Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.
UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.
confessions – no one knows yet.
Evan14
you are still an idiot
yesterday/last night really showed the cut of your cloth
[Fortunately for the ALP, journos and citizens have given little airtime to this but there were many, many ways to stimulate the economy far more simply, cheaply and broadly, but if you have to do it, why not shore up votes, hey?]
Like what?
[TSOP
pseph passed the ring of fire
his restraint and probity merits a clear distinction
Of course he came with the highest reference one could recieve]
Pseph is seriously one of the Gods of Olympus around here. I can always trust him to calm the smeg out of all of us here. I don’t care that he’s a “hack” his words of authority can soothe even this weary soul…
but (re: the “something something…”) can you blame me for making a Family Guy reference? 😉
[Fortunately for the ALP, journos and citizens have given little airtime to this but there were many, many ways to stimulate the economy far more simply, cheaply and broadly, but if you have to do it, why not shore up votes, hey?]
No worries, Mick. We all know that if Howard was in charge, any stimulus package that literally kept the country out of recession would be hailed as God-like. 240 complaints out of 24,000? Bah, that’s nothing, because Johnny and Pete saved us again!!!
The best Mick can manage in response to the protection of Australian jobs is a rant about unions.
There may very well have been better ways to stimulate the economy, but only 1 party came up with and implemented such a stimulus package whilst the other party said ‘wait and see’ and then ‘no’.
[Centrebet odds for Bennelong:
Maxine 1.34
John Alexander 3.00]
Awww! But he played tennis so well. Doesn’t that count for anything?
TSOP
LOL
Now is the time for all good men/women to come to the aid of the party.
Centrebet odds for all seats, in summary:
Labor behind in QLD marginals of Flynn/Dawson/Hebert/Leichhardt, but ahead in Blair/Bonner/Forde/Moreton, & Dickson is line ball(1.80 each)
Labor OK in NSW marginals, only Robertson really looking like a loss, Hughes and Macarthur are line ball.
VIC AND TAS look good, no losses, and odds favouring Labor to win McEwen.
Status quo in SA – they haven’t yet factored in latest polls in Sturt and Boothby.
WA – Hasluck line ball, no other likely pick ups for Labor.
Having John Alexander running in Bennelong as a “celebrity candidate” is up there with Cornes in Boothby.
John Alexander was one of their dumber preselection decisions – looks like Maxine will up her majority. 🙂
@Mick Wilkinson/1899,
On what proof can you justify “More cheaply” to provide jobs, Here is a fact, creating jobs and paying people to do them isn’t CHEAP. Policies like the NBN is expected to create 25k a year in jobs for 8-10 years, how are you going to prove to create simular jobs levels ? (I’m using the NBN as an example).
[Now is the time for all good men/women to come to the aid of the party.]
Hear hear! Until 6pm on August 21, we are at war. There is no fence sitting!
John Alexander – the Nicole Cornes of 2010?
Actually, I hope not, Southcott managed to stem a statewide tide because of her. I wouldn’t want a similar tide in NSW…
Oh come on ITEP!
It is Animal Farm all over again!!
All pigs are equal but some pigs are more equal than others!!
Unions don’t support workers, they support unionised workers.
That would be fine if they didn’t rob from other workers to do it!
What about all the millions of part-time workers in small businesses? Casual pickers? Hell even the business owners themselves??
These are jobs, guys. I have been at the coalface for a long time with family businesses who work their tails off to earn less than your average wharfie, meatworker, plumber, teacher. There was not a brass razoo for small businesses who could get no overdraft or credit to carry stock was there?
I am not a member of the Libs, I don’t work for them and only occasionally I vote for them but what this government did to protect unionised labour was as transparent as it was fair. IE, not at all.
Mick,
The extent of BER “waste” is still a point of debate. Having said that, there have no doubt been problems. This must be weighed against the need-for-speed in the spending of stimulus money, the approval of the stimulus spending design (as a whole) by people like, I believe, Stiglitz, and the Coalitions commitment to the spending of the remainder of the $5.5B. It’s more complex than simply pointing to subsector statistics and painting them across the whole program.
