Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. I’m stuck. I despise Labor’s internet censorship policy, as well as their general right-winged nature. Liberal is more right-wing, but doesn’t have an internet censorship policy. I wish I had an option of “I hate you both!”

    Mind you, this has further irritated me: Some bureaucrat is sneering at the Freedom of Information Act, by releasing a decument that’s been so heavily redacted that it’s worthless. The stated reason? In her unsupported view, releasing this information would be “contrary to the public interest” and lead to a “premature and unnecessary debate” on the merits of the internet censorship proposal.

    Document: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=gmail&attid=0.1&thid=12a04380b10501f6&mt=application/pdf&url=https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui%3D2%26ik%3D6bf0d8f168%26view%3Datt%26th%3D12a04380b10501f6%26attid%3D0.1%26disp%3Dattd%26zw&sig=AHIEtbR_YcdvTpL6iFK1YfizXfZKi-1ZVA

    Letter of explanation: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=gmail&attid=0.2&thid=12a04380b10501f6&mt=application/pdf&url=https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui%3D2%26ik%3D6bf0d8f168%26view%3Datt%26th%3D12a04380b10501f6%26attid%3D0.2%26disp%3Dattd%26zw&sig=AHIEtbRdj4aPMUjyhY5hc0guenLFpCRdyQ

  2. 😆 Dear oh dear. Learn more about your first language r/Ron before you go off. It would assist the maintenance of your equilibrium.

  4. lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 2, 2010 at 12:41 am | Permalink

    ‘I think it is pretty obvious that the knifing of Rudd was extremely stupid from any number of angles.’

    “Yes, TP:”

    Do not let TP’s bitter and unpolitcal opinions sway you , but look at Polls for facts

    chanfge happened 23/6 , Labor polls were fine incl first week
    They IS facts , making TP’s bitterness to be ignored

    so one needs to see WHY polls changd last week , that started earlier then last week , leaks , more leaks , and leaks twisted into lies that Julia welched , did not attend Security meetings and was anti pension rise and anti PPL

    there is no need to panic , Labor has a record to be proud of to tell voters as i listed in #108 of BER , NBN , Hospitals and anti W/C

    as to selling Labor’s fine GFC peformanse , yu might wish to gander at my #121 becuase i think its saleable using Prof Stigler’s words (plus his vision or of Swan visual

    Newspoll does not shaken my view of what voters ‘finally’ vote on ie above issues

  6. Matt@147

    I’m stuck. I despise Labor’s internet censorship policy, as well as their general right-winged nature. Liberal is more right-wing, but doesn’t have an internet censorship policy. I wish I had an option of “I hate you both!”

    It’s an uncomfortable position isn’t it. It’s like being swept away in a flood and catching hold of a two-branched tree with a brown snake on one and a taipan on the other. Which branch to choose?

    Of course, the proper answer to that dilemma is to exhaust your preferences at the base of the tree by numbering every square, and the least despised choice will emerge. 😆

  7. The problem Labor have in knifing Rudd is that Rudd was the face of the GFC rescue. He is entirely associated with it whilst Swan was in the background still trying to improve his credibility.

    When Labor talk of the GFC rescue people will immediately think of Rudd. If Gillard comes out and says ‘we’ …. The media will say, hang on, it was Rudd doing these ‘great’ things but you knifed him?

  8. This is why Gillard may not have any incumbency benefit, people still see the Govt as Rudd’s and JGillard and applicant for the job.

  9. brisoz at 149,

    I still believe that the ALP are favourites over the Coalition to win the election. Now certainly the odds of a Hung Parliament have increased, but with only 3 Independents the odds are still very low.

  10. If Labor lose Arbib, Shorten and the others will deserve a razor wire toilet brush inserted into certain places before they are thrown out. Tossing away government just so you can put your mate in the job is spitting in the face of Labor and the people who voted for Rudd.

