Newspoll breaks it down

The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.

The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.

Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.

fed2010-statebystatepolling

As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “Newspoll breaks it down”

Comments Page 36 of 41
1 … 35 36 37 … 41

  3. The forum was a pointless exercise. Stupid concept if they are not going to do it in a legitimate way.

    The set of questions faced by Gillard and Abbott were uneven. It was pretty obvious to us that there were a number of Young Liberal stooges in the ‘undecided’ audience (Forgot the MP’s son, what about the young Lib lady in red who asked the inane broadband question). That was clear when Abbott walked into the room to cheering and whistles.

    Even the Sky commentators mentioned it and then preceeded to ‘blame’ Galaxy.

  11. [now i think about it… Abbott cheered in Rooty Hill… could actually play into Gillards hands. I wouldn’t call Rooty Hill ‘middle’ Australia.]

    I just can’t see it making much of a difference at all. The voters out West who matter wouldn’t have watched it and won’t care what was said.

  12. [The forum was a pointless exercise. Stupid concept if they are not going to do it in a legitimate way.]
    It achieved its purpose for the Murdoch empire.

  15. [Abbott will get a massive run with this]

    glory – I think you’ll find we’re into policy now. He’s still going to be getting difficult questions on the economy , NBN etc. All things he does not handle very well.

    The press cannot spend the rest of the week gushing about how he went at Rooty Hill. it will be reported and then we move on.

  21. cupid its not the viewers i’m thinking of, but the second hand reporting on front pages tomorrow. its a news ltd sponsored event, and they have the biggest selling papers in the country.

  22. Actually, I wasn’t thinking of Bluey, Boerwar.

    Apropos nothing in particular, did I ever mention I make an exceptionally tasty marinated octopus salad?

    I have a mate connected to the crayfishing industry, and he brings me down 10 or 20 kilograms at a time, several times a year. They’ve all been fed on prime WA rock lobster.

    The boys at the rugby club go mad for it.

  23. another report today on abc newsradio that a bet was taken on sportingbet in darwin backing labor to the tune of $200,000, also on centrebet labor shortened to $1.38 coalition out to $3.00.

  27. I am now quite satisfied, after seeing and hearing Abbott tonight and his pathetic press conference this morning in Adelaide, when once again when the questions got too hot to handle he just turned and walked away, the more the media show footage of this fool, the more the average Aussie will turn off this clown.
    It is now completely obvious Abbott is a tool, a weird person, not 100% in control, ignorant in too many important aspects required of a leader, economics being the first attribute, money is what influences all else. I do not believe the majority of electors in this fair land are so stupid as to not see through this unfortunate would be.
    I have stopped worrying about the result, Australians are just not that stupid.
    I have ordered the champers…

  28. Has anyone heard what happened to the other 70 ‘undecided’ voters?
    What happened to them?

    It was probably optional to cast it, so some would have just walked out

  34. [Ryan you have had ample time to stir your blue blood into action and reply to my question, that you are avoiding it, lowers your credibility rating even further. Just admit you know Abbott will bring back workchoices and an end to it. It is so damn obvious the Libs will.. given the chance and you know it, and agree with it… pathetic. Are you so thick you expect the workers of this country to actually believe Abbott. That is, workers as in union and non union. It will still be one of the stark choices come the 21st, believe me. Watch for the last week, I hear there is something of a worker ad campaign looming….not that I know anything]

    It’s stuff like this that ensures I won’t engage with you.

    You’re stark raving mad.

  45. [Dee
    I was engaged to a Corryong lass once.
    we used to catch some nice trout.]
    I was the hated fisherwoman. The tinarse who caught all the trout. It was said that trout were territorial & you would not get more than one in a short stretch of river. I managed lucky 13 ‘good’ size trout. A good mix of brown & rainbows.

  47. Ryan, you have the Abbott disease, too hard so ignore it…done it again Ryan, looking stupid, but it suits you…every contribution expands your capacity to make a fool of yourself…
    any chance you will answer the workchoices question I asked?..or will you just use the Liberal response…umm, arr, well, mmm will announce at a later date 🙂

  50. Ryan, how’s the splitting of the Tory vote in Ryan going? Have you driven any wedges into the Michael Johnston camp yet or are you saving that for the last week of the campaign.

    Funny that your influence over the rather silly Tory candidate for Dawson appears to be nil – I thought you might have phoned him and got his resignation by now. You seem to be having a tough campaign – not up to your usual standards.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 36 of 41
1 … 35 36 37 … 41