Of course, there’s been much more to this governments performance than BER. The post-GFC state of the economy, especially employment, are major achievements. Again, there are those outside the political debate here in Australia who commend the Government on its management of the GFC.
Then there is health reform. Debatable, yes, but a big reform nonetheless and delivered – except in WA – as promised.
The mining tax, though watered-down, is a much-needed reform. A deserved boost to revenue by a Government willing to act in the interests of the nation over the powerful resistance of very-big-business, some of whom have seen a 900% increase in profits over the last decade.
An apology to a generation of people removed from their families.
$10B on the Murray Darling.
Increases to the aged pension.
A fully-costed PPL.
The abolition of Workchoices.
A return to the auspices of the UN in the detention and processing of asylum seekers.
Low inflation.
Low interest rates.
All-in-all, not a bad effort for a first-term Government I would have thought.
TSOP
we laid in provisions long ago
from the 14th onwards it is total war
no surrender no retreat
Will the Government get much of the private school parents vote?
There’s a rather large BER project being built at a private boys school in my local area.
Will Abbott and Pyne actually put out an education policy, assuming Pyne isn’t too busy trying to save his seat? 😀
Mick
james is a self employed builder as were most of the ber recipients
perhaps less cream and more ream may help your synapses?
Ah, so you don’t even bother to engage with the substance of the argument.
I suggest that ‘publish everything’ is not a healthy attitude for our media, with examples, and you come back with a simplistic ‘information should be free’.
I would partially agree with you IF every time an article is published it had a well rounded context, responses from relevant parties etc, along with a mature assessment from the public, assessing it rationally keeping the full context in mind. If that was true I’d actually advocate that concepts of cabinet confidentiality should be abandoned because there would no longer be a public benefit in such a convention – we would be so enlightened that there would be no danger of an ill-informed media bunfight over who-said-what-to-whom-and-omg-I-can’t-believe-she-questioned-that!?!?!
That doesn’t happen. No one has the time to rationally and fully contemplate everything that happens, so what bubbles to the top of the collective public consciousness is a distorted mess of headlines, sound bites and instant judgment. You can suggest that Oakes was doing the journalistically noble thing and publishing so that we could be better informed, but honestly, he was just looking for a punchy out of context headline. Where’s the public interest in that?
SMH/Age Internet Poll: Can Labor get its campaign back on track?
Poll form
1. Please select an answer. Yes, if Julia Gillard makes peace with Kevin Rudd and stops the spin
2. No, voters are too disillusioned with the government
3. View results
Yes, if Julia Gillard makes peace with Kevin Rudd and stops the spin
31%
No, voters are too disillusioned with the government
69%
Total votes: 12271.
Would you like to vote?
Poll closes in 2 days.
Get voting. 12771 seems a large sample too. Question to William – how many alp/lib staffers are pumping these things.
evan14@1918
They damn well ought to seeing Labor have actually extended considerably the already obscene largesse Howard and Hyacinth bestowed on the private schools in spades. But Gillard & Co have probably screwed the public schools for no benefit to them in votes whatsoever. Those silvertails aren’t grateful for anything.
gixxer
But when will they run one about tone and the goat?
Gixxer Man
Internet polls are rubbish. I gave up casting a vote in one ages ago.
BrizOZ
You work from a 20th Century paradigm. One which says:
a) $ = services, therefore less $ = fewer services and
b) Jobs must be created, ideally from governments.
We predominantly have jobs because we have mortgages. We have mortgages because we are happy to live beyond our means and pay it off with our jobs. Our jobs pay our homes, therefore they become the most important thing.
I have never understood the drive to ‘create jobs’. A much better goal for a nation is “to be productive” equal to it: “to be generous to those less fortunate”.
I have to say that there is at least one nation I have lived in that does this and it works: Singapore. it is genuinely productive.
The paradigm you support is borne of envy and self-interest. We should buy Australian cars to protect Australian jobs, right? Though in the nineties the cars were genuinely crap, the safety poor and were overpriced. They are not much better today.
