Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Crikey reports today’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 54-46 last week. Essential polls are a rolling two-week average, so it makes sense that they should have trailed the pack in recording Labor’s mid-campaign slump. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 42 per cent and Labor up one to 41 per cent, both taking up slack from a three-point decline for the Greens, down to 10 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full report here. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 45 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40 per cent and down three on disapproval to 45 per cent. On preferred prime minister, the gap has narrowed from 48-30 to 45-33. Thirty-eight per cent say their opinion of Gillard has gone down since the election was called against 18 per cent who say it has gone up; more surprisingly, the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 9 per cent and 42 per cent. There are also questions on which party is best to handle various issues.

General:

• Michael Kroger has written an article for The Australian on prospects for the election which becomes doubly interesting if you read between some lines. Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be that he expects them to narrowly win. Kroger sounds especially confident about Sturt and Solomon, though by omission the former suggests he may expect trouble in Boothby. The Coalition is also rated likely to win a “swag” of seats in Queensland and up to five in New South Wales, along with Hasluck and Swan in Western Australia.

• On the Channel Ten news last night, Paul Bongiorno said a Liberal insider had offered him the implausible claim that their polling showed “Labor would be lucky to hold on to one seat” in Queensland. More believably, Geoff Kitney of the Financial Review offered that both sides’ polling showed “the Coalition is in front in every marginal seat in the state”, with Labor “battling to prevent the loss of all its Queensland seats with a margin of up to 4.2 per cent”, namely Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Brisbane, Leichhardt and Petrie. Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review says seats likely to be targeted by Kevin Rudd are in fact slightly beyond this range: Bonner (4.5 per cent) and Moreton (6.2 per cent).

• Tom Dusevic of The Australian comments on the Coalition’s latent fear of Labor’s marginal seat sandbagging abilities, which succeeded beyond the bounds of what appeared possible in the South Australian election in March. Significantly, Tony Abbott felt compelled to declare during his campaign launch that “to change this government you have to throw out your Labor MP”.

• Former Labor Senator Stephen Loosley writes in The Australian that “Labor is seeking to hold government without necessarily achieving the accepted prerequisite for winning”, namely that “every federal Labor government from Chris Watson to Paul Keating has been based on carrying NSW”.

• The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Local:

Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%): Tony Abbott was in northern Queensland last Monday, where he promised $62 million would be spent on the tourism industry. The choice of Cairns as the scene for the announcement was highly significant, as unemployment has rise to near double-digit levels there due to a downturn in tourism.

Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%): Abbott’s northern Queensland sojourn also included a stop at Townsville, where he promised $21 million flood-proof Blakeys Crossing. Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin found this “strange”, as apparently any local can tell you that flooding on the lower Bohle Bridge of Bruce Highway is a greater concern. On Thursday, Julia Gillard was in town promising “up to” $160 million for a section of a ring road linking the Douglas Arterial to the Bruce Highway at Mt Low.

La Trobe (Liberal 0.5%): Labor has promised $55 million to widen a dangerous stretch of Clyde Road, which the Liberals have trumped with an $85 million promise of a railway underpass. Sushi Das of The Age surveys the electoral terrain:

Labor’s strength around the mountain area has been countered by increasing Liberal dominance in the south of the electorate, where new housing estates have emerged. Narre Warren North and Pakenham form the heart of these newly developed areas attracting trades people, small business owners and young families who have been forced further out in their hunt for affordable housing. More housing developments are planned for nearby Officer over the next few years, making the south of the electorate one of the fastest growing corridors in Victoria. Indeed, an average of five families a day are moving into the area, according to the Cardinia Shire Council. The developments have provided local employment alongside jobs provided by more established light industries and firms producing car accessories.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,905 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [redwombat
    Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
    I wouldn’t worry about the rantings of a BOF…….seems no-one is listening.

    Despite launching amid a blaze of publicity, MTR has claimed the title of Melbourne’s worst-performing radio station in its first full ratings period.

    The right-wing talkback station has an average audience of just 8000, according to this morning’s Nielsen report.

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mtr-cops-ratings-hammering-20100810-11wf2.html%5D

    FOFL…… Same thing happened last time they tried to bring that crap down here.

    On a similar topic, the “Liberal stop the boat adverts” seem to be pissing off a few of Victorians, good solid Liberal voters and all. You would think they would target their dog whistles a bit better. But then they did vote in Abbott as leader.

    80+ for labor

  4. [but there was no “campaign killing” moments that will easily transfer to tomorrow’s headlines and reach Mr/Ms mainstream undecided voter.]

    The refusal to rule out an increase to the GST could be one that gets mentioned tomorrow.

  5. [I’m watching a recording of “a real debate” between Christine Milne & Barnaby Joyce from this morning’s Sunrise. This can’t be for real… 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

    Did anyone see this? Opinion please?

  6. [The 7pm Project is a much better choice for politicians than Red Faces. I never understood why the Libs chose HHIS for Tone.]
    He thought he might have been in Plucka Duck’s league.

