Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has unloaded two sets of results, one from the weekend’s normal face-to-face polling (which they normally release on Friday, for reasons I’ve never understood – operational ones, presumably) and the other from the 680-sample phone poll which produced last night’s dive in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings. The news is on the whole cheering for Labor, who lead 54-46 on the face-to-face poll (or 55.5-45.5 if you use the respondent-allocated preferences rather than going off 2007 election preferences) and 53-47 on the phone poll (the same result on both measures). The phone poll has Labor down two points on the primary vote from last week to 42 per cent with the Coalition up 3.5 per cent to 42 per cent, reducing the two-party lead from what seemed an overcooked 55.5-44.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has both major parties down on the primary vote since a week ago, Labor by one point to 43.5 per cent and the Coalition 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent. Neither poll records much change for the Greens, who are hovering around 11 per cent.

UPDATE: The Nine Network is also reporting a Galaxy poll with the two-party vote at 50-50, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-37, compared with 55-35 at the start of the campaign. So this week we have had Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy report 52-48, 53-47 and 50-50 on two-party preferred, and 50-34, 48-33 and 49-37 on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face”

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  4. [Galaxy Poll 50-50]

    Depends on when the poll was taken – considering that the Morgan Phone Poll was taken at the height of the Leak and the following day Feral Julia Presser (They would’ve polled all day Wednesday) I reckon the Galaxy is a Rogue.

  6. Lemme guess Win/Nine – probably taken on Tuesday Night only 🙂

    Fits in perfectly for an “Oakes Bombshell” Tonight.

  8. We’ve had 50/50 52/48 and 50/50 from Galaxy. I think this is fairly consistent and just shows the election is close. I can’t prove it but also get the impression midweek polls tend to be slightly lower for Labor for some reason.

  11. [A Galaxy on Thursday well whatever next. 😉 Briggs must be lonely.]

    See my 6 – follow up to Oakes Bomb, ambushed by Riley’s Morgan 🙂

  12. A very commendable disability policy announcement from Gillard and Shorten(I’ll give him credit for his support of the disabled), but unfortunately not sexy enough for the media, who’d rather concentrate on “leakgate” and idiot Abbott kicking a football.

    Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 speculated that behind the scenes, there are plans being made for a Gillard/Rudd joint campaign appearance. 🙂

  15. [news radio lead with “the latest poll shows the liberals are closing the gap on labor”.. ]

    I’m happy for them to think that. Reporting that the election is close helps Labor.

  16. Labor should have swapped a more “sexy” policy announcement to today to try to blow leakgate out of the water, and keep the worthy disability announcement for a time when hopefully things have quietened down in that regard.

  18. A joint Rudd/Gillard appearance would be incredibly smart. Do one of those “ask questions till you drop” non-stop press conferences to flush out all the questions. Rudd would have to play team sport publicly.

  19. [news radio lead with “the latest poll shows the liberals are closing the gap on labor”.]

    Perfectly fine by me. Can anyone, of any political persuasion, seriously think that Tony Abbott is the right person to be PM of Australia? – Thought not.

    [It seems the polls are all over the place, in more ways than one.]

    Not unusual in the second week of a campaign.

  21. [behind the scenes, there are plans being made for a Gillard/Rudd joint campaign appearance.]

    I hope this might happen. Blimey that will be hard to manage. Maybe the best bet i to have Kev in the front row clapping enthusiastically many times. To have him on stage inroducing JG would be a bridge too far.

  22. [Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 speculated that behind the scenes, there are plans being made for a Gillard/Rudd joint campaign appearance.]
    That would be great. That would show Labor is united and that Rudd is a very big man. He already has my admiration but this would cement it forever.

  23. [I’m happy for them to think that. Reporting that the election is close helps Labor.]

    Yep. “Tony’s a real chance” is good for Labor.

