If the campaign pattern to date is anything to go by, the present opinion poll drought should be broken tonight by Morgan, albeit in the form of a fairly small sample phone poll. For something meatier we will presumably have to wait until Nielsen tomorrow evening. Talk from the Labor camp is of “momentum” shifting their way, but confidence is placed no higher than that. Lyndal Curtis on PM says Labor insiders are “beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic”, while Matthew Franklin of The Australian says his sources agree “the result would be close and Queensland remained the key”.
“Sandbagging” has emerged as the buzzword of the late campaign, with Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald finding Labor has targeted “ultra-marginal seats” with $1.56 billion in grants drawn from funding set aside in the federal budget. Yesterday brought the campaign’s biggest item of targeted largesse so far:
Bennelong (Labor 1.4%) and Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Julia Gillard yesterday promised a $2.1 billion contribution to the 14 kilometre rail link between Parramatta and Epping, which currently constitutes a missing link between Sydney’s west and north. However, federal funding will not appear until 2014-15, lest it prevent the budget getting back in surplus in 2012-13. The present state government, which promised the project a decade a go but put it on the back-burner when it announced its transport strategy in February, promises to provide the remaining $520 million upfront, allowing work to start next year with completion scheduled for 2017. However, Barry O’Farrell says a state Coalition government would prefer to prioritise a north-west link from Epping to Rouse Hill and a south-west line from Glenfield to Leppington, which Labor has chosen to overlook. It is perhaps notable that they cover the less electorally interesting terrain of Mitchell and Werriwa. Beyond the more obvious beneficiaries of Bennelong and Parramatta, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes a Parramatta-Epping link would further “alleviate pressure on the city-bound western line which services commuters in other key marginal seats further west such as Lindsay, Greenway and Macquarie”.
Flynn (Labor 2.3%): Flynn has been the target of frenzied efforts from Labor in recent days, the town of Emerald alone (population 19,000) being targeted with a GP super clinic announcement from Nicola Roxon on Tuesday (Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail notes a trend of fortuitous placement for most of the state’s 13 such facilities) and a promise of $6 million to improve local sports facilities from Wayne Swan yesterday. The electorate’s dominant city, Gladstone, was targeted by Swan with $95 million for upgrading Calliope Crossroads on top of $55 million previously promised by both parties, and $50 million for the final stages of the Gladstone Port Access Road.
Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Wayne Swan was in Mackay yesterday promising $120 million to an upgrade of the Peak Downs Highway. The electorate has also been in the news due to an embarrassing student publication which Liberal National Party candidate George Christensen edited in 1998, which has come to light courtesy of (who else?) VexNews. The “official newsletter of the Conservative Students’ Alliance” featured the observation that “women are stupid” (apropos their enthusiasm for Will Smith) and a charming joke about gays and Aids. The publication has generated much discussion about the extent to which one’s “adolescent silliness”, as Tony Abbott would have it, should be visited upon the adult. Labor at least seems confident the electorate won’t be as kind to Christensen as Abbott, with The 7:30 Report offering that Labor was “convinced George Christensen can’t win”.
[Only “shock” polls get released early.]
I wonder why they only call polls that bad for the ALP ‘shock’ polls?
12,000 years ago:
Tony Abbott: “You can only trust the coalition to keep other tribes away to protect our meats and foraged fruits. The Labor party instead want to spend all this tribe’s goods on “agriculture.” While sure it might be nice to have all of our food readily available in one spot and renewable, we just can’t afford it!”
[I wonder why they only call polls that bad for the ALP ’shock’ polls?]
Because the status quo has been Labor in the lead since about 2006.
Was driving in country Victoria today. Caught the ANC News at 10am,3pm and 4pm – heard from Pyne, Tony Smith and Tony ( also a bit of Latham). Not a single balancing story from the other side. I asssume Gillard/Swan/Conroy etc had the day off. Disgraceful.
That’s ABC News.
[I wonder why they only call polls that bad for the ALP ’shock’ polls?]
Because it makes for more interesting news when an OL takes the lead.
Well I guess i just made that $8b thing up. Call me Godwin
Still no $8billion headline or breaking news or news just in online.
Grantplant
[While the ad has been suspended by YouTube, part of search giant Google, the ACTU is continuing to play the ad on its own website.”
And here is the said advt:
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/Home/Campaigns/WorkChoices-Never-Again.aspx
If it has been stopped by complaining Libs than I say ” Get a Life!” to them.]
