Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. I noticed an ALP ad on TV this evening that ended with “You can’t trust Tony Abbott on Workchoices!”. I think the ALP should make another add with someone, as I did, watching the add. As soon as they say, “You can’t trust Tony Abbott on Workchoices!”, the camera should pan out to the viewer, who is standing with a cup of coffee in her hand and would exclaim, or say quietly to herself, as I did, “You can’t trust Tony Abbott on anything!”

  2. Aguirre – if Gillard and co. cannot defeat Abbott, Hockey and Robb then they are not up to it, I’m afraid. I still think they will, but if they don’t, they don’t deserve it.

  3. fredn
    JG is so far a mere gangsters’ moll (as was Rudd when he acceded to the dumping of the ETS). She needs to jump out of the metaphorical limo at the next traffic lights, run to a stage somewhere and belt out a big brassy number on her own.

  6. Aguirre,

    All the way through, this election had been labor v the MSM.

    The Libs are just the hangers-on that get in the road of the real Opposition and cause them odd moments of grief from time to time, that they have to quickly clean up.

    The voters will see through the mirage that’s currently before their eyes. Once the scales are removed and the pencil is in their shaking hands with the choice before them, Howard’s faith in the innate common sense of the Australian voting public will really be put to the test.

  7. SBS news headlines tonight mentioned the Greens’ Campaign Launch by showing an excerpt from Bob Brown’s speech where he says, (wtte) “If you’re going to say “Move Forward”, you’ve got to say where you’re moving forward to.”

    Of course what SBS and Karen Middleton failed to show was that Bob Brown went on to say, (wtte) “If you’re going to take ‘Direct Action’ you’ve got to tell us what it’s going to cost” etc.

  8. jaundice view

    I agree, is she a NSW right patsy? We won’t know until after the election, I’m willing to wait to find out, but are over 50% of the voters. That is Labors problem at the moment.

  10. With Newspoll figures we dont yet know vital primarys , and in any event 50/50 tells us nothing , zero , becuase Election will be decided in 25 deemed marginal seats anyway

    we dont even got State breakups from Newspoll & Gallaxy with enuf sample sizes over time since Julia took over for a state trend As repeatedd , peoples need to ignore useless PPM fashion parade figures

    what we do KNOW is if Labor had adopted Greens CC approach we’d get 10% POV , and not approx 40% !!!! given Labors primary loss has gone Liberels and not to Greens
    Therefore making any j/v type post lacking any politcal nouse

    What last week has also proved , seein its been Leaks dominated but with such leaks then twisted into anti Julia lies re pensions and PPL , is power of 4th Estate to influense voters….especialy because neither Julia nor Tonys issues positions got little oxogen yet Polls did move

    I remain very confident of victory in absence of marginal info , based on overal factors that sway peoples being of Labors reforms in BER , hospital , NBN and being anti W/C

  14. Transcripts of Claire Harvey’s interview with Downer.
    Not quite as was represented in the article, and obviously pure cowdung.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/full-transcript-of-downers-rudd-interview/story-fn5zm695-1225899657139

    Alexander Downer: I was thinking also, about – He was so incredibly unprincipled. When he was chairman of the caucus committee, it reminds me, we used to use him mercilessly to embarrass Laurie Brereton. I mean, he was quite happy to – Laurie Brereton was – whatever, I don’t know, you like or didn’t like Laurie Brereton – personally I think Laurie Brereton’s a very competent and funny operator.

    But Rudd was happy to humiliate and embarrass him. We would give Rudd information to use against Brereton, and he would use it.

    Claire Harvey: Mmm, mmm, so you would give him something and it would appear in Laurie Oakes’ column, or -?

    Alexander Downer: Absolutely. I don’t think it was particularly Laurie Oakes because – we all know that he was close to Laurie, he cleaned his carpet or whatever in 1970.

    And I think I remember Downer sniggeringly telling us on 4 Corners or a similar program, that they (wtte) “just towed the boats out of Australian waters and sent them back.”

  15. Ecosse@102

    This might be interesting.
    http://tinyurl.com/2a6j5ww
    Let Julia be Julia.

    From the article:

    ‘But she said she was now sidelining campaign bosses.”I do believe people are right to worry that modern campaigning is too managed and too tightly scripted,” she said.”I’m not Doris Day – I’m not naive about this – but I will be taking more direct control of the campaign from here.” ‘

    To be sure, to be sure, and other expressions of suspended belief.

  16. We’ve had Latham, Rudd, Hawke, and now Downer raise their heads. Even Costello popped up in week 1 of the campaign. The one former leader MIA is Howard….

    Will the Libs bring him out in the next week or so as a ‘clincher’?

  17. So, does this mean the 52-48 Liberal poll wasn’t for real? I really hope Labor can put this one away because after looking at Howard for 11 years I don’t think I’ll be able to look at Abbott for too much longer.

