D-day minus 9

If the campaign pattern to date is anything to go by, the present opinion poll drought should be broken tonight by Morgan, albeit in the form of a fairly small sample phone poll. For something meatier we will presumably have to wait until Nielsen tomorrow evening. Talk from the Labor camp is of “momentum” shifting their way, but confidence is placed no higher than that. Lyndal Curtis on PM says Labor insiders are “beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic”, while Matthew Franklin of The Australian says his sources agree “the result would be close and Queensland remained the key”.

“Sandbagging” has emerged as the buzzword of the late campaign, with Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald finding Labor has targeted “ultra-marginal seats” with $1.56 billion in grants drawn from funding set aside in the federal budget. Yesterday brought the campaign’s biggest item of targeted largesse so far:

Bennelong (Labor 1.4%) and Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Julia Gillard yesterday promised a $2.1 billion contribution to the 14 kilometre rail link between Parramatta and Epping, which currently constitutes a missing link between Sydney’s west and north. However, federal funding will not appear until 2014-15, lest it prevent the budget getting back in surplus in 2012-13. The present state government, which promised the project a decade a go but put it on the back-burner when it announced its transport strategy in February, promises to provide the remaining $520 million upfront, allowing work to start next year with completion scheduled for 2017. However, Barry O’Farrell says a state Coalition government would prefer to prioritise a north-west link from Epping to Rouse Hill and a south-west line from Glenfield to Leppington, which Labor has chosen to overlook. It is perhaps notable that they cover the less electorally interesting terrain of Mitchell and Werriwa. Beyond the more obvious beneficiaries of Bennelong and Parramatta, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes a Parramatta-Epping link would further “alleviate pressure on the city-bound western line which services commuters in other key marginal seats further west such as Lindsay, Greenway and Macquarie”.

Flynn (Labor 2.3%): Flynn has been the target of frenzied efforts from Labor in recent days, the town of Emerald alone (population 19,000) being targeted with a GP super clinic announcement from Nicola Roxon on Tuesday (Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail notes a trend of fortuitous placement for most of the state’s 13 such facilities) and a promise of $6 million to improve local sports facilities from Wayne Swan yesterday. The electorate’s dominant city, Gladstone, was targeted by Swan with $95 million for upgrading Calliope Crossroads on top of $55 million previously promised by both parties, and $50 million for the final stages of the Gladstone Port Access Road.

Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Wayne Swan was in Mackay yesterday promising $120 million to an upgrade of the Peak Downs Highway. The electorate has also been in the news due to an embarrassing student publication which Liberal National Party candidate George Christensen edited in 1998, which has come to light courtesy of (who else?) VexNews. The “official newsletter of the Conservative Students’ Alliance” featured the observation that “women are stupid” (apropos their enthusiasm for Will Smith) and a charming joke about gays and Aids. The publication has generated much discussion about the extent to which one’s “adolescent silliness”, as Tony Abbott would have it, should be visited upon the adult. Labor at least seems confident the electorate won’t be as kind to Christensen as Abbott, with The 7:30 Report offering that Labor was “convinced George Christensen can’t win”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “D-day minus 9”

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  1. Grantplant

    [While the ad has been suspended by YouTube, part of search giant Google, the ACTU is continuing to play the ad on its own website.”]

    In reality, Julia is the one with the hairy back.

  2. [Actually, I don’t support offshore processing of IIs/Asylum seekers. Both main parties too ]

    That is: Actually, I don’t support offshore processing of IIs/Asylum seekers. Both main parties DO.

    SRY.

  4. [Rubbish, Pebbles!
    Senator S Fielding says they co-existed less that 10,000 years ago.]

    Forgive me father, I have sinned!

    I got a bit Gillardish there!

  5. [Channel 10 out of Brisbane
    My OH just said the guy who was so delighted at the Rabbott being the star is some DJ from Brissie.]

    Well there you go. The Sydney report was nothing like that.

  6. Mick Wilkinson@1000

    LWP

    Oh my heart bleeds for you. Don’t you have a boat to turn around or something?

    Right on cue Lefty!

    Actually, I don’t support offshore processing of IIs/Asylum seekers. Both main parties too (Julia used to HATE this idea, but move with the times hey??? See, that progressive argument is as hollow as it is typical).

    The left can only polarise, it the modus operandi. Worker vs Capitalist pigs, Racists vs tolerant people, climate deniers vs planet savers. A crude but largely effective tool.. kind of like a political club.. which reveals the approximate level of sophistication too lefty.

    Trying for a Red Faces Gig are we ?? Your verdict from the PB’s is:

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0tiFIV9Pmg 

  7. The only reason I can think of to watch Channel 9’s coverage of the election is to watch Michael Kroger come to terms with defeat.

    Stick to the ABC! You need a reason: Antony Green! Nuff said!

  8. Pebbles
    [Psst, Mick Wilkinson 969, dinosaurs predated humans by about 60 million odd years]

    Yeah babe, keep telling yourself that, hey? 😉

  9. [Click on “Download our Action Contract”]

    “404 – File or directory not found”

    Love it – I guess the Liberal Party are no techheads

  10. Gay marriage is an issue I support, if two people want to get married fine by me. But the way to ensure it happens is to get support for a referendum to define marriage in the constitution.

