Crikey reports today’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 54-46 last week. Essential polls are a rolling two-week average, so it makes sense that they should have trailed the pack in recording Labor’s mid-campaign slump. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 42 per cent and Labor up one to 41 per cent, both taking up slack from a three-point decline for the Greens, down to 10 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full report here. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 45 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40 per cent and down three on disapproval to 45 per cent. On preferred prime minister, the gap has narrowed from 48-30 to 45-33. Thirty-eight per cent say their opinion of Gillard has gone down since the election was called against 18 per cent who say it has gone up; more surprisingly, the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 9 per cent and 42 per cent. There are also questions on which party is best to handle various issues.
General:
• Michael Kroger has written an article for The Australian on prospects for the election which becomes doubly interesting if you read between some lines. Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be that he expects them to narrowly win. Kroger sounds especially confident about Sturt and Solomon, though by omission the former suggests he may expect trouble in Boothby. The Coalition is also rated likely to win a “swag” of seats in Queensland and up to five in New South Wales, along with Hasluck and Swan in Western Australia.
• On the Channel Ten news last night, Paul Bongiorno said a Liberal insider had offered him the implausible claim that their polling showed “Labor would be lucky to hold on to one seat” in Queensland. More believably, Geoff Kitney of the Financial Review offered that both sides’ polling showed “the Coalition is in front in every marginal seat in the state”, with Labor “battling to prevent the loss of all its Queensland seats with a margin of up to 4.2 per cent”, namely Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Brisbane, Leichhardt and Petrie. Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review says seats likely to be targeted by Kevin Rudd are in fact slightly beyond this range: Bonner (4.5 per cent) and Moreton (6.2 per cent).
• Tom Dusevic of The Australian comments on the Coalition’s latent fear of Labor’s marginal seat sandbagging abilities, which succeeded beyond the bounds of what appeared possible in the South Australian election in March. Significantly, Tony Abbott felt compelled to declare during his campaign launch that “to change this government you have to throw out your Labor MP”.
• Former Labor Senator Stephen Loosley writes in The Australian that “Labor is seeking to hold government without necessarily achieving the accepted prerequisite for winning”, namely that “every federal Labor government from Chris Watson to Paul Keating has been based on carrying NSW”.
• The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
Local:
Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%): Tony Abbott was in northern Queensland last Monday, where he promised $62 million would be spent on the tourism industry. The choice of Cairns as the scene for the announcement was highly significant, as unemployment has rise to near double-digit levels there due to a downturn in tourism.
Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%): Abbott’s northern Queensland sojourn also included a stop at Townsville, where he promised $21 million flood-proof Blakeys Crossing. Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin found this “strange”, as apparently any local can tell you that flooding on the lower Bohle Bridge of Bruce Highway is a greater concern. On Thursday, Julia Gillard was in town promising “up to” $160 million for a section of a ring road linking the Douglas Arterial to the Bruce Highway at Mt Low.
La Trobe (Liberal 0.5%): Labor has promised $55 million to widen a dangerous stretch of Clyde Road, which the Liberals have trumped with an $85 million promise of a railway underpass. Sushi Das of The Age surveys the electoral terrain:
Labor’s strength around the mountain area has been countered by increasing Liberal dominance in the south of the electorate, where new housing estates have emerged. Narre Warren North and Pakenham form the heart of these newly developed areas attracting trades people, small business owners and young families who have been forced further out in their hunt for affordable housing. More housing developments are planned for nearby Officer over the next few years, making the south of the electorate one of the fastest growing corridors in Victoria. Indeed, an average of five families a day are moving into the area, according to the Cardinia Shire Council. The developments have provided local employment alongside jobs provided by more established light industries and firms producing car accessories.
Don’t let’s get ahead of ourselves – we don’t know what stories those dastardly Lib/Nats will be telling on the ground in Qld in the next 11 days.
Some of the stuff I heard today at prepolling from the Lib bloke was amazing. Did you know that ‘the poofter Bob Brown’ had a secret marriage in Canada and that he is now doing deals with the gays in the Labor Party!!
If Gillard wins she will be ‘shacking up’ with a bloke in the Lodge where respectable PMs’ wives have lived good lives!! I thought I was back in the 50s.
For Darn @ 2543
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumped_the_shark
Jumping the shark is a statement referring to the moment a TV show goes to extremes and indicates its demise. It comes from an episode of Happy Days when Fonzie jumped a shark.
[There appears to be a bit of hubris here.]
Please. That word is one of those “list of words that are used too often in political discussion”
There’s a difference between hubris and confidence.
[tep
Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
Get used to it Victoria. You could be in for 3 years of it.]
Three years of what?
[Graeme, I agree. It was an average interview and that’s enough at this stage. Stumbled a bit with the broadband stuff but it’s not a vote switcher]
ltep – I think the whole NBN issue is a vote switcher, especially for young people who understand these things.
