The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.
The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.
Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.
As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.
Queensland still sulking and sooking. The good thing is that Queensland has stopped the Rabbott from being able to get out and campaign effectively nationally. It is beginning to look like the tantrums from the Queensland National Party and its major sponsors the Mudroch Press and the ABC are costing the Liberal campaign in terms of tying up time and electoral resources.
Good to see NSW moving in the right direction. A primary of 28 in WA even with a bigger green vote…This seems pretty off the charts?!?!!? Good feelings here in SA especially after qanda broadcast here on monday night…Problem is we don’t have many bloody seats!
Good to see NSW moving in the right direction. A primary of 28 in WA even with a bigger green vote…This seems pretty off the charts?!?!!? Good feelings here in SA especially after qanda broadcast here on monday night…Problem is we don’t have many bloody seats!
Someone here mentioned the state breakdowns were less accurate for the overall seat count last time than either the national polls or the betting makrets. Still, you’d have to accept the Coalition are still well and truly in the race.
Were in the race Itep. A week is a long time in politics
[Still, you’d have to accept the Coalition are still well and truly in the race.]
Especially the Tory candidate for Dawson who is out of the race but it hasn’t quite dawned on the political genius yet. He really is the poorest excuse for a candidate.
[The election campaign heated up yesterday when Mr Christensen suggested the ALP was running a smear campaign which has increased the intensity levels in the lead up to the great debate.
According to Mr Christensen a copy of a newsletter, produced when he was a teenager, has been circulated in an attempt to smear his campaign.]
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2010/08/09/great-debate-send-us-your-questions-do-you-have-a-/
Well here I am up at sparrow’s farthing to wave goodbye to dearest daughter and partner winging it to back Perth, where, dd tells me, it cost her $210 to get her hair done and ’tis only $135 here is Adelaide. Why she spends so much blondeing her magnificent’ranga mane I have no idea, but there ya go. Maybe tax deductions for hairdressing in WA might pull in a few votes for Labor?
The good news: ABCNews24 is running with headliner of Abbott not being a techhead. I would have thought they could have pointed out he is a d!ckhead instead but that is a string to far it seems.
.
Perhaps you could reword this to: –
.
What evidence do you have that the first statement is more likely than the second statement, other than your obvious bias?
Here’s the rub, QLD being the most de-centralised state will react badly to the Coalition’s Broadband policy, as anyone living outside the major capitals would. They’re being screwed as the dumb country cousins by the policy, who don’t need fast internet. Expect to see Mr Rabbit’s numbers drop, and presumably Labor’s rise over the next week.
Geoff, your second sentence in the reworded quote doesn’t make sense. Perhaps you meant “favourable” rather than “unfavourable”?
Steve @6
[According to Mr Christensen a copy of a newsletter, produced when he was a teenager, has been circulated in an attempt to smear his campaign.]
(Please excuse this cross-post from the previous thread.)
It is my considered opinion, (even though there was a good Getup online ad about Tone’s views on women that I think comes from his university days) that things said or written in university or college days should be off-limits for dragging out years later to attack people trying for office. (Particularly if these are from the early uni years.) If there are recent examples that show that views are unchanged, maybe then there MAY be valid to show a pattern, but it’s still shaky.
People go to uni presumably to learn, grow and try out lateral and critical thinking.(yeah, I know, it’s also to get quals to make big bucks, but not everyone does law.) If students have to worry about the use of their words decades later, will this stifle inquiry, examination of new ideas, and development of thinking skills?
I also think a few joints, getting blotto on the pub crawl and joining the Socialist Green Tea Whale Huggers, the Tax Breaks for Caviar Club or signing the Barnaby Joyce Line Dancing Manifesto should not count either. Leaving all that in the closet should be a benefit of graduating, along with not having to suck up to lecturers you completely loathe.
Diog
Here is an interview with Christopher Hitchens about his ineviatble death from cancer.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/10/christopher-hitchens-im-d_n_676681.html
ineviatble = inevitable
Sort of Puff, but if it’s down on paper or in print I think it’s fair game. Sure you can say what ever you want but people should understand that if it’s in public circulation it is fair game.
Oh how I hate young liberals with their lisps.
