Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has unloaded two sets of results, one from the weekend’s normal face-to-face polling (which they normally release on Friday, for reasons I’ve never understood – operational ones, presumably) and the other from the 680-sample phone poll which produced last night’s dive in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings. The news is on the whole cheering for Labor, who lead 54-46 on the face-to-face poll (or 55.5-45.5 if you use the respondent-allocated preferences rather than going off 2007 election preferences) and 53-47 on the phone poll (the same result on both measures). The phone poll has Labor down two points on the primary vote from last week to 42 per cent with the Coalition up 3.5 per cent to 42 per cent, reducing the two-party lead from what seemed an overcooked 55.5-44.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has both major parties down on the primary vote since a week ago, Labor by one point to 43.5 per cent and the Coalition 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent. Neither poll records much change for the Greens, who are hovering around 11 per cent.

UPDATE: The Nine Network is also reporting a Galaxy poll with the two-party vote at 50-50, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-37, compared with 55-35 at the start of the campaign. So this week we have had Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy report 52-48, 53-47 and 50-50 on two-party preferred, and 50-34, 48-33 and 49-37 on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face”

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  2. Interesting how everyone (well, mostly!) gets buoyed by a 55-45esque poll, but when it’s 50-50 it’s a “clear rogue” or “can’t be trusted”. Not having a dig here, just a general vibe. The overall picture needs to be looked at. As we sit, we’re still looking at a 52.5-47.5 at the worst for Labor, which is what many predict anyway.

  4. Rudd and Gillard appearing together wouldn’t soothe the sourness of people like Thomas Paine surely. I’m not sure it’ll get the reaction they’re hoping for.

  5. [Can someone please tell me who is the most credible if any of the two pollsters?
    Morgan or Galaxy?????]

    Dee – IMHO Galaxy have a history of producing some very suspect polls early in the campaign, followed by one that is right on the money the day before polling day.

    Two examples – 1. The Victorian state election in 2006 Galaxy had them neck and neck early on and the ALP ended up winning by a street.
    2. The last Queensland election – much the same thing.

    So I’m taking the 50-50 with a grain of salt. ,.

  7. Wow – Middleton outdid herself tonight on SBS News. Lead story is Churches dissatisfaction with Gillard being an atheist. Went for quite awhile and then said even the Muslim churches are talking about it now. She really ground it in but gave Abbott a nice little leg up with his laurnorder stuff.

    They’re asking for comments to be left on website as to Gillard’s atheism precluding her from the job.

  8. Bushfire Bill,

    Re your comments in the previous thread:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/29/morgan-phone-poll-gillard-approval-slump/comment-page-17/#comment-539633

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/29/morgan-phone-poll-gillard-approval-slump/comment-page-16/#comment-539537

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/29/morgan-phone-poll-gillard-approval-slump/comment-page-15/#comment-539503

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    I hope this helps.

  9. [Rudd and Gillard appearing together wouldn’t soothe the sourness of people like Thomas Paine surely. I’m not sure it’ll get the reaction they’re hoping for.]

    But it will in Quinceland.

    Expect a walkabout with Kev in a shopping mall in a Qld Marginal seat – it would make today’s Streetwalk look like a stroll in a dark alley.

  10. very poor form for Morgan and/or 7 to release the negative (gillard’s ratings) one day and the 2pp (which has held up OK) the day after. I wonder why they did that

  11. BH

    Are you serious? What are we in the dark ages? Everyone is entitled to their belief system, but I am very happy that Julia is not beholden to an invisible force.

    Maybe Middleton should have asked which Religion Julia should choose to believe in

  12. Good grief!

    Andrew Bolt spewing his usual calumnies now on SkyNews. He rubbishes both parties for, respectively the ‘law and order’ and the disability funding announced today with the airy dismissal “who cares about $100 million here, $170 million there?” This is what passes for analysis of major funding decisions from the egregious AB?

    Of course it is, and what does Bolt move straight onto – “leaks, leaks, leaks!” he shrieks, as he foams at the mouth and smirks his way though a tirade of falsehoods and misrepresentations whilst dragging out every anti-ALP cliche in his formidable arsenal.

    Dennis Atkins was more measured, but he got about a 1/4 of the airtime that Bolt managed to hog, and David Speers did nothing to balance up the flow of idiocy.

    No more, or less than we expect from these well trained Murdoch hacks. That’s 10 minutes I’ll never get back.

  13. Apparently Galaxy was taken last night. I’ve noticed these 9 Galaxy polls seem to be taken over one night only, where as the others seem to be taken over 2. I’ll ask those more qualified than me, could this make any difference at all?

  15. [I wonder why they did that]

    So that the morning news would pick up the “bombshell” and run it off its tits all day.

  16. [Interesting how everyone (well, mostly!) gets buoyed by a 55-45esque poll, but when it’s 50-50 it’s a “clear rogue” or “can’t be trusted”. Not having a dig here, just a general vibe. The overall picture needs to be looked at. As we sit, we’re still looking at a 52.5-47.5 at the worst for Labor, which is what many predict anyway]

    gloryconsequence – was it you who promised us some inside info on the situation in Sturt. Whoever it was seemed to be fairly confident that Pyne would get the flick..

