The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
No. Crass is that show and the commercials for it…
[would agree that what Abbott said about the economy (debt) and boat arrivals was utter rubbish. ]
but then you said
,[ but frankly, so did Abbott]
so you contradicted your self.
the people are not silly either you can say things in a nice way when you want to but they dont have to be correct
[ zoned out and I am a political tragic.
This debate will have very little effect on the election…]
Pebbles – I think most people zoned out because as Hugh MacKay writes, they’ve virtually made up their minds.
Yesterday Abbott said the 2007 election was a mistake and voters should realise this. TOday he says he accepts the verdict of 2007 on WC. WHEN is someone going to ask him about the mandate on CC. Go Kerry!
Think people need to remeber Julia LEADS ladies votes pre Debate , and this how Labor is leading in polls
she was no aggro for a reason , as thats not Ladies way (and Lady worms approved of that and of her)….whereas attack adds on Abbott over workchoises will be Labor Party and not Julia’s lips , and that will swing votes & hold current ladies vote aproval that WAS pre debate , and DURING Debate by being non aggro…some of ypou guys want a aggro Julia gladator
OK, thanks for that Boerwar.
[ made Billiions by importing cheap taiwanese parts and selling them to Australians at ridiculous mark ups ]
So the problem is that he made billions, the cheap parts were Taiwanese or he put big mark-ups on them and people bought them?
[Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.)
Bet you never thought you would get to shake hands with the first lady pm in your working life.
Steve, they did briefly, Nelson and Turnbull, but the fundies on the right have staged one last charge, do or die style, remember they are driven by fervor and zeal so will not give up easily. They need to be killed off, not simply re-educated, hence the “voters got it wrong sentiment”. Obviously just my humble opinion.
#2345 Darren
And compared to Glen at the last election 🙂
[I’m surprised the Rudd martyr cult haven’t shown up yet to claim the Rudd would’ve kicked butt tonight and brought the polls up to a 67-33 lead…]
i think rudd would of handled it exactly the same so there was no negative headlines.
thats all we had to do really and then there is nothing to talk about tomorrow.
Completely under the radar have been some of the changes that Labor has put into place to restrain some of the worst excesses of the so-called financial advice industry. I trust they do some further work on super. There is some great low-hanging fruit that will, quite simply, end up in transferring funds from the spivs to the superannuants.
[So the problem is that he made billions, the cheap parts were Taiwanese or he put big mark-ups on them and people bought them?]
The problem is not the above. The problem is that after selling his business (AG and Dick Smith electronics) he then buys up food manufacturers and then decides that its Australian-made or bust.
[Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.]
Well I shared a pizza in Pier St Altona with our first female PM – beat that 😉
(I was actually on another table and it was three years ago, but hey, dont let facts get in the way of a good story)
[Psephos
Posted Sunday, July 25, 2010 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.)]
That is not a good reason to get rid of Rudd.
Yes true, Glen 2.0 is an improvement on the unhinged 1.0 version in 2007
[Ron
Posted Sunday, July 25, 2010 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
Think people need to remeber Julia LEADS ladies votes pre Debate , and this how Labor is leading in polls
she was no aggro for a reason , as thats not Ladies way (and Lady worms approved of that and of her)….whereas attack adds on Abbott over workchoises will]
Ron you must have a great understanding of what we girls expect from each other.
good common sence and keeping it professional.
andrew@2354
[Yesterday Abbott said the 2007 election was a mistake and voters should realise this. TOday he says he accepts the verdict of 2007 on WC. WHEN is someone going to ask him about the mandate on CC. Go Kerry!]
Absolutely – couldn’t agree more.
[i think rudd would of handled it exactly the same so there was no negative headlines.
thats all we had to do really and then there is nothing to talk about tomorrow]
Yep. Julia can get back on message now, without a pointless distraction.
Clever move by her to openly choose to refrain from the “moving forward” lines tonight. Robs the commentariat of a talking point to use… (“She was all slogans, no substance!”)