From The Daily Bludge, Coalition Wasteband policy,
Andrew Robb and Tony Smith announced the much-awaited Coalition wasteband policy today, saying that if electrocuted, Tony’s government would install a more modest wasteband than the massively-overcommitted Labor Broadband.
The Co’s wasteband featured :
· An investment of $8.35 over two years
· A large ball of wet string and two chopped tomato tins washed and dried. Mr Robb added that his government was supporting Australian industry and was eschewing La Gina product and going for the Edgell finely-chopped variety.
· Coalition technology specialists said that the high speed analogue installation was good for no bits per second (unless there was some residual tomato).
· They added that carbon capture guru Tom Switzer was developing a work-around for rural users facing the threat of the string drying out due to drought conditions in the Barcoo.
Under the Co’s plan, two houses were probably going to be linked, provided that they were neighbours. Negotiations were well advanced with residents adjacent to Joe Hockey’s place.
Joe Hockey (the Minister for Waisteband) stressed that this was no Labor white elephant, but was less clear in answering the question “Well what kind of elephant are you, Joe ?”. Shortly after that Mark Latham was ejected from the press conference.
Manne, the Pig’s Arms reporter spotted Julie Bishop with a packet of Gro-plus and a bag of lawn seed on her way to working up the Coalition’s environment policy….. or grassing up Christopher Pyne’s unicorn.
Well one seat in Queensland the LNP won’t be winning is Dawson which has been re-distributed to take in large parts of Southern Townsville. The George Christensen comments are still running strongly here. This is an even more damaging front page because it contains a large photo of George. He looks like he is a chromosome short (sorry if that is politically incorrect down south). http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/08/11/162111_news.html
The quest for Herbert gathering strength every day with Swan in today with a big announcement and the Ruddster tipped by the end of the week. Rudd is still very popular in these parts but then again so is Bob Katter. Mooney has slipped to $2.15 but my crystal ball tells me these odds will shorten dramatically next week.
Itep
Thanks for pointing this out, it should read favourable. Living in Sydney I find it incomprehensible that the Labor 2PP vote in NSW would be anywhere near 50% much less over 50%.
[Good morning and welcome to day 26 of the campaign.
And it brings another poll. The latest Newspoll results in The Australian, show Labor just ahead of the Coalition with 51 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. \
Geezus wept ABC it is not “another poll”. Can they get anything correct? 🙁
sky leading with abbots tech head statement
Questions for the “tech head” Abbott.
1. After the completion of the Liberal and Labor broadband proposals what will be left on the balance sheet?
2. What peak speed will your plan assure AT THE HOME?
[What evidence do you have that the first statement is more likely than the second statement, other than your obvious bias?]
Week 1 ALP 55-45 Coalition
Week 2 ALP 45-55 Coalition
Week 3 ALP 52-48 Coalition
Spot the odd one out.
From the graph it looks like every single state is trending downwards apart from S.A.
Now that Tony has “stitched up” Queensland will he turn his focus to NSW in the last 2 weeks. It looks like NSW may be hosting the grand finale.
BK answer would be arh but arh arh
Geoff, don’t rely on your personal ‘vibes’ about how the electorate is feeling. Most Liberals didn’t feel as if there was a mood for change in 2007 and look what happened. We can’t really be sure exactly which weeks aggregates are accurate at this stage, but you could probably mount a convincing case for either. For instance you could say that since most states have been trending downwards you should assume NSW is probably headed downwards too.
[BK answer would be arh but arh arh]
mickt
I KNEW he’d have an answer!
Last night Kerry asked Abbott how many hundreds or thousands wireless towers will have to be built, Abbott of coarse could not answer and did not answer. Up here in Yamba NSW Optus have been trying to build another wireless tower, for their 3G mobile and wireless internet for 2 years and are still nowhere near having one built, due to protests, as nobody wants one near them.
So how difficult would it be for the Coalition to have their broadband policy put into place anywhere in the future.
did they just combine the two newspolls to come up with this new poll? so basically they are using two week old figures to skew the trend? where if they were to say use three week old figures you would actually see a trend up, rather than down in Qld? how about combining last weeks galaxy, with Sunday’s newspoll, divide it by 2 and stick your head out the window to see which way the wind is blowing? that might be just as helpful given what we have seen re the change of momentum in the last week… if they want to show a trend, how about using more than 2 samples.