  18. JV,

    [‘But she said she was now sidelining campaign bosses.”I do believe people are right to worry that modern campaigning is too managed and too tightly scripted,” she said.”I’m not Doris Day – I’m not naive about this – but I will be taking more direct control of the campaign from here.” ]

    Maybe Julia reads PB! 😉

  19. Webbeauughhhhhhrrrrr wins in Hungary!!

    Advance Australia Fair plays on speakers in Budapest, and echoes around the world

    fiftieeeeeee – fiftiieeeeeee in newspoll, ALP backstabbing scum reaping their own whirlwind

    Everything is right with the world, o what a good night

  20. scorpio@117

    JV,

    ‘But she said she was now sidelining campaign bosses.”I do believe people are right to worry that modern campaigning is too managed and too tightly scripted,” she said.”I’m not Doris Day – I’m not naive about this – but I will be taking more direct control of the campaign from here.”

    Maybe Julia reads PB!

    Yes, but I’m not sure if this change of tack should have been announced without Psephos being here. 😆

  21. The thing about the Real Julia strategy is it could go both ways.

    On one hand, it could revitalise the campaign and make her seem like the “comeback kid” – a cliche the media love. On the other hand, we could see the media frame it as a dead in the water leader desperately trying anything to stay alive.

    This week will be pivotal.

  22. brisoz
    Posted Monday, August 2, 2010 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    “@Ron/108, I think Labor needs to focus on Infrastructure ads, NBN, Rail, Hospitals etc.”

    plus as i said BER and anti W/C

    Because I do beleive Labor can not rely on MSN for ANY Labor polisys headlines , its TV adds is it

    Threrefoe in additon to my suggstions , i’d go for 3 approachs that Labor wont take , why i dont know

    1/ Julia campiagning wITH Kevin public a few times in Griffith

    2/ Julia announsing that AFTER gettindg feedback from her 150 CC assemby feedback AND ex her OZ CC Experts cience Panel , that if consenus she will try to negotiate a reasonablr price on Carbon when Senate numbers change July 2011 , by talking to BOTH Liberals and Greens who each likely to get Senate BOP

    this is important to show Govt is serous about CC , and stands for it

    3/ TV adds showing JUST th words of Econamics Lauriet (and an adviser to both POTUS Clinton & Obama) of Prof Stigler , saying to 7.30 Report:

    …’ oz Govr had th best GV Stimili in world and got best GFC result in lowest unemploy , highest growth and lowest Debt to GDP figures ‘

    i say just his words as vision may not be allowed , but if ok show visual as well

  25. I’m off to bed and a sound night’s sleep!

    Labor’s going to cruise home from here.

    My money is on at a cool $1.50 and life is sweet.

    What can go wrong from here from here from here from here from here from here from here from here from here from here………………………………………………………………

    Night all! 😉

  26. 118
    Mr Squiggle
    Posted Monday, August 2, 2010 at 12:18 am | Permalink
    Webbeauughhhhhhrrrrr wins in Hungary!!

    Advance Australia Fair plays on speakers in Budapest, and echoes around the world

    fiftieeeeeee – fiftiieeeeeee in newspoll, ALP backstabbing scum reaping their own whirlwind

    Everything is right with the world, o what a good night

    …….

    Yes a great win after vettel given a drive through penalty. Big call by JG taking charge. First real sign of panic by her.

  28. 52-48 and 50-50 which one is closest to the truth? Is 50-50 on the end of MOE or 52-48?

    More polls needed to confirm just where the centre of reality is.

    IMO JGillard won’t get the full incumbency effect, if any, since she is basically a new candidate with Abbott vying for the top job. So she will need to have some sort of lead before polling day.

    I think it is pretty obvious that the knifing of Rudd was extremely stupid from any number of angles. JGillard is barely up to the job and is struggling as a leader. Time will save her in the end.

    Abbott has wasted his opportunity I believe. Bringing Turnbull in as shadow Treasurer would have gotten them over the line, looking at these current polls. They at the end of the day still have that credibility gap.

  32. Here’s a look at the style of thing we have to look forward to Federally now the NSW mafia has taken over the party:

    Keneally rivals shut out of car project
    The electric car company associated with the husband of the Premier, Kristina Keneally, was exclusively invited to participate in a bid for a recharging network trial by the state-owned EnergyAustralia, which did not approach its competitors.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/keneally-rivals-shut-out-of-car-project-20100801-111ez.html

    A beat up I’m sure, but gee there are a jolly lot of them.

  35. GhostWhoVotes@131

    The Newspoll primary votes are ALP 37 LNP 44.

    The Australian: Tony Abbott boost puts poll at 50-50

    thanks. Now they should change the Murdoch headline about the TPP meaning Labor will be ‘desperate’ for Green preferences. It should now read that Labor is desperate for green preferences because the primary vote remains tanked. That would be correct at last.

