Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has unloaded two sets of results, one from the weekend’s normal face-to-face polling (which they normally release on Friday, for reasons I’ve never understood – operational ones, presumably) and the other from the 680-sample phone poll which produced last night’s dive in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings. The news is on the whole cheering for Labor, who lead 54-46 on the face-to-face poll (or 55.5-45.5 if you use the respondent-allocated preferences rather than going off 2007 election preferences) and 53-47 on the phone poll (the same result on both measures). The phone poll has Labor down two points on the primary vote from last week to 42 per cent with the Coalition up 3.5 per cent to 42 per cent, reducing the two-party lead from what seemed an overcooked 55.5-44.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has both major parties down on the primary vote since a week ago, Labor by one point to 43.5 per cent and the Coalition 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent. Neither poll records much change for the Greens, who are hovering around 11 per cent.

UPDATE: The Nine Network is also reporting a Galaxy poll with the two-party vote at 50-50, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-37, compared with 55-35 at the start of the campaign. So this week we have had Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy report 52-48, 53-47 and 50-50 on two-party preferred, and 50-34, 48-33 and 49-37 on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face”

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

  1. [Hickey on radio this morning said the interview was conducted three weeks ago]

    Brian Burke must have given him a call 🙂 – Note Burkie is a true blue Catholic – and one of his sons is a priest.

  4. Wow – Middleton outdid herself tonight on SBS News. Lead story is Churches dissatisfaction with Gillard being an atheist.

    Gee, if you’re going to borrow your rampant speculation from the US playbook, you might want to check it against the respective countries’ vested interest in the matter. There’s not nearly as much interest in the subject here, and what there is of it belongs on Today Tonight.

  5. [Hickey on radio this morning said the interview was conducted three weeks ago]
    How strategic of the media to hold this story for the election campaign.
    The pack of %#@*holes.

  9. Frank – i dont think it is fair to pick on mesma for avoiding hasluck for indigenous issues – not with Wyatt as candidate.

  10. [If Karen Middleton is so convinced that mixing religion with politics is a great idea, she should run this short clip in her next SBS piece …]

    Incidentally Karen Middleton used to be the West Australian’s political editor………..

  11. Colberts speech is an all time classic. There is a YouTube of it but you should also look for the YouTube of him being thanked by the VIPs after. GeorgeW is fairly gracious but Laura Bush clearly says to Colbert “F$&@ you”.

  12. If Jesus was alive today, he wouldn’t relieve himself on Abbott if he was on fire. It’d be a waste of good bodily fluid.

    Fair dinkum, Abbott has absolutely nothing in common with the preachings of Jesus.

    I reckon Abbott must have fallen off his bike as a kid and hit his head somewhere, he definitely has a screw loose up there for sure!

  13. [“worstchoices” has a long dark past]

    Isn’t it an indictment upon Labor that they only thing that will save them is the previous failures of the party it opposes? Whatever happened to winning off of one’s own back?

  14. alias@102

    No one to this day has been able to prove there is an invisible force that presides over us all and judges our moral conduct or otherwise. I think in the 21st century, it is pretty reasonable to expect an intelligent person to be able to decide if they believe in something or not. To say it is better to be agnostic is ridiculous. May be it is better to say you are a buddha, or hindu, or muslim, take your pick. No answer will be correct or more acceptable.

    To believe or not believe, is a very personal matter. No one should judge it period.

  16. [Frank – i dont think it is fair to pick on mesma for avoiding hasluck for indigenous issues – not with Wyatt as candidate.]

    But Wyatt doesn’t look indigenous, as in regards to his skin colour, as opposed to the normal residents who reside in Hasluck 🙂

    /me puts on flameproof suit.

  18. Frank

    U dont think everyone knows anyway.

    There have been a number of prominent indigenous Wyatts before him and the VP MLA

  19. [and in walks hockey barker palmer and obarrell]

    Or my neice and nephew. Who almost closed the Hyatt buffet by themselves. 😉

  20. I think this election is on line for Labor’s relection by a slightly increased or slightly reduced majority. Mr Pyne and Mr Dutton are possible seat losses. I suspect Labor will both win and lose seats. For the Lnp to win everything needs to go exactly right…. and they cannot afford to lose any seats

  22. Centre.

    You will find that those who profess to be good Christians, are usually the most judgmental racist people around. The saying goes, I like your Christ, but not your Christians.

    Christ by all accounts was a man for the ages. He took on the heirarchy and challenged the conventions of the day. To admire and follow his teachings doesn’t mean you have to believe in any organised religion..

  24. Pspehos@148

    The distinction here is the level of evidence. There is no evidence for Father Christmas or the Easter Bunny. I would submit there is weak (not strong) evidence
    to support what you might call a liberal, progressive theistic position (the weak evidence would include: the fine-tuning of phsyical laws and constraints in the universe, for example). There is similarly weak evidence for positions such as string theory in physics. The fact there is weak evidence does not prevent many scientists from believeing that string theory may be true.