Rudd v Nelson
Rudd v Turnbull
Rudd v Abbott
Gillard v Abbott
Still reckon Tarago would have gone out all guns blazing with cans of baked beans for glory in a debate with Rudd god bless him 🙂
Turnbull well a lot of macho grandioso style and bravado but very little substance against Rudd
Abbott hhmmmm well could have got nasty re: given GBNT on mining and climate change and Abbott being slammed by Rudd for wanting to bring back workchoices.
Just for our fun, when is Abbott going on Communist Kerry’s 7:30 report land?
yep pebbles julia new what she was doing.
nite all
But the voters did get it wrong last time and forgot all about the Right to rule mentality of the Libs, the brilliance of their economic management and the wonders of workplace reform. No need for the Libs to develop policy when the next election can give the voters a chance to get it right.
Unless something catastrophic happens my prediction is Labor will win the election with a slightly increased majority and the Greens will hold the BOP in the senate. Lets hope the next parliament is better than the previous one.
Closest I have got is to shake hands with the former GOC french armed forces.
According to quelqu’uns des my mates, anciens de la deuxieme division blinde Le Clerc, he may one day become le President. But I suspect that is a very long shot.
In any case, I would prefer to have shaken the hands of five Labor PMs.
Debate in a nutshell.
Gillard – “We werent that bad cmon give us another try cos we werent ready for the first go…and like srsly Tony would take us backwards to wrostchoices”
Tony – “Vote for us cos the government is crap but we havent got any policies…oh did I tell you how bad the government is?”
I shook hands with Neville Wran.
Boerwar@2375
Well I shook Alan Carpenter’s Hand at the 2008 WA State Election ALP Campaign Launch – got my mug on TV – pity he lost 🙁
Glen – I think its time you unload some German
I’m about to get on a plane, so I won’t respond quickly to any polls that happen to hit us shortly (unless it’s very soon),
Have to think that Gillard trumped Abbott on the immigration issue as Abbotts 170,000 target seems to be the current projection. Managing to blame the immigration rorts over the last cpl of years on the Howard govt was a big winner as well.
cheers
I shook hands with Howard in 2004 thems were the days I drank kool-aid and wore rose coloured glasses. I liked Howard he werent perfect and he made mistakes but he did do a good job.
No, we get enough undergraduate German on here!
I have met Malcolm Turnbull. He really knew how to work a room. Amazing charisma.
Peter Debnam was also there but basically he was a ghost in the corner.
Frank
bad luck. the guy I was talking about got the sack when an infantryman at a public military exhibition sprayed the crowd with a live ammo. Several dozen injured. None killed. But Sarkozy demanded, and got, this chap’s head on a platter.
I have met four Victorian Premiers
John Cain Jr
Jeff Kennett
Steve Bracks
John Brumby
Are ministers and their shadows going to have debates?
Wm
Are you expecting newspoll tonight?
[Are ministers and their shadows going to have debates?]
What about AS and Food costs? LOL
Policy free elections dont make good debates.
Scullin was my sister-in-laws great grandfather.
Doe that count?
It has been quiet on the national polling front.
This campaign seems to be going very slowly.
gee can we just have polling day
Joffaboy
Only if you shook his hand.
Well, the only PM I have ever even seen was Howard and that was during the campaign in 2007 when I was at a protest rally. Other than that, Chifleys grave is the closest I have come to a PM.
[gee can we just have polling day]
NO.
because that means I am 27 days closer to death than i am now.
I want to see Roxon and Dutton go mano-a-mano
[Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.)]
I forgot Frank Forde who died in 1983.
[Scullin was my sister-in-laws great grandfather.
Doe that count?]
Only if you shook hands with him – he died in 1953.
[Joffaboy
Only if you shook his hand.]
Haven’t even shaken her hand.
Afraid shakung Scullins hand would have a bit of a deadfish cold touch to it nowdays, a bit like shaking Paul Keatings hand (wasn’t going to mention that, because i still get chills when i think about Pauls touch)
Laocoon
I don’t think it could be done. Thinking about Dutton, cruelty to children is a criminal offence.
I stood next to Barry O’Farrell in the CBD – waiting to cross the street – and I’m sure he farted.
I didn’t shake his hand.
Joffaboy – All the better for re-electing Jules for she will continue to invest in Health care meaning you can live longer.