  8. Kerry: What is peak speed

    Abbott: Look I am not a tech head

    Kerry: Look it really is a very simple concept, let me read it out to you

    This guy is embarassing. If Gilliard had responded like that she would be humiliated by the press. It’s like a handicap situation where they set the bar very low for Phony just to make it a contest.

  14. [TSOP

    “Abbott jumped shark”

    How so?]

    Just the general mood. The press are over him. He’s struggling to stay on top of it all and the opposition are starting to look spent. On the other hand, the government have just warmed up and Julia is looking increasingly Prime Ministerial.

    I mean we still have 11 days to go but I am very confident and I think the betting market is agreeing with me there.

  15. Q&A next week with Abbott is going to be very interesting. Perhaps that is why Phony cannot make a debate with Gilliard as he will be spending the time swatting on topics.

  16. how about…. “Peak policy by premonition?”
    or…. “Abbott’s Broadband premonition”…
    or “Abbott “it’s the vibe””….

  19. [The seat of Dawson does not seem to be listed on Centrebet anymore.]

    Too embarrassing to mention obviously. The Queensland Nationals on their very best vote winning behaviour. They will say and do anything to remain in opposition. Why is it they haven’t won a major election for a couple of decades?

  21. Itep 2457

    [Won’t the SA legitimised gerrymander laws make it next to impossible for Labor to win the next SA state election? They’ve had a good run.]

    You would have thought these laws would have stopped Labor winning with 48% this time, but they didn’t. Next time Labor would probably need a swing of near 2% to win with the “redrawn” boundaries, but you never know.

  23. [Can you imagine if someone put a laptop in front of Tone and asked him to turn it on………..
    crickets]

    He ends up trying to “boot up” a microwave…

  24. [TSOP

    Thanks.

    Are you reconsidering your seat prediction at this stage?]

    Wanna see what the weekend’s polls tell us but yes, I am.

  26. Even Minchin, who admitted he never used a computer, seemed well across his portfolio. Abbott is just intellectually lazy when it comes to a very important part of our future economy.

  28. There appears to be a bit of hubris here.

    Abbott jumps the shark – really?

    To paraphase a vice-presidential candidate “I know Fonzie, Fonzie was a friend of mine and Abbott is no Fonzie”

  29. Roy Morgan needs to do something about how it displays web content. I find the site really hard to read because the text s t r e t c h e s across the whole screen.

  30. I still have 30 minutes to wait for that Abbott interview… and I am so looking forward to it! I love to see the man squirm.

  31. Why do the poor old voters in Dawson have to put up with fruitloops?

    They’ve had two in succession and now Rabbott is serving up number three.

  32. [I still have 30 minutes to wait for that Abbott interview… and I am so looking forward to it! I love to see the man squirm.]
    You’ll enjoy it tonight then Ozy.

  34. Bludgers.

    I am no Abbott fan. And I confess I didn’t tune in to him for content (I has been a uncontented campaign if you know what I mean). Like many I heard it from the corner of my ears whilst feeding kids.

    But I hate/have to say: He sounded fine, presented well, avoided being a know-it-all and (last response aside) was not a wind-up slogan.

    Sorry to rain on your parade. It’s deluging in Brisbane on the eve of the show holiday.

  35. News is a business, it is a business that can take a bet on changing the government and demand a payment for doing so. I think News might have realized the bet isn’t going to pay, there is going to be no payment from the Liberals, Gillard is going to win.

    I reckon you rusted on Labor types are going to really enjoy the rest of this campaign, News has a lot of bridges to mend. Reasonable coverage in the Australian, a possibility.

  37. If I don’t see tweets and FB posts of that 7.30 Report Interview all over the web for the rest of the campaign, I’ll know Conroys filter has been hijacked by Tony.

  39. Itep

    No doubt Abbott is intellectually lazy. He thinks going from state to state gutting fish, riding bikes, running, boating, serving meals, eating scones and drinking a beer with people, is all he needs to do.

    I might add, throw in a few slogans, stop the boats, GBNT, stop the waste, stand up for Australia.

    and there you have it a ready made PM!

  42. Got diff take on Libs messon broadband What i saw on 9 and ABC News was mixed Labor/Lib argument on 42 billion vs Libs 6 billion , and Libs confusing whole issue with a sweet of diff platforms , and promising 12 to 100 in main cities

    Lets see how this is unscrambled to over 30’s Public A Labor NBN Add would help asthere’s multiple advantage to an NBN to brag about

  44. Graeme, I agree. It was an average interview and that’s enough at this stage. Stumbled a bit with the broadband stuff but it’s not a vote switcher.

  48. Could I please remind everyone here that whilst 52-48 has reinvigorated this forum and, clearly, the Labor campaign, it is still within the MOE of 50-50, so if a 50-50 comes it is not doom and gloom 🙂

  49. [Abbott is just intellectually lazy when it comes to a very important part of our future economy.]

    Three years wasted spinning, typing out press releases, thinking up slogans, and camping on the media’s doorstep. And not just Abbott either, most of his, ahem, team.

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