Rrright. So you would endorse anything for your team to win would you? Even a tasteless ad like this?
Imagine a similar ad of Julia in a bikini, ridiculing her, as a woman with objects flying into her nether regions. Imagine the sheer outrage from feminists objectifying her??
Yet it is OK because a) he is a man and b) because he is not on ‘your team’??
I have come to expect less hypocrisy from the left of centre when it comes to sexual stereotyping and ‘knob jokes’… 🙁
[Well I guess i just made that $8b thing up. Call me Godwin]
Did you invoke Hitler?
Tony Abbott, 12,000 years ago:
‘That round stone thing will never work.’
BTW, I dont think swinging voters will care a toss if the opposition doesnt submit their costings, especially if Robb has an excuse, however lame. What they will notice, however, are major errors in the opposition’s numbers, which suggest incompetance. It is amazing that after the handballing episode when they released their initial cuts, the MSM totally forgave them. God they are being propped up so much.
Dee, I am prepared to sign an affadavit. I saw a press conference. It was on Sky News. The coalition has made a major error in their costings. It leaves them $8b short. I promise
“We’ll stop construction on the wheel! End wasteful spending on the agricultural revolution and keep other tribes from interbreeding with our own!”
Stand up Ugga Tribe! Stand up for real action!
Morgan plays games during election campaigns. Wait for Neilsen – it won’t be tampered with.
The $8 Billion is fleetingly mentioned here in this AAP report:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/election/a/-/article/7751134/abbott-offers-help-for-veterans/
Andrew
Just been to Sky News site & there is nothing there. Are you having a lend of us?
[Three percent is very significant to bookmakers and any punter who doesn’t want to go bankrupt.]
I think it’s fair to say election betting isn’t quite the same as sports/horses. Barring some major stuff up at a national level which happens very rarely the fav. will win. Dr Good has previously posted a link on the blog that showed the very high % of favs that won their seat last time.
However, mathematically I agree that Labor are not value at the moment but earlier in the week they definitely were.
Julia Gillard, 12000 years ago…
“Hey, I need to carve this T-Rex for dinner! Anyone seen my kitchen stone??”
“Yeah, it’s still in Kevin’s back.”
[I dont think swinging voters will care a toss if the opposition doesnt submit their costings, especially if Robb has an excuse, however lame. ]
Which is why Labor must go hard on asking what taxes will Abbott increase to meet his spending announcements. The opposition are perfectly positioned for such an attack.
[Rrright. So you would endorse anything for your team to win would you? Even a tasteless ad like this?
Imagine a similar ad of Julia in a bikini, ridiculing her, as a woman with objects flying into her nether regions. Imagine the sheer outrage from feminists objectifying her??
Yet it is OK because a) he is a man and b) because he is not on ‘your team’??
I have come to expect less hypocrisy from the left of centre when it comes to sexual stereotyping and ‘knob jokes’… ]
Yes, it’s truly breathtaking to watch some of them spin this as harmless fun.
I guess most of them have come to expect gutter politics from the unions.
So what has happened to the $8 billion story then? Either it is a huge hit to the Lbs or conversely to Labor if they got the accusation wrong, yet it appears to be being completely ignored. The Pulse has had time for all sorts of balderdash about flights and luggage but nothing on the $8 billion.
Channel 10’s ads should be: “Paul Bongiorno – cutting through the crap”
Ho, ho!
Speers: “The Coalition might be upset that someone in Treasury is leaking against the Coalition.”
Poor dears.
The Shadow Minister for Google:
[Mick Wilkinson 969]
Very lame – no prizes for last place
sorry if duplicate posts – must be in moderation
OMG! The reporter on 10 news is saying the Rabbott was an ‘absolute’ star. He stood out & shone as the ‘winner’.
Grab the bucket I think I’m gonna vomit.
Comment from the unhinged one today
[“This idea that, hey presto, we are suddenly going to get 10 times the speed from something that isn’t even built yet, I find utterly implausible,” he said.]
He must be getting his implausibility advice from wingman Geo Pell.
[Can’t the Libs use their mole in Treasury to find out the name of the leaker?
Oh, that’s right, their mole was uncovered.
Ryan
Yeah, I find it beyond the pale. Still this lot, bastion of the centre left, find it quite fun to joke about this, take the piss out of anyone religious and call people morons who don’t toe ALP policy-lines.
I regard the left, generally as quite narrow-minded. Everything is fine, as long as you agree with them, otherwise the knives come out. It’s quite bigoted.
