Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. Oh, FFS! Why is that parent just sitting there with a crying child on their lap while the PM is speaking? Are they a Coalition plant? Why doesn’t some staffer gently suggest moving the child -which obviously doesn’t want to be there- to somewhere inaudible. What’s the bet there’s a “PM makes kids cry” headline/angle in tonight’s coverage?

  2. Kezza @ 822,

    I’ve said repeaedly that the Coalition will not submit the majorityof their policies for costing.

    As that article points out, they are up to $40 BILLION in tax cuts and spending promises now. They cannot send this to Treasury, it will be torn to shreds.

    I believe the ALP spend is still under $5 Billion.

    There is no way the Coalition can do this and bring in a surplus in 2012.

  3. [What do they say?]

    Nothing really. Usual grainy images, black and white pictures, eery music and spooky voiceover talking about not risking Abbott accompanied with a statement by John Hewson about him not being ready and a quote from a Costello presser about not trusting Abbott on economic issues and the press pack laughing.

  4. sean:
    [but Kelly was just stating a conventional truth – which is that Labor find it extremely difficult to win elections with a primary below 40.]

    Yes, but it fails to take account of the high Greens vote in the poll relative to their actual vote in past elections. Labor could well get 52% 2PP and win an election on 38% primary if the Greens really get 13%. Kelly should be able to see that rather than just rely on simplistic conventional wisdom.

    victoria
    [Do you think it could be used in an ad?]

    That time has passed, I’m afraid.

  5. [Don’t know if this has been commented on, but I reckon it’s significant. Peter Costello wasn’t at the launch.Think about that.]

    Was Costello asked why on Sky?

  6. Mr Denmore

    Building school halls has benefits … yes

    Building school halls on budget and getting value for money shows economic competence

    Should a private and public school get the same value for money?

  7. What do they say?

    It is essentially a quick replay of a media conference where Costello is asked to endorse Tony Abbotts credentials and Costello says:

    “Not on economic matters no…Tony…”(then the audience at the media conference starts to laugh and you see a classic Costello smirk)…

  8. Costello – a man who happened to be in the treasury position (albeit in the recline position) when the western global economy went on a debt fuelled binge (otherwise known at a ‘boom’)

    Calling a right wing political pragmatist like Gillard a ‘socialist’ gives a good indication of the intellect of the guy..

    I like Rory Robertson’s description of the role of the modern treasurer. “the man who pretends to run the economy”.

  9. Hey dovif

    After your stupid efforts in supporting smoking organisations funding the Liberal party why do you think you have even a shred of credibility?

  10. Triton

    Yeah, I agree with that, but i’ve long since given up expecting that any journalist has the capacity to think outside of the ‘conventional thinking’ box…

  11. Bob Brown focusing on Abbott’s ‘hit list’ as the Government should be:

    [“My question to Tony Abbott is, `you have a big, secret hitlist for funding … is Antarctic funding on that list? Is the CSIRO?'” Senator Brown told reporters in Hobart. “What else is on the hitlist?”]

  12. [The Costello ads are dynamite because they tap into the pre existing perception that Abbott is a bit of a loose cannon and a risk. Also, I think alot of the perception about the Tories economic genius is tied up with Costello who frankly, doesn’t have a good word for Abbott when it comes to the economy.]

    Remember Costello’s view on Howards economic abilities were scathing. Kept repeating Howards record as Treasurer – recession, massive deficit, record debt

  13. [I think the ads are a waste of money]

    And I suppose the Lemon ads are great Dovif?

    You’re just angry because a) they’ll work and b) it is your people sticking their feet in their mouths.

  14. Bill Shorten should have said;

    Hmmm Andrew peacock and poor management should definitely be in the same sentence. How many companies are in Liquidation while he is on the board?

    That’s poor management.

  15. [stop whinging, mate. Labor saved this economy. End of story.]

    It has taken a while but that is the main them of this election – It is the Economy Tony.

  16. Ooops! Major typo on Julia’s powerpoint presentation…

    “Primary schools
    Secondary secondary”

    Does anyone ever proofread nowdays?

  17. [Costello has said he was busy campaigning in Higgins.]

    He doesn’t need to campaign in Higgins, so that’s just an excuse for not attending.