Itep – not being smart – but plenty of ALP supporters on this blog say the best way of gauging the feeling within the community and electorate is actually on “street level” talking to friends, relatives and neighbours. I don’t think Geoff would simply make a post based on his “personal vibe” – he is getting his sentiments discussions within his circle.
[Last night Kerry asked Abbott how many hundreds or thousands wireless towers will have to be built, Abbott of coarse could not answer and did not answer. Up here in Yamba NSW Optus have been trying to build another wireless tower, for their 3G mobile and wireless internet for 2 years and are still nowhere near having one built, due to protests, as nobody wants one near them.
So how difficult would it be for the Coalition to have their broadband policy put into place anywhere in the future.
Same as the NIMBY response to nuclear power stations, Muskiemp?
LOL I vote for Mikes method!
[It is my considered opinion, (even though there was a good Getup online ad about Tone’s views on women that I think comes from his university days) that things said or written in university or college days should be off-limits for dragging out years later to attack people trying for office. (Particularly if these are from the early uni years.)]
Abbotts views on the Getup add are all recent, dates of quotes are on screen.
Abortion is an easy””solution 2004, I won’t get my daughters vaccinated against cancer 2006, aboriginies should be picking up rubbish 2009.
The quote about women choosing abortion as a lazy alternative to contraception was when he was health minister and had instituted a ban on RU486, the morning after pill.
The quote about not getting his daughters vaccinated against cervical cancer was when he was health minister. It expressed the view that getting women vaccinated against cervical cancer would lead them to be promiscuous as the vaccine only works before a women has her first sexual encounter.
For Abbott to say this as health minister was particularly abhorrent as it encouraged other mothers not to get their daughters vaccinated and lent credibility to the anti-vaccine fringe cult who are also against vaccinating kids for measles, mumps and other.
Abbotts views are recent.
Getup add below.
https://www.getup.org.au/campaign/Australia_GetsUp_2010&id=1251
From the Executive Summary of the Liberal broadband poicy.
[The Coalition’s plan will deliver a uniform national broadband network, under which 97 percent of premises are able to be served by high speed networks CAPABLE (my emphasis) of delivering from 100 Mbps down to a minimum of 12 Mbps peak speed, using a combination of technologies including HFC, DSL and fixed wireless.]
Right now Telstra promotes ADSL2+ at 20Mbps capability but at the home it gets strangled down to 1.5Mbps.
The questions must be asked of the Liberals about what peak speeds can households and businesses be assured of under their scheme.
I don’t agree with that, based on my experience of uni. In the main, the people making the sort of statements attributed to Christensen still hold those views later on – they just don’t express them so forthrightly. There was one girl I knew who was a ‘staunch’ feminist right up until the time she fell in love and repudiated almost everything she’d said previously. But that’s the only example I can think of. Everyone else was just testing how their beliefs played out in the wider world.
Contrary to what is being put about at the moment, you’ve pretty much formed your view of the world by the time you hit uni. I’m fairly confident you won’t find anything by Christensen in the years directly following those statements to demonstrate that he repudiated them or was sorry he said them. If he did, then I think he has a case to have them left untouched now. It’s a bit late now to suddenly disown them when there’s something at stake.
[Psphesos wrote Libs no doubt have me on their “hostile, no mail” list]
I wouldn’t call you hostile, you’re a pussy cat. Frank, however, I think Frank is on everyones hostile list, Frank scares people. 🙂
I think the NSW result is interesting if it illustrates the reaction to any perception that the NSW State Labor disease had spread to Federal Labor. It may be exaggerated, but it suggests something was going on then. That being said, overall the result we are headed for looks a lot better for Labor than a week ago.
I also found the link between public perception of Labor and house price (non) affordability to be more than coincidental. This is a problem that Labor did not create, but has done nothing to fix, because fixing it will be politicaly difficult i.e. unpopular with some demographics. Still, it has to be done or by the enxt election or housing bubble will start to resemble the US 2006 one.
