Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor; Westpoll marginal seat polls

The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.

Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.

UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,437 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor; Westpoll marginal seat polls”

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  1. [because that means I am 27 days closer to death than i am now.]
    that’s a grim prognosis – all the best “Joffa”

  2. Joffaboy
    The rules are in a state of flux. I am sure that Bludgers would accept shaking the hands of the dead as counting towards your tally. We are a broad church.

  4. It doesnt matter a bit whether the MSM political hacks given to Abbott or Gillard. What will get the attention of the punters are the worms (9 and 7) because the punters relate to the worms more than the MSM hacks. 😛

  5. [Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.)]

    And when Labor keep ‘losing their way’ and the coalition fail to learn anything then it will be five more in the next five years.

    Swan, Combet, Shorten, Burke, Arbib (when he moves to the HoR) 😉

  7. I stood next to Barry O’Farrell in the CBD – waiting to cross the street – and I’m sure he farted.

    I didn’t shake his hand.

    It was probably the wisest utterance he made that day.

  8. Hmmm lets see i met Gough..nice chap, Fraser, and some also ran opposition leaders, Bracksie, Kennet and Brumby and was briefly bonking Simon Crean’s niece….

  12. [Think people need to remeber Julia LEADS ladies votes pre Debate , and this how Labor is leading in polls]

    Amigo Ronnie, we didnt get Hillarym but got Jules and we will have Jules. and where is that coward Diog has been hiding in the pommy land.

  13. I used to pinch cherries from Tom Playford’s orchard.
    I used to walk behind Donnie Dunstan down King William St at lunch time and he wasn’t much taller than me – then I ended up working for his lawyer mate and met him often. I found him an interesting bloke but my conservative friends weren’t impressed. They were as feral about him as Downers is about Kev.
    I used to work for Phillip Ruddock’s father’s mate and found young Phillip .. I won’t say what.

    Still wish I’d shaken Chifley’s hand tho so Psephos wins.

  14. [Joffaboy – All the better for re-electing Jules for she will continue to invest in Health care meaning you can live longer.]

    Oh yes very nice reply.

    Betcha i dont see her down the local pizza shop in Altona anymore though.

    When asked a year or so back, where would she lived if she had more money, she replied “closer to the beach”(in Altona).

    Well she has just got a pretty big pay rise, maybe she can join Jezza (Carlton great for all the norther staters) on the Esplanade in Altona, starting price $1 mill + though.

    And we all still vote Labor here 😉

  15. [Newspolls out – 52-48. More realistic I would have thought.]

    Status Quo really from 2007 nothing will change that much I reckon.

  16. [Newspolls out – 52-48. More realistic I would have thought.]

    Guess what the bleating point by the commentators will be for the next week…

  19. [because that means I am 27 days closer to death than i am now.

    that’s a grim prognosis – all the best “Joffa”]

    We all will be 😉

  22. I don’t think Julia will run her cabinet like Rudd.

    Notice how we don’t even know her chief of staff’s name?
    Good riddance to the west wing wunderkinder wanna bes that infested Rudd’s office

  23. [but Annabel Crabb pointed to Tony Abbott as the standout performer]

    Ah, Annabel, still captured by the male Libs, Abbott and Turnbull. She is awfully bitchy about Gillard for some reason. Can’t be the Kev factor cos Annabel wasn’t a fan.

  25. Joffaboy – Someone the other day said to me why does Jules live in a bigger house like the ones along the beach

  28. BH, I met Don Dunstan about a couple of months before he died. Still was very sharp and charismatic. You could hardly tell he was dying. His partner was also a charmer.

    We lost a great man the day he died.

  29. [I shook hands with Howard in 2004 thems were the days I drank kool-aid and wore rose coloured glasses. I liked Howard he werent perfect and he made mistakes but he did do a good job.]

    Oh Glen — I liked you up until you said that — the man was a miserable weasel.

  30. Sorry Psephos (@ 2348) – I can only manage three, Whitlam, Hawke and Keating. Refused to shake Howard’s hand as I thought it would be hypocritical of me. Did get to shake Predent Johnson’s when he was here in the 60’s and Clinton after he had left the presidency. Aslo the Queen, when she visited Canberra in the 70’s.

    If we are going to “name-drop” my then partner had the GG (Zelman Cowan) and his family to a Passover Meal at our house and I’ve also lunched with Sir Ninian and Lady Stephen at Admiralty House (along with about 30 others!). But that was many moons ago. I think the only politician’s hand I’ve shaken this century would have been Bronwyn Bishop’s (and I’ve still got my hand attached to my arm.)

  31. OK, I will lower myself sideways to join in the oneuppersonship theme and try to join some together.

    I had the honour of meeting and conversing with Don Dunstan a fortnight before he passed away…a truly great man.

    I also had the honour of discussing flatulence with one of Ben Chifley’s relatives..not Barry O’Farrell. I also shook Paul Keating’s (when he was PM) hand – horrible. Met the the Silver Bodgie – he was so charismatic I almost fell in love with him. My grandfather counted Frank Crean amongst his closest friends and must have met him when I was a young child as we lived with my grandparents back then.

    Met and argued with many SA pollies including Rann who is a jerk and his Deputy who is a HUGE JERK. Most of the rest are pretty OK. Met most of the Libs who are bit dumb but nice. I quite like Izzy Redmond.

    I have handed out how to vote cards along side with Alex Downer’s mum, Thomas Playford Junior, Don Dunstan’s son, Janine Haines (great lady) and John Bannon’s wife (who was lovely).

    But in reality I have met enough to know people are people and there isn’t much difference between the PM and the rest apart from drive, luck and perhaps some education.

  32. It could not be said that I am uninterested in politics.

    Guess what took my primary interest?

    Masterchef.

    Speaks litres.

    Not to mention that the alternative TV is hooked to a Foxtel SD box and does not (weirdly) let me pick up the HD 24/7 news (yawn) unless, I suppose I switch it off Fox and back to the TV broadcast. Haven’t tried that yet, for fear of total stuff up.

    Taa, ABC. High Deaf.

    Now that Masterchef and AFL are finished, could risk it, I guess.

    Which does not mean to say that I did not watch the final fifteen minutes of the debate, on the other TV.

    Wow……..

  33. [Met and argued with many SA pollies including Rann who is a jerk and his Deputy who is a HUGE JERK.]

    Never had any real negative experience with Rann. He tries a bit hard though. Kevin Foley is a complete tossbag though. Mike Atkinson is actually quite a friendly person, despite his very negative reputation. Martin Hamilton-Smith is an arrogant douche, I can tell you that.

  34. TSOP
    Yes, I agree MA is very friendly, I have a huge respect for him. MHS reminds me a lot in personality to Keating…but not in intellect, or approach. I also have had nothing but bad experiences with Mr Rann. I still don’t know what he believes in…even himself? I like John Hill lots and Jay W. Watch for Jack Snelling – nice guy but smart. Will be Premier.

    Back to the Feds, I forgot I met Mandy Vanstone before she became the executioner of the employment system. She was at a university debate and I got too close to her and was overcome with cab sav fumes. She too must have been overcome as she was led away “tired and emitional” after the debate by a minder.

    I really liked Natasha Stott-Despoja but didn’t agree with her on how she did things; Martyn Evans – dead fish; Peter Duncan – very uncomfortable with him; Mike Pratt – eponymous; Mick Young – legend; Rod Sawford – full of p & w; Tony Zappia – just don’t know; Trish Draper – what was the appeal with her? Yuk! Trish Worth – very clever and warm; Kate Ellis – awesome! Gordon Bilney – the biggest village idiot in politics I have ever met; Christopher Pyne – hard worker but should stick to local issues; Chris Gallus – cunning workaholic; Steve Georganas – grinder; Andrew Southcott – zzzzz; Alex Downer – quite a character. I could go on but I encourage bloggers to meet as many pollies as possible – some interesting souls!

  35. IT I don’t like name dropping, but just to cite a few more.

    Kate Ellis is an absolute delight, as is Steve Georganis. Martyn Evans was ok (the first politician whom I worked for) a bit dull though. Agree on the Sawford assessment. We hated him (and he is a turncoat to boot) – Butler is a far better person. Rishworth is alright. Umm, you have to love Jay Weatherhill (real nice guy) wouldn’t trust John Rau though.

    In the non-Labor arena. Only briefly met Stott-Despoja but she seemed nice, Kris Hanna is quite funny. However, he seemed to go a bit over the edge in the last year or so. Tammy Jennings is a friend of mine (knew her from back when she was still Tammy Franks and a Democrat) who I’ve enjoyed many a friendly debate with. Parnell is a total sock sniffer. That prick who represented Wakefield from 04-07 – one of the biggest douches I have ever met. Dean Brown is very nice.

    I agree that one should meet as many as possible.

    Also had a quick yap with Kevin Rudd a few years back. Was very much using candidate-speak, but still a nice guy and got to shake his hand. 🙂

    Oh and Rob Lucas cut in line in front of me at Starbucks a few years back and I’ve hated him for it since 😆

  36. Regarging Julia Gillards slump in the poll.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/26/2963714.htm

    Labor strategists say their announcement last week of a citizens’ assembly on climate change has been unpopular, and they will move to fix it.

    Better green policies, stop pandering to redneck eleements in the electorate and most importantly Julia should be her self not some slogan spouting robot.

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