Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. I doubt anyone hear has read the Costello Memoirs (the most boring book I’ve ever read), but Costello talks about how Abbott was bragging about how he learned most of his economic knowledge at the feet of B.A Santamaria.

    I can’t remember what Costello said his reaction to this was but I think it was something like a shudder or I held my head in shame. If you read the book (again if you’re going to do it, look for this specific bit at the risk of death from boredom), you’ll see what I mean.

  2. [Off topic.

    Saints did well yesterday, but can they challenge the pies? The sanity of the State of Victoria hinges on it.]

    14 other teams could have beaten Port yesterday. They were awful, but nice for the Saints to get some for back.

    As for September – different ballgame. Saints won 20 H&A games last year and couldn’t win the flag. Just get top four and a whole new ballgame.

    Just like the election, down to the last two weeks, the punters are getting engaged, and it’s the economy, stupid.

    the economy

    the economy

    the economy.

    L plate Abbott gets bagged by his own team.

    Unfunded promises.

    its the economy stupid.

  3. [ Labor have been patient. ]

    You think this is a “wait till you see the whites of their eyes” strategy?
    I’m not so sure, seems that waiting for Abbott to cock it up and risking letting the Libs get momentum would be too risky. Labor has been genuinly struggling with this campaign and to this point it has been a shocker.

  4. This campaign has turned. For the first time, its heading Julia’s way – on style, substance and reporting. But the result will still be knife-edge.

  5. William Bowe today

    “Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5.”

    yes exactly point I tried to make last nite but all werehigh on highs , that Newspoll was ACTUALY about 1/2 way between 51/49 and 52/48 !

    Galaxy has proved that with identical primary no’s by party and a 51/49 result

    BTW also peoles keep saying Labor primary is 39 , its 38
    Good news is polls rot has been frozen from leaky headlines of 2nd week & now up 1%

  6. Oh, for Christ’s sake:

    You mightn’t agree with him and you mightn’t love him, but [Oakes] takes the use of his power seriously. He brings decades of context and experience to his analysis of issues and events. This correspondent is fortunate to work alongside and have been mentored for many years by Canberra’s other doyen, The Age’s political editor Michelle Grattan, who exhibits similar professional values.

    But what Oakes has done in this campaign is lead at a time where it is increasingly hard to lead, and to remind his viewers, our critics, the politicians and the public, that a bit of new fashioned, old fashioned journalism can still matter; that it can still be worth the time you invest to read and watch and listen and then debate the merits of what the profession has delivered.

    That independence still has value in an age where the currency of almost everything is eroded.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/news-giant-oakes-shows-up-new-media-pretenders-20100809-11s4g.html

    It’s not about Oakes’ “power”. He’s not running for election.

  7. [I doubt Abbott could do what Gillards just did. No way he could sit there and answer questions across portfolios.]

    I can guarantee he couldn’t which is why you won’t see him on Q&A and why he dodges Kerry.

  8. [Fantastic that journalists are actually asking Gillard policy questions. At las]

    what has woked them up to the fact that is what we want.??

  9. Joe Hockey:

    “This election we are only making promises that we can deliver”

    Such as not making any promises about things that aren’t already on track to happen at all?

  10. Barbeque Bill

    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    “My twin Brother Bushfire Bob was a bit embarrassing last night”

    Ordinary excuse when on th turps , or Fosters
    Can I use same excuse anytime for my twin bro Ron

  11. Hockey citing our bountiful destiny. The world wants our stuff. Wants us to be stable and will sell them stuff on cheap. Libs have experience paid back debt before, will fix mistakes of last 3 years (stimulus a mistake, oh Joe!)

  12. Swan comes out with convincing hard numbers about the economy, Hockey comes out with a long gigantic fart of vague rhetoric and hazy generalities about economic concepts.

    At least in my view

  13. [Just imagine how far ahead Labor would be if they had the same support from News Ltd with the ABC parroting everything they throw up?]

    The ABC-TV 24 Midday News report was predictably positive about Abbott’s campaign launch—zero detail, just repetition of their old meme that 3 weeks ago his party thought the election was unwinnable, but now they’re within grasp of victory. The latest Newspoll gives Labor “an edge”, but not to worry because look how far ahead the Coalition is on the primary votes.

    Okay, nothing out of the ordinary pro-Abbott spruiking so far. But then the ABC reporter jumped a shark that could star in “Jaws V”. Showing video of a smiling Andrew Peacock working a room, she stated wtte: “And another former Liberal Leader who ran two of their campaigns has arrived from America to lend his support……..showing the sort of discipline which the Labor Party can only dream about!”

    So, now it’s like the machine in “1984” that erases all past media reports of persons the State wants “disappeared”. Malcom Fraser was never PM for over 7 years, and John Hewson didn’t lead the Libs for over 4 years, otherwise they’d be here now lending support and showing the sort of discipline which the Labor Party can only dream about.

    Normally, I can get infuriated with ABC political coverage, but this reporter is so far below high school newspaper standard of journalism that she saddens me beyond words.

  14. Getting dole bludgers under 30 off dole. Get the oldies off welfare, get ’em working too. Looks like only libs are allowed to not work till they die. Get dole bludging youth and oldies sweeping streets.
    Now lecture on tax reform. oh now he stopped.

  15. That Murphy article on Oakes reads as tho the media is entitled to run the campaign!

    Julia G was terrific by what I saw on Sky. Looked confident answered well and really on top of everything.

  16. [jumped a shark that could star in “Jaws V”. Showing video of a smiling Andrew Peacock working a room, she stated wtte: “And another former Liberal Leader who ran two of their campaigns has arrived from America to lend his support……..showing the sort of discipline which the Labor Party can only dream about!” ]

    How old is this reporter / PEACOCK?

  17. [ Fantastic that journalists are actually asking Gillard policy questions. At las

    what has woked them up to the fact that is what we want.??
    ]

    It may well have been you, my say, along with others here who have taken the time and effort to make written and/or phone complaints. More likely, the Rudd issue has been put to bed.

  18. confessions @ 899

    [Agree. I don’t get ABC24, but from what I’ve seen from comments here and elsewhere, the Sky coverage has been vastly superior.]

    Sadly, this is entirely true, as the new ABC24 has been abysmal in its first few weeks of operation, regularly making inappropriate cuts in live reports of both party’s spokespeople to cross back to the studio for some banal, or irrelevant talking head crap that could’ve waited. Whoever is in control of the ABC24 content is a rank amateur, and their selection of what to report shows a total lack of understanding of the salient issues in an election campaign. And John Q Public foots the bill for this extravagent waste of airtime and space!

    SkyNews is, by comparison, thoroughly polished and well presented, albeit totally festooned with Coalition talking head hacks, but the general reporters are, on the whole, fairly neutral. If you always remind yourself that these Skynews people are News Ltd employees with an agenda to push, then it is no more annoying for its editorial content than ‘The Australian,’ but you get more of the facts as real news does seep through when you can actually hear what the politicians are saying, and this can’t be papered over, or obfuscated by journalistic spin.

  19. Watching Julia on APAC taking questions on Education. She is a first class minister. There is absolute no comparison with that bubbling fool!!

  20. [Saints did well yesterday, but can they challenge the pies? The sanity of the State of Victoria hinges on it.]
    Cats aren’t done yet. Played one of their worst games for the year, had at least one goal openly stolen by the umpires, and still only lost by a few goals.

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