  24. Rudd appearing with Gillard would look very uncomfortable and awkward – not a good idea.
    A better idea would be Rudd helping out QLD MPS in more marginal seats, that’d prove he’s being a team player. 🙂

  25. Ahh the OO:

    [ swrightwestoz
    Given past 48 hours, ALP might take 50-50 on Galaxy and hope to re-start the week. #ausvotes 6 minutes ago via web

    I replied with the Morgan:

    [ frankscan65
    @swrightwestoz You forgot Morgan 🙂 or doesn’t that fit your Liberal Meme ? http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4545/ less than 5 seconds ago via web in reply to swrightwestoz]

  26. [news radio lead with “the latest poll shows the liberals are closing the gap on labor”]

    I heard that too, then said Gillard and Abbott level pegging on satisfaction after Gillard suffered massive drop in approval. All presented to give impression of neck and neck race, followed by long Abbott sledge.

    No mention of preferred prime minister or 2PP. Expect more from the ABC which is supposed to present even handed from both sides, if I want to hear this sort of edited comments I can listen to fox or sky or Bolt.

    Disappointing and hard for the ABC to defend sloppy reporting like that.

  28. [Rudd appearing with Gillard would look very uncomfortable and awkward…]

    Why? He is standing to be elected as an ALP member and will be a senior cabinet minister when elected. It makes perfect sense.

  31. evan14@24

    I think you underestimate Rudd. He is very good at sublimating his emotions and towing the line. I say, fight fire with fire. Can’t just wait around for the next hand grenade to explode — just imagine if it happened on launch day.

  32. [JG and Rudd joint appearance – good idea, if done well.]

    Campaign Launch in Qld – Kev to give speech highlighting all his achievements and then ending with something like:

    “But that’s Chapter 1, in this story, for Chapter 2 may I introduce a wonderful Lady, and an even Greater Prime minister, My Friend Julia Gillard”

  33. [Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 speculated that behind the scenes, there are plans being made for a Gillard/Rudd joint campaign appearance.]

    If Paul Bongiorno says so, it’s probably true.

  34. I may be wrong, but from memory Galaxy were not the sharpest knife in the block in campaign polls in 2007, they got the last one correct.

  35. [But that’s Chapter 1, in this story, for Chapter 2 may I introduce a wonderful Lady, and an even Greater Prime minister, My Friend Julia Gillard]

    Zero chance of that and it would sound forced anyhow.

  39. Apologies that I stated yesterday evening that Morgan was 50-50. My “mail” was that there was a 50-50 coming within 24 hours from “somewhere”, and I guessed Morgan, based on the PPM figures. Could be the Galaxy though.

    Happy to put my hand up and say I wasn’t accurate. Sorry William and all.

  40. [“But that’s Chapter 1, in this story, for Chapter 2 may I introduce a wonderful Lady, and an even Greater Prime minister, My Friend Julia Gillard.”]

    I think that might be Arnhem. Let’s start with Eindhoven and see how it goes.

  42. Dee, Galaxy is usually given the most ‘cred’ but Newspoll, Galaxy and Morgan all came close to the final result in 2007.

  43. [Can someone please tell me who is the most credible if any of the two pollsters?
    Morgan or Galaxy?????]

    They are both credible, they report the results then the media distort them to fit the desired scenario.

  44. From the sphere of ignorance:

    [LaurieOakes LaurieOakes
    Nine’s Galaxy poll finds 52% agree Gillard and Abbott have demonstrated lack of leadership and vision. #politicalpygmies #ausvotes 5 minutes ago via web ]

  45. At the beginning of a campaign Galaxy tends to be all over the place but tends to be accurate in polling week when it matters.

  46. I now look forward to a 56/44 newspoll. All entirely consistent (with sampling error) with a true voter intent of around 53.x.

  47. [Paul Bongiorno on Channel 10 speculated that behind the scenes, there are plans being made for a Gillard/Rudd joint campaign appearance.]

    Excellent news! A sensible move by Labor.

  48. ru

    I thought Galaxy had a very good record.

    On Rudd appearing with Gillard, can you all remember Howie and Cossie holding hands being interviewed before the last election. I almost threw up. Swan obviously hasn’t even spoken to Rudd since he dumped him.

    Rudd is stilted at the best of times and Gillard is as wooden as a cigar-store Indian so it would be excruciating. Rudd aint no Hillary who gritted her teeth and appeared with Obama and did well.

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