Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor; Westpoll marginal seat polls

The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.

Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.

UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,437 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor; Westpoll marginal seat polls”

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  1. [Tassie will most certainly be up in support. Unfortunately there are no other HoR seats to gain. However, we may be able to get a seat off the Libsโ€ฆ]

    That should read “a Senate seat from the Libs”…

  2. Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have a Patterson Market Research/Westpoll survey of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from sample of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Ruddโ€™s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.

    Very good results there ๐Ÿ™‚

    So Labor gain 2 seats ?

    Sounds good to me ๐Ÿ™‚

  3. [So Labor gain 2 seats ?]

    In terms of actual seats, they’d only gain one since they already hold Hasluck, and zero if you count notional results.

    That assumes all other things are equal.

  4. Just wish alot of marginal polls could be done in Q’ld & fringe of Sydney as thats where Govt is at great possible risk of losing , but given a 4 in front of Labour’s primarys in all polls now , some offset gains is now very possible elsewhere (but scattered) to reduce this if oz wide Polls % holds

    but bet Q’ld will be a roller coaster on nite with swings big and not consistent Its usualy been Labor’s bogeymen State for 20 years excl 2007

    however wonderful storyline of 2010 so far is Abbot is not able to add to his base

  5. Is Bob Brown serous about Climate change , or ignorant , or cynically sharking Labor primarys using popularism for self interest

    You can not reduce co2 without R E to grid feed so it can get to homes and business’s
    Julia today annoused 1 billion for that VIP infrastructure purpose , but Bob whinging Brown does not even undrstand this

    Further , Yoiu can not address reducing co2 without accepting our abundanse of coal reserves & that new coal stations will be built
    Julia announced today all new coal stations MUST hav carbon capture & storeage “readiness” fitted , but again Bob whinging Brown does not even understand this

    Yet both of these measures whilst ‘boring’ to tabloid news ar structurly important to long term co2 planning mitigaton’s success , so seems Bob Brown is a green hiritic

    And as aside , this CC galah does not get why a ‘oz wide co2 cap’ (reducing periodic) is fundamentel to reducing co2 He keeps talking nonsense of a non ROI carbon tax and just like a petrol tax on petrol Shell Oil just pass th tax (cost) on to consumer who pays cause he needs petrol , and ditto consumers who need electricity for there households to run aplianses they will pay more as its essential service Its a con , with disrespect to hansen One can NOT guarnatee reductons without a cap

    but what MSN and Sky News and ABC 00 not intersted in is information debate to public , tabloid news rates , apparently…and co-incidentelly happens to allow spinning naratives against reform party Labor , and Julia’s Assembly idea intended to bypass that

  6. Ahh the OO:

    # Australian Politics aus_politics

    Coalition flips on age policy for super: EMPLOYERS would be compelled to pay workers’ superannuation no matter how… http://bit.ly/aTPVoQ 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # Australian Politics aus_politics

    Miners launch new war on Gillard’s tax: THE mining industry will resurrect its advertising campaign against the La… http://bit.ly/aczIl1 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # Australian Politics aus_politics

    Climate change policy feels heat: TONY Abbott has attacked Julia Gillard’s planned citizens assembly as “camouflag… http://bit.ly/9THFlU 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # Australian Politics aus_politics

    Generators still wary of future: INVESTMENT in power stations is likely to remain paralysed because Julia Gillard’… http://bit.ly/dvHzOo 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # Australian Politics aus_politics

    Rudd confuses Labor campaign: KEVIN Rudd’s future role in a Labor government is confusing the ALP’s election campaign. http://bit.ly/bZ7736 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  7. We really can say that Minchin yesterday and Morrison almost every day are Great Big Nasty Fibbers. This was posted in the comments at Pure Poison
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2010/07/23/weekend-talk-thread-july-23-25/

    [โ€œIn the six months of July to December 2009:

    The number of permanent additions was 109 778, a 4.5 per cent decrease over the corresponding period for the previous year. This is largely due to a decrease in the Non-program component of settler arrivals. This comprised 72 134 settler arrivals plus 37 644 onshore grants. The 11.8 per cent decrease in settler arrivals was offset by a 13.5 per cent increase in onshore grants.

    Australiaโ€™s net permanent addition was 69 269โ€”a decrease of 9.0 per cent over the previous period.โ€

    http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/statistics/immigration-update/update-dec09.pdf%5D

  8. [For the record I was born in the UK, arrived here in 1964 and became a citizen in 1972. But I still donโ€™t like Vegemite!]

    AllanM – yummm, just had slice of toast and veggie! My OH arrived from Wales in 1954 and has only THIS YEAR decided he likes a smear of vegemite on toast. You’ve got something to ‘move forward’ to.