    To depend on politicians to pass legislation is dangerous, it may set things back decades.

    So I would say to my gay friends get the community onside, the vast majority want to help – remove it from the political sphere and you wil win.

  11. [That is: Actually, I don’t support offshore processing of IIs/Asylum seekers. Both main parties DO.

    SRY.]

    Yeah, except one of the major parties treats it as the central (only) plank in their policy manifesto.

    boats boats boats boats boats boats boats.

  12. Itep 949 – I’ve been following the Betfair market and political polling since the last election and there seems to be a clear correlation between price and poll result so we’ll see how close I am.

  13. I disagree Mick Wilkinson,

    The problem with the Left is they are too open minded, they would be more successful if they were more narrow minded. They have this annoying thing called “principle” which means they are constantly let down by Labor (and the Greens too if they were in power). If the Left banded together as the Right do, in equal one-eyedness, they would be unstoppable.

  15. LWP

    [Yeah, except one of the major parties treats it as the central (only) plank in their policy manifesto.

    boats boats boats boats boats boats boats.]

    What an audacious cop out. Gillard railed against every single part of the policy she now endorses. It is a complete backflip to the marginals and you won’t admit it.

    There are none so blind as those who will not see. Are you telling me you support the ALP policy???????

  16. Completely off topic but I just found out the name of my next door neighbour’s dog that they’ve had for about six months is… Pebbles! Ha!

  19. The problem with the left is that their ideas require a slightly higher IQ than the lowest common denominator possesses.

    Fortunately for the lowest common denominator Abbott has dummed it down to stop boats, end waste and whatever his other vacuous platitude is.

  20. [If mainstream aussies knew the inside of dominant gay culture, in particular, they would never vote on this important issue with a ‘yes’.]

    And you are some sort of expert on this? Care to tell us about it?

  21. “But the way to ensure it happens is to get support for a referendum to define marriage in the constitution.”

    and it would not even pass one State It wont happen either by Ref or via HoR

  22. [It’s definitely good to hear some perspective on the markets thought. They’ve never made sense to me]

    They’re Greek to me. All I know is the smaller our figure and the larger theirs, the better we’re rated in the yes of the gambling community.

    Truth be told I have never paid much attention to them prior to coming here.

  25. The betting market has swung heavily to Labor in the last few days, with zero polls being released. So they cannot be following polls this week.

  30. [Turnballs is the treasury leak.]

    Wouldn’t surprise me. He has been very non-chalant this campaign.

    He wants his party back.

  32. Au
    [The problem with the Left is they are too open minded, they would be more successful if they were more narrow minded. They have this annoying thing called “principle” which means they are constantly let down by Labor (and the Greens too if they were in power). If the Left banded together as the Right do, in equal one-eyedness, they would be unstoppable.]

    There is no way the left may be viewed as “too open minded”. As stated, they rail against the mainstream view that marriage ought to be between a man and a woman, calling opponents Homophobes (oh, what reparte!). They do not believe in freedom of speech if it offends their ‘principles’. Any ‘principles’ a socially conservative person might have is ridiculed as ‘prudish’, ‘Victorian’, ‘puritanical’. This is vilification, not open-mindedness.

    The left is not ‘open’ to saving the planet through Nuclear Power, not ‘open’ to solving Climate Change issues with ANY other mechanism other than a price on Carbon, not open to Government-sponsored choice in education (despite ample evidence they spend their money a damn sight better than the glorious halls of humanism in our state schools.

    In no way, shape or form may the right OR the left be described as ‘open minded’. Both are narrow-minded, ‘principled’ bigots.

  36. Pebbles.

    Oops, sorry. I did mention once that the only constellations (I know Venus isn’t a constellation, btw 🙂 I recognized were Orion and the Southern Cross. Wouldn’t know the Big Dipper it it fell from the sky and hit me.

    Venus is the really bright planet you can often see near a crescent moon, or am I wrong again?

  39. [Wouldn’t surprise me. He has been very non-chalant this campaign.

    He wants his party back.]
    He’s the only one in the party capable of counting all his digits.

  40. Seven News:
    – Latham a dick
    – Gillard a shocker at Rooty Hill; Abbott a man of the people
    – hung parliament blahblahblah

    then security upgrade to electronic keys at Sydney Hotels

    Nothing on Morgan

    Now I know why I dont watch Channel 7 news!

  43. [Venus is the really bright planet you can often see near a crescent moon, or am I wrong again?]

    It’s a really bright star you see in the west of the sky (the side the sun sets in) just after sunset. As long as you have a clear view of that side of the sky, you can’t miss it (it’s quite bright)

  46. William – this is actually a bit bizarre. Every Morgan poll so far for weeks has been leaked on Wednesday afternoon. Is this because the one coming – presumably tomorrow now? – itsn’t a “shock poll omgz game changer bombshell”?

  48. Yes BK, I got my hole report. Lets count how many of the TV news run with it. My prediction? Zero

    Interesting though that that tool riley is talking hung rather than tone win. Has he seen the missing Morgan??

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