Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. [ Mr Costello says the way the ad has been edited is deceptive and he believes Mr Abbott is a good economic manager.

    He says Prime Minister Julia Gillard must intervene and have the ad dropped.

    “Well it is very deceptive, it’s deceptive and it’s been cut, and if Julia Gillard had half an ounce of decency she’d get it off the air,” he said.
    ]

    -that’s how Costello is “reacting”, lwpinko. What a whimp. The shot they use of him is continuous and unedited. Once again, the Libs claim it is unfair for Labor to use their own words to show their incompetence.

  2. For months and months I had looked forward to the launch of ABC24.
    I now only watch SkyNews.
    The ABC offering is disappointing to say the least.

  3. The Libs have certainly has a few Yorkers bowled at them in the last over. The other bowler is sending down long-hops and full tosses, but the bloke at the scoreboard end sure knows how to worry a batsman.

    4 days to go and not $20 billion, but $40 billion worth of promises yet to be costed. How are the Libs going to pull it off when the Treasury third umpire comes back with “OUT: HANDLED BALL” as the decision?

    I guess they’ll probably just say “Treasury is nobbled” or something like that, or “Ken Henry Ken Henry Ken Henry”, but really, how do they expect to get out of this one? It’s their own idea to have a Charter, isn’t it?

  4. Mr Rabbitt cannot even manage his own affairs. Goodness, if I were paid the salary and benefits he has enjoyed over the years, I would be sitting pretty.

  5. Mr Costello says the way the ad has been edited is deceptive and he believes Mr Abbott is a good economic manager.

    What’s his specific complaint? Has he been quoted out of context, or was this just the “truth” moment before he went on to try and spin it away?

    He really can’t keep his mouth shut can he?

  6. [Abbott will be the most opportunistic populist leader we have ever seen taking his primary lead from shock jock radio and tabloid editorials. Its would be real ugly.]

    But he is PM Material according to Gratten. I actually think this is a plot by the MSM lets not subject this guy to any scrutiny as when he gets in the place will be a hoot with scandals and issues left right and centre to report. None of this boring stable govt stuff with Abbott we will get all sorts of juicy material.

  7. “Well it is very deceptive, it’s deceptive and it’s been cut, and if Julia Gillard had half an ounce of decency she’d get it off the air,” he said.

    Oh please, its his own words verbatim. The only bit missing the exact nature of the question being answered as that is done by a voice over.

  8. Bushfire,

    They simply won’t come out to bat – like the Pakistani’s did in England a few years ago.

    Hopefully, with the same result – the match declared for their opponents. (I know that the ICC overturned it a few years ago and made it a draw but the point holds!)

    1% of policy submitted to date.

    More uncosted policies yesterday.

  9. BB

    Has Costello forgotten that early in campaign he mocked Julia, “moving forward”. She did not cry foul. He thought is was very clever. Karma is a b………….!

  10. When the unhinged one was managing his family economy during his time as a minister I wonder what risk assessment he did. Not much I would think, given that he has had to remortgage his house to service his ongoing budget expense.
    Remember the sprays his side of the aisle were giving to Garrett of the riskassessment process used in the home insulation program.
    The man’s hopeless.
    “If you cant manage your household budget, you can’t manage the country’s budget.”

  11. Funny.

    I tried to find the original clip on You Tube. Thought it might be there somewhere. So Googled “costello on abbott youtube” and got nothing but old Abbott and Costello clips.

    “Who’s on first?” now, Tony?

  12. dovif,

    Why would you be so pleased to see another 500,000 people unemployed? All you have to do is look overseas to see where we would have ended up without the stimulus.

    Do you hate your fellow Australians so much that you’d rather an underclass of poverty and unemployed with all the attendant social problems that would produce.

    Labor’s policies during the GFC saved the Australian economy and all you and the Liberals can do is bitch. In the context of what was achieved through the BER programme, any waste identified is a small price to pay.