    However there will be a benefit from Labor losing apart from giving the rabid right a kick in the face, it will create one of the best reality shows for 2010 as the civil wars begin.

  12. Good to see the editorial of the australian is keeping it classy with the baseless attack on the Greens. Perhaps I expect too much?

  13. Let me rephrase: ….ahem

    What part of “Its the economy, you 2nd rate gang of cloth-eared NSW hacks” doesn’t the ALP campaign team get?

    If those pricks are holding back becuase it might somehow put Rudd back in the frame, they should marched out and shot at dawn.

  14. [Rudd’s call to go with what Henry suggested, then the team manipulated to suit their own electoral ends.

    It is basically 100% Rudd’s baby. He is the one that makes the brave call to do all this stuff when the public were still thinking what GFC. If he got wrong.]

    Uhh no. Internal party debates aside, Wayne Swan was Treasurer during the GFC, he is Treasurer now. He gets share in the legacy. You are right that Rudd has a share too, but it has always been the case of a PM proudly boasting a strong economy, with the Treasurer not far behind them also taking credit for it.

    lefty e is right that the government needs to get out there and start selling its economic credentials more, and swan can certainly spearhead that. I’d hazard a guess and say they are waiting for the RBA’s move on Tuesday, just to be certain of what is going to happen re: rates before they move on to the economy.

    I agree with the complete sentiment that the government need to get back on the front foot and sell itself harder, while warning voters away from Abbott (without getting personal)

  15. Thomas Paine@157

    However there will be a benefit from Labor losing apart from giving the rabid right a kick in the face, it will create one of the best reality shows for 2010 as the civil wars begin.

    Plus the Libs no doubt crashing and burning in a short time. If there are genuine civil wars resulting in splits, it gives some hope to a vote for PR as the best way to achieve power for their groups rather than working with a large amorphous party within which they have very limited influence.

    Also, I am starting to suspect more and more that Faulkner and Tanner, who would not cash in their left chips to the Arbib mafia, resigned because of the ‘take no prisoners’ approach of the new power group that we know so well in NSW. There have been media reports from some other members of parliament to that effect.

    I reckon those two might be going to work very hard to break the new brotherhood from within their respective party organisations. It makes for interesting times, whether Labor win or lose.

  16. [However there will be a benefit from Labor losing apart from giving the rabid right a kick in the face]

    How do you think losing to an increasingly right wing opposition, led by a right wing leader who deposed a moderate leader, for ideological reasons, with a PM from the left faction is going to move the party leftwards?

  17. Gix@146

    I dont think that the debates are really the format for a change like this. Yup, if she called for more debates now it would be a free kick to Abboot (which i dont think he will get) for her to do to that. Debate issue is water under the bridge i think.

    I think there will be a ramping up of “attacks” on Abbott, but most or all of those attacks are going o be based on things that Abbott HAS actually said and done so will be seen as legitimate. After all, someones “record” is something that is legitimate for examination in a campaign.

    Interesting times ahead, but at this point i’d rather be barracking for Julia rather than Tone’s. If he does,
    [sit back behind his script and one liners which are his forte.]

    then he’s going to get left well behind the game which i think is changing around him, and there is a real potential here for him to be comprehensivley out-manuvered.

    I’d expect that the Libs will be playing up the “Julias panic” meme, but that its likely to last only a couple of days. RBA meeting this week (?) will bring the focus VERY directly on to the economy. Libs will go with Debt/Deficit but if rates stay steady that will look pretty weak, while the ALP goes hard on low unemployment (which people can relate to on the ground), links that to the efficacy of the StimPac, and probably goes hard on how much worse the unemployment rate would be if the Libs had been in charge.

    Yup, Rudd was in charge during the implementation of the StimPac, but Gillard was Deputy and the Libs have already been working hard to link her to any and every program that happened under Rudds tenure as PM. Shes already worn that can play up the fact that the “Team” that was in charge at the time is still there (although Tanners loss next term is a bit of a blow here).