  9. [This is where the concept of a community consensus is sound. People need to understand the scheme, how it works and also why it is important to take action for long term benefit even if it means a small increase in prices of certain things in the short term.

    Julia could have anounced a price on carbon, and the elecorate would once again swing to the no ETS camp in the face of the โ€œgreat big new taxโ€ crap. It seems they need to be in posession of the facts first before they can make a truly informed judgement rather than jumping to emotive conclusions based on scare tactics.

    I believe the government is committed to a price on carbon, and knows that the only way it can prosecute this is to develop a sense of ownership among the communtiy.]

    Mustard Tiger@621 last thread – makes sense to me. The Coalition were quick with the GBNT theme yesterday which would just get everyone stirred up again. If the Greens are serious they’ll join in this and help the community understand why and just how much they need to pay for CC. There is no ‘holier than thou’ position to be taken with this.

  10. Why did Abbott deny the ‘famous victory’ comment and then publicly state they will win the election? It makes no sense.

  11. The punters have never listened to Abbott, and never will. And it was that as well with Rudd.

    Jules knows how to talk to the punters and they are listening. They also want to give her a chance as the first female PM. Now, it’s up to Jules to show us her capability of a PM especially in Foreign Affairs where she has plenty to learn.

  12. By the way Jules is campaigning and how badly Abbott is campaigning, i have no doubt Queensland will come in OK for Labor. Come in Spinner.

    After the Election it be Gillard Vs Turnbull. Sayonara Abbott, bugger me.

  13. On the climate change panel idea:

    The reality – which no one seems to be considering – is that the Senate stays the same for the next twelve months, regardless of what happens in the election.

    This effectively means (putting aside all the sloganeering about what ‘a true leader’ would do, because short of a military coup even a true leader’s chance of getting something through the present Senate are exceedingly dim) that there’s very little more that anyone can do about climate change at present.

    Julia couldn’t come out and say “We believe in real and urgent action on climate change. So, in a year’s time….” without being seen as hypocritical.

    So she’s taking the pragmatic approach – we’ve got a year which we basically have to spend in a holding pattern. What can we do with it?

    We haven’t had a real debate on climate change in the community, because just like it looked like we were going to have one, Howard jumped on board with an ETS. With both parties basically promising the same course of action, and agreeing that cc must be tackled, there wasn’t any reason to argue the case.

    So Julia’s various focus groups will remind people of the issues and outline the various courses of action possible.

    Given that virtually anyone who has looked seriously at all the courses of action possible have plumped for an ETS, it’d be very unlikely the community panel will be any different.

    So, just at the point where legislation can go to a new Senate, we’ll have a consensus position from an informed population which says an ETS is the way to go.

    Not ideal, but in our unideal world probably as good as it gets.

  14. Ha ha.

    Sky news just read out an email criticising them for left wing bias. John Mangos (a self confessed member of the Liberal Party) says I think not. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Desperation time for the Libs.

  15. ltep, Abbott denied the famous victory comment at first, then later admitted it. It wasnt written down, so it wasnt a real statement in the first place

  16. ruawake@24

    Ha ha.

    Sky news just read out an email criticising them for left wing bias. John Mangos (a self confessed member of the Liberal Party) says I think not.

    Desperation time for the Libs.

    I know and Tony won;t like Today’s Westpoll either, esepecially after talking up Ken Wyatt.

  17. AC 24 probably saying through gritted teeth about how Labor are in a winning lead in the latest polls ๐Ÿ™‚

    All that work on thursday amounted to zilch ๐Ÿ™‚

    I wonder how Toolman is coping while sharing the back porch with the family pet ? ๐Ÿ™‚

  18. Now Pauline Hanson wants to rejoin the Liberal Party because she doesn’t like the way Kevin Rudd was replaced. It’s fast becoming an identifying mantra in Queensland that conservative voters didn’t like the way Kevin Rudd was replaced and so now the people who have never voted Labor have a reason to never vote Labor.

  19. [The reality โ€“ which no one seems to be considering โ€“ is that the Senate stays the same for the next twelve months, regardless of what happens in the election.]

    Indeed. I made that point earlier as well.

  20. Poor Greens ๐Ÿ™‚

    George Crisp greens4curtin

    The Lib and ALP position on climate change, the biggest threat to our health this century, is completely and absolutely unacceptable. 5 minutes ago via web

  21. I thought Pauline Hanson was moving to the UK?

    On Canning, the people there should be happy with the polls. If they hold at the election, they will no longer be represented by a do-nothing, go-nowhere MP, and instead will have a go-getter representative who will very likely be a minister.

