Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. The Queensland Liberals are the champions of debt and deficit. So much so that the National Party had to take them over in a hostile bid to save the Liberals from sinking further in the Millions of dollars in debt they couldn’t repay. Some economic managers alright.

  2. The only reason Swannie and Rudd dished out so much lolly is the same reason why a dog licks its balls. we need wiser heads in control of the public purse now

    Rightio then – who do you suggest they might be? I can’t imagine you’re referring to the Coalition; they’re incapable of costing their own policies – and they’re having difficulties with the concept that if you don’t collect a mining tax, you don’t save money by cutting programs the mining tax was earmarked to finance. So we can rule them out.

    Is there some other major party that we’re unaware of?

  3. Fighting insulaton 4 deaths and fires spin only inside HoR for over 4 mths , instead of in Public arena to kill it off whilst in reel world MSN were selling its failure by sensationalism was biggest communications gaffe of all In end Peter was sacrificed to kill it for publicly not ruthlessly defending Labors record

  4. [another one bites the dust]

    I really hope so Gus. I actually live in Freo, but figure that if i’m going to make a contribution on the day its better made in a seat where we can take on off the Libs rather than a safe one like Freo.

    Melissa Parkes has a very healthy margin in Freo and has done pretty well over her first term building a local profile so i dont think she is in any danger at all.

    Canning is a bit of an ask or the ALP to take, but if they are ever going to get it back it will be this year and i’d really like to be part of that.

  5. The Queensland ALP are the champions of debt and deficit. So much so that the had to sell a swag of state owned assets to avoid sinking further in the billions of dollars of debt they couldn’t repay. Some economic managers alright.

  6. Ronster

    On the “running the economy” question, the Libs always beat Labor but there have been quite a few occasions when the polls put Rudd ahead of Turnbull/Abbott on being able to run the economy.

    That makes things a bit hard for Gillard because she can’t do the presidential thing like Rudd on the economy as we don’t know what the voters think of Gillard vs Abbott on the economy.

    And has anyone noticed that this is the least presidential of any election recently? I haven’t seen any presidential TV ads (although I culd have missed them) and there are no Gillard/Abbott corflutes and no shared corflutes of X leader with the candidate. I toss all electoral letterbox stuff straight in the bin so I don’t know if that has a bit more about the leaders.

  7. 2004 was the biggest chance imacca with him being on 0.9%

    I was at his campaign HQ on election night in 2004 though I helped out in Stirling and Hasluck on the day.

    Those were of course in my kool-aid drinking days 😀

  8. [And has anyone noticed that this is the least presidential of any election recently?]

    Julia Gillard versus Chris Mitchell is difficult because Mitchell is not standing for any seat.

  9. Ryan please refreash my memory how did Kennett deal with deficits. o he sold assets and in reality if you are a true Liberal that is the sort of thing you should fully support

    There is no need to slash spending on this occasion for the nature of the debt is in result to a emergency that required urgent action and as that action washes though the economy and as revenue recovers along with the economy that deficit will disappear.

  10. [Julia Gillard versus Chris Mitchell is difficult because Mitchell is not standing for any seat.]

    I get the feeling that Mitchell would be a more formidable opponent than Abbott.

  11. Not with the Latham disaster under way Glen. 🙂

    I was on a booth in Hasluck that time, being hopefull till the end. 🙁

    Marging is important, but Alannah is the best candidate (for any party i think) to run in Canning for a long time.

    Hey, if i was in SA i’d be out and about in Sturt on the day. If the aLP win (reagrdless of seat #’s) , Alannah gets in, and Pyne gets the boot, a happy clapper i’ll be.

  12. [Kennett was dealing with deficits that a Labor government created you moron!]

    Ryan he prolly hasnt seen the bit on Fast Forward where ‘Joan Kirner’ is busking on the street outside Parliament tap dancing 😀

  13. Ryan – I am aware of the reasons why Kennett sold those asses and lets go back to your comment, you complained that Anna Blight is selling assess, well a true Liberal should actually be supportive of that for there are a number of Government related business that should be sold to the private sector.

  14. Glen – ha ha very true. people reckon the NSW Government is bad should have lived though the Kirner years.

    Poker dots anyone

  15. [Marging is important, but Alannah is the best candidate (for any party i think) to run in Canning for a long time]

    I cant argue with you there.

    Ok here’s a deal can the Libs have Hasluck if they give you Canning?

    Ken Wyatt for Jackson and Alannah for Don Randall?

    Fair swap I’d say and Parliament would be better for it 🙂

  16. Oh Yes The State Government is selling off all our assets furphy. I suppose your source for that would be National Party HQ too. Fact is it is not an asset sale as you suggest.

    Would the National Party sell off some trees on a 99 year lease and actually keep the land in the hands of tax payers?

    Would the National Party sell off the Mineral carrying rail system and keep the passenger service in taxpayer hands?

    Would National or Liberals ever tell the truth about the real nature of the asset sales?

  17. I am supportive of privatisation in principle.

    The point I was trying to make relates more to steve’s post trying to paint the Queensland Liberals as the ‘champions of debt and defecit’.

    steve’s champions are a lot closer to home.

  18. The point is simple the Liberal Party, once the campion of business and the middle class voted against programs that keep the economy working.

    The Liberals who come in here and waffle on about deficits and economics are bascially talking crap. The Gillard Government made mistakes as all Governemtns do but still its performance in keeping this country recession free is just outstanding.

    I don’t think it’s as straightforward as that. If the Liberals have demonstrated one thing for us under Abbott, it’s that you can’t take them at their word. They’ve proven that time and again. For about eight months now all they’ve done is scrabble around looking for things to say that might resonate with people. Doesn’t matter what it is, as long as it sounds good.

