Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.
We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:
Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.
On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.
Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.
However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.
What are the primaries? and are everyone else’s gravatars broken or just my laptop?
The two elements of the above do not make sense to me. How does a drop in the two party preferred vote mean that the dependence on green preferences is any greater?
Doesn’t that dependence derive purely from a low primary vote? The Greens preferences are already built in to the two party vote figures. Or am I missing something?
evan14: I think Tone’s about to be exposed. I’m encouraged by the emergence of QT Julia in the campaign. Just remember: Tone is incredibly shaky on details, esp budget details. Labor have already started blowtorching his policies, and going on the attack. As others have said, expect a much better week this week.
I don’t think Labor scare ads have anywhere near the effect of Liberal.
“abbott will bring back work choices” doesn’t have the same impact as
“Julie wasted school money and Julie’s pink bats burned houses”
I especially liked Julia’s attack today re: Abetz being locked in a dark room because they are afraid he will spill on WorkChoices
Luxbet now offfers odds of 1.55 for ALP win while
Centrebet still gives 3.6 for Coalition win.
So you can guarantee a profit whoever wins.
Eg, say that you can spend $300.
Put $200 on ALP to win with Luxbet.
Put $100 on Coalition to win with Centrebet.
If ALP win you get $310 from Luxbet.
If Coalition win you get $360 from Centrebet.
(But maybe you lose your money if there is
hung parliament.)
Gillard will win. And, like Howard, her greatest strength will be winning in such a mediocre fashion against such a git (cf Howard over the atrocious Latham in ’04) that people will believe that only she could have done it.
Re the BER — we are about to get the umpire’s verdict on that too.
Like the interest rates — I am expecting that to give the govt momentum.
You’d hope Labor has a far better week, assuming Oakes or Hartcher aren’t fed any more leaks.
Good night all, sleep well! 🙂
[Yes I do, but I’ve also been cursed with an extremely retentive memory for trivia of that type. It tends to crowd out more useful information, like where my keys are.]
So, for any PB’er who finds themselves appearing on one of those Who wants to be a Millionare type TV quiz shows, line up Psephos for the phone a friend segment!
I’ll bet he’s in demand for quiz nights.
If Abbott gets another good run this week, the momentum will be hard to stop. I’m no expert in these things, just a life long labor voter who can’t stand the thought of an Abbott Government.
Labor needs to get all the troops out and hitting their marks this week.
*exit stage (NSW) right*
[I don’t think Labor scare ads have anywhere near the effect of Liberal.
“abbott will bring back work choices” doesn’t have the same impact as
“Julie wasted school money and Julie’s pink bats burned houses”]
ifonly, I have to agree with you there.
I’ve just been looking at the online versions of all advertisements, and the ALP ones seem pretty lightweight in my opinion.
Yep, bedtime folks.
We won’t get the Newspoll breakdown until tomorrow so will get some zzzzzs while waiting.
Psephos@44
For the umpteenth time, that is not the issue. Who cares that Rudd was knifed? The Arbib/Bitar/Farrell/Feeney/Shorten failures start with the dumping of an ETS into a pit in April, continuing into the ‘clearing the decks’ strategy – no policies – after Gillard’s ascension, such as the capitulation on the mining tax (thanks guys); the covering over of the ETS in its pit; and the lurch to the right on refugees. Now there is these idiots’ collective baleful refusal to get on the front foot and take hold of the election agenda with a bold ETS policy with the Greens. They are the NSW dumb-arses on valium.
Usually I would say “all of those Laborites trying to find good news in a bad poll”.
But this time, this isn’t as bad as it could be. The worst week they could possibly ask for brings a 50-50, but Gillard ahead 15 points on Abbott. Basically now, Labor can’t win the election on policy – the people don’t like them all that much – but can win on the leader. Which we knew 2 weeks ago!
If we see a trend back towards Gillard by this time next week – even a 51-49 TPP but a couple of points up as PPM – she has it in the bag.
Psephos@44 It may be as you say, but rightly or wrongly NSW Labor has a very bad reputation and some of us feel alarmed that they might take federal Labor down the same path.
Personally, I think Gillard should have just said something like “Look, I really wanted to be Prime Minister. I had the numbers and Kevin Rudd did not. One day I won’t have the numbers. That’s the reality of the situation.” People are adults, they understand ambition.