Itep I sympathise with you trying to find something positive from Abbott’s performance, I know you need bucking up, he didn’t cry if that’s any help.
gloryconsequence, 50-50 is the starting gun for doom and gloom as far as I am concerned I love to see underdogs win and Tories lose. It keeps minds focused when most needed.
TSOP – yes and it is not confidence that is being shown here. It seems so like Abbott on the weekend.
[Three years of what]
PM Abbott frustrating the hell out of us.
Graeme,
Dead right it is pithing down in Brisvegas and more to come. The rabbit was challenged and gave some pith weak responses, but didnt looooose it, unfortunately.
Itep
My confidence is growing every day. Don’t put a dampner on it!
To put the Tony Abbott 730 Report interview in context, it was a fairly woeful effort in terms of substance, especially on broadband, but it was in no way an unmitigated disaster on the scale of the now legendary “written down gospel” Kerry Kerry interview of a month or two ago.
I think the biggest damage will come in terms of the impact on younger voters shocked at his utter lack of interest in technology — if one of the choice moments where he conceded he was “no tech head” gets picked up. It’s like saying: “This subject may be hugely important to you, and to Australia’s future, but I really can’t be bothered.”
ltep
80+ for labor.
That makes Abbott a loser.
Thanks Lev and Boundary Man
[PM Abbott frustrating the hell out of us.]
Yeah yeah. But with all due respect, you were still saying Howard was going to win 20 minutes after he delivered his concession speech.
Darn, I’m not saying the NBN isn’t potentially a vote switcher. I’m saying Abbott having a dodgy interview about the NBN probably isn’t one. It wasnt a birthday cake interview for instance (just go and reread a transcript of that interview and you will be cringing).
Where is Glen going? And during election time?
victoria
I’m confident too. Very confident. Even more confident now that the media is doing their job. BUT we don’t know what’s going on in the electorate. It could be 53-47 and little change. It could be 50-50 and the marginals falling. We don’t know, and we can’t trust internal polling and published polling only gives us an indication.
I will be gathering together a few reds and a pizza though, cos I have a feelin’ in me waters 😉
[Despite launching amid a blaze of publicity, MTR has claimed the title of Melbourne’s worst-performing radio station in its first full ratings period.
The right-wing talkback station has an average audience of just 8000, according to this morning’s Nielsen report.]
They are blaming poor radio reception. When in Melbourne I can hear this station perfectly – I just have never heard anything worth listening to!
Not a fan of John Laws, but seriously at least he was entertaining enough to listen to on the odd occasion – this station is really the worst I have ever heard, and obviously that is a common sentiment.
[Did you know that ‘the poofter Bob Brown’ had a secret marriage in Canada and that he is now doing deals with the gays in the Labor Party!!]
Is there anyone who doesn’t know that Bob Browns partner is a bloke? Who cares if they got married in Canada.
So, watching 7.30, it all boils down to $20 billion (maybe) over 5 years, but Tony can’t be absoloutely sure because he wasn’t in government. Yet he can still be sure the Coalition would have been less than Labor.
Please.
Pull the other one.
That’s a message for the Rusted Ons only.
If that’s the best they can come up with, it’s tantamount to a surrender.
Yes leftwingpinko, and others were claiming Rudd was going to win 100+ seats and put the Liberals into Opposition for 20 years.
Let’s not forget either that by attending another presser on boats instead of the NBN announcement Abbott was telling us where his priorities lie.
And young people in particular won’t be very impressed.
I see Patrck batemean still worried about his 10th level priority net filter , well Conroy did a brilliant job todays on NBN (for those ‘undecided’ watching , and for those net savvy viewin)
Filter qwill come in , Libd will suport it & got no choise given there base As said before prob will be Kate Ellis modal mandatory in , later opt out option w or w/o a basic filter left behind Why not concentrate on issues 90% of Aussies will actualy vote on
Gillard on the 7pm project was one giant wank, but I guess that says more about the audience who watches it.
And of course we all know that there is the one gay in the ALP village who did not do a deal with Bob Brown
[TSOP – yes and it is not confidence that is being shown here. It seems so like Abbott on the weekend.]
This is just an internet blog. Impact on the political scene ?0. Abbott and co are a political party covered by the press. We get confident, it cheers some people up and everyone else will just dismiss it as being cocky. When Abbott does it, he’s telling an entire nation he has already won. Completely different.
[2476
Gaffhook
Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 8:37 pm | Permalink
Yudiono: Mr Abbort what time did you arrive?
Abbort: I flew in this morning.
Yudiono: Oh so you got here before your email.]
Top Stuff.