So I should work harder to pay car plant worker’s mortgages and secure their jobs and drive a car with a poorer ANCAP rating to put my family at risk, but for a good cause???
Love it or hate it, we have a global economy, barriers are disappearing, people WILL lose jobs.
Why do we send Iron Ore overseas and buy it back at 500 000% mark up as ships and cars from Korea?
Why don’t we develop cradle to grave nuclear and squeeze every dollar out of every nation that uses the Uranium we hypocritically sell (if it is dangerous to us, what is it, exactly that you hate about the Chinese children or American children that you are happy with their risk??).
Why don’t we rule the world with alternative energy, Coal liquefaction to Oil, Nanotechnology?
We could be productive but we live in fear of having our houses being taken away from us, so we live, instead, in protection.
[Where is the evidence that asylum seekers is a bigger issue in Qld than elsewhere? ]
I don’t think the incessant pushing of the AS issue has made any difference in Qld. Well not in the regional areas anyway. The only one who thought it was a vote changing issue was Troothy.
The main demographics that are concerned about it either wouldn’t vote Labor anyway (the One Nation & CEC mob) or the older group who grew up under the WAP and are very concerned but won’t change their vote over it either. (they mostly vote LNP but there are Labor voters in the mix too)
I don’t think the RSPT/MRPT issue resulted in any vote leakage also. It actually had quite a level of support across the political spectrum even in the so-called mining electorates. Troothy was spinning a line here also.
The Rudd issue though “is” an issue holding back the Labor vote here and that is acknowledged not only by the National media but the Coalition which is feeding off it with glee.
IMO, the reason for the drop in Labor & Rudd’s ratings in Qld, prior to Gillard, was more to do with Qld having a one proprietor State, print media (even regionally like Townsville etc) and Regional media like APN with coverage in the major towns and the ABC.
Swinging/undecided voters (the Howard battlers) reacted to the hot button issues flogged incessantly by these media providers and they are the ones that have reacted badly to the Rudd dumping. That’s where the drop in the Labor vote is in Qld at any rate.
[As for the MRPT – too late to change it, so the govt. might have to sacrifice Flynn and Dawson(which were both going to be hard to hold anyway). ]
I don’t believe they were before the Rudd issue and even put money on Labor to win them both. As I said before, not so confident now, but if the Ruddster is involved in campaigning in those seats, then they are still a chance. Especially Dawson.
Gixxer,
Take it from a sydneysider whose blogged ad nausem on the SMH – the Libs pump those polls all day and night. Just ignore it.
[Unions don’t support workers, they support unionised workers.]
Interesting comment. In my workplace (about 350 workers) the AMWU fights for the conditions and higher pay in an enterprise bargaining agreement that covers all non-contract employees, union members and non-union members alike.
Mick
maybe international rescue should rule us
thunderbirds are go
🙁
[But when will they run one about tone and the goat?]
lol wot?
Tone’s been busy with goats? 😉
Gixxer Man
Internet polls are rubbish. I gave up casting a vote in one ages ago.
.
I agree but SMHAGE is not exactly a bastion of conservatives. You’d think the Age results in particular would favour Gillard.
TSOP
spolier for the last week
“billy speaks exclusively about his tryst”
But when will they run one about tone and the goat?
lol wot?
Tone’s been busy with goats? 😉
…..
In motor bike racing GOAT is Rossi = Greatest of All Time! Who is the GOAT in this election then? 😉
I am serious pissed off with the poor campaign I was thinking of sending Jules an E-mail but cannot seem to find a direct email address to do so. does anyone have her actual office email addres for I would image her staff would still be accessing it on her behalf
I was going to use some of Grog’s recent post about the economy for I want the ALP to start to own this issue.
I think back to 2001/2004 on both occasions Howard ran ads with newspaper graphs and other bits and pieces. all very effective yet the ALP are nowhere as aggressive.
@Mick Wilkinson/1925,
Your forgetting the reason why Governments create jobs, is to stop the economy from going to a stand still, thus the “National Interest”, why do you think we are in a better position in the economy right now than say USA, UK and Europe?