  13. BB @ 910

    Costello specifically says: “It’s been cut” -but I can’t see where it could have been.

    An earlier poster’s observation that Costello’s whinge will ensure the ad gets a run on the 6 o’clock news seems even more likely, the more Costello defends himself.

  14. Its ABC8 – not 24. If this is the best they can do during an election campaign, imagine how they would have handled 9/11? Would have cut to a Washington reporter as the second plane flew into the TT. Sky – yes Rupert – is killing them.

  15. For months and months I had looked forward to the launch of ABC24.

    BK,
    every time I see it, it looks like the work-experience kiddies are running it, struggling to keep the thing going 24/7. Last night they had some news reader who looked all of 12 yrs old… It’s not very good is it.

  16. [What’s his specific complaint? Has he been quoted out of context, or was this just the “truth” moment before he went on to try and spin it away?]

    Any chance that a decent journalist will ask him what the context really was that makes the ad deceptive?

  17. I bet the media can’t find a quote before today where Costello says anything compllimentary about Abbott’s economic credentials.

  18. B @ 792

    [Cassidy is full of it. Standing there with his prop clipboard, pontificating about the lapse in journalistic standards, while being a major contributor to the slide in his own right.]

    Quite right – Cassidy purses his lips and tsk tsks about the behaviour of some in the media pack while simultaneously wolfing down and promptly regurgitating the same steaming mess of lies and gossip in the guise of ‘reporting’ the events. What a crock!

    Cassidy and his ilk would do well to understand the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle if they think they can stand apart from the political process, comment on it from on high without their partisan musings affecting the process. On one hand they pretend to be mere objective ‘observers’ but they are there, in fact, in the mire throwing subjective mud with the best of them, and assisting their preferred candidates, the Coaliton parties.

    Hypocrites and fools, thy name is ABC …

  19. [Costello specifically says: “It’s been cut” -but I can’t see where it could have been]

    Well they cut off the bit at the end after the word “but”. In the end it still doesn’t really change the fact that he thinks Abbott’s economic credibility is a joke.

  20. The best line from the Costello ad is the comment by Hewson his former boss – that Abbott is innumerate. Imagine getting a reference from a former boss like that. The ad will getting a thorough working over by the Gruen report with special comments from Hewson himself.

  21. BK

    Agreed. Abbott complained that a pay cut was a big adjustment to make. What about a GFC. What would he have done then. Oh that’s right. Drink too much and sleep it off, and miss the vote on the stimulus!!

  22. [Hate to say this, but Sky’s non-opinionation coverage is a credit to them.

    Pity about the trogs they get on as commentators, though.]

    Have to agree there BB. Apac is brilliant for seeing everything in its entirety. I can’t get ABC24 but it sounds as tho it is a poor cousin to Sky and that’s hard to say.

  23. [I actually made a comment to the OH this morning. I said that Grattan is starting to lose touch with reality like Helen Thomas in the US!!]

    Been thinking about the corellation between Gratten and Thomas for quite some time.

  24. [ ABC 24 uncannily knows to cut off the feed when it gets interesting. Geez. 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

    from Bernard Keane – and he’s right on the money again.

  25. “If you cant manage your household budget, you can’t manage the country’s budget.”

    I must say, I am uncomfortable with this kind of personal smear. The only that could justify this sort of tactic is that the Liberals – with their US Republican tactics – would have no hesitation is levelling the same smear were it the Labor leader in the same position.

    Don’t be surprised if it gets brought up though: The campaign against Peter Debnam in the NSW election in 2007 was particularly vicious. The ALP brought up his failure in the Navy and as a manager of Gym that went broke. I recall the ALP saying it was revenge for the nasty campaign against Latham in 2004.

  26. leftwingpinko.

    Gillard has been smeared for questioning the affordability of a PPL and increases in pension. Do you see the hypocrisy of the coalition?