  18. @TSOP 166: One would imagine that it’ll teach Labor that they can’t take the left wing for granted, lest their votes go Green, ASP or some other such.

    Mind you, the only plausible scenario that this involves in a system with compulsory preferential voting is that those preferences come home in the Lower House, but Labor gets whacked in the Senate – which will send the message just fine, as well as hamstringing the right wing of the ALP caucus by denying them a co-operative Senate.

    Just, whatever you Victorians do, don’t re-elect Fielding!

  19. [However there will be a benefit from Labor losing apart from giving the rabid right a kick in the face,]

    That TP is complete tosh.

    The country is in deep manure if Abbott and his right wing rabble get elected.

  20. [One would imagine that it’ll teach Labor that they can’t take the left wing for granted, lest their votes go Green, ASP or some other such.]

    Yeah, I don’t think extortion is the best way to get the party to see things from one’s perspective.

    I honestly think letting Julia be Julia in the campaign will warm the party up a bit more to the left. Although not as radically left as some will hope.

  21. We didnt elect him in the first place, Matt.

    He was generated by our national embarrassment: the undemocratic and unjustifiable lodged-ticket senate voting system.

    Favoured by semi-democracies everywhere!

    Give a hack your vote: go above the line.

    its so easy, you’ll *almost* feel like you decided.

  22. From Swan reported in the OO:

    [Mr Swan said that most advanced economies were “wading knee-deep through the rubble of high and prolonged unemployment” while Australia was training more apprentices than at the time the global financial crisis began in 2008.

    “Our pitch is two-fold – we’ve saved the country from recession, we’ve kept unemployment low and, as a consequence, are better positioned to approach the reform agenda as we go forward,” he said.]

    I’d expect to hear this or some other version for the next 3 weeks.

    Had a read of Shamahan as well. He seems to think there is something bad about taking Abbott to task for his extensive list of previous brainfarts. Much surprisement!!

  23. In fact. If one were to do a post-mortem on a Labor election loss, it wouldn’t surprise me if one came to these three conclusions:

    1. Australia is very right-wing; policies must thus be adjusted (ie. boats, taxes etc.)
    2. Leaders should be “safe” candidates (ie. middle aged white Christian men)
    3. The left are fickle and will abandon the ALP and even support the “greater of two evils” at the drop of a hat (as soon as something doesn’t go their way.)

    I mean sure, you can hope that the Labor party say “Gosh, Bob Brown was right!” or The leftists in the ALP caucus chase Arbib and Shorten out of town, but I think some or all of the 3 aforementioned conclusions would be more likely to be reached.

    I would call a defeat of Labor a Pyrrhic victory for the left but it’s not really a victory at all. It’s a (to use a dumb variation) Pyrrhic defeat.

  24. [Just, whatever you Victorians do, don’t re-elect Fielding!]

    Funny thing is you might get him back, but off the Libs’ preference. Depends on high big Labor’s Senate vote is.

    I empathise, SA is in a very similar predicament.

  25. Pebbles

    Whilst i said I favor a TV add showing Prof Stigler’s praising Labors GFC performanse , fact is GFC is not only history to voters , but to most voters there was no recession !

    So in some ways Labour govt did TOO good a job on GFC , in politcal terms , although obviously not econamicly in avoiding GFC

    Anyway Labor has already been talking there econamics record , it just does not get reported but beleive TV adds will get shown saying this record

    Tonite just like Neilson Poll nite , anti Labor rats out here , j/v and matt and TP etc so happy Labor may lose , & pushing there radical loon ideas , anti 90% oz peoples views

    Well eat your hart out , Labor will win on its fine left reform record
    becuase thats what voters at end of day after talk fest campiagns vote on
    econamy , jobs , hospitals , education , nbn and anti W/C (Labor in front on them all
    except boats and imigration So no time to panic , will just make victory more sweet

  29. I’m looking at the primaries. Nielsen had them ALP 36, Coal 45. This Newspoll has them at 37/44. Both had the Greens at 12.