[If Abbott gets another good run this week]
no-tone, Not much you or I or the ALP can do if the media give him an armchair ride. I’m hoping like crazy that the playing field is made level again as Labor would win by a two lengths if it were so.
I wonder if the 50/35 lead that Julia G has over Abboot will have much significance come polling day, when people are actually having to make their pick?
If nothing else i’d say it points to Abboott’s mob being vulnerable if the ALP can pick up thier campaign momentum.
jv @ 65
If Labor followed all of you good advice they receive about 10 or 12% of the vote – just like the greens.
No thanks.
JV the ALP voters have not moved to the Greens. They have moved
to the Liberals. The left have to address the middle ground.
night all
That sound you can hear is the glasses being clinked together in the Murdoch election war room. Victory is within our grasp they cry as each toast is met with a refilling of the glasses!
Mark Scott & Co are also celebrating the latest Newspoll in the ABC Board room and crediting the new 24 hour channel for its successful hauling back of Labor’s lead!
I hope the bastards wake up with a stinking hangover in the morning.;-)
Enjoy it while you can, guys, because we are coming baaaack!
@imacca/69, just under 3 weeks to go to find out…
Night Tom.
Dr Good@71
Yes, that’s as may be, but the point in the article is a non-sequitur to me, because they are talking about the lower TPP vote for Labor meaning the party is now desperate for Green preferences, when the green preferences are already factored into the TPP figures in the first place. Surely they mean Labor is ‘desperate’ for higher primary vote figures?
Maybe it’s just me. 😆
Sportingbet. A big move.
Labor
1.50
Coalition
2.50
Evidently Arbib is furiously telling anyone who will listen that dumping Rudd wasn’t his doing. Sadly it’s only Psephos who believes him, and he’s probably just saying what he’s paid to say.
Well it’s like the Grand Final and it’s all tied up at half time.
The momentum has been with the Libs but Labor kicked a goal on the siren to square things up. The third quarter is called the premiership quarter.
scorpio
Labor at $1.55 now on the only direct and pure market, Betfair. Libs at $2.78.
Let’s not place too much stock in the “preferred leader” beauty contest. It’s often irrelevant to the final result (and I think Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner, Wayne Goss, Rob Kerin, John Fahey, Jeff Kennett and Alan Carpenter would all back me up on that point!)
Well I finally got my $1.50 for Labor with Sportingbet and stuck a lazy ton on.
Now all I need is for Julia Gillard to live up to the promise that has been vested in her to deliver the goods on August 21!
Tom Hawkins@70
Are you kidding? With 60% of the population crying out for leadership on carbon pollution you people refuse to do anything. You party guys have serious problems in changing your mindset.
Ah, don’t tell me – “B..b…b…but we can’t lead then people, the awful Mr Abbott will say it’s a b..b….b..b..big tax and scare them all off. And us ….”
JV
From the Australian: “The Gillard Government would now desperately depend on Greens’ preferences to hold power”
I agree that this is utter crap writing. Who knows what it means, let alone how it
could be deduced from the poll situation.
Regardless of who you support- at least this election is exciting!
Anyone who can let Tony Abbott get this close needs to really lift their game and people need to start complaining about the lies in the ads.
There is not an $8 billion waste in the BER and the insulation does not have 240,000 homes in danger and there are no frigging illegal immigrants.
What is wrong with our AEC and minders that they let this drivel pass as “advertisements.
I want someone though to ask Loughnane why he bangs on about it when he has spent the last 9 years denying that the TAMPA had anything to do with the 2001 election.
scorpio
You just missed out on an extra $5 for your ton. That’s a schooner and a half at my club.
[Regardless of who you support- at least this election is exciting!]
You are the first person I have heard utter those words! 😆
http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7938106
Oaks interveiwing TA,lol.
Game On:
[JULIA Gillard will today unleash the “real Julia”, discarding a safe campaign approach to personally seize control of her battle for The Lodge.
In an exclusive interview with the Herald Sun, the Prime Minister revealed she would also unveil a radical plan for “principal power”, giving school heads a greater say over their budget and the power to hire teachers.
She said she was “absolutely ready for a fight” against education unions and the states.