The rest of your post is rubbish, If what you say is true, then the Coalition wouldn’t be afraid to put policies such as ETS or other things in, would they???
[I agree but SMHAGE is not exactly a bastion of conservatives.]
The SMH is a honey-pot for the bees of the Young Liberals. Believe me – the poll is trash.
Gus
No that wouldn’t work. International is far too important (and, might I add, cool!) to be involved in politics.
I also have serious reservations that they might arouse suspicion in the electorate that as leaders they would be mere puppets!
… when actually, they are .. marionettes!
MB
if you are serious try her electoratal office email, BTW she is on twitter and replies to DM’s
sometimes
Mick
LOL
at least we can josh
🙂
So Dolly is the latest to stick the knife in Rudd … he must be still drowning in all that dodgy wheat chaff …
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alexander-downer-accuses-kevin-rudd-of-labor-betrayal/story-fn59niix-1225899504122
Unemployement = 5.1%
Interest Rates are now lower than in 2004 and 2007
Inflation is under control
NBN will be brillant for anyone wanting faster interst downloading speeds
Gillard to announce low fee super on Sunday!
Downer rips into Rudd, uses some expletives to describe Kev – Ah, typical Downer, insensitive prick as always.
Gusface. That was the email address I was looking for but for some reason could not find it.
mexican it should just be julia.gillard.mp@aph.gov.au
[During the caretaker period (starting 5pm Monday 19 July 2010), the Email your Prime Minister function will not be operating. If you wish to contact Prime Minister Gillard during this period, please direct your enquiries through the Labor Party website. That website is not maintained or funded by the Commonwealth of Australia.]
Afterall Labor does the right thing
[So Dolly is the latest to stick the knife in Rudd … he must be still drowning in all that dodgy wheat chaff …]
It’s a plus for Labor every time Curly (as Keating calls him) sticks his head up.
[“billy speaks exclusively about his tryst”]
Wouldn’t surprise me if that is the direction of the anti-Gillard dirt, especially if we make a comeback, which I am starting to get a strong feeling we will…
Itep – Thank you
Jackol@1920
I didn’t suggest that Oakes and Hartcher are doing anything ‘noble’, any more than a dog licking his balls is noble.
My view is that it’s best to err on the side of freedom of information if in doubt. I cant see why there would be any doubt in the recent instances. Nothing has been compromised.
Oakes has been vilified here by the party loyalists since the detail of the meeting between Rudd and Gillard before the knifing was leaked.
The cabinet confidentiality thing is a red herring inserting its smelly self into the argument to justify vilifying the journalists because they’ve hurt Labor. As I said earlier, it wouldn’t be the moral issue of our time if it were leaks from the Howard cabinet being reported by journalists.
The leaks will disappear when the leaker is no longer at the centre of government, or is discovered. I reckon the senior party members have a very good idea know who it is already.
One thing is for sure, if Oakes and Hartcher didn’t leak the stuff, others would. It is 100% for sure going to be published, they know that, so how can they be blamed?
Unless you want to sort of think less of them because they didn’t go on their own crusade against cabinet leakers by letting someone else publish. For what?
Metarzan
My argument exactly. You resorted to speaking about an industry where unionised labour is high.. there ARE union people there!
The AMWU ‘fights’ for the wharves. Not for the Farm owners, managers and workers that send stuff to you to export. Not Joe the Italian grocer down the road that put off three casuals last week.
YOUR wages go up.. probably above median wage, eh? YOUR bosses pass that on to every step of your supply chain, which adds to our cost of goods sold for imports and pulls cash out of the farmers pockets. Eventually, Joe pays for your wage increase.
He still gets up at 3AM to go to the markets and works an 80 hour week but the AMWU doesn’t work for HIM. They don’t give a rats where the money comes from to pay their members.. some of us, though, actually do, Metarzan.
One day, your job will disappear. It will be too expensive to keep you guys in employment whilst the rest of us suffer. Our ports suck with productivity compared to most countries in Asia and this, just like every other bubble, will burst.