Newspoll breaks it down

The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.

The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.

Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.


As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “Newspoll breaks it down”

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  1. Just back in, saw a bit of Julia but nothing of Anthony Abbott. My question of the forum is this.

    How does a commercial media company get sole live broadcast rights to a public forum with the Prime Minister of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in a Federal election, two publicly paid parliamentary officers, to the exclusion of other entities, including the Australian Public broadcaster? I believe this is unethical and that both Julia Gillard PM and Anthony Abbott MP, should have declined appearing in such circumstances.

    I believe all public appearances of the leaders should be freely available and shared amongst all networks.

  2. [No, mate you are speaking through your cable-laying apparatus, every punch in this election counts. Julia won the week Tony won this, dead simple.]
    More BS Mick, you’re doing well.

  3. Fly

    Big issue, alot of councils in WA are seeing an increase in service demand but no commensurate funding

    the unions have segued basic conditions into a regional issue

    barnett and the fibs are wedged

    the state nats want services

  4. Let me be extra clear.

    The reason why I am so impressed by the ALP avoiding recession is they should never have created the 1991 recession so in many ways they had the GFC as the ultimate punishment for 1991 and the have redeemed themselves.

  5. Well, ‘The Age’ is not that impressed.

    ‘It was supposed to be an audience of swinging voters, but by the time Opposition Leader Tony Abbott came to the stage, some appeared to have already made up their minds.

    While Mr Abbott was welcomed with clapping and whistles as he entered the auditorium of the Rooty Hill RSL Club for a town hall-style people’s forum on Wednesday night, Prime Minister Julia Gillard had left the room a half hour earlier to polite applause.

  6. Please with the “badlands” stuff about Western Sydney from the bores. That is just awful. Since when does slagging people off win an election?

  7. holy cow,

    Lindsay around Penrith at base of Blue Mts. was rock solid for Liberal Sports Minister, Jackie Kelly. She beat current charisma-challenged Labor incumbent, Bradbury, twice and would still win comfortably (assuming those nasty racist fake pamplets hadn’t been whipped out by her husband).

  8. [henry @ 1935,

    but western sydney is, more or less, considered part of traditional labor-party heartland.]
    But is it holycow? For years they were considered Howards battlers, they loved his middle class welfare and swallowed his spin about boats and interest rates.
    My impression of them is they they will follow the party that keeps them safe from the illegals, keep their interest rates low so they can swelter in their McMansions and give them a baby bonus or some other handout on a drip feed basis.
    I don’t think there are too many rusted ons out there – keep ’em plump and well fed so to speak and they are relatively docile. If they feel they have been dudded in any way, shape or form however, watch out! There ire is palpable and they will turn on you quick as a flash.

  9. Darn @ 1968

    [how much of a vote changer do you think the promised Epping rail line will be for Labor]

    It’ll just piss off the voters because they’ve had a thousand such announcements and they don’t believe it will ever happen.

  10. atticus @ 1962,

    i know. prior to 1996, it all used to be labor heartland, then in 1996, BANG! it became part of liberal’s battlers for 11 years.

    did you see the chaser last week when they ambushed bradbury with an amphibious landing vehicle? *mumbles something about landlocked electorate fearing being invaded by asylum seekers *

  11. Henry@1936

    For a couple of years I worked at a training college -close to the Rooty Hill RSL. Meet plenty of good people motivated to change there lives – I kinda miss not being there to help some of them along.

    Still – when you walk around the shopping centre you see a people who don’t have jobs – maybe don’t want a job, & you can’t help but notice how many obese people there are – a lot on junk food diets. Sadly you get the impression they aren’t interested in taking the opportunities available to them – like a vocational training course.

    But the place is impossible to pigeon hole – the variety of folk around that area is amazing. My overal impression is optimistic & more so if Julia can get in and implement education policies to help disadvantaged schools. Did Tony mention anything about that tonight? No way.

  12. drake@ # 1869

    “On the subject of Pell, it was interesting to read in the Herald today that he is in breach of ATO regulations by engaging in partisan political debate whilst representing a non-taxed entity.

    He should be called to account.”

    What utter rubbish

    What ATO regulations? As far as I am aware there is no regulation that prohibits anyone from engaging in “partisan political debate”. This would mean that anyone that works for a charity or benevolent institution would be unable to engage in any discussion on most topics.

    There is no limit on ones “rights” to engage in political debate because one is ”connected” with a particular entity.

  13. In case nobody’s posted this AAP article yet from SMH

    [Twittersphere slams Rooty Hill audience August 11, 2010 – 9:59PM

    The Twittersphere has attacked the impartiality of the 200 undecided voters selected to fire questions at the leaders at the Rooty Hill RSL Club.

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott fronted the 200 swinging voters, selected by political pollsters Galaxy, at the town hall-style meeting organised by Sydney’s Daily Telegraph newspaper and televised on Sky News.

    But many observers on social networking site Twitter said the audience was stacked with supporters of Mr Abbott.]

  14. I do not know enough about Sydney to say much on the proposed rail link from Parramatta and Epping butI will say this much

    Historically Rail building projects are vote winners. even without this project I would have expected the ALP to hold Parramatta and a strong chance to hold Bennenlong

  15. [did you see the chaser last week when they ambushed bradbury with an amphibious landing vehicle? *mumbles something about landlocked electorate fearing being invaded by asylum seekers *]

    Yes, saw the Chaser’s that night, and this was one of the few genuinely amusing segments. Bradbury tries to escape into his car, if I remember rightly.

  16. The Daily Telegraph readers are clearly very engaged in the election … the current “Most Read Today” story for the website is “Bondage man dies in tree sex stunt”

  17. That ‘vast’ technical detail that ‘I-am-a-d1ckhead-not-a-techhead’ Abbott needs to adequately discuss FTTH broadband he could have found by spending 5 minutes reading Wiki on the internet.

    The internet, yes Tone, the I N T E R N E T.

  18. henry @ 1969,

    i know what you mean.

    they’re still the target of middle class welfare, and the mcmansions are still spreading, they’ve even penetrated up to glenbrook!

    it will be a brave government that decides to turn off the middle-class welfare tap!

  19. brisbanebulldog. My condolences to his next of kin.

    [The Daily Telegraph readers are clearly very engaged in the election … the current “Most Read Today” story for the website is “Bondage man dies in tree sex stunt”]

    That said, did the tree consent?

  20. [The Daily Telegraph readers are clearly very engaged in the election … the current “Most Read Today” story for the website is “Bondage man dies in tree sex stunt”]

    Trees have rights too, you know?

  21. Good evening bludgers one and all. I have spent most of the day within 1km of Rooty Hill RSL. No, I have not been there to confront Mark Latham or Tony Abbott for their devaluing of the Sydney University brand (I overlapped with TA and have not revised my opinion of him upwards since 1979; sadly I have had to revise my opinion of Latham downwards in recent times); or even to watch Julia live on stage. I have been with my mum who is on the way out with cancer – she doesnt live in the immediate area but the best option was at Mt Druitt. A very good hospital. A teaching hospital of the University of Western Sydney. The same university where as a PhD in early childhood education she used to teach. The same university of course that Tory Tony and his mates would not have any time for whatsover – because it’s just for Westies not for proper rah rahs like him.

    But, to my point, I would tonight or any night rather not see anyone on this blog giving even the faintest appearance of a sneer about the people of Rooty Hill and surrounding areas. Rail against the institutions that deprive them of opportunity and access to information by all means. But do not disparage the people. Thus spake Gough.

  22. On what I saw last week, Chaser have become a rather tired and boring old joke. I recorded tonight’s ep… but don’t expect much if I bother to watch it. Any reason I should?

  23. MM – You make an excellant point for I spent my high school years in Frankston and I know that Frankston is not as bad as people make it out to be and while I now live in a leavy middle class suburb I know I am a better person both for having lived in Franga but due to the quality teraching I did receive.

    Many people like to make out that Franston has bad schools full of going no where students, well that is just bull shit, sure some did go no where but most haver turned out very well.

    If we are serious in this country about improving Western Sydney or any other similar place, what we need is a serious investment in Education and a serious plan to build and maintain a strong economy and from what I can see there is only one party offering that and that is

    The ALP

  24. just back in, had a emergency call out, sorry…anyone seen lateline is it worth a watch or should I grab a milo and head for bed, bit of a bad scene at a govt house so if its a bore will head for a sleep, cheers been a big day all in all..dont think Julia lost too many points all up…

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