Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, August 3, 2010 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    “Per cent of ads? About 20% over the past few days.”

    ta , am surprised its that high

  3. No Squiggle — a dog licks his balls because he can. Are you jealous?

    As I just sadi — I defy you to find a wise economic head in the coalition right now. Abbott/Robb/Hockey are like the 3 stooges. And Barnaby is the 4 th marx brother.

  4. Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, August 3, 2010 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    “GP is the eggsaggerator, par eggsellance. His eggsaggerations are eggstremely eggregious.”

    Addams english is improving under my mentoring

  6. By the way, housing construction figures and retail sales figures were released today. They both showed a SLOWING in the Australian economy.

    Why?

    Because the government stimulus is phasing out of the economy.

    The Liberals were arguing that the stimulus was too much. Well it turns out, judging by the current state of the economy, the inflation rate, and the interest rate, that it was right.

  7. Squiggle,

    So Ken Henry and Glenn Stevens have approved the Governments approach , the world of economists laud Australia’s actions as the best model to tackle the GFC and there is not a credible economist that disagrees.

    So, who do we believe. An economic illiterate like your self or people who actually understand what’s going on.

  10. What’s wrong with Warren Entsch and his corflutes. Right throughout the electorate of Leichardt wherever there is a Labor ,Green, or Independent corflute the National Party has two, side by side. It is the most bizarre thing I have seen in the campaign beside Squiggle quoting the “Divine right to rule” for the Rabbot. But seriously why would the Tory think that this tactic would work better than the sitting member having one photo of himself for every two of the National Party Candidate.

  11. Centre

    we need someone from the housing industry on here

    the housing sector is ver confusing, in some ways

    i know of peeps who own 10-15 props

    yet they for stat purposes are considered as 1 house?

    also the flat/unit market seems to be skewhiff

  12. [a dog licks his balls because he can. Are you jealous?]

    Insanely so, o-my-word-yes

    I’d be very confident with Robb in Finance or treasury, Hockey also.

    Tone would need to take advice from the other two for me to feel confident

  16. [So Ken Henry and Glenn Stevens have approved the Governments approach]

    No they haven’t, they have both endorsed a loose fiscal policy during the crisis, and most economists would agree with them

    I have not seen either Henry or Stevens endorse the ALP policy of pink batt programs, school halls, cash splash etc, or the level of spending.

    However, I agree they have endorsed the direction of the spending and the looser fiscal policy at the time of crisis

  17. [I’d be very confident with Robb in Finance or treasury, Hockey also. ]

    Sorry — nothing wither have said since losing power has given me any confidence that I should hand over my tax dollars for them to play with.

  19. Scorpio, you’re clutching at straws. To argue that Labor manage money better is difficult. They are addicted to spending our money and hocking us with debt. Not only federally, but in every state too.

    Most Labor supporters are comfortable enough with the social dividends paid by accruing government debt. You seem to want to push this argument that somehow going into debt and running up huge deficits make Labor great economic managers. Unfortunately it doesn’t work both ways, champion.

    It just makes you look like an idiot.

  21. Oh late night headache, why do you hurt me so?

    So how are the betting odds going? A little birdy told me there was an ever so slight move back to the government but it could just be a blip.

  22. Interesting – ALP‘s Website has 2 transcripts of Tanya Plibersek from Today – while the most recent one on the LIb’s is Abbott’s on the PPL on Steve Price’s Show on the 28th July.

    Are the Libs still relying on trained monkeys to transcribe the Wax Cylindar ?

  23. [I wonder, if you got Abboot to hold a gun, would he point it at his face to try and see if its loaded??]

    I nearly wet my pants! Had to explain all the meails to my OH because I was cracking up so much!!!!

  31. [ALP policy of pink batt programs, school halls, cash splash etc,]

    That fact that you use these dishonest Liberal catch-phrases tells us where you are coming from. The HIS was an outstanding success, insulating a million homes with a safety record 10 times better than under the Liberals. Rudd’s abandonment of it and his sell-out of Garrett in the face of News Ltd bullying was the first step in his downfall. The BER has built many more classrooms than school halls, but even if it had been all school halls it would have been a great program, saving thousands of small businesses from ruin. The “cash splash” was the Liberal slogan for the stimpacs which saved the Australian economy from recession.

  34. Ryan, all the Liberal National Party spending and promises is still uncosted pie in the sky back of an envelope guestimate that has still not been submitted to Treasury as part of the Charter of Budget Honesty.

  36. So Ryan, if you had important bills to pay (like food bill to feed your kids) and you didn’t have the money on hand you’d rather go to jail than use your credit card?

    And you can’t beg off your neighbours because they have even less than you.

    That is the essence of the predicament we were in. The govt. rightly used the credit card.