  27. [Mr Rabbitt cannot even manage his own affairs. Goodness, if I were paid the salary and benefits he has enjoyed over the years, I would be sitting pretty.]

    Can anyone work out the % of debt to income Tone has – would be a good comparison with the country’s debt.

  28. [it still doesn’t really change the fact that he thinks Abbott’s economic credibility is a joke]

    The press pack thought it was a joke, too.

  29. [The best line from the Costello ad is the comment by Hewson his former boss – that Abbott is innumerate. Imagine getting a reference from a former boss like that. The ad will getting a thorough working over by the Gruen report with special comments from Hewson himself.]

    Believe it or not I haven’t seen a Liberal ad since week one (doesn’t say much, I dont watch much commercial TV), however watching SBS last night I was impressed, not just with the Labor ad re Hewson and Costello, but the way it was shown. The full thirty second ad, which was powerful, another ad for something for the punters to digest what was just said, then WHAM its back on with a 15 second burst with Costello thumping Abbott again.

    It was really brilliant and devestating in its impact. Now wonder Costello is having a whinge. Your words Pete, your words.

    Talk about party disunity. Here is an ex leader who is an economics professor, and an ex long time Treasurer slamming the current leader.

    Add that to Frasier’s statement that Abbott is not ready to govern, and whose party looks divided?”

  30. done.

    [I am outraged by your treatment of the Prime Minister of Australia. Ms Gillard PM this morning was giving a talk at a school and this was televised by ABCnews24.

    Just as the Prime Minister, the highest Australian parliamentary officer in this land, sat down and began responding to the unscripted (and therefore most interesting) questions of the audience, ABCnew24 cut back to the studio to present analysis (before the PM finished???) and to show old and pre-recorded footage of other election news.

    Your actions are an insult to the high office of the Australian Prime Minister, an insult to your viewers and violates your very reason for existence, to inform the public of Australia. ABCnews24 is supposed to bring live, breaking, up-to-date coverage of events. You failed badly. You deserve to have this tweeted under the hashtags #abcnews24 #fail.

    This is not an isolated incident in an election coverage marred by missing out on, or leaving prematurely, live broadcasts and is particularly disappointing when you cross back for the umpteenth repeat of Landline or Australian Story.

    You are showing appalling judgement in programming on ABCnews24 and it is only my loyalty to the ABC which is keeping me as a viewer, hoping you improve. I know of many others who have given up on you.

    You owe the Prime Minister of Australia an apology and your viewers also. ]

  31. Joffaboy#941

    Yes, brilliant ad.

    Off topic.

    Saints did well yesterday, but can they challenge the pies? The sanity of the State of Victoria hinges on it.

  32. The press pack thought it was a joke, too.

    I think the Liberal Party in general thinks Abbotts economic credentials are a joke. Abbott has never held an economic portfolio, he’s only had social policy portfolios.

  33. Joffa,

    I reckon these are as devastating as the Latham L plates.

    They really ram home the perceptions of Abbott.

    I suppose they have been planned for a long while – the ALP has been very patient in the campaign from the looks of things. They could well have paniced early on and shown these too early to cement voter’s feelings.

  34. They should have shown Who’s On First? instead of the Lib policy speech. Genuine talent on show instead of Mr. Innumerate (he’s back on the bench, waiting for a game).

  35. They could well have paniced early on and shown these too early to cement voter’s feelings.

    Oh they panicked alright. But it was a productive panic.

  36. The Stiglitz article should be compulsory reading for the MSM and the Libs on the stimulus package and debt, some good quotes:

    [To put it in economics jargon, efficiency requires equating the marginal cost associated with allocation (both in acquiring information about the relative benefits of different projects and in monitoring investments) with the marginal benefits. In a nutshell: it is wasteful to spend too much money preventing waste.]

    [For an American, there is a certain amusement in Australian worries about the deficit and debt: Australia’s deficit as a percentage of GDP is less than half that of the US; its gross national debt is less than a third.]

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