The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
The media pushing any poor polling results for Labor is a good thing for them. It reduces the chances of protest votes in the HoR if the punters think that they might actually elect Abbott rather than give Gillard a slap. And it reduces the underdog support which Abbott might also have gained.
confessions
[How can this be explained?]
There’s no narrative in “NSW will be a whitewash”, but there is a narrative in “WA and QLD move to the Libs”
[I don\’t understand why they haven\’t already done events together in QLD to show unity.]
Given the overgrown baby won’t even mention his leader’s name in public I highly doubt he’s going to campaign together with her.
BH@148
Nobody Tells them where they are going so as to avoid protesters – except when the Protesters are tweeted by media outlets where the PM is like Yesterday.
Confessions, those writing the story either (a) didnt notice the NSW result, despite that the SMH commissions the poll or (b) did not want to bring this to reader’s attention or (c) are saving it for a story tomorrow. Which do you think??
It’s Time 151 – true, but there is also the bandwagon factor. There will be people out there who aren’t overly happy with Labor that might have hopped off the 2007 wagon, but now that they will obviously win, might stay on the wagon to back the winner.
It’s Time,
[Ah yes, Poll Bludgers, the lynchpin of the Queensland election results and therefore the reelection of Gillard. William must be amused.]
Ok smarty pants, how about “YOU” give us all a good rundown of how Labor will absolutely smash the LNP here in QLD?
Not only is it not looking all that flash in the Qld marginals, there is always the chance that things can get worse with a good LNP campaign here. They certainly have the resources and the foot soldiers to do it.
And two good issues besides a State Labor Government totally on the nose with the electorate.
The huge factor in the polls is the massive gender gap for Gillard. Some have speculated it is women supporting the sisterhood. This must be an influence. However, Gillard has also been Labor’s arrowhead in the push against “Work Choices” for many years. Working women are the most likely to be affected by unfair dismissal and harrassment in the workforce. Gillard has built some street cred because of her performance in this area.
In a week where the confusion of the Libs about workchoices and an inability to get their story straight over this issue has dominated, then Gillard emerges the big winner.
The election seems to be a campaign to validate the change of leadership. Gillard has repectfully not assumed the Lodge and her language is all about someone seeking approval. As Hugh McKay said, “We’ve already had our chnange of Government”.
Clearly, Qld remains a problem atm for Labor, but southern Australia is surging and the WA and NSW voters are starting to get with the programme. If Qld start to come on board, August 21 is shaping up as a massacre for the Libs.
Scorps, I ask again, for the last time, what makes you think that the Labor is not going to run a strong marginals campaign in Qld??
54- 46 from a Neilson means its time for Liberal voters to start clutching at straws…
Straw 1) NSW 59-41 looks totally out of whack.Rogue. Remember the number for Victoria just after Julia Gillard knifed KR? Remember Penrith? If NSW showed up 59-46, then I think a national 54-46 is probably overstating Labor’s lead.
Scorpio, all of the marginal seat polling in Queensland so far has shown Labor in a better position than they were at this stage in the campaign in 2007. This is even without the Messiah.
[I don\’t understand why they haven\’t already done events together in QLD to show unity.]
Still only first week into a 5 week campaign. I’m sure it will happen.
[And Rudd shoudl\’ve gone out and said that if people are still annoyed that he isn\’t PM, the worst way they could express that is by making Tony Abbott Prime Minister.]
Given the vast media coverage and media-generated distraction when Rudd doesn’t say anything, it would be much more distracting if he actually said something. I suspect he might go public along those lines after the formal campaign launch.
[Also love how Grattan calls Gillard’s CC announcement not well received, with comments from a Mr Abbott. Mmmm]
Sad to read her articles nowdays. They are waffle about nothing much as is her spot with Fran Kelly. It’s mostly on this hand but then on the other. I tend to blame Kelly for it because when Grattan is on with Geraldine or someone else who is not in the press mob, she gets different questions and is very interesting.
Andrew: no idea – perhaps it was wrongly read as 59 to the Liberals?
Hopefully the SMH are saving it for tomorrow.
Squiggle, I’m fairly certain William and Possum have both discussed this before and stated that state results that look unreasonable do not necessarily effect the overall figure.
Dear Frank, twitter-master, can you twitter the link on grattan’s article to point out the 59/41 NSW result?
i cant see anywhere on the webpage where you can comment on the article
59-41 to ALP in NSW….
Bullbutter!
Andrew, the problem in Queensland is that the Courier Mail and every Tory Left of Attilla the Hun and right of Labor has been running around crying about how they can’t vote Labor because of the way Rudd was replaced. It is hard to believe that this right wing loopiness will be sustained but the old story about perception being everything still holds sway in some areas.
[Gillard live on Sky now promising if you trade-in pre-1995 car you get $2000 bonus from govt]
This is a good policy.
Meanwhile on ABC24 – Repeat of last night’s NSW edition of Stateline.
[59-41 to ALP in NSW….
Bullbutter!]
The state break downs have huge MOEs.
[Meanwhile on ABC24 – Repeat of last night’s NSW edition of Stateline.]
How could ABC24 legally broadcast Sky News\’ live interview?
Greentard@169
Cashed up Bogans with their Utes won’t like it.
Greentard@172
The ABC have their own facilities to do live crosses, if they are filming this presser, they can broadcast it live.