  26. [The simplest way to demonstrate the commonsense and rationality of agnosticism over atheism is the incontrovertible logistical construction: The failure to prove a positive is not, of itself, proof of a negative.]

    My desire to adhere to the principles of scientific method and empiricism compels me to conclude that, without evidence to support the existence of a god, the conclusion one must draw is that they don’t. If I were to say there was a troll living under your bed, you would require some form of proof before you believed me. Even though one could argue that there is no way to prove me 100% wrong (he could become invisible when people look at him etc.) However, there are several paradoxes that come hand in hand with omnipotence and omnipresence (the most famous of which is the “can God create a rock so heavy that he could not lift it?” paradox.) While a postmodern view such as yours does lend leniency toward the theist side of the debate, it still is hard to reach any conclusion, logically or evidentially, that the divine exists.

    Also, an agnostic isn’t just an athiest who isn’t 100% sure, either. That’s an athiest. In fact, anybody who becomes an athiest through a logical reasoning can never be 100% sure, and will willingly change their view if compelling evidence is presented.

  27. [“worstchoices” has a long dark past]

    [Isn’t it an indictment upon Labor that they only thing that will save them is the previous failures of the party it opposes? ]

    You seem to be implying that SerfChoices resides only in their past. I don’t believe that for a moment. It is very much in their present, plus their agenda for the future. In fact, it’s in their DNA.

  29. And with this, Hickey has tipped his hand and shown that he is willing to cynically manipulate his flock where it suits. He wishes to use his influence to encourage Catholics to vote for the Coalition. He’s not an idiot. He’s knows very well – with 100% conviction – that there is NO way that Gillard would dilute the current privileges of the Catholic Church one iota. He knows that for Gillard – as a childless athiest – any move to do so would be electoral suicide. And so there is only one possible reason that he would choose to muse to the media in the shadow of an election “umm what COULD happen?”. He whistles and he knows dogs will listen.

    Spiritual leadership – is this what it looks like?

  32. [i keep having nightmares that i am running an all u can eat restaraunt.

    and in walks hockey barker palmer and obarrell]

    And let me guess, they ordered a diet coke to go with it? 😆

    I shouldn’t laugh at fat jokes, but yours made me laugh…

  35. [Colberts speech is an all time classic. There is a YouTube of it but you should also look for the YouTube of him being thanked by the VIPs after. GeorgeW is fairly gracious but Laura Bush clearly says to Colbert “F$&@ you”.]

    Dio, have you read his book?

  37. [the thing that causes me to wake in a cold sweat,is that i have no waafers]

    Yes, make sure you have the bucket handy! 🙂

  39. To Speak of Pebbles@176

    I addressed some of your points in a reply to Psephos @174.

    In terms of definitions, I am happy to regard myself as an agnostic according to the following definition:

    ag·nos·tic (g-nstk)
    n.
    1.
    a. One who believes that it is impossible to know whether there is a God.
    b. One who is skeptical about the existence of God but does not profess true atheism.

  40. [The distinction here is the level of evidence. There is no evidence for Father Christmas or the Easter Bunny. I would submit there is weak (not strong) evidence
    to support what you might call a liberal, progressive theistic position (the weak evidence would include: the fine-tuning of phsyical laws and constraints in the universe, for example). ]

    I’ve never seen the slightest shred of evidence for any supernatural phenomenon at all. There are perfectly good materialist explanations for all observed phenomena in the universe. I see no difference at all between Father Christmas and God, except that the former appeals to children and the latter to adults (who have considerably less excuse for believing in fables).

  41. Mick Q@186

    This relates back to the proposition that Julia Gillard would have been politically smarter, and on more rational ground, to have declared herself an agnostic rather than an atheist.

  44. A couple of things from chats I have just had.

    My understanding is that Galaxy was done mainly on Tuesday night. The better Morgan result allegedly reflects party polling on both sides that Gillard may have slightly turned the corner with her performance yesterday. I am expecting that Galaxy, Newspoll and Neilsen will all be in around 51-49 or 52-48 over the weekend. Give the week we have had, this is a good platform for the rest of the campaign. The 37% primary figure for Galaxy is absolute rubbish – no other poll is polling labor below 39/40 and no-one I have spoken to over the last few days even remotely thinks that we are below that figure.

    Another thing I heard earlier this afternoon. Apparently, the Daily Telegraph was innundated by a number of angry female callers today about their front page depicting Julia as a pensioner and how they did not report that she denied the accusation about the inflammatory comments. We are underestimating an Australian trait here: giving someone a fair go and this display by the media against Julia may backfire on them and Abbott. Keep it up I say.

  47. Psephos@190

    The liberal progressive theist’s position does not suggest that “God” for want of a better term is necessarily supernatural. So I suppose it comes down to definitions.

  50. Hickey on radio this morning said the interview was conducted three weeks ago

    How strategic of the media to hold this story for the election campaign.
    The pack of %#@*holes.

    Yep. But 2 weeks into the campaign and 7.30 report every night is STILL running about *questions are still being asked about rudds dumping*

    Swan did a great job last night but had to really struggle to be able to talk about the economy.

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *