Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Crikey reports today’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 54-46 last week. Essential polls are a rolling two-week average, so it makes sense that they should have trailed the pack in recording Labor’s mid-campaign slump. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 42 per cent and Labor up one to 41 per cent, both taking up slack from a three-point decline for the Greens, down to 10 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full report here. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 45 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40 per cent and down three on disapproval to 45 per cent. On preferred prime minister, the gap has narrowed from 48-30 to 45-33. Thirty-eight per cent say their opinion of Gillard has gone down since the election was called against 18 per cent who say it has gone up; more surprisingly, the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 9 per cent and 42 per cent. There are also questions on which party is best to handle various issues.

General:

• Michael Kroger has written an article for The Australian on prospects for the election which becomes doubly interesting if you read between some lines. Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be that he expects them to narrowly win. Kroger sounds especially confident about Sturt and Solomon, though by omission the former suggests he may expect trouble in Boothby. The Coalition is also rated likely to win a “swag” of seats in Queensland and up to five in New South Wales, along with Hasluck and Swan in Western Australia.

• On the Channel Ten news last night, Paul Bongiorno said a Liberal insider had offered him the implausible claim that their polling showed “Labor would be lucky to hold on to one seat” in Queensland. More believably, Geoff Kitney of the Financial Review offered that both sides’ polling showed “the Coalition is in front in every marginal seat in the state”, with Labor “battling to prevent the loss of all its Queensland seats with a margin of up to 4.2 per cent”, namely Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Brisbane, Leichhardt and Petrie. Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review says seats likely to be targeted by Kevin Rudd are in fact slightly beyond this range: Bonner (4.5 per cent) and Moreton (6.2 per cent).

• Tom Dusevic of The Australian comments on the Coalition’s latent fear of Labor’s marginal seat sandbagging abilities, which succeeded beyond the bounds of what appeared possible in the South Australian election in March. Significantly, Tony Abbott felt compelled to declare during his campaign launch that “to change this government you have to throw out your Labor MP”.

• Former Labor Senator Stephen Loosley writes in The Australian that “Labor is seeking to hold government without necessarily achieving the accepted prerequisite for winning”, namely that “every federal Labor government from Chris Watson to Paul Keating has been based on carrying NSW”.

• The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Local:

Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%): Tony Abbott was in northern Queensland last Monday, where he promised $62 million would be spent on the tourism industry. The choice of Cairns as the scene for the announcement was highly significant, as unemployment has rise to near double-digit levels there due to a downturn in tourism.

Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%): Abbott’s northern Queensland sojourn also included a stop at Townsville, where he promised $21 million flood-proof Blakeys Crossing. Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin found this “strange”, as apparently any local can tell you that flooding on the lower Bohle Bridge of Bruce Highway is a greater concern. On Thursday, Julia Gillard was in town promising “up to” $160 million for a section of a ring road linking the Douglas Arterial to the Bruce Highway at Mt Low.

La Trobe (Liberal 0.5%): Labor has promised $55 million to widen a dangerous stretch of Clyde Road, which the Liberals have trumped with an $85 million promise of a railway underpass. Sushi Das of The Age surveys the electoral terrain:

Labor’s strength around the mountain area has been countered by increasing Liberal dominance in the south of the electorate, where new housing estates have emerged. Narre Warren North and Pakenham form the heart of these newly developed areas attracting trades people, small business owners and young families who have been forced further out in their hunt for affordable housing. More housing developments are planned for nearby Officer over the next few years, making the south of the electorate one of the fastest growing corridors in Victoria. Indeed, an average of five families a day are moving into the area, according to the Cardinia Shire Council. The developments have provided local employment alongside jobs provided by more established light industries and firms producing car accessories.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,905 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. You know Gus, I don’t think the filter will change one vote either way.

    Provided net speeds are not slowed, I’d be prepared to support Conroy. But join the saint side, never 😀

  6. [cud chewer

    Dee, where?
    presumably not in the same place its flooding? You’d be cooked.]
    Have no idea it was posted as a comment on my daughters Facebook.

  7. Won’t the SA legitimised gerrymander laws make it next to impossible for Labor to win the next SA state election? They’ve had a good run.

  8. [Did Kez get him to say how the boats are going to be turned around?]