    That was the point of the PPL. And it was also the point of the adjustment to the PPL. That basically came about because they wanted to neutralise Labor’s 1% cut to business tax. So Abbott’s team fluffed around with the figures to try to get a business tax cut out there plus a PPL that they could present as costed. They’ve made a hash of that, but the principle which led them to it – “just say what the people want to hear” – is sound enough.

    They’re all memes. It’s pretty much all they have. They know that “Labor waste” is a powerful one, and they want to apply it to anything they can. Funny thing is, all this populism is pulling them both ways. They’re outspending Labor with their campaign promises, while still promising to bring the budget into surplus quicker than Labor, and stop the waste. They’re throwing their money around, while talking up their fiscal responsibility, which just shows that they can talk out both sides of their mouths at the same time.

    The point – before I lose my way entirely – is that I have no idea what they’d do if a GFC came along and they were in power. They may even do the right thing for all I know. In fact, given the success of Labor’s GFC response, the likeliest outcome would be for the Coalition to do almost exactly the same thing next time. I sure as hell don’t expect them to keep their campaign promises – I’m sure they all just see that as stuff to get them over the line. I’d be surprised if they believed any of it.

  19. Sorry Glen. Sharron is a mate of a mate of mine and she would kill me if i sorted that kind of deal. Besides, even though you are one of the most likeable Tories ive encountered i still want to see your (ex) party crushed like bugs this year. 🙂

    Night all.

  20. You are supportive of privitisation as a political weapon. Just another murkying of the waters by someone unable to explain just what the asset sales in Queensland are structured or what they are designed to achieve. Ignorance is the haulmark of Queensland Liberals on asset sales.

  21. Cossie at his best:

    [The most endearing thing about Abbott is that he does believe in a few things. He has convictions. I used to think Gillard believed in the things that turned her into a left-wing student activist, and if she had a chance she would act on them. But I am having doubts.

    It is possible she adopted those leftist policies then to get elected, just as she has adopted border protection now. It is possible she never believed in those left-wing causes either.

    So the good news is she may not be a rabid left-winger as prime minister. The depressing news is she doesn’t believe in much besides getting elected. That could explain why she is happy to delegate climate policy to people selected from the phone book. They might have a clearer idea of where the country should be heading.]

  22. [Alright, I’ve had my fun. Night.]

    Love it. They think it’s a badge of honour to come on here and dribble shit. They think they “pwned” us.

  23. [It’s very hard for the pwned to admit their pwning.]

    Indeed. But my comment was more in the direction about “how dull it is that debate has become like a footy match”

  24. Unlike you , i do understand from Morgans published 5 seats (dire) marginal polls (Flynn, Dawson , Longman , Page , Lindsay with Labor losing 4 of these 5) why Labor changed leaders , to not lose

    that was a hint what other marginal seats status also was

    one downside of change is whilst one can sell correction of where Labor ‘lost its way’ , its harder to show people that Govt’s overall results eg GFC is a total Govt credit because all cabinet and Caucus contribute usually in agreement anyway to an overall polisy slant and not just a former leeder alone as a dictator However if one says that people and Liberal adds then argue reverse point

    But thats due to peoples not undrstandin mechanics of Govt and influense if any on getting a Leader (with a kitchen cabinet only) t change from his wRONg way on one issue he thinks he is dead rite on and stated a position on like th CC change Kevin at end of day made that call , and then did so public

    Issues of a Leader decisions , kitchen cabinet he chairs , a cabenet , and a Caucus has many cross over lines that one cann’t explain to public This has made selling Labor’s ‘record’ harder

    But dont anyones kid themselcves that Liberals and MSN did not got numerous anti Kevin spin held back for an election campiagn if Kevin was still Leader , they did and starting with CC defer decision (Kevin’s quote great morale challenge) , and then with bats 4 deaths and fires , etc

    Julia is now onto ‘econamy as of its status rite now’ and needs to stay there , and pref WITH some damn TV adds That is much better than just saying elect us cause we saved youse from th GFC because for most Aussies there was no GFC , so there was no recesion

    Labor much better to win now with econamy (and W/C) as focus Hope no more leaks stuff as its done enuf damage

  25. More trouble for Tony’s PPL:

    Tracy Hart is expecting her second child in January next year.

    She was hoping that should the Coalition win the election she would have 26 weeks’ paid parental leave at her full salary of about $100,000 per year.

    Now she and her husband, Dorian are reconsidering their vote after Tony Abbott said the scheme would be delayed until July 2012.

    “If they brought their scheme in earlier, I would vote Liberal,” says Ms Hart, who is a 35-year-old sales manager.

    The Hart family knows how difficult it is to raise a baby with a single income. Ms Hart lost her $250,000-a-year job in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, 12 weeks after the birth of her first daughter. 

  26. Devastating – Abbott’s “no doesn’t mean no” gaffe will cost him dearly! I thought it was bad when read it but women are angry, shaking with rage. I didn’t want gender to determine this election however when you see the levity of “things that batter” and now ten years later this how can it not?

  27. LOL

    Coles CEO and Gerry Harvey both dismissed claims by Gillard that the PPL scheme by Abbott would push up prices for groceries and other consumer goods.

  28. No 3739

    Blah blah blah. The Government is stupid for thinking it knows Gerry Harvey’s business better than Gerry Harvey himself.

  29. Blah blah blah?

    Gerry is stupid for thinking he has lived in a poorly economically run country for the past few years. He hasn’t!

    Australia has been one of the best countries in the world for him to flog his 3D TV’s in.

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