  18. The Big Ship.

    The courage required to listen to Bolta for 10 minutes is astounding! Honestly, one minute and I am gone.

  21. One solution to soften the potential awkwardness of a joint Gillard-Rudd appearance would be for Rudd to speak only in Mandarin, through a simultaneous translator. The comedic potential is considerable.

  22. [Why would Galaxy poll Tuesday night? The polling companies are not covering themselves in glory at the moment]

    Oakes Bombshell was in their minds – Galaxy a polling for which Network again ? 🙂

  24. Why would Galaxy poll over one night? Because they want TPP margins that are “bombshells” either way. Two night polls have generally been 53-47 or 52-48 territory. The one night polls reveal the 50-50’s and the 54-45’s and get people talking.

  25. [more drivel on news radio.. some woman going “the debate was probably the turning point”…]

    Their ABC began bootstrapping that one before the Debate was even held. They were billing it in their promos as “The Debate that could Turn the Campaign”.

  26. Andrew.

    It is astounding to me that we supposedly live in a progressive country, and she is talking about religion. Truly this is embarrassing.

  27. ruawake 69

    Agree, absolutely within the MOE of that, not saying they aren’t. Suggesting what most people are predicting. Little change.

  30. That’s what we were getting worked up over???

    53-47 is pretty good. Especially considering the last week has not been that great for Gillard!

  32. Laurie Oakes has the Primaries of the Galaxy Poll:

    [Nine’s Galaxy Poll primary votes ALP 37%, Coalition 43%, Greens 13%. 19 minutes ago via web ]

  33. Don’t forget though that Galaxy produced a 50/50 at the start of the campaign when 3 other groups produced results around 55/45 or so.

  35. Pretty bizarre for SBS to think that attacking Gillard for being an atheist will cut any ice with their (very small) audience, who are mostly inner city sophisticates. Australians do not like religion in politics. Most seriously religious people are politically committed one way or the other, and none of them are going to change their votes over whether Gillard is an atheist.

  36. BH: I think these deeply personal attacks on Gillard will work in her favour. Am dismayed to see the churches wading into politics in such a manner though. Surely it doesn’t matter whether she’s religious or not, it’s about the effectiveness of her government as far as the churches are concerned.

  38. Psephos. I am still dumbfounded SBS has run a story regarding Gillard’s atheism. I was under the silly illusion that Australia was progressive and forward thinking, and respected people’s beliefs or lack thereof as a personal matter.

  39. I just wish Julia Gillard had taken the Bob Hawke position of declaring herself an agnostic rather than an atheist (she did not use the word “atheist” when asked the God question on Jon Faine’s ABC radio programme but she has accepted the term in responding to questions). The agnostic’s position is far more rational, defensible, while at the same time being a little gentler than the hardline atheist’s position.

  41. [Pebbles, Galaxy 50/50]

    Eh, Galaxy just doing what it did last election and trail the rest. Although, to its credit, it was close to the actual result on the cusp of the actual election. However the average seems to be around the 53-47 mark at the moment, so I’m inclined to believe this poll more.

  42. Why is there so much hysteria here over each individual poll and then endless analysis on what particular events occurred on the preceding day or two when the poll was taken and which factors have moved the polls? The margin of error for these polls swamps any possible movement of voter intention based on some daily issue.

    I thought poll bludgers were more knowledgeable.

  44. [I think these deeply personal attacks on Gillard will work in her favour.]

    confessions I hope so. My OH told this good little Churchy girl back in 1955 that he was an atheist. At the time my family almost had conniptions but they soon realised that he was more christianlike than many in the Church. End of story – he’s still atheist and still happy as larry.

    I find it appalling that Middleton chose to make such a big lead story of this and of course she had the supercilious Abbott commenting on it. He said that it shouldn’t hang on religion but on competence!!! and all the time nudge, nudge, wink, wink – Julia’s in the clutches of Satan.

  45. Victoria,

    I agree entirely. I’m just saying that in both rational and political terms, “agnostic” is a far more sensible position than atheist.

  48. If the Galaxy was conducted on only one night, then it will have some sampling artifacts that may affect the reliability of the results. For example, with a telephone poll, to ensure that a representative spread of ages and genders are interviewed, callbacks to younger people (who are less likely to be home to answer the call) must be carefully managed over the fieldwork, or older respondents will over-represent in the sample. One way to compensate for this bias is to ask for the ‘youngest person (or male) in the household’ to, in effect, balance up the skew to older women, who are statistically more likely to answer the phone than young people, especially young men.

    If the Galaxy was, indeed, conducted on only one night, then they probably couldn’t realistically have completed more than 600 or 700 surveys, and if the fieldwork was not properly managed, some greater than normal biases could be evident.

    I could be wrong in the case of Galaxy, but a one day methodology would generally be less reliable than a two to four day methodology
    .

  49. I just can’t stand all this rubbish being thrown at Gillard about religion. The MSM are transmogriphying into FoxNews by the minute.

  50. [I just wish Julia Gillard had taken the Bob Hawke position of declaring herself an agnostic rather than an atheist]

    “[Agnostics are] Athiests without balls”

    – Stephen Colbert in I Am America (And So Can You)

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