Of course I don’t want Abbott to be PM, but assuming Labor win this and the Libs put Turnbull back in control, next time will require Labor to actually be a competent and reforming govt. (There is no chance they wil be progressive as long as the right faction are in change.)
For those who live in the seat of Swan, or the same time zone as it:
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-election/minor-parties/the-other-debate-as-sex-vs-greens-go-headtohead-20100809-11twe.html
Sex Party vs Greens candidates debate, Rivervale Hotel (Great Eastern Hwy, near the Farmer Fwy), tonight. Hey, if you’ve got nothing else on… 😉
William This is an interesting and telling graph it demonstrates that the distribution is not seven and that you can not at this stage of the campaign draw a conclusion based on the national swing. You really need to drill down and provide a similar graph for the two main parties for each of the crucial 17 seats. This election will be tight and we may very well see a hung parliament ir an Abbott government ith a slender majority. If this is the case we can expect an early full Senate election to follow in 18 months time.
In 2007 (Melbourne) primary vote:
• The Australian Labor Party in 2007 of 43,363 (49.51%)
• The Greens 19,967 (22.8%)
• The Liberal Party polled 20,577 (23.49%)
After distibution of Preferences the Greens secured 21,996 (25.11%) and the Liberal Party 21,405 (24.44%)
There has been an influx of 3-5000 voters in the City many are expected to increase the Liberal Party vote.
An interesdting story on corrupt former Wooloongong planner Beth Morgan. She still hasn’t been charged two years after the ICAC hearing:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/too-expensive-to-stop-morgan-developments-20100810-11y79.htm
Conversely this promise might help Federal Labor in Sydney; this rail line is desperately neeed, though I don’t know if its priority one.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/gillards-2b-transport-fix-20100810-11y71.html?autostart=1
[but plenty of ALP supporters on this blog say the best way of gauging the feeling within the community and electorate is actually on “street level” talking to friends, relatives and neighbours]
Which is equally as spurious.
Will Tony’s water policy include boats? 😆
Morgan on the ACT senate seat is off the mark, Humphries is safe but the ABC is worried enough to write a fawning article for their Gary.
[Gary Humphries is a moderate, popular local representative. He has always had a sensitive antenna for local issues, a strong contrarian streak and a hairy-chested turn of phrase when it comes to the public service and ACT self-determination.
Voters of all persuasions remember his decision to cross the floor and vote against his colleagues when they vetoed same sex civil union laws in the ACT in 2006.
He is also thoughtful and readily accessible. All of this has earned him widespread respect and allowed him to carve out a secure niche in Canberra’s local political landscape. He’ll be hard to dislodge.
And while the Liberal’s senate primary vote isn’t large in Canberra, it is resilient. It’s never dropped below 30 per cent.]
Hardly popular with a primary vote of 34% and he only “crossed” the floor after getting permission from his party to do so and after the party checked that Steve had them covered for Garys “brave” crossing.
Humphries also is to the right of Abbott with his views on women. As attorney general in the ACT government he passed legislation requiring women to view colour photos of fetuses before having a termination. Only some sort of sick twisted male mind could come up with that idea.
[Living in Sydney I find it incomprehensible that the Labor 2PP vote in NSW would be anywhere near 50% much less over 50%.]
Maybe the campaign is finally clarifying in the minds of NSW voters that federal Labor is NOT state Labor. As that realisation becomes clear then there would be IMO an improvement in the feds vote. Same comment applies to QLD. Voters in both states might be realising that they should vent their spleen at the next state election.
Kudelka nails it again.
ruawake
Will the NBN help Labor in Qld?
[It’s a bit late now to suddenly disown them when there’s something at stake.]
Also describes Abbott to a tee, all fro Work choices until the election is called and now suddenly he is “woman friendly” and Margie is allowed out of the house.
[Will the NBN help Labor in Qld?]
Being the most decentralised state I think so.
ruawake
Are Labor capitalising on this in any way?
well dear william as i am not part of australia, i may as well stay here and help
abbott stay out of your beautiful country o dear
its happened again lol
.
[47 ruawake
Posted Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 8:23 am | Permalink
Will the NBN help]
how much dies the primary vote have to be listed to keep the seat you have in qld