The Australian has published another set of geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining two weeks of polling (the 52-48 from yesterday and last week’s 50-50) to produce samples of about 670 per state. The results thus include half the polling which contributed to Newspoll’s geographic and demographic results from last week.
The table below provides an artist’s impression of how state-level polling has tracked through the campaign week-by-week, based on an aggregage of Newspoll and Nielsen results. The results appear to suggest that the swing to Labor has faded in Victoria and that Western Australia is weaker for Labor than generally supposed, but the margins of error is high enough that this should be treated with caution. Samples for any given observation were 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 in South Australia’s case to 3.6 for New South Wales.
Perhaps the greatest point of interest is an implausible Labor collapse in New South Wales in week two. Most likely what this tells us is that unfavourable samples for Labor there dragged down their overall results that week.
As well as that, Roy Morgan has produced one of its quite useless Senate polls. This draws on 5000 face-to-face interviews conducted over the last two months, but for all its massive sample is of far less use in predicting the Senate result that an ordinary lower house poll would be. Of greater interest is Morgan’s Polligraph worm results for the treasurers’ debate. Amusingly, the pattern for Labor-supporting and Coalition-supporting participants forms a perfect mirror image. The Greens line is consistently quite close to Labor’s, but a gap emerges when Wayne Swan spruiks “Labor initiatives to assist housing affordability”.
[Thanks Grog for putting things into perspective]
how far back is grog victoria.
did any one say any thing about 7.30 to night.
any one watching late line who else was on.
[Just an aside. The PM should never go second. The PM should always be top of the bill. Abbott’s performance on QandA will depend heavily on how often Tony Jones allows him to get away with the stop the boats, stop the waste bullshit instead of answering questions]
To be fair I think Jones has a good track record in requiring all guests to address the questions asked. I see no reason to think that won’t continue.
Grog is at post no. 1844
[any one watching late line who else was on.]
It didn’t even get a run on lateline.
Hmm:
[Yes. It just might. It has a much smaller audience than the Q&A in Adelaide, where Julia did very well. However, News providers will air Julia’s weakest moments in it and Tony’s strengths. He had the debater’s advantage of ‘last on the floor’, always the best spot, and stacked or not it will count.]
Sorry but this is BS.
[Action man Rabbit ran away from a debate with Julia. Then he has to have a Lib stacked group to help him through his Town-hall Q & A. What does ]
not much of an action man in the surf it would seem why is that?
George the most interesting aspect of Ryan’s blind loyalty to the Monk who is Mad is, he is not willing to admit he Ryan, is also a protege of the Jesuits. The same Jesuits who convinced the Monk who is Mad not to take Holy Orders and sent him whirling out of the seminary into the big wide world into all that he now finds distasteful.
Gays, abortion, pre nuptial carrying on, (TONY!!!! not you surely) condoms, safe sex, unmarried mothers, stem cell research and no male touching, it’s not natural….enough reasons there to bar Abbott from being the leader of a democratic society. BUT the likes of Ryan find that in a leader, acceptable.
Ryan it is 2010, not the fairy tale world of adam and eve, that the likes of Abbotts confessor Pell still allows to be taught to young catholic kids who know no better.
Nah – there was bugger all “great visuals” for TV news. At best the news will show one question each. They have far too small a window to bother with last night’s events.
Boer
Yes, I think it actually was very tactical on Tony’s part. If he made a fool of himself, it wasn’t directly to millions, yet if he did well, the message would get out to the media. More importantly, and I think most PBs have missed this, you have an audience of 200, more than half of whom will be telling every Tom Dick and Harry in these marginal seats how good Tony looked and what a dill Julia did.
The train link is too, for those electorates, the very worst policy you could announce if you wanted to shore up trust in people who didn’t vote for you. Does anyone really think that Kennealy’s Labor government will be there in NSW in 2014 to see this through??? I think they probably saw straight through this the moment it left her lips. Kennealy is standing right there, if they couldn’t see the cynical irony in the idea.
Western Sydney will beat Labor to a red pulp with that policy on August 21st.
Now if THAT was a book, I’d front up some dough.
The problem with many of the Labor voters on this blog is the constant complaining and carping about media bias and events like the leaders Q&A at the Rooty Hill RSL earlier tonight. Insted of wasting your engergy agonising about injustices done (whether real or imagined) get out and spread the word, defend Labors position. If you feel so strongly about your party that many of you claim so much loyalty to how about getting “out there” educating the electorate about it’s policies. Crying about how hard the world is on Poll Bludger (80% of which are probably rusted on Labories) isn’t going to change a damn thing.
david
I thought you were talking about the seat of Ryan
😉
Yep.