    So to me this Newspoll basically looks like a confirmation of the Nielsen.

  33. [After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two.

    Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland.

    In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources.

    “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”

    Together with Labor’s unusual decision to formally launch its election campaign in the final week, this does suggest Labor’s strategy is to try to deliver a decisive blow in the late phase of the campaign.]

    Interesting stats.

  35. Surely Labor needs to get well above 37% to win the election? 3 weeks is plenty of time though especially with Julia about to get off the leash 🙂

    Those betting on Betfair should remember the 5% commission when comparing prices – you will still normally do better but keep it in mind

    The best debate of the election is about to start Australian Sex Party vs Family First on Sunrise

    Vote 1 Australian Sex Party

  36. [The chief executive officer of Deafness Forum Australia, Nicole Lawder, said Mr Abbott had belittled the efforts of organisations such as hers and ”he should spend a day in earmuffs and see how he finds it”.]

    Not a bad idea actually! At least he wouldn’t look like Dumbo 😀

  38. Grrrr Mel lost total control there, but still good to see some different political parties get a run on mainstream tv

    Vote 1 Australian Sex Party

  39. If people really have decided to change the government there’s not much Labor can do about it but highlight what it would entail. To me, the biggest negative change would be the scrapping of the NBN. I’m sure there’s other things too.

  42. How long will Gillard be PM for after the election? How long will it be before the Right Wing nutters install their man in the top job?

    I’d give her 18 months at the most.

    Iemma – Rees – Keneally in NSW. Federally, Rudd – Gillard – ???.

  43. [Interesting stats.]

    Interesting strategy. I’d have thought that as some of Labor’s primary vote has gone directly over to the Libs then the sooner they are enticed back the better. Deferring the advertising campaign to win them back to the last week is very risky I’d have thought – risky bordering on suicidal.

  45. [Deferring the advertising campaign to win them back to the last week is very risky I’d have thought – risky bordering on suicidal.]

    Agree.

    It sounds to me like a strategy dreamt up a month ago, when Labor HQ (and plenty of others) were expecting this thing to be a cake-walk.

  47. [Iemma – Rees – Keneally in NSW. Federally, Rudd – Gillard]

    Nelson, Turnbul, Abbott can be added to list of revolving door failures with no vision.

    Who’s still standing?…. Bob Brown.

  49. The 50/50 poll sounds about right. I would agree with those who say Labor has had a shockingly bad campaign. 50/50 is a terrible result in the context of an opposition leader trailing 50/35 in the PPM stakes. Plus, Abbott has all the momentum.

    The leaks have prevented scrutiny on Abbott’s completely undeliverable promises. He will BOTH raise taxes (the company PPL “Levy” is still a $3 billion tax), and cut health services, because he has promised other pork as well. He won’t cut defence or infrastructure (except the NBL), so the money will surely come out of health. There is nothing left for either side to cut in the white anted tertiary education sector.

    Labor can still offer a positive message. I think the economic rhetoric can safely be changed at this point to “we have gotten you through the bad times” (true) and “better times are coming” (also true via mining). See this story for evidence of the latter; everyone I know in Perth is flat out on new projects. This will start flowing through elsewhere soon, and tip tax revenues up:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/perfect-opportunity-to-bash-mining-tax-20100801-111hz.html

    The fact that Abbott would give away all the new mining tax revenue is still terrible policy. he shoudl be hammered on this. Where is the long term vision for Abbott? There isn’t one, except for making more (catholic?) babies.

  50. I’ve heard this stuff about Labor holding its fire until they see the colour of their eyes, then launching the mother of all TV blitzes. It never happens. Usually it’s the Tories who do the blitzing.

    The big question is: Is this as bad as it gets for Labor? Have the Tories peaked too soon? Or are they on a roll that will have no ending?

    You may think so, but I couldn’t possibly say.

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