless the proposals involve a change to the taxation system, the costings will be done exclusively in Finance, but Treasury has a higher public profile, so it tends to get the credit. Press Gallery journos neither know nor care which department is which: I’ve heard the ABC’s “senior” political correspondent, Lyndall Curtis, refer several times to costings being done by “the Department of Treasury and Finance”!!).
Anyway, what does it matter if the results “leak”? They are supposed to be released to the public anyway. And it was the Libs who set up this so-called “transparent” scheme.
I think Gillard should keep hammering away at this issue, particularly if the $8 billion story gets any legs.
Burgey, I’m not so sure. But I wonder how a group full of press at a press conference can get away with not reporting the reason for the press conference, even if they did it as “govt accuses” etc
[Thursday, August 12, 2010 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
Anyone care to post a link to the NBN town list?
Re: the Greens ad – surely the Greens could just buy the copyright. The ABC has sold rights it held to shows before. As long as the taxpayer recovers their full costs, no problem.
]
would you socretas ring conroy re the list i just gave them a rev up its the second phone no when you google in the middle
We want a list of tone no go towns
From the OO online, of all places, today;
“AN ACTU animated video showing two budgies flying into Tony Abbott’s bathers has been suspended by YouTube for violating the site’s terms of use.
The peak union body uploaded the viral ad earlier today, calling it a humorous attack on Mr Abbott’s workplace relations stance.
The ad features Mr Abbott greeting the two birds by name, Work and Choices, as they land on his shoulder, before they fly down into his swimming trunks.
It goes on to ask what Mr Abbott is really hiding as the birds move about in his trunks and Mr Abbott smiles.
A spokesman for the ACTU said they believed the ad had been suspended automatically after it was flagged as inappropriate by some viewers.
He said Liberal supporters were suspected of bombarding YouTube with complaints.
While the ad has been suspended by YouTube, part of search giant Google, the ACTU is continuing to play the ad on its own website.”
And here is the said advt:
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/Home/Campaigns/WorkChoices-Never-Again.aspx
If it has been stopped by complaining Libs than I say ” Get a Life!” to them.
Sorry, Psephos, what you said was all Greek to me.
Anybody – did Barnaby really muddle up the Coorong with Kooyong?
I think we’ve had enough rain in Melbourne that we don’t need to flood the tennis courts.
may bee they would have to put up the gst if they kept spening like this
Swan’s Presser:
http://alp.org.au/federal-government/news/transcript-wayne-swan-doorstop,-mackay/
[From the OO online, of all places, today;
“AN ACTU animated video showing two budgies flying into Tony Abbott’s bathers has been suspended by YouTube for violating the site’s terms of[
why not alter it just a little bit make it more acceptable mmmm
Frank Calabrese@933
whoops, that was from Yesterday.
“why not alter it just a little bit make it more acceptable mmmm”
Down the back of his swimmers instead maybe? 😉
The Libs will still have to release their costings, the accountants they use will “qualify” the report saying something like “we rely on assumptions made by Andrew Robb”.
It wont be worth a knob of goat poo but it will give “costings” and budget figures prominence in the last week.
thanks Frank, I thought I was going crazy. Still nothing on the $8b
Have I missed a Morgan while I’ve been away or have they not released it yet?
So Tones, is this ‘complete crap’ then? –
The planet has never been as hot as it has been in the first half of this year, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a July report.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has tracked the impact of human activity on climate for the past 20 years, droughts and heatwaves likes those affecting Russia and 18 US states become longer and more intense in a warming planet.
“Whether in frequency or intensity, virtually every year has broken records, and sometimes several times in a week,” said Omar Baddour, who tracks climate change for the World Meteorological Organisation.”
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/weather-blocker–jet-stream-stops-and-causes-disasters-20100812-120th.html
deary me , “how x-ment” is part of English’s continuing evolution for better
Not released yet chinda. It’ll be on 7 News.
[Have I missed a Morgan while I’ve been away or have they not released it yet?]
Only “shock” polls get released early. 😆
itep @ 909
[Of course it is. It amounts to a smearing of a Government department. Are they telling us that if they’re elected they will not trust the advice given to them by the Treasury? I’m actually shocked no questions have been asked of this nature.]
The Opposition has been shitcanning Treasury in general and Ken Henry in particular for months, softening up the electorate for just this sort of smear caper to muddy the waters as they try to squirm out of their committments to submitting their dodgy costings.
Play the man, not the ball, is the standard operating procedure for these charlatans.
not released chinda. due tonight if they follow their usual pattern
The Morgan poll must show ALP with a 52-48 lead given their price of 1.41 on Betfair.
“Have I missed a Morgan while I’ve been away or have they not released it yet?”
no , but as its a Morgan phone poll you can miss it and miss no thing
Grog
Well this is what you thought last night about the rooty hill show:
[
except the exit poll was 71 TA, 59 Julia so 54% will say that and 46% won’t. Hardly game changing.
C’mon guys it’s a sky news program.
90% of people wouldn’t even be able to remember the debate – or care about it. How many poeple do you think will care about something that wasn’t a debate that they didn’t
even see??
Really, you’re going to read in The Daily Tel that Abbott performed well in a non-debate event at Rooty Hill, and so you say “hmmm I guess I’ll vote for him then”.
Please.]
Several dozen news articles later and a number one rating in the twitterverse and I might give you a chance to recant. Don’t worry though, we’ll just blame all those nasty biased media outlets and a couple of million biased twitterers. Surely you don’t want dumb people voting for the ALP anyway, right?? 😉
Not necessarily JackLacton.
Where are the broadband ads – are they coming out this weekend. Abbott is a dunce on this and the ALP should hammer it home. As one commentator suggested if Abbott was PM 100yrs ago we would not have built a telephone network – devestating.
NBN and The economy -relentless ads