    No nothing about boats.

    However the contrast between Gillard and Abbott was a amazing.

    Gillard was so across her policies.

    Abbott, doesn’t turn up for his “policy” launch, and then doesn’t have a single clue about ANY of it.

    Really it was a sad, and shows the moribund laziness of the Leader of the Opposition.

    He thinks slogans and making himself a small target is all he needs to do. Well we can all see why he doesn’t come out to explain himself.

    What an embarrassment.

  9. Mick S, seems JG wants a lot more exams, even an online testing site where studnets can go to check how they are going. National testing will narrow the curriculum etc. Are you sure you want to be part of this?

  10. The “peak speed” thing was just Abbott getting caught in a lie again. If he’s in doubt he just makes something up that sounds good for him. The epitome of untrustworthy.

  11. Yeah, the Abbott interview was a weird one. It had all the feel of a man trying to get by on the bare-bones messages he was trotting out at the start of the campaign – Labor waste, pink batts, mining tax, boo hiss – and realising that it isn’t actually enough. He opted out of the broadband argument very early. But you can’t run a line on Labor running it badly when you openly admit that you have no idea what you’re talking about. It’s a bad look. Anyway, Kerry kept at him for ages, so he was forced to say something.

    He had a talking point ready for the Orgill thing. He had one ready for the stimulus program in general. He had one ready for Nauru. That’s pretty much all he thought he’d need, and he was more or less right. You can return to a talking point any time you like, doesn’t matter how you get there.

    He got out alive. That’s all he’ll care about. It means he’s still in with a shot.

    What was worse, in my opinion, was those shots of Robb talking about whatever he was talking about, which these days seems to be predominantly Labor waste, pink batts, BER, boo hiss. He seemed to be lecturing the press gallery as if his mob was already in power and all he had to do was stonewall. That attitude of “We talk about what I want to talk about, thank you very much” is going to be a liability.

  12. “I looked forward to talking to you again Kerry…”

    Translation: “Fat effing chance! I’m gonna find any excuse to get out of going through that again! If I win next weekend, you’re the first one losing their job!”

  13. I feel strongly conflicted about Pakistan. I look at the poor bastards standing on rooftops, crouching under helicopters, kids lying sick on carpets. And I feel very sory for them. Zardari having fun in Europe while his people suffer.

    My brain says, too many people; too much deforestation; too much carbon.
    I simply can’t get it all together.

    Floods in Pakistan, China. Massive heatwave in Russia. Way too much carbon 🙁

  14. can’t believe i’m so ambiguous to who wins… never voted Libs in my life but the choice is a mad monk or a communist judas – and neither has a commitment to anything…. sad…. and confusing…

  16. Well after today, Abbott has shown he is unfit to be PM. of course the hard regular Libs will vote for him anyway..but the swinging voters must be seeing what a totally unfit person he is to lead this nation.
    Meanwhile Joe Hockey just keeps giving, everytime he opens his mouth.

  17. Boerwar,

    Your comments on Pakistan are quite sobering. I fear the same for china where deforestation is monumetal and the impatcs, based on population, will be catastrophic.

    have met foresters from central China I am rally alarmed.

  18. Abbott’s interview on the 7.30pm was one of the most embarassing interviews given by a pollie I have seen in 47 years of following politics. It would have been embarassing if the guy was a newly elected 21 year old backbencher, but for a guy who is asking to be seriously considered as a potential PM of Australia in the 21st century, it was farcical! I think we just saw the definitive moment in this campaign where the Liberals have lost the election by a big margin!!

  20. Mick S, seems JG wants a lot more exams, even an online testing site where studnets can go to check how they are going. National testing will narrow the curriculum etc. Are you sure you want to be part of this?

    Too many exams is definately a BAD thing. On balance the policies are good but they are certainly NOT perfect.

  21. ]The 7:30 Report says Labor is convinced George Christensen can’t win Dawson.

    Dawson must be the 1 seat the ALP will hold at the election! That means vale Rudd, ]

    now this is tongue in cheek is it not

  22. [Won’t the SA legitimised gerrymander laws make it next to impossible for Labor to win the next SA state election? They’ve had a good run.]