Fine, Julia.
Honestly guys, when I saw the footage of Latham I literally laughed out loud. It was brilliant. Then I came here to read you all agonising about it.
Seriously, people aren’t going to buy someone being taken into a room, interviewed, and then having their unflattering comments selectively aired by others. Unless the meeting produced a genuine gaffe, with footage, then it is hardly worth all the fuss about media bias. Everyone knows sky is the TV version of the Australian.
[Turnbullshit yelling at Mckew on Lateline – not a good look silver-spoon]
Agree with that George. It was another bit of bullying against a woman I thought and would not go down very well with the female voter – particularly has she had just listened patiently to his long diatribe..
Micks, how do you know we don’t?
What do you do?
I’m missing Glen already, he’s one conservative with some intelligence – unlike the 3 other tools we’ve got on this board tonight.
Ryan and the two Micks – was Andrew Bolt’s blog getting too crowded for you? 😆
You rusted on labor labor types are full of it. This is an election campaign, the term your tooting for is not always on to get it all his or her way. It’s how they deal with the hard bits that swings the swinging voters. JG does all right.
Be nice if someone was allowed to ask the Rabbott about the Rooty Hill Young Liberal(s) on Q&A next week…
Did you know about it?
Do you know about it now?
Do you remember “Joel”?
Do you think the event was tarnished by it?
David,
On the subject of Pell, it was interesting to read in the Herald today that he is in breach of ATO regulations by engaging in partisan political debate whilst representing a non-taxed entity.
He should be called to account.
except the exit poll was 71 TA, 59 Julia so 54% will say that and 46% won’t. Hardly game changing.
C’mon guys it’s a sky news program.
90% of people wouldn’t even be able to remember the debate – or care about it. How many poeple do you think will care about something that wasn’t a debate that they didn’t
even see??
Really, you’re going to read in The Daily Tel that Abbott performed well in a non-debate event at Rooty Hill, and so you say “hmmm I guess I’ll vote for him then”.
Please.
Abbott’s qanda performance will be more important – and he’ll prob do well – the audiences are never all that angry. But even that will do little to change any votes.
What will be interesting to see will be th erating – Julia got 850k. If Abbott gets less that is not a good sign, especailly as it is in the last week so more poeple will be engaged than now, and also if they are looking to change govt they’ll want to have a look at him.
Jules was very soild and if you people think Jules was put under the pump, I suspect she felt as those she was back in Werribee for the demographics of Rotty Hill and Werribee are similar.
Jules will win this
Gary
[Sorry but this is BS.]
No that was. 😛
The room was buzzing with prospects of Julia gaining so much mileage out of this event this afternoon. Now, nah, won’t even rate, small bickkies!!
Cognitive Dissonance again, changing behaviour to justify beliefs.
No, mate you are speaking through your cable-laying apparatus, every punch in this election counts. Julia won the week Tony won this, dead simple.
Tobe
I agree. When Latham monstered Julia. I knew it would reflect poorly on him. This event tonight does not reflect poorly on Julia either. As she has said herself, she is made of stern stuff. In order to be PM, you have to have grace under pressure. She does. We know what the Rabbott does under pressure, he crumbles each and every time.
So those 100 people know every Tom, Dick and Harry in the Western Suburbs? That’s what I call a representative audience.
David @ 1857
[Gays, abortion, pre nuptial carrying on . . . condoms, safe sex, unmarried mothers, stem cell research and no male touching]
Julia’s only one poll away from coming out against all those things. In the space of a few weeks the old Trotskyite has signed up to every conservative cause other than the death penalty.
Well whoever was saying that was BS.
Mick S
[Crying about how hard the world is on Poll Bludger (80% of which are probably rusted on Labories) isn’t going to change a damn thing.]
Hear, hear. It also doesn’t pass in the slightest for informed commentary.
Unlike you rusted on Green types, eh Fred? Anyone mention Bob Brown in any derogatory manner, and listen to yourself squeal.
mick, a question a simple one, so as not to test you…”Yes, I think it actually was very tactical on Tony’s part. If he made a fool of himself, it wasn’t directly to millions, yet if he did well, the message would get out to the media…”
Your words, not mine…. So you are implying the media would only report Abbott if he did well and lets not worry if he made an arse of himself because noone was watching?The media would not report it.