    But most importantly, they sensible found ways to use the credit card that would achieve other outcomes to benefit the country ‘long-term’ at the same time. Infrastructure. Much needed upgrades — school buildings that generate extra income for schools into the future. And yes insulating 1000000 homes, that pleased 99% of the punters who had it done and will save our climate in a small way.

    Not something Costello would have done. Not something anyone on the current oppo benches would have done either.

  40. [
    Big business savages Abbott’s parental leave plan
    LUCY BATTERSBY AND MICHELLE GRATTAN
    August 4, 2010

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    BUSINESS has savaged Tony Abbot’s revamped parental leave scheme, as the Opposition Leader refused to say when he would lift the new tax to pay for his centrepiece election promise.

    Mr Abbott said he would reduce the levy on thousands of companies from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 cent. But this was dismissed by the Business Council of Australia, which represents the country’s largest corporations. ”This is policy on the run and it shows,” it said.

    The Coalition is imposing what it describes as a temporary levy on large companies to pay for the scheme, which is worth up to $75,000, but Mr Abbott was unable to say when this would be lifted
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    ”I want it to be temporary, but because of the dire fiscal position that this government has put us in I’m just not going to put a timetable on it,” he said.

    In March, Mr Abbott’s deputy Julie Bishop suggested the levy could be scrapped once the budget returns to surplus.

    The scheme is vastly more generous than Labor’s, but has put the Coalition offside with its traditional allies in the business community and prompted warnings that it will force up the prices of consumer products.

    The Victorian Employers’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry said yesterday’s changes would not reduce the impact on employers and accused the Coalition of not fudging on its policies.

    It also rejected any notion that the burden was merely a levy. “If it looks like a tax, and walks like a tax, then it is a tax,” said manager of workplace relations policy Alexandra Marriott.

    She also called on the Coalition ”to be clear with business about all of its proposed policies – something that has been lacking up until now”.

    The revised cost of the scheme will be $3.1 billion in its first year almost all coming from business. This compares with an initial estimate of $2.7 billion.

    Under an Abbott government, Labor’s more modest scheme – 18 weeks at minimum pay – would go ahead as planned, until its own scheme – 26 weeks on the mother’s full pay – starts 18 months later.

    The clash over parental leave came as Prime Minister Julia Gillard focussed her campaigning on the economy. She received welcome news on that front when the Reserve Bank held interest rates steady – sparing her the hike that befell John Howard in the 2007 campaign – although housing and retail sales figures released yesterday were flat.

    Labor’s charge that the parental leave tax could have an inflationary effect was backed by the National Retailers Association. Chief executive Margy Osmondsaid retailers were still recovering from the financial crisis and increased wages and any additional costs ”may result in price rises in the future”.’]

    Enough said.

  41. Canning is the south metro seat currently held by Don Randal on about 4.3% i think. Big seat and takes in Mandurah in the south.

    Reckon it will go to the ALP as Alannah McTiernan is a very stong candidate with a high local profile in a positive way from her days as transport minister in the atate ALP. She got the Perth – Mandurah rail line built in the face of a lot of flak from the state Fiberals, and the new Forest highway (a big bypass basically) has recently opened that has gone a ways to abating traffic congestion in the area.

  43. Anyway those blokes in WA rrobably know abbott will bring back workchoices

    I mean no boss would slash jobs by 15% would they

    only dingos do that

    (or the mining Co’s in 2007)

    gee WA is fertile ground

  44. While you’re here Ryan why did the Nationals have to take over the Cash strapped and broke Queensland Liberal Party after all the nonsense we heard from the Liberals about good economic management?

  47. Red Red asked Julia tonite seeing econamy is so good , why do Lobs get better ratings

    I think Polls ask Q too generically
    Q should be who would you rather get running econamy rite now

    On that , I think Julia getting narative away from leaks and onto econamy as of rite now’ gets people thinking well do i got a job now , is intrest rates reasonable ok rite now etc and these do cause vote positive decisions voters do vote on ,
    and not wishy washy feel good issues We sure on track to reverse polls with this focus * I think it will succeed (then W/C will keep on giving)

  50. I am starting to feel sorry for the Liberals in here, holding on so tightly to the view that the Gillard ALP Government wasted money recklessly.

    Tonight I was watching a business news show on CNBC or Bloomberg and a senior American financial person said that in hindslight the sitmulas in that country shoudl have been bigger.

    The point is simple the Liberal Party, once the campion of business and the middle class voted against programs that keep the economy working.

    The Liberals who come in here and waffle on about deficits and economics are bascially talking crap. The Gillard Government made mistakes as all Governemtns do but still its performance in keeping this country recession free is just outstanding.

    I cannot recall an ALP Governmetn that ahs ever managed the economy better tha this government has and I say this in regards to debt, find me one company amounst the ASX 200 that is debt free, I suspect you wont be posting for a while for there are no such thing as a debt free company and if you Liberals do not understand the basci functionmentials of economics and business accounting then I hold very little respect in your ability to manage money.

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