Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has unloaded two sets of results, one from the weekend’s normal face-to-face polling (which they normally release on Friday, for reasons I’ve never understood – operational ones, presumably) and the other from the 680-sample phone poll which produced last night’s dive in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings. The news is on the whole cheering for Labor, who lead 54-46 on the face-to-face poll (or 55.5-45.5 if you use the respondent-allocated preferences rather than going off 2007 election preferences) and 53-47 on the phone poll (the same result on both measures). The phone poll has Labor down two points on the primary vote from last week to 42 per cent with the Coalition up 3.5 per cent to 42 per cent, reducing the two-party lead from what seemed an overcooked 55.5-44.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has both major parties down on the primary vote since a week ago, Labor by one point to 43.5 per cent and the Coalition 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent. Neither poll records much change for the Greens, who are hovering around 11 per cent.

UPDATE: The Nine Network is also reporting a Galaxy poll with the two-party vote at 50-50, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-37, compared with 55-35 at the start of the campaign. So this week we have had Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy report 52-48, 53-47 and 50-50 on two-party preferred, and 50-34, 48-33 and 49-37 on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face”

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  1. alias

    why is it sensible?

    I ask you if Tony Abbott said to you, I talk to God all the time, and then you asked him has god ever talked back? and he said yes. What would you think then?

  2. Psephos..

    Beg to disagree. Agnosticism is an acknowledgement that in the scientific realm, for example, there are many unanswered questions. Just read a sampling of cutting edge quantum mechanics and you will have any sense of certainty about existential questions seriously shaken.

  4. [gloryconsequence – was it you who promised us some inside info on the situation in Sturt. Whoever it was seemed to be fairly confident that Pyne would get the flick..]

    I noticed Joe speaking from Sturt today and Pyne wasn’t looking supremely happy.

  6. Today’s front page headline in The West Australian was “Archbishop questions impact of PM’s atheism”. The lead-in to the story: “Catholic Archbishop Barry Hickey has weighed into the Federal election, questioning whether Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s atheism is a threat to the privileges afford to churches.”

  9. As reported from Centre last night, they have taken the 3.85 for Abbott.

    The Mad One is now into 3.75 with that agency. 😐

  11. Mark Bahnisch writes in the ABC’s Campaign Diary blog:

    [There is no doubt that there is significant volatility in the vote in Queensland seats. The Courier-Mail’s national affairs editor, Dennis Atkins, suggested a while ago that swings in different electorates are varying wildly from a consolidation for Labor through to big surges for the LNP.

    That’s consistent with what I’m hearing on the ground in our trio of North Brisbane seats.

    Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters. Petrie is showing more evidence of a swing towards the Coalition, though the LNP candidate Dean Teasdale is low profile and Labor holds it by a relatively solid margin compared to its two neighbours. (Teasdale initially expressed scepticism about the rail promise, only to have the Coalition leadership match the funding later in the afternoon.) Dickson is looking very bad for its incumbent MP Peter Dutton, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara able to capitalise on his failed attempt to defect to the safer seat of McPherson.]

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/drumroll/2010/07/the-labor-campaign-viewed-from-brisbanes-northern-outskirts.html

  12. [TSOP

    Don’t you love Stephen Colbert?]

    Yes I do. And I would very highly recommend his book which I quoted from – I Am America (And So Can You). I couldn’t stop laughing while reading it (got weird looks on the train)

  13. TSOP

    I have not read his book, but love his show. Particularly during the US elections, that show together with the Daily Show kept me sane.

    Apparently, it has been said that Republican leaning viewers took Colbert at his word. They did not get the sarcasm. Too funny!!

  14. BillBowe@106:

    [Today’s front page headline in The West Australian was “Archbishop questions impact of PM’s atheism”. The lead-in to the story: “Catholic Archbishop Barry Hickey has weighed into the Federal election, questioning whether Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s atheism is a threat to the privileges afford to churches.”]

    Full article here:

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/election/a/-/article/7665089/archbishop-questions-impact-of-gillards-atheism/

  15. Cuppa

    New campaign slogan to mollify the religionists:

    Thank god for Labor

    How about:

    To Hell with God! Labor’s better!

  16. [Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters]

    Didn’t Wyatt pull out, citing health issues?

  18. St Gus, book me in for an appointment with one of the churches. I’ve already taken 1.26 for Julia.

    I’m worried enough about the general election to worry about seat betting 😐

  22. [Maybe Middleton should have asked which Religion Julia should choose to believe in]

    Victoria – Psephos put it into a bit of perspective about the small SBS audience but the rest of the mob will pick it up.

    Bob Hawke’s Dad was a Minister in my home town for awhile and when Bob was PM old Clem or Cliff (can’t remember really) was still alive. It was easier for Bob to be agnostic.

  25. Darn @ 66

    [gloryconsequence – was it you who promised us some inside info on the situation in Sturt. Whoever it was seemed to be fairly confident that Pyne would get the flick..]

    Not sure who promised any “inside info” (in terms of polling) on Sturt – wasn’t me!