So you are telling me the media is biased. Really? I would never have known…You pathetic fool…this is why you Libs are so transparent….like the absurd insuation of Robb today there is a leak from the treasurer, get out of here.
Tonight’s event smelt to me like a set up for Abbott, because it was being organised by News Ltd and a polling company sympathetic to the conservatives.
Thus, I’m really not surprised that the audience was stacked with Liberals and Phoney got the softer questions, nor that the usual journalistic hacks are gushing about Tone’s supposed “knock it out of the park” performance. 😉
[Gary
Sorry but this is BS.
No that was.
The room was buzzing with prospects of Julia gaining so much mileage out of this event this afternoon. Now, nah, won’t even rate, small bickkies!!
Cognitive Dissonance again, changing behaviour to justify beliefs.
No, mate you are speaking through your cable-laying apparatus, every punch in this election counts. Julia won the week Tony won this, dead simple]
At the end of the day Mick it’s all about who wins on the 21st and Jules is nicely placed now to do just that..
David
Libs = hypocrites of the first order.
They are so obvious and so transparent. Hollow, with no moral fibre.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201008/r617206_4119028.asx
Take note of Dr Martin Drum at the end 🙂
Alas I remember him as a humble staffer for ther Member for Swan Hills 🙂
And the Libs have obviously sent a few of their foot soldiers over here tonight. 😉
Even Glen can see through Abbott, and he’s no Labor supporter.
well well well
Rabbott is going to have another brushfire to put out
6 and counting
😉
Grog
[90% of people wouldn’t even be able to remember the debate – or care about it. How many poeple do you think will care about something that wasn’t a debate that they didn’t
even see??]
Keep telling yourself that, mate. These are marginal seats, the punters have an axe to grind and if you had ever been in a ‘Town Hall meeting’ like ones in QLD on the Damming the Mary River, every one counts. People tell their war stories to everyone who’ll listen.
More than a third have not decided in that audience. They hate both sides but they will read about toxic NSW Labor (that no one in here even defends…) in the papers every day for the next 10 days and you really think ‘moving forward’ and 46 Billion dollar Broadband will really tip them with another recession on the cards for the rest of the world??? If the jobs aren’t there, it doesn’t matter how fast you look for them…
[At the end of the day Mick it’s all about who wins on the 21st and Jules is nicely placed now to do just that..]
Exactly. Whose shoes would you rather be in at the moment? The one landing $200,000 wagers, that’s who.
Off to bed, good night all!
And Frank, my amigo from the West – give em hell! 😀
[QLD on the Damming the Mary River]
glad it wasnt damning princess mary
Thanks Victoria.
I didn’t see the “debate” because I don’t have pay TV, but the deal is that Julia has to do them… even if it’s all unfair and whatever. But let’s not waste too much time being so small that all we do is complain about the ref. Julia is ahead and most people think she will win. Suck it in and get positive PBer’s…
The biggest danger for Labor out of Booty Hill is that the fact Tony Abbott
apparently did fairly well (leaving aside the fact he had an easy run from
a stacked audience) is that it fits one of the media narratives, namely:
Abbott is appealing to the Howard battlers in vital battlegrounds such
as western Sydney. The fact that it is the closest thing to old-fashioned
stump politics is another factor that will give the story a bit of a lift
from the point of view of some media outlets.
Am just painting a worst case scenario. Objectively, the stacked audience
angle should be the news.
[And the Libs have obviously sent a few of their foot soldiers over here tonight.]
No probs Evan… got a nice cuppa tea going, I have another 3-4 hours ahead of me tonight, so I’ve rolled up the sleeves and ready for it. They’re (Lib’s) illogical and often incorrect arguments are a great read to get some chuckles going through the night.
Their ABC:
and note the glib manner ofreporting this:
This was a “Town Hall Meeting”? Puleeze!
Don’t insult my intelligence, or estabish the lack of credetials of your own.
Fulv
sikk em rex
🙂
Fulvio Sammut@1894
Exactly – Rooty Hill was as rigged as their Chook Raffles.
[No probs Evan… got a nice cuppa tea going, I have another 3-4 hours ahead of me tonight, so I’ve rolled up the sleeves and ready for it.]
😆
That’s the spirit!
Who stole my n from credentials?
Great YR@W ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-evCwsJJunQ