  37. “First real sign of panic by her.”

    Hmm, wouldnt be calling it a sign of panic. On the couple of occasions she has cut loose a bit, the feedback on the blogosphere and even in the MSM has been fairly positive.

    Also, i have a sneaking suspicion that she may have learned a lesson from the Debate last week.

    To me, she seemed very stilted and constrained. Both Julia G and Abboott pretty much played it the same way, make no errors. Now that “scripted” constrained format suited Abboott because he really doesnt think on his feet well and seems to find it difficult to engage in real time. So, in a tightly scripted, managed situation Abboot does relativle well.

    Ive always seen Julia G’s forte as as being something more like a QT, questions without notice format where things flow and she has to think on her feet. That seems to be where she excels and she seems to, maybe be moving the campaign more to that format.

    There is a risk in that, but if anyone can reasonably manage that risk it would be Julia.

    It may also give her much more latitude to take on the media. With this kind of “risk flagged” campaign in the offing the media are much more likely to be listening to what SHE is saying and report that more.

    The “Story” may well turn out to be how badly Tony Abbott handles this different type of campaign. If Julia is giving them something that flows and moves, and Tony is still doing the boring, scripted stuff, the sympathy of the media pack may shift away from giving Tone’s such an easy ride.

    Typical woman trick. If your not winning the game, change the rules on the bloke involved. 🙂

    Go Girl Go!!!

  38. “I think it is pretty obvious that the knifing of Rudd was extremely stupid from any number of angles.”

    Yes, TP: and if she scrapes home (as I expect her to) it will be *despite* the coup. At this point, I think everyone has to concede it hasn’t worked to plan. Victory – if it comes – will be no vindication. Merely an escape.

    But that must be put behind us at this point.

    Keep calm: remember that Howard – for all intents and purposes – lost the 98 election, and was only returned owing to the artifices of our non-proportional system.

    Its hard to win after the first term – so this is no surprise, and meant of verities of “Australia never kicks out first termers” are a largely accidental heritage, not some law: because the old political culture is still fresh.

    My point here is this was always going to be tough – the ALP hasnt helped itself but , the next one will be easier.

    The ALP just has to hang tough here: bring out the GFC ads. The ALP will win if they do – and lose if they dont.

    Swallow your pride – raise the banner of the Rudd legacy on the GFC. And remind people how borderline barking Tony Weathervane is.

    Do it – or lose.

    Dont be asking the question later: “should we have run on our record?”. The answer is ‘f-ck yes!’.

  39. @jaundiced view/132, if Coalition wasn’t so desperate in attacking rudd and now Gillard, they would be in the same position.

  40. jaundiced view
    Posted Sunday, August 1, 2010 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    “JG is so far a mere gangsters’ MOLL ”

    you got scum bag decency standards ,

    ie even below th gutter

  41. [Swallow your pride – raise the banner of the Rudd legacy on the GFC.]

    Which could also be argued to be Swan’s legacy…

  42. I say panic because it is the rudd leaks and blowback from the change of leader which is the problem, not the campaign as such. To make such a change gives Abbott even more ammunition to claim her campaign is a shambles and, accordingly, so would a future gillard government. A bad start to week three.

  45. Putting the last two polls together this really is a huge downturn for Labor.
    And yet the hacks here continue to decry any strong policy from Gillard to try to turn things around. They won’t turn around by themselves.

    Now she’s taken over, will she dump the ‘no policies’ policy? She’d better. This is a big week. I hope she’s on the phone to Professor Garnaut right now.
    Otherwise it’s sit tight and hope. Great strategy.

  47. [Which could also be argued to be Swan’s legacy…]

    Rudd’s call to go with what Henry suggested, then the team manipulated to suit their own electoral ends.

    It is basically 100% Rudd’s baby. He is the one that makes the brave call to do all this stuff when the public were still thinking what GFC. If he got wrong.

  48. The Greens primary vote is 12%.

    The Australian: The Greens are on centre stage

    It seems if Ms Gillard wins, she will owe it to the Greens. But even if Mr Abbott is elected in spite of them, he will have to deal with the Greens, who are expected to hold the balance of power in the Senate — with Newspoll putting their lower house vote at 12 per cent, up by a third from the 2007 election, the Greens are on a roll.

  49. “Which could also be argued to be Swan’s legacy…”

    precisely, TSOP. So where’s the problem?

    Some one please answer this, cos Im stumped: What part of the “its the economy, stupid” doesnt the ALP campaign team get?

    Its the economy, stupid. And its policies, not slogans.

  50. Imacca I agree with your point re question time. Problem is that there are no more debates this election unless Julia changes her mind on that one. Which of course would be another sign of panic. Abott can sit back behind his script and one liners which are his forte. Another stupid decision reallly by the ALP campaign. Given JG is the better debater they should have had three debates.

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