    I know that Pyne is extremely squirmy at the moment though. The Labor candidate there -Rick Sarre, very well respected University face – has been doorknocking for weeks. I have a friend who manages a chain at the Burnside Village Shopping Centre (as toff and Tory as it gets) and Sarre has been there multiple times a week for months. Pyne has been seen handing out his OWN leaflets in the Linden Park/Frewville/Glenunga area. That’s a massive sign of something brewing.

  26. [Apparently, it has been said that Republican leaning viewers took Colbert at his word. They did not get the sarcasm. Too funny!!]

    Yep and got him to speak at the 2006 White House Correspondents Dinner, thinking he was a new popular conservative comedian. What ensued was a solid gold speech which completely took the piss out of the Bush administration (wasn’t just friendly jibes either) dressed up in his fake conservative commentator routine. There’s probably a youtube vid of it.

  28. [Bob Hawke’s Dad was a Minister in my home town for awhile and when Bob was PM old Clem or Cliff (can’t remember really) was still alive. It was easier for Bob to be agnostic.]

    It was Clem.

  32. Psephos @ 96

    [Agnosticism is an admission of ignorance.]

    Indeed – unbelievers should have the courage of their atheist convictions, and either shit, or get off the crapper!

    Dawkins help us if the religious zealot, Tony Abbott, gets his hands on the keys to the nation’s Kingswood.

  33. I’m not panicked by the 50/50, taken at the worst stage of the campaign for Labor
    – Close polls mean more eyes on Abbott (and perhaps the MSM lay off Labor if they have the contest they want so badly)
    – Abbott needs to be ahead with a buffer at this point
    – Marginal seat campaigning will reduce actual seat losses if there is a swing to Liberal (see SA election, 2001 federal election)
    – Gillard has been very strong the past 2 days- the leaks issue as invigorated her
    – Abbott’s achilles heel is economics- their figures are rubbery- see George Mega in the OO, and are heading for a budget blow out

  34. [in dairy farming electorates: Blessed Are The Cheesemakers]

    Hahaha!

    Well, obviously it’s not meant to be taken literally… it refers to any manufacturers of dairy products. 😆

  35. Perhaps it’s time for a royal commission into child abuse by persons in positions of authority and any systematic coverups.

  36. Psephos, sexual abuse by clergy aside, what about Abbott’s position on welfare, or asylum seekers? What does Hickey think of these??

  37. [Maybe Middleton feels her talent is wasted at SBS?]

    Only Yuppies and Faux Wogs watch SBS – Real ethnics get their news and entertainmant from FTA Satellite TV and Narrowcast radio stations like Rete Italia.

  38. Nine’s Galaxy Poll primary votes ALP 37%, Coalition 43%, Greens 13%. 19 minutes ago via web

    Once again, calculating the preferences puts that perilously close to 50.5-49.5 for Labor. Every time I check the Galaxy primaries, it seems to have Labor at the upper end of the stated figure. And the Coalition primary always arouses suspicion in me when it tips above 42.

    I suspect that’s more like 51-49.

  39. The simplest way to demonstrate the commonsense and rationality of agnosticism over atheism is the incontrovertible logistical construction: The failure to prove a positive is not, of itself, proof of a negative.

  40. [Moses votes labor]

    He did free the slaves…

    The Liberals – party of the Pharaoh!
    (or will that alienate Egypt enthusiasts?)

  42. [Pyne has been seen handing out his OWN leaflets in the Linden Park/Frewville/Glenunga area. That’s a massive sign of something brewing.]

    gloryc – wow, if Pyne is handing out there he must be in trouble. Used to be true blue Lib territory.

  43. [Today’s front page headline in The West Australian was “Archbishop questions impact of PM’s atheism”. The lead-in to the story: “Catholic Archbishop Barry Hickey has weighed into the Federal election, questioning whether Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s atheism is a threat to the privileges afford to churches.”]

    Hickey on radio this morning said the interview was conducted three weeks ago

  44. More horrendous than the West or SBS bringing Gillard’s atheism into the discussion, is that NO ONE in the MSM seems willing to call them out on it

  45. TSOP. I have seen the video of Colbert at the Correspondent’s dinner. I could hardly believe he had the balls to do it. I was almost embarrassed for Bush and his cronies.
    I say almost.

    It was a brilliant piece of work.

  47. [gloryc – wow, if Pyne is handing out there he must be in trouble. Used to be true blue Lib territory.]

    and note Mesma is anywhere but in WA Campaigning – We know Curtin is as safe as houses, but why isn’t she in Electorates like Hasluck and Canning – or are voters who are working class and./or Indigenous “Beneath Her” ?

  48. [The simplest way to demonstrate the commonsense and rationality of agnosticism over atheism is the incontrovertible logistical construction: The failure to prove a positive is not, of itself, proof of a negative.]

    So, you are agnostic about Father Christmas? The Easter Bunny? You’d have a hard time proving as a logical certainty that they don’t exist.

  49. Christopher should look on the bright side. After a life in politics he can always apply for the job of poster boy for Flight Centre advertising signage.

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