The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.
The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.
Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.
As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.
I’d have been amazed if a News Ltd sponsored event stacked with Young Liberals didn’t vote Abbott as the supposed winner. 🙂
Guys I feel pretty sick about what happened tonight as well. It was the most atrocious thing I have seen in this election to date.
However, it was only broadcasted on pay television. Yes, the papers and electronic media will give their biased views but people who did not see the event aren’t going to be too concerned.
Julia did not make any gaffes and she has basically had a good week. Her performance last night on the 7pm show and QandA will leave much more of a positive viewpoint on people. Similarly, Abbot’s performance on 730 report will be a headache for him until polling day (about the NBN).
Bottom line, yes it ruins Julia’s great week but the 71-59 with 70 undecided is not a disaster by any means. She just needs to keep plugging along with the policy. Tonight was not a gamechanger and I think you will hear a lot more about the ‘stacking of libs’ issue tomorrow as well.
Just avoid News Ltd, the ABC, and commercial talkback radio – you’ll be fine!
I’m very glad that I don’t subscribe to pay tv, especially “Channel Liberal”.
be positive $450,000 bet on labor in the last 2 days.
A lot of people are upset about what happened tonight and the likelihood of positive Abbott news stories at a completely staged event, but don’t worry. Next week he’ll be hurt by both qanda which has a much bigger audience and Kerry O’Brien on the 7.30 report.
I doubt it will effect things much. Plus, a lot of people pay attention to twitter and other social media than you’d think.
[Bottom line, yes it ruins Julia’s great week but the 71-59 with 70 undecided is not a disaster by any means. She just needs to keep plugging along with the policy. Tonight was not a gamechanger and I think you will hear a lot more about the ’stacking of libs’ issue tomorrow as well.]
For a short campaign it seems like it has dragged on forever. But on the score point I consider that pretty good.
Good night!
[It’s stuff like this that ensures I won’t engage with you.
You’re stark raving mad.]
No Ryan, if you want stark raving you have to go to Akermans blog. I did last night, just for a look. Bad move. Some of the comments are chilling. Sp much so that i think the posters better hope that the AFP protective services guys dont read that blog or they would be looking them up as persons of interest.
[Bottom line, yes it ruins Julia’s great week]
No way. This doesn’t rate. It’s nothing more than a pimple on the back of a pig.
In the Know.
Why does it ruin Julia’s week. If she fronted up and answered questions to a hostile audience, and then Abbott gets a good run. Isn’t obvious to all what had transpired, and should it matter anyway.
This thing will mean nothing. Swinging voters don’t really follow politics much so they wouldn’t have been huddled over their computer watching it on the telegraph page…
[Ryan… every contribution expands your capacity to make a fool of yourself…]
Hey David, just like his beloved leader 😛
I actually managed to get a couple of comments on to the Terragraph blog during Abbotts performance. He was speaking in slogan after all.
After i did one about his ears that was it, no more. Which is a bit dissapointing as after the comments on Julias earlobes during the “debate” i thought it was fair enough??
[Next week he’ll be hurt by both qanda which has a much bigger audience ]
The ABC had better make sure that audience is vetted to ensure there’s some sign of balance and objectivity.
Turnbullshit yelling at Mckew on Lateline – not a good look silver-spoon!
And even if swinging voters were watching, what makes you think Julias performance was so bad anyway?
just checked thru twitter
over 2 thousand retweets re the Rigged thingy at rooty
87 tweeps twittered
Not good Tone
🙁
I doubt Julia will give this a 2nd thought – let Abbott and his media cheer squad make fools of themselves.
Don’t forget too that Andrew Robb made a complete dick of himself earlier today with all this leak nonsense. 😀
Tom Hawkins@1812
I’m surprisied GP wasn’t at the Rooty Hill gig. 🙂
[Abbott will get a massive run with this]
How-why the viewing audience will be minimal. 130 people were not convinced of Abbott – hardly decisive and he faced dorothy dixers all night. In the snippets I caught he was fumbling and further displayed the fact he has not a tech head
Frank
the dishwasher called
🙁
[I’m surprisied GP wasn’t at the Rooty Hill gig.]
I thought he was the bouncer on the door making sure the Lib stooges were let through. 😉
Victoria
What I mean by that was that she was on a roll this week and commentators, like Phil Coorey, were saying that things were starting to turn for Julia. This will put the public discourse back on how well Abbott is doing and will stifle her momentum. This is the tragic part of this for me: was this Rooty Hill thing really necessary for Julia. As the PM she was always going to get the harder deal on the night, notwithstanding the stacking of the audience.
[The woman also quoted the Rhodes Scholar aims back at him.]
Didn’t this woman mention one of the tenets as being truthful. Oh and I laughed at that and I was hoping someone else would ask the question about his lies and gospel truths.
No matter what the journos have said about Julia getting ‘the treatment’ the big message tomorrow all over shockjock radio will be that Tone wiped the floor with her and the journos will write it up that way.
This reminds me of Saturday when Latham ambushed Julia. All doom and gloom for Labor. Just the opposite occurred.
Tonight everyone is upset that the forum was rigged etc. From my perspective what is negative about this from Julia’s perspective. It should reflect more poorly on Abbott. It shows that he is weak not fronting a pressured situation.
I spend a fair bit of time working in Western Sydney and I guarantee the swinging voters out there will be entirely disinterested in what took place at The Rooty Hill RSL tonight.