Frank, that initial reports refers to Thursday. Today. Swan’s presser was the follow up to that
[OMG! The reporter on 10 news is saying the Rabbott was an ‘absolute’ star. He stood out & shone as the ‘winner’.
Grab the bucket I think I’m gonna vomit.]
What channel 10 are you watching. The one I just saw reported it quite objectivley and interviewed a few confused punters at the end who weren’t swayed either way.
Psst, Mick Wilkinson 969, dinosaurs predated humans by about 60 million odd years 😉
Methinks the Libs have figured out they have lost the election, expect more unhinged behaviour for another week. 🙂
leftwingpinko@983
He must have watyched the Sydney Bulletin which must have had a local version of the sotry as well as the National one.
[Psst, Mick Wilkinson 969, dinosaurs predated humans by about 60 million odd years]
Rubbish, Pebbles!
Senator S Fielding says they co-existed less that 10,000 years ago.
[Tony Abbott, 12,000 years ago:
‘That round stone thing will never work.’]
Tony Abbott 500 yrs ago
‘That printing press device will never work’ I will not waste public funds on such an item. What’s wrong with the quill.
[I regard the left, generally as quite narrow-minded. Everything is fine, as long as you agree with them, otherwise the knives come out. It’s quite bigoted.]
Oh my heart bleeds for you. Don’t you have a boat to turn around or something?
A lot has been said about Gay Marriage this election, predominantly from Greens and the Gay lobby, with prominent members in most forums with pollies seen thus far. Julia has been grilled constantly about it.
What progressives and many journos don’t get is that Australia doesn’t want it. Mainstream Aussies simply don’t or BOTH main parties would be there with rainbows on!
If mainstream aussies knew the inside of dominant gay culture, in particular, they would never vote on this important issue with a ‘yes’.
Just because ‘other countries have moved with the times’ is no indication that we should. Note this argument is curiously avoided when talking about Nuclear Power 😉
[Psst, Mick Wilkinson 969, dinosaurs predated humans by about 60 million odd years]
No. No, that’s not right. Just ask Steve Fielding.
So today we have Abbott saying the internet = email, that you cant predict the speed of the NBN until it is built, Robb refusing to release policies for costings, and the $8b we shall not speak of. Real win for Abbott today I’d say. Dont bother with the octupus Boerwar, I’ve got it.
BTW, Abbott is not stupid. He can perform with a sympathetic audience and dorothy dixers. Why are the MSM suprised he did well at Rooty? Witness the 730 report interviews where he gets proper questioning
I have never followed election betting markets before but these markets have me scratching my head.
Exposed form
Three polls taken last week the median of which is Labor 51-49 which is lineball territory and the betting markets have Labor more than twice as likely to win.So a horse named Gillard met a horse named Abbott last weekend and beat him by a nose and punters believe next time they meet she is more than twice as likely to win – crazy man crazy.
Did they notice Gillard carrying more condition and believe she will strip a lot fitter next time. I hope they are right.
Channel 10 out of Brisbane
My OH just said the guy who was so delighted at the Rabbott being the star is some DJ from Brissie.
[What channel 10 are you watching. The one I just saw reported it quite objectivley and interviewed a few confused punters at the end who weren’t swayed either way.]
[So today we have Abbott saying the internet = email,]
He said that last night. Today he outed himself as a fibre optic denialist.
Imagine, just for a moment, if Rudd in the 2007 campaign had an $8b hole in his costings. How would this have been reported??
[If mainstream aussies knew the inside of dominant gay culture…]
Spoken like someone who has had their nose (and other bits?) stuck in there on a regular basis.
[Tony Abbott 500 yrs ago
‘That printing press device will never work’ I will not waste public funds on such an item. What’s wrong with the quill.]
Tony Abbott 200 years ago
“You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? Excuse me, I have no time to listen to such nonsense.”
LWP
[Oh my heart bleeds for you. Don’t you have a boat to turn around or something?]
Right on cue Lefty! 🙂
Actually, I don’t support offshore processing of IIs/Asylum seekers. Both main parties too (Julia used to HATE this idea, but move with the times hey??? See, that progressive argument is as hollow as it is typical).
The left can only polarise, it the modus operandi. Worker vs Capitalist pigs, Racists vs tolerant people, climate deniers vs planet savers. A crude but largely effective tool.. kind of like a political club.. which reveals the approximate level of sophistication too lefty. 🙂