  18. [Why is that parent just sitting there with a crying child] Well Julia is at a school with littlies. They sound cute actually.

  19. Julia facing random questions from parents and bloody abcnews24 turn off telecast just as ppl start to ask about policies, to get analysis from someone Freaking rude, what a way to treat Australia’s PM.

  20. the spectator @ 696

    [I would of thought someone with Grattens record would be able to pick Abbott to pieces compared to other aspirants to the job that she has seen but no.]

    Sadly, La Grattan is looking increasingly like the ancient crone, Helen Thomas, and just as out of touch with reality. Time to pension her off to a maximum security twilight facility for demented and decrepit journalists, in my view.

  21. Itep
    Brown’s right on the money. There will be carnage should the libs get in – another ‘budget black hole’, the targeting of programs and policies that don’t have resonance with the ‘mainstream’, a prolonged whitlamesque narrative about labor incompetence. Abbott will be the most opportunistic populist leader we have ever seen taking his primary lead from shock jock radio and tabloid editorials. Its would be real ugly.

  22. [well we know that Costello is an egoist]

    Poor old Cossie will be caught between the delight of seeing himself on TV, being shown as a player in this election and the fear that the joke isn’t just on Abbott …

  23. [to get analysis from someone Freaking rude, ]
    sorry for grammar, shaking in rage.

    Now showing Abbott eating ice-cream at ag show. WHILE PM IS TALKING TO PEOPLE. FFS

  24. [Costello has said he was busy campaigning in Higgins. Without his non-stop 24/7 campaigning that seat is at risk.]

    Thanks Itep – and that is the laugh of the day. I thought he’d come up with something better than that e.g. ‘why would I want to sit anywhere near that old …… Howard’

  25. Julia’s killing it at this school talk. She’s so on top of her game.

    Meanwhile, in a cave somewhere……

    “We’ll stop the boats, and stop the batts, and lock up people on Nauru, then we’ll pay the debt and be a grown-up guvmnt. Just like Unca Johnnie’s was, GREATBIGNEWTAX GREATBIGNEWTAX, GREATBIGNEWTAX.”

    My, what a difference a day (and a poll) makes.

  26. now to Antony Green with seat analysis, none of this live, after leaving live cross to PM…..geezus wept , can it get any worse?

  27. The Big Ship@877

    I actually made a comment to the OH this morning. I said that Grattan is starting to lose touch with reality like Helen Thomas in the US!!

  28. Poor old Cossie will be caught between the delight of seeing himself on TV, being shown as a player in this election and the fear that the joke isn’t just on Abbott …

    He might be reacting to a phone call from Liberal HQ to get out there and do something about those ‘f__king ads’…

  29. Hate to say this, but Sky’s non-opinionation coverage is a credit to them.

    Pity about the trogs they get on as commentators, though.

  30. leftwingpinko

    This Costello ad must be cutting through. He did not attend Liberal launch, but he is out there defending himself against the ad. Lol!!

  31. BH – thanks for that gittins link. The mainstream press’ treatment of the BER probably gets under my skin more than any other thing. The ABC god love it, even presented its coverage of the report into it as though it was a damming report. Its the lemming effect – they all just run with the pack. Its more about dominant narratives than the actual truth of the matter…depressing..

  32. [rown’s right on the money. There will be carnage should the libs get in – another ‘budget black hole’, the targeting of programs and policies that don’t have resonance with the ‘mainstream’, a prolonged whitlamesque narrative about labor incompetence. Abbott will be the most opportunistic populist leader we have ever seen taking his primary lead from shock jock radio and tabloid editorials. Its would be real ugly.]

    Bob Brown might get more than he bargained for by being so chummy about Abbott over the past 6 months.

  33. Of course abcnew24 cut off the gillard news conference just as she starts to answer questions – cuts to melissa clarke at the new desk.

    ABC goes lower on this each day.

  34. [Hate to say this, but Sky’s non-opinionation coverage is a credit to them.]

    Agree. I don’t get ABC24, but from what I’ve seen from comments here and elsewhere, the Sky coverage has been vastly superior.

  35. This Costello ad must be cutting through. He did not attend Liberal launch, but he is out there defending himself against the ad. Lol!!

    What was the main thrust of his defence?

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