Ok TSOP no hubris, but a lot of ecstatic confidence in the first week followed by a fare bit of wrist slashing non-confidence in the next week and a half. We are now back to confidence which looks like almost like adolescent hubris but is clearly not.
On the other hand I have remained nervous but quietly confident.
[…Bob Brown had a secret marriage in Canada and that he is now doing deals with the gays in the Labor Party!!
…the Lodge where respectable PMs’ wives have lived good lives!! I thought I was back in the 50s.]
Funny isn’t it, must be the “gays” in the Liberal Party giving the Greens their preferences in the seat of Melbourne. And just who was that “respectable” Liberal PM who had at least one “affair” while living in the Lodge?
[Thanks for the link Kevin. I’ve never seen a Senate poll that has even slightly resembled the final result.]
Me neither. My main interest is in projecting the Tassie senate and I tried just applying the assumption that this Morgan Senate poll will be wrong in the same way the last 2007 one was, and still ended up with an inconclusive result because of the supposed 5 points for unspecified “others” (who in reality will be lucky to get half that between them).
I love this 🙂
[Morgan presents research on Treasurer debate – Hockey more persuasive]
Interesting and I reckon Swannie deserved a bit of a kick in the backside. Where was the defence of Labor policies when Joe was raving on like a lunatic. Swannie just let it all go through to the keeper so it’s hanging out there that everything Labor touched they messed up.
My OH was actually furious with Swannie and left the room. Said he didn’t want to see him sitting there smiling instead of fighting back. The ordinary punter hears Joe’s stuff pretty clearly. Keating and Howard wouldn’t have taken any of that.
TSOP I am just feeling superstitious. I dont want anything to upset things.
BB@2572
I think that part of the interview could be the most damning. Tony simply could not avoid giving us the impression he knew he has been playing with the truth a bit more than we have come to expect
gloryconsequence@2569
Even when Labor was getting pummelled by the media, and the leaks, which were reflected in the polls. I just kept telling myself that it would get better for Labor, and things would turn around.
I believe this was in part due to me finding it extremely difficult to contemplate Abbott as the next PM!!
Frank,
Abbott is a Chinese spy?
[Liberals are suggesting TAbbott take a swim at Portsea. #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via TweetDeck]
Are there Chinese submarines circling?
[I love this
GC51
Liberals are suggesting TAbbott take a swim at Portsea. #ausvotes 3 minutes ago via TweetDeck]
ROFL. Well they voted him in.
Centrebet press release from 4 August below. Someone knew…
An astonishing betting change has occurred in the crucial Central Qld seat of Dawson, with nearly $15,000.00 in smart bets arriving for new Labor candidate and Whitsunday Mayor Mike Brunker who has firmed today from a clear $2.40 outsider back into $2.10!
Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said one Qld punter bet $8,000.00 across two bets at $2.40 and $2.30, while another client had $3,000.00 at $2.20, as well as a string of other smaller bets up to $1,000.00!
Evans said previously the LNP’s Mackay City Councillor George Christensen had powered into a clear $1.50 favourite (from $1.80) after attracting a series of wagers, including smart money from Canberra! Today, Christensen still holds favouritism, but has eased on Centrebet from $1.50 out to $1.65!!
http://www.centrebet.com/2010/08/04/election-news-and-views-centrebet
I have said before and I will say again. It’s not over until 6pm on the 21st of August. If I see someone say “We’ve won the election” or “The Libs have just lost the election” I will be bothered. (As earlier when someone claimed that the O’Brien Abbott interview has ended the election)
Abbott supporters don’t like being pushed to the corner on whirlpool over the NBN:
http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1508442
William,
What is your interpretation of the evening’s veiwing across 10, 2 and SBS
[Why not concentrate on issues 90% of Aussies will actualy vote on]
And you have spoken to them all about this Ron?
[TSOP I am just feeling superstitious. I dont want anything to upset things.]
Fair enough. I apologise if it came out as hostile.
I don’t want to come across as hubristic at all. Was just sharing an insight.
We have a lot of work to do.
[TSOP I am just feeling superstitious. I dont want anything to upset things.]
Ditto
Some of us have experienced Murphys law.
[(just go and reread a transcript of that interview and you will be cringing)….]
Abbott has a problem that Gillard does not…he looks very very odd. I appreciate he can not help that, but when he gets that boofhead, dim look on his face, the jaw juts, he licks the lips, (I still wait for the ears to start flapping for takeoff mode) it doesn’t do a thing visually. It sure isn’t helping him. Everytime he fronts the cameras on TV, the female members of my family run for cover, making odd shrieking noises…sorry but that’s the way it is.
David
You have described the same reaction that I have when I see the Rabbott!
Alright, I’ll retract the statement for the superstitious here.
(Am a skeptic, superstition is just the brain identifying patterns where there are none, as far as I am concerned)