[The ABC have their own facilities to do live crosses, if they are filming this presser, they can broadcast it live.]
I don\’t think it is a presser, it is an interview with Sky News.
Tony Abbott talks with Joe Hockey???
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/6828397/
Sarah Palin comes clean over her last pregnancy???
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/07/the-cnn-interview-that-never-happened.html
[true, but there is also the bandwagon factor.]
There is no bandwagon effect, except in the media who want to be seen to be predicting the winner when it is patently obvious who will win, and Americans.
Squiggle,
“54- 46 from a Neilson means its time for Liberal voters to start clutching at straws…”
They’re all on the broken backed camel.
Greentard@175
No,
Sky are covering the press conference.
ABC – Slack and incompetent.
[ABC – Slack and incompetent.]
Of course! They are biased!
The cash-in car policy sounds like the UK version of it…
Greentard@180
anything you say Shows On Mark 2 🙂
[Here is the Nielsen data. Please note: the state breakdowns, while interesting, have small samples and so large margins of error; they bounce around.]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/women_love_julia/
We need to cool down and not jump ahead of ouselves about 21/8.
[Ok smarty pants, how about “YOU” give us all a good rundown of how Labor will absolutely smash the LNP here in QLD?]
OK scorpio. The good rundown is that nothing written or read on Poll Bludger will make the tiniest bit of difference to the result in Queensland, or anywhere else.
Greentard, Glen and BH, none of us doubt the large MOE for the states. But Grattan has chosen to spruik the Qld and WA results as gospel, with no mention of the NSW result. And I presume the SMH has ignore their home state.
This is selective reporting at its worst
ABC24 looks like just a re-cycle bins. not a real live 24 hrs news site
Like the car cash-in policy. Nice move by Julia.
I dont even know why they bother if the MOE is so high?
Andrew@185
No mention in the SMH version:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/women-give-gillard-the-winning-edge-20100723-10oxh.html
Hoorary, ABC24 has just announced Julia’s Clunkers for Cash policy.
scorpio, ironic that youre banging on about Qld marginals, as Gillard announces what is likely to be a very popular policy in a Qld marginal
It should be $2000 for a efficient car, or $5000 if you buy a hybrid or electric car.
FFS – The ABC 24 Talking head reporting the announcement is in CANBERRA – NOT in Qld.
Slack, Slack, slack.
Andrew,
[Scorpio, i think your caution re: the Qld marginals is appropriate. What makes you think the Labor is not aware of this and not planning targetted marginal campaigns? Do you really think they will look at the 2PP federally and say we’re home?? ]
[Again I ask Scorpio, what makes you think Labor are not going to fight hard in the Qld marginals??]
Sorry, Andrew, I am still trying to catch up on the back posts. I like to read every one on all threads.
Federal campaigns are always run from Sydney and tend to concentrate resources in the two largest States. Smaller States like Qld are usually left to carry the load on a local basis and the electorates outside the Brisbane area are often shoestring affairs getting an odd token, flying visit, by a Front Bencher and most of the local campaigning left to the local candidate.
I haven’t seen “anything” out of the ordinary in that regard this time round and that is probably because of the focus on NSW & Victoria especially with both having State elections coming up soon also.
I certainly don’t think the Labor Campaign office think they are home & hosed and having to spread resources over 150 seats as well as keep an eye on Senate votes, means that they necessarily are spread fairly thinly.
Local candidates in Qld marginals always fight with one hand tied behind their backs because there has been a dramatic drop-off in local Party Membership and support, an anti-Labor local press, and commercial TV coverage.
I have received one single flyer from my local candidate since the election was called, and that was yesterday. Am expecting at least a 5% drop in the local Labor vote here and if this remains reflected in the QLD marginals, then Labor are not going to go well here at all.
“Nothing” I have seen in the past couple of weeks will change that fact. A lot of work needs to be done in these marginals. Only my opinion though for what it is worth. Others who don’t live here may know different.
[I dont even know why they bother if the MOE is so high?]
Cos the sample at a national level is large so the MOE is low, but on a state by state basis the samples are much smaller, thus making the MOE much higher.
BH: I agree with you. But I think others are expressing curiosity at the choice of focus by news outlets.
[I dont even know why they bother if the MOE is so high?]
They have to write something. And perhaps they don’t even understand statistics so they are happy to write in ignorance.
One thing nearly all the polls appear to have picked up is about a 2% swing to Labor when the election was announced.
It seems that despite the initial ridicule, the “moving forward” slogan is working.
ABC24 just showed the Labor and Liberal / National logos on the AC Nielsen results. I\’m certain the Liberal / National logos were 3.4% larger. That\’s bias.
Andrew,
[scorpio, ironic that youre banging on about Qld marginals, as Gillard announces what is likely to be a very popular policy in a Qld marginal ]
Lots of work needed to be done here yet but it will take more than just policy announcements.
I remain optimistic and hopeful. But will go back to lurking as I have had a gutful of people using me as some sort of object of ridicule to satisfy their warped sense of humour.
scorpio, if you are not in a marginal, how can you conclude that the Qld marginal campaigning is not good for Labor
BH we ALL agree that the state figures have a high MOE. But Grattan chose to trumpet the WA and Qld ones. And in a report that mentions a much higher federal 2PP it would seem necessary to point out where the swings to Labor were