I’ll tell you another thing – they don’t necessarily vote for whom Murdoch tells them to either.
Maxine on Lateline: “frankly I know more about what Tony knows about boats than about broadband or health”
Classic
Ahh Airhead journo:
What Rudd has been doing today?
Winning the seat of Herbert for the ALP 🙂
Touring Townsville Hospital, and visiting Palm Island.
drake, how so?
Action man Rabbit ran away from a debate with Julia. Then he has to have a Lib stacked group to help him through his Town-hall Q & A. What does it say about him and his backers that he has to be assisted in this way to get a perceived yet hollow victory. What a hollow shell of a man. They surely have little confidence in Rabbit for them to pull such an obvious stroke. They have no shame!
[It was the most atrocious thing I have seen in this election to date]
in the know – that’s a very big call. I would have thought that the leaks were a much bigger threat and almost derailed the whole campaign for Labor. let’s keep a bit of perspective here. .
[No matter what the journos have said about Julia getting ‘the treatment’ the big message tomorrow all over shockjock radio will be that Tone wiped the floor with her and the journos will write it up that way]
but do these people only have an audience of libs anyway
we dont have any shock joks here when laws left they did not tune in to any others.
Victoria
Agree – I still think that we have not heard the end of the ‘bias’ issue either. I wonder, though, how many media commentators will acknowledge that she got the hardest questions.
[What Rudd has been doing today?
Winning the seat of Herbert for the ALP
Touring Townsville Hospital, and visiting Palm Island]
even – how confident are you that Labor will win in Herbert?
Just an aside. The PM should never go second. The PM should always be top of the bill. Abbott’s performance on QandA will depend heavily on how often Tony Jones allows him to get away with the stop the boats, stop the waste bullshit instead of answering questions.
Re the Sky News “town hall meeting”, could we please stop caring so hard that there is no perspective PBer’s?
This wasn’t a public “debate”, it was a Sky news presentation. Gillard has to do them, just like Abbott has to go on the 7:30 report.
Yes, the various interests will read the entrails as they see fit, but Australian’s really aren’t that stupid. I don’t have pay TV and thought it was all a bit too exclusive to provide a genuine democratic comparison of the hopefuls, but unless you think Gillard genuinely stumbled, then what is the problem?
Darn
I wasn’t saying that this was damaging like the leaks issue. I just thought, in terms of media bias, the whole imbalance of the questions etc and the follow up analysis by Speers and co was just atrocious.
billy
spot on! my sentiments exactly. If he was so good and so impressive, why did he not stand on the stage with her and get asked the same questions which they could debate on.
He is piss weak in every sense of the word. Hell, he can’t even handle the pressure of being questioned by Kerry O’Brien and he falls in a heap. Gillard is more tough in one small finger than his whole entire body, not forgetting this enormous friggin ears!!
and the Libs think they got the better of Gillard. FFS!!
I didn’t get to see most of Julia in that meeting
Did she get given an opportunity to explain that the majority of the debt and deficit was brought on by the drop in revenue and that the Libs would have been saddled with the same deficit only a much weaker stimulus.
?
[even – how confident are you that Labor will win in Herbert?]
I don’t know if they will win Herbert, but Rudd’s visit would have helped Tony Mooney, surely?
my hubbie had not seen abbott adds till tonight and when he finished we will stop the boats etc.
we both said together but what are you going to do for the country
bugger all my oh said
so lets hope that how a lot of people see his adds all slogans
I’m coming late to this discussion!
Is there real proof that the audience was stacked with Liberals – ie. more than 50% of the audience?
If so, Galaxy and or The Daily Telegraph have some questions to answer.
One thing it does establish though, is that the easy going, magnaminous way in which the Rudd Labor Government has treated the media is poison for their own cause.
The next term of Government should lead to the creation of anti monopoly laws, separation of media ownership, removal of Liberal appointees from media boards, and an insistence on Australians owning Australian media.
The alternative will be Fox News permanently running this country through their local agents, Liberals Inc..
Nup. It’s a non event. If it were a debate maybe. But Gillard did nothing wrong so there’s not much news here.
Gillard’s joke about Latham on QANDA got a big run – there was nothing like that tonight. And 40-50k watch sky news. 850k watched QandA.
We really need to not overestimate how engaged people are. My wife didn’t even know about the rooty hill thing until I told her. My Dad who doesn’t have fox had no idea – and he’s following the election pretty closely.
The focus of this election has well and truly turned onto policy. The unemployment figures are out tomorrow….
LTEP
[How will it help him gain moment, middle man? Do you really think swinging voters will care if 200 random people in Rooty Hill preferred Tony Abbott?]
Yes. It just might. It has a much smaller audience than the Q&A in Adelaide, where Julia did very well. However, News providers will air Julia’s weakest moments in it and Tony’s strengths. He had the debater’s advantage of ‘last on the floor’, always the best spot, and stacked or not it will count.
Just postal voted. Much easier than having to queue up on voting day.
CC,
NSW Labor held on last time despite a long and concerted Murdoch campaign. Abbott’s a North Shore guy, Rupert’s a rich prick – the folk out west know these things.
Thanks Grog for putting things into perspective.
[Yes, the various interests will read the entrails as they see fit, but Australian’s really aren’t that stupid. I don’t have pay TV and thought it was all a bit too exclusive to provide a genuine democratic comparison of the hopefuls, but unless you think Gillard genuinely stumbled, then what is the problem?]
actualy could be a plus.