The PM declared she was now the “underdog” after the second week of the campaign saw Labor derailed by damaging leaks and a plunge in the opinion polls.
“I think it’s time for me to make sure that the real Julia is well and truly on display,” she said.
“So I’m going to step up and take personal charge of what we do in the campaign from this point,” Ms Gillard told the Herald Sun, in an interview aboard her VIP jet.
She said the mid-campaign tactical switch was due to her worry that Opposition Leader Tony Abbott could “slip into the prime ministership by default, because people look at our campaign and focus on the distractions”.
Ms Gillard admitted she had “learned a lesson” to be “absolutely real to yourself” and would change her heavily criticised campaign style. She will spend far more time with voters.
“I’m going to discard all of that campaign advice and professional or common wisdom, and just go for it,” she said.
“People should expect to see a different style of campaigning from this point.
“I want to make sure that I am well and truly out there with Australians, talking to them directly about the issues that concern them.”]
1http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/julia-gillard-vows-to-take-control-of-her-election-campaign/story-fn5ko0pw-1225899749875
@jv, the problem with you is that there was leadership in under Labor, but it failed because of Politicians, not because of lack of leadership on climate change.
Dr Good@82
They have polling experts at Murdoch – can’t they get them to vet the stuff churned out on polls first to avoid howlers?
I don’t believe that as a collective group we are mad enough with the NSW right to forget that the Liberals are ran by a bigger bunch of nutters. And JG is ok.
Still think it’s going to be 80+ to labor.
I don’t believe that as a collective group we are mad enough with the NSW right to forget that the Liberals are ran by a bigger bunch of nutters. And JG is ok.
Still think it’s going to be 80+ to labor.
scorio
$1.56 now available Labor. Better get a bit more of it. 😆
Ed @ 87
Yep, but check out how it was reported in the SMH
http://tinyurl.com/39xyswy
Let’s just hope there isn’t another leak. If there another leak this week, Labor are toast.
jaundiced view,
[scorpio
You just missed out on an extra $5 for your ton. That’s a schooner and a half at my club.]
The good guys win on the 21st, there will be enough winnings to buy enough schooners to see me off to a sound sleep! 😉
I look on it as an omen because Sportingbet has doggedly refused to get to that magic $1.50 mark for me.
I vowed not to place that bet until they did because my waters told me that it would be a fleeting, short lived peak for Labor and it will drop like a stone from here on in.
The odds have blown out for Labor in the Qld marginals now too. I was too quick with a couple of bets but those odds will probably drop once the Ruddster gets back on his feet and gets working the swingers in those seats.
You heard it all here folks! 😉
Audio of Julia’s Comments to the Hun:
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/08/01/1225899/749508-gillard-vows-to-take-control-of-campaign.mp3
Haven’t been able to pay a lot of attention over the past couple of days, but when I do come across a news report, this is what I hear:
Defence force dental announcement, or whatever that was: can’t afford more, Labor waste and incompetence, blah blah blah.
Superannuation announcement: bad idea, the only way to make superannuation viable is a strong economy and less of Labor’s debt, and less incompetence blah blah blah.
In fact, any Labor announcement is met with: incompetence, debt, waste, blah blah blah. It’s lowest common denominator stuff, but it works, and it’s going to be very hard for Labor to counter it. This is in part because any Labor criticism of the Liberals bounces off and into the ether. You can say what you like, nobody’s going to report it.
Abbott and his team have abandoned any pretence of policy formation at all, and I doubt we’ll be hearing anything much in that area from now on. They have their policy worked out – Labor is incompetent and wasteful. That is the entire platform. And this from the party that couldn’t even put together a budget reply that added up. You have to wonder what’s going on when a government that’s made the odd mistake is being headed by an opposition that can’t get anything right at all.
I still think people will tune out eventually. There’s going to be a “oh come on, Labor can’t be all bad; what have you got by the way?” reaction at some stage. The Liberals have become totally lazy lately.
fredn@91
Hmm. Some truth in that. But the choice between the Inquisitors and the Cosa Nostra is not a happy one to confront really. 😆
@Ecosse/93,
lol he’s match making policies now.
“He received a round of applause as he promised to match Labor’s spending commitment for aged care.”
If he can do that for Aged Care, what about Broadband/Telco Policies?