Newspoll breaks it down

The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.

The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.

Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.


As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “Newspoll breaks it down”

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  1. thanks MB that is indeed what I was trying to say (plus some of my dearest friends are from Frankston, so look forward to their reaction when I refer to it as Franga!)

  2. [While it is quite a feat that Young Libs manage to continually outdo themselves in the annoying stakes, their stupidity really is something else. Could they not put up a better undercover agent than a moron who was on Big Brother and a couple of loudmouth uni operatives?] – pancho 1702

    Not all that surprising, Pancho. Look at Scott Morrison’s stunts on Boat People this campaign: Dash to Brisbane with Deputy Julie Bishop in tow to meet Nauruan official; hijacks debate on sustainable growth with Tony Burke, transforming it into Boat People (then has the cheek to complain that Burke’s there and not the Immigration Minister); makes another dash to Brisbane with Abbott in tow to meet Nauruan President; urgent presser about Boat People again with Abbott, keeping him away from Coalition launch on their broadband policy (not a bad move, in retrospect, after seeing Abbott that night with Kerry);then has another presser urging the Government not to punish Nauru for his stunts if they get returned.

    Talk about a Young Liberal twit who never grew up. But come to think of it, Abbott’s rhetoric and debating style is of much the same ilk.

  3. Thanks CK, your current view was also my appraisal of them both last week. I recorded both so at least I will enjoy Gruen and delete Chaser, which is getting too old and boring for mine.

  4. Ahh the OO Tomorrow:

    # australian

    Libs lost for words over broadband plans: THE last Coalition politician working the room after Tuesday’s broadband… 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    People smuggler could get 20 years: AN Iraqi albino touted as a people-smuggling “kingpin” has been convicted of s… 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Parents to quit childcare: More than a third of parents relying on childcare say they will be forced to quit their… 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    People warm to a leader at their level: TONY Abbott casually took to the floor at the people’s forum at the Rooty … 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    PM ‘wrong’ on jobs boost claims: RESERVE Bank director Warwick McKibbin has directly contradicted Labor’s claim th… 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  5. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ # 1992

    in breach of ATO regulations

    All the ATO is interesting in is the money.

    In respect of Pell what money?

    If you know the ATO at all you would know that they don’t fart unless there is some law or regulation that says they can.

  6. The Russian heatwave and fire crises will push up cereal price around the world ,and will push up inflation too.. as the price of bread,cereal based -foods.cakes and chicken and pig production rise… and this will causes shortages which will have real political effects in poor countries like Egypt ans India,but will cause a rise in prices here too.
    In Australia cereal growers will do well as the cost of wheat has already risen sharply due to the Russian export ban,to $300 a ton.
    That will effect interest rates so whoever wins on the 21st July will face a worried electorate. so ..fasten your safety belts!!

  7. deblonay,

    I’m not sure if you point will have any electoral impact, but you are right, the price of bread is about to rise, whoever gets in.

  8. [This will put the public discourse back on how well Abbott is doing and will stifle her momentum. This is the tragic part of this for me: was this Rooty Hill thing really necessary for Julia.]

    It was, In the Know. Ever since she ditched the plastic shopping mall walk approach she’s been reaching out for dialogue. She’s playing to her strength. No journos have caught her out, she handled Latham with aplomb, and she’s spent much of the time between promos on policy releases encouraging further discussion. She’s thriving on it and looking every inch a prime minister in charge. Contrast that with Abbott, who can’t go the distance in pressers, was slaughtered by Red Kerry the other night, and has consistently squibbed it in debating the economy.

    It doesn’t matter much how the media spins it. That message is still getting out there. She’s a class act and this is showing up wherever she goes now. Abbott in contrast really only seems to have the mantra of cliches.

    In any case, it’s pretty weird doing a score when there was specifically no debate. As another poster said, scoring 59-71 with 70 undecideds in what seemed a hostile audience was pretty good.

    Mick Wilkinson’s wrong on this. It is not a game-changer on perceptions of the two. That happened earlier this week. By the way, Mick, you and Ryan are very welcome here. It’s good to have some thoughtful stuff from the right.

  9. PS..Ryan still waiting for your reply re Abbotts workchoices intentions….I look forward to your next contribution so I can hook in….and engage… plus your denial of the Jesuit connection…which you know you cannot…how do I know? isn’t life fun 🙂

  10. Rooty Hill ‘debate’ , why it was a great Julia success

    But first , am abit ashamed hearing some PB comantariet here talk of fellow Aussies in such a condecend way

    (Instead of looking at socio econamic and educaton ladder opportunitys available , which is what ‘left’ is about improving , and not damn lattee ‘caviar feel good’ non bread & butter issues) Actualy I went out working tonite and did not see it live , and since seen most of Julia’s answers on replay , but i decided did not want to see any of Tonys , why watch BS

    My MSN take on Debate was what i said beforehand , MSN will run a pro Abbott headlines anyway

    However re Rooty Hill Debate itself , Julia answered very tough Q’s put including on Debt , unemploy , pensions , teachers bonus , same sex marriage, ETS , CC generally , new rail line

    Remember that her answers were TO a viewing audiense of alot of undecided voters who expected tough Q’s put so that they can decide how to vote , and whatever numbers of viewers were watching Sky , I beleive Julia addressed to those undecided Viewers alot of Abbotts lies quite well thru Julia being hard grilling:

    on new rail line that work does strats in 2011 , ETS was going to be Law if Libs had not welched on a Turnbull deel , she said she is still going flat out for a price on carbon , that our Debt= to $6000 personal debt for a 100,000 wage earner , Labor has incr no of doctors trained and no surgerys done & pointed out Abbott’s very own 1 billion Hospitals gorging , and that econamy and jobs and kids education is her prioritys

    Now all of these hard Q’s (which is WHAT swingers want to hear) , and her fine rebuts got beemed into Sky TV undecided viewers homes , I think she out won lots , and lost very few Now if anyone thinks Abbott won alot of undecided Sky TV viewers I’d like to know why/how seeing i no watch Tony’s show

    therefore th 200 people’s opinion at actual Debate is irrelevent MSN is , but so is lots of undecided viewers Julai won/ swayed abit

  11. you got an educaton , others for socio econamic reasons did not But yours was squandered because a pre requisite of its useful usege is commonsense and wisdom

  12. As if 🙂

    Australian Politics aus_politics

    Readying for hung parliament: If there is a hung parliament three independent MPs will decide whether Julia Gillar… 2 minutes ago via twitterfeed


    Australian Politics aus_politics

    NBN download boost ups ante: THE National Broadband Network will today unveil plans to boost download speeds on th… 2 minutes ago via twitterfeed

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