    Yes and no. If we can’t reverse the decade long entropy from the government then certainly we’ll probably lose. But if the government starts retiring its fogeys from the top and the successors take a fresh approach to governing, they could turn it back around and win the election (in which case the seats would be shifted toward them again.) I’d wager on the former at the moment. But certainly, the seats are against us next election.

  24. I wouldn’t worry about the rantings of a BOF…….seems no-one is listening.

    [Despite launching amid a blaze of publicity, MTR has claimed the title of Melbourne’s worst-performing radio station in its first full ratings period.

    The right-wing talkback station has an average audience of just 8000, according to this morning’s Nielsen report.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mtr-cops-ratings-hammering-20100810-11wf2.html

  26. Yudiono: Mr Abbort what time did you arrive?

    Abbort: I flew in this morning.

    Yudiono: Oh so you got here before your email.

  27. Ru

    [living at Coolum Beach makes up for it.]

    I have three brothers, SIL and kids that live in Coolum, have done for the past 25yrs. Beautiful place.

  28. Just finished a fine dining experience (pork loin chops, apple sauce, Brussels sprouts sautéed delicately in white wine and cream, boiled potatoes). Ummm… did I just witness Abbott throw the election away on the 7:30 Report?

  29. ltep,
    The last redistribution in SA was designed to ensure that a minority 2pp could not win. Unfortunately for the SAEC people voted not the system.

  30. The Liberals are really asking the voters to believe that they can deliver a superior national broadband scheme than the government at a fraction of the price.

    Somehow I don’t think people will be stupid enough to believe them.

  31. [Abbott’s interview on the 7.30pm was one of the most embarassing interviews given by a pollie I have seen in 47 years of following politics. It would have been embarassing if the guy was a newly elected 21 year old backbencher, but for a guy who is asking to be seriously considered as a potential PM of Australia in the 21st century, it was farcical! I think we just saw the definitive moment in this campaign where the Liberals have lost the election by a big margin!!]

    Thats my point.

    He was so lazy, he didn’t even know what peak speed was. my god, the guy just thought he could walk in and say, Waste, BER, Pink bats, Stop the boats and that will do.

    My God the man is so totally unfit.

    Foreign policy – Anglicanisation of the Pacific – What in Christs name does that mean?

    the man is an unhinged kook who actually frothed at the mouth.

  34. The Howard battlers will now be voting for the NBN otherwise their centerlink claim form emails will not reach centerlink in time for the payments.

  35. I feel sad for Nauru. The country has become a basket case after the dizzy days of phosphate mining and the wealth it generated in the sixties and seventies, The phospate reserves will run out this year. Nauru will become a failed state supported by Australia. I am not a big fan or either the Labor or Liberal policy on assylum seekers, however, at least prossesing the refugess in Nauru provided that country with much saught after income.

    C’mon Nauru, do your selves a favour, sign the UN convention on reefugees.

  40. [Foreign policy – Anglicanisation of the Pacific – What in Christs name does that mean?]

    It means guarding their democracy.

  41. Abbott was terrible but he made no major gaffes. Anyone watching would’ve been turned off but there was no “campaign killing” moments that will easily transfer to tomorrow’s headlines and reach Mr/Ms mainstream undecided voter.

  44. [AnthonyColes RT @latikambourke: Liberal source said weekend polls show TAbbott may have peaked. Reckon he just got pushed into trough by Kerry #ausvotes
    25 minutes ago via TweetDeck
    Reply Retweet]

  46. Insight is interesting. Some people have no idea though.

    Random bloke: “I think that I trust the Liberals to get us out of this debt, they did it last time, Costello and everything”

    Kevin Andrews: “But Peter Costello has retired.”

    Random bloke: “Oh really? Oh OK. That changes things”.

    Ha.

  47. [He was so lazy, he didn’t even know what peak speed was. my god, the guy just thought he could walk in and say, Waste, BER, Pink bats]

    From someone that didn’t see the interview, it sounds like he reverted to the approach that he took to that so long ago health debate with Rudd.

  48. TSOP,

    That may be true, but it just adds to today’s display of incompetence.

    It’s been a shocker for them – one they could ill afford as they have lost momentum.

  49. The 7pm Project is a much better choice for politicians than Red Faces. I never understood why the Libs chose HHIS for Tone.

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