  22. As usual I listened to a few ABC radio news bulletins this morning from the comfort of flannelette sheets, two doonas, two farting dogs and a snoring cat piled on top of me.

    Again, as usual, each one started out with “The Opposition says…” with the exception of one which told us “Tony Abbott has demanded…”

    No mention at all of this Nielsen Poll.

    C’mon Psephos. Tell us again how the ABC doesn’t slant the news towards the Coalition. I like a good fairy story.

  23. ABC 24 has a show called Newsmakers where they are interviewing Susan ryan and Peter Colins – first question is about Scott Morrison’s proposal to reopen Naru.

  24. Appears the individual seat polls are all over the place….. some are clearly wrong and others don’t make sense….. maybe the result is all over the place……. WA results make sense…. suggests roughly status quo.

  25. Sly News:

    Ky Chow KyBusiness

    RT @ash_gillon: majority of females vox-popped this morning offended by suggestion vote would be swayed by gender. policies matter more. 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

  26. Another good poll for Labor; definitely some momentum now. As for WA I particularly wish Allanah McTiernan good luck in Canning; she was an excellent transport minister and got things done without becoming a despot.

    Too bad I think this momentum is undeserved after yesterday’s weak climate policy. It was the climate policy you have when you know the Liberal Party has none. I can only hope Labor suffers a big enough hit in the polls to give a damn. No standards on existing power stations (the Vic ones don’t even meet WHO standards, let alone climate change emission rules), no cap on extra coal power stations, and the only comitment to a “citizens forum” that looks as credible as John Howard’s Republic convention.

    Who are the winers out of this policy?
    – the CFMEU
    – private owners of power generation assetts
    – State governments who can keep milking the industry to prop up their own budgets
    – perversely, large mining companies

    As Ron says, there was one bit of good news – the power grid investment is good. The money is not sufficient to do all the things needed, adn I’d liek to know where it is going, but it is true in SA that we can’t get much more wind power back to Adelaide without more grid capacity. Same applies to geothermal in NE of this state and Qld. the greens woudl be showing technical ignorance to oppose that.

    Still, my overall suggestion for Labor’s new slogan would be:

    “No coal mine was harmed in the making of this climate policy”.

  27. Yes Frank, a less than subtle suggestion creeping in the MSM including Grattan in The Age that Gillard is only winning because of the female vote, and females are only voting for her because she is a female. So I guess she is less legitimate.

    Found the headlines and reporting of this poll pretty subdued given a shift from 52/48 to 54/46.

    So Gillard poll-wise is where Rudd was at the start of the 2007 campaign.

  28. [The money is not sufficient to do all the things needed, adn Iโ€™d liek to know where it is going, but it is true in SA that we canโ€™t get much more wind power back to Adelaide without more grid capacity. ]
    Good question. Will the extra grid connections only allow brown coal power to be distributed more widely and extend their economic life?

  29. We have now had a Newspoll, 2 Morgans, an Essential, and now a Neilsen that all suggest last Sunday\’s 50/50 Galaxy was wrong.

  30. So Gillard is where Rudd was except
    1. Howard was the incumbent, which seemed to contribute to the late swing to him
    2. Howard had better PPM and satisfaction ratings than Abbott, and was a better campaigner
    3. Howard happy to roll out the pork but Abbott has boxed himself in with promising a bigger surplus. Given Labor has promised cuts to fund spending, he doesnt have much to play with

    I think the signs are bad for Abbott

  31. [Queensland Coalition MPs support net plan Tony Abbott wants to dump]
    ttp://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/queensland-coalition-mps-support-net-plan-tony-abbott-wants-to-dump/story-fn5z3z83-1225896284824
    Newsradio giving this item a mention.

    Labor should really push the NBN out in the regional electorates. It’s obviously hurting LNP.

  32. Interesting that people were suggesting it was a mistake for Gillard to call the election for August 21, one of the earliest dates possible to her. If this trend continues then you’d have to say she guaged the electorate perfectly.

  33. William writes (my emphasis):

    [The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago.]

    The ABC reports (thanks Frank):

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963056.htm

    [New poll shows Labor edging Coalition ]

    Labor had already “edged the Coalition” in the previous Nielsen poll, and with this poll they are “edging” the Coalition even more.

    Talk about reporting through gritted teeth! It’s their ABC!

  34. [We have now had a Newspoll, 2 Morgans, an Essential, and now a Neilsen that all suggest last Sunday\โ€™s 50/50 Galaxy was wrong.]

    Everyone knew that all along, deep down. It’s pretty obvious that it was a rush-job poll that was done when most of